Max JTHJ Can collect – Bollywood’s Various Niches And Their Market Size
danish | November 8, 2012, 2:28 PM | 26 comments | 0 views

once upon a time its was a simple 3 tier system. there was the mainstream bollywood film, mainly socials and romances that cornered 70-80% of the business (raj kapoor’s movies to yash chopra ones) and there was the slightly more serious, more sophisticated cinema (of say bimal roy to shyam benegal) that had a smaller share of the pie. but the biggest success was reserved for the ‘universally acclaimed films’ (mughal e aazam, mother india, kismat) catering to the sensibilities of both, or may be all’ kinds of audiences. there was the rare stunt genre film in between but they started emerging as a ‘different niche market’ not earlier than the 60s. the second thrust came wth the arrival of the multiplexes in the late 90s and since then the market has been getting so fragmented that we haven’t had a ‘universal hit’ for 18 years now.

so here are the top 10 niche markets of bollywod and their approximate size.

10. the indian english film/crossover film – the fact that it actually never managed to cross over (in the sense that no foreigners bothered to watch them, and even the NRI and south asians stuck to watching sharukh khan’s NRI dramas) ensured that this market has remained stuck at under a crore. hardly any films are being made n the category (the last i can recall is mixed doubles by rajat kapoor starring konkona, ranbeer and koel purie.) some say it started with ‘English august’ in 1997, others insist it was way back with merchant ivory movies like ‘siddhartha’ and ‘heat and dust’ but the fact remain that the ‘indian english film’ is a market that has failed to grow beyond 1 crore despite the advent of multiplexes.

9. the Z grade sex flick – you may not know it exists but the ‘miniscule’ budgetted Z grade sex-thriller or even sex-social ( in the end they tell u, in a 3 idiots style pedagogy session, that its wrong to have sex, qualifying it as ‘educational’) are a market by themselves. in a country where television has no sex, internet has 10% penetration and DVD a little higher, these films are a steady stream of revenue for anonymous producers and directors and can make upt 3 crores, if really ‘appreciated’ by its target audience. the last classic in the genre – well – sheela ki jawaani shot in 7 days to coincide with the release of tees maar khan. and for all you know, it might have been a bigger ROI success than the farah khan caper.

8. the ‘real’ art/parellel/serious cinema – it pains my heart to see this niche so low in the countdown but the fact remains that the real ‘high art’ product, s0 rare in bollywood has been unable to find bigger audiences. what has grown instead is the pseudo-art movie (that are much higher in the countdown and hence we will come to them much later) while the ‘genuine’ ones have not even been able to reach the 5 cr mark. ( boi disparagingly stated in their ‘you asked it’ coloumn that ‘hazaaron khwahishein aisi was a 50 lakh disaster) and maqbool did no better. ‘bandit queen had done roughly 10 cr in 1996 that inflation adjusted wud be quite a lot today but that was more of an exception. as it is there are so few of them ( i mean the ‘genuine’ art movies) and the limited market ensures that they remain like that.

7. the horror movie – this one has staged a grand comeback in the last two years. this niche was roaring through the 70s and the 80s but went into oblivion with the arrival of multiplexes. the rare resurgence (bhoot) had to be with the approval of multiplex audiences which was more ‘sensibilities’ based rather than ‘the ‘thrill/horror quotient’ based. but vikram bhatt seems to have changed that single handedly (the new ramsay?) so much so that even shiny ahuja’s ghost wasnt a washout but commission earner.

6. the pseudo art movie – this new niche market has been taking long strides with the help of a ‘half intelligent’ urban middle class that has pretensions to the serious/intelligent cinema but don’t have a taste for the hardcore realizm and in depth socio-political statements that the serious art films make. so they invented a new kind of film that takes the worst elements of commercial cinema, unreal situations,(the whole of vicky donor) unreal characters (the blue painted guy in gulaal) , unreal treatment (the whole of delhi belly) and unreal settings (the prostitute’s den in DEV D, so also the club with break dancers) and mix them with the worst elements of art cinema (slow pace,ugly faces) and finally lo and behold – the pseudo intellectuals recipe for perfect entertainment is ready. produced and directed mainly by junkies (though i have nothing against recreational drug use) and i suspect mostly consumed by them, these films revel in toilet humour, misogyny and worse – like an average Eminem song. its not too difficult to see that this is personally my most hated genre but starting with Dev d at 10 cr plus this genre has managed to be at least 30 cr strong today with an occasional ‘delhi belly’ crossing 50, supported by a mainstream star. rest, from Dev D to vicky donor to wasseypur have not done too badly either. surprisingly the rare gem in the genre ‘pyaar ka panchnaama’ did just 15 cr but then who am i to decide the ‘rare gem’ in a genre i dont even care for. for most of them what works is the ‘close up shot of the poop’ in delhi belly – and so be it.

5. the multiplex movie – this one focuses on urban youth, (i mean te ‘normal’ urban youth) in delhi, mumbai, banglore, mysore and chadigarh apart from other big towns and usually comes up with clean entertainers. the only condition – a poor man must not be even seen walking in the background in any frame. this market remained stuck at 80 cr since 2007/2008 but has slowly touched 100 cr today. zindagi na milegi dobara was perhaps the film that ensured this one wasnt dead and now ‘barfi’ seems to have given it a new lease of life. 100 cr is not bad after all considering this niche caters to a very small segment (with big purchasing power) and since 100 cr has become such a ‘psychological barrier point’. and even a ‘starless’ ‘student of the year’ has crossed 60 cr and thats a great thing for this niche.

4. the single screen entertainer – singham did 100 cr in 2011, rowdy rathore did 130 this year. by that calculation this seems to be the fastest grwoing niche at 30% in a year. son of sardar will decide how much it grows further. despite the name i have given it, this one gets a lot of sustenance from multiplexes also. may be it caters to the SS viewer in the novue – riches

3. the multiplex big ticket event film – mainly the films starring the three khans, this one touched its peak with 3 idiots and as ‘ek tha tiger’ showed, has remained stuck at 200 cr point. however a highly appreciated film in this niche (like 3 idiots) can any day cross 250 cr (wich is the same as the inflation adjusted 3 idtots’ 202 cr at 8% for 3 years, showing this one is not growing much) . all hopes are on sharukh khan and his ‘jab tak hai jaan’ as this niche also has additional streams of marketing revenues riding on its back like brand tie ups, merchandising etc, a source of income no other niche seems to have.

in any case this shows the highest potential for JTHJ to collect is 250 cr, that is if its appreciated as much as 3 idiots. the lowest offcourse can be ra1’s 114 cr or don 2’s 107 cr and may be even lower if the ‘law of diminishing returns sets inn.

2. the SS big ticket event film – it could also be called ‘the salman khan film’. yes its become a niche in itself, solely on the basis of star power of one man and dabangg 2 will show wat the market size for this one is going to be. in my view (and yakuza wud agree happily) the optimum is close to 300 cr. alas only one man ‘owns’ this niche and considering he also ‘owns 1/3rd stake in the previous niche we discussed, that says quite a lot about him. even this one gets a huge share of its revenues from multiplexes – nomenclature be damned – but is mainly sustained by single screen audiences. bodyguard did close to 150 cr but that was roughly 15 months back. today 300 cr definitely as bodyguard didnt even touch the optimum. does that make this one the fastest growing niche – well we will wait to see as unlike no 4 – the single screen entertainer’ – its maximum potential needs to be touched 1st.

1. the universal hit – this is the niche to which the greatest films in bollywood belong to. kismat, mother india, mughal e aazam, sholay, maine pyaar kiya, hum aapke hain kaun. sadly for 18 years there has not been a single film that has been so universally appreciated since ‘hum aapke hain kaun’ in 1994. 3 idiots, a pedagogical comedy about educational reforms was after all a ‘multiplex movie (though comedy did bring a lot of footfall in SS but that we have seen happening in in the last 4 niches) and gadar (2001) was not liked by a section of the audiences at all – for its xenophobic theme, jingoistic tone, and crude sensibilities. even ‘dilwale dulhaniya le jaaynege’ did not work in some markets in the interiors of india. however a universally appreciated film in today’s scenario (and it cud be from any niche as history has shown though ‘socials’ have more chances) cud easily do anywhere between 350 cr to 500 cr rupees.

For now lets wait and watch!

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  1. danish

    Wud love to see that 500 cr film.

    will it be some newcomer’s film (like maine pyaar kiya) or with established stars (like mugha e aazam hum aapke hain kaun and sholay) we have to wait and watch.

    however if a serious salman khan film with strong social comment, egalitarian values and great aesthetics does it, it will be a world record. 3 of them out of 7!

  2. Tango

    Good post. Expecting more such posts, at least once a week.

    Let me remind of a small incident.

    When K3G released and netted 13.60 crore and there was asense of unbelief, koi picture itna kar sakti hai ek week mein ?

    When I asked Komal Nahta if any film can cross this, he said “The capacity of 21 crore imax is there. Don’t be surprised if film gets to 20 crore in one week soon!”

    And now it all seems like the above conversation was in stone age!

  3. suprabh

    Absolutely Bogus post. Just doesn’t make sense except the starting couple of points…Its more bogus because of the fact that it was written only to highlight 2 or 3 supposed niches of bollywood which exist in the mind of the writer…Its a pity that the success (small or big) of some films , the support (small or big) to a certain brand of cinema and the criticism (small or big) to another brand of cinema makes such a big blow at the psyche of the writers such as of this article that they keep on coming up with articles like these which although do no have any substance but do well to reassure them and in a way asks the usual suspects to come and display herd mentality .

    My first and last comment on this post.

  4. danish

    @action – thanx.

    @tango – thanx so much. come to think of it the market has grwon roughly 4-5 times since K3G. mainly becoz of multiplex invasion (1997-2009) and then the resurgence of the new, renovated single screen.

    as for piracy etc, i think the maximum damage they cud do is done and happy days are here again for cinema.

    @suprabh – i wish…..

    1. u had pointed out specifically wat u disagree with.

    2. not made this comment into a personal diatribe.

    3. not tried to close the conversation after a one sided diatribe by saying this is ur last comment.

    4. HAHK ka inflation adjusted cross karke batao.

  5. Beld

    Quite enjoyed this post – tho to me lot of these can be collapsed – eg 2 and 4. I dont think Salman is that big a difference in the single screen – he is definitely the top crowd puller – but I think in single screen – the kind of film itself pulls audience – look at RR as an example – made as much as all Salman movies save for ETT. Is there anyway to compare SS vs Multiplex numbers for these movies? If not – it will be just conjecture

    Sup – kya ho gaya tere ko – you are fighting with everyone. You left Tanqueed in a huff, you are fighting with me, now you are calling the only proper post from Danish as a bogus post….koi luv chakkar hai kya :D

  6. Beld

    btw danish – dont agree with some of the terms you use. Multiplex movie is not targeted at youth – you used the wrong example in SOTY – you cannot compare the audience of SOTY to that of ZNMD. I think it would probably be better to term the audience as urban / educated for multiplex. Shalu may call this as snobbish ;-) … but it is true. English Vinglish would also fall into that category – No One killed Jessica – etc etc. I think to me this is the best category of Hindi movies today – entertaining and more or less realistic

  7. danish

    @beld – thanx so much!

    but i think ur rowdy rathore example itself explains the situation. both RR and dabangg are almost similarly trended films yet inflation adjusted dabangg this year wud have been (the standard 8% per year) roughly 165 cr. thats almost 25-30% above rowdy rathore. thats huge.

    the rough data on SS vs MP is publisheed on bOI and other sites occasionally. that is enuff to ensure there is some meat to it than mere conjecture.

    also if 3 (the big ticket multiplex event film) is valid, why isnt 2 (the big ticket SS event film)? especially since 4 has case studies already (if not 2)

    infact both ur objectiosn are to the estimated size of the SS niches. any reasons?

  8. danish

    @beld – the idea was never to say that all multiplex audiences are youth – or non serious. infact there is a clear difference between my response to the niche no 6 and 5. i am quite appreciative of films like zindagi na milegi dobara, and even student of the year. (even though i havent watched barfi, if i like it, i will say it)

    in any case the ‘market’ defines youth as between 16-44 (the ppl, mainly men with high purchasing power and into ‘impulsive buying’) and i am sure this covers the core audiences for zindagi na milegi dobara. unless u point out a multiplex film mainly patronized by 45+.

  9. Gorilla

    @Danish….Dabangg releasing on a holiday could score only 25% more in inflation adjusted figures of Rowdy Rathore is same as saying that a holiday release of RR would have grossed closed to 170 cr.
    Pls stop using flawed logic.

  10. rowdy rathor

    .Dabangg releasing on a holiday could score only 25% more in inflation adjusted figures of Rowdy Rathore is same as saying that a holiday release of RR would have grossed closed to 170 cr.
    Pls stop using flawed logic.

    very true……but danish will never gonna accept this truth.

  11. RJ

    Exactly had RR released on a holiday it would ve grossed more..almost equal to inflation adjusted Dabangg collections.

  12. rockie_Dabhangg2

    Good writeup Danish bhai … :)

    I really like one thing about your writeups is “Clearity Of Thoughts”.
    I like reading “logical” debates between you and others.

    Okay I completely agree with 5 to 10, but have some different thoughts on 2,3 and 4.

    I think 2 and 4 is essentially the same just that those movies did not release on holiday. Also there is lot of overlap in 2-3 and 3-4.

    But wholeheartedly agree with you again on nbr 1.

  13. danish

    @gorilla – i suggest u stop using falsehoods and wrong facts.

    dabangg did not release ona holiday. in fact it released in ramzan, the last day of raman, actually the last friday of ramzan when muslims strictly pray and it was more of a negative for dabangg than positive.

    now u wud say that next day was eid. but the answer is

    1. it was saturday which is a holiday in most parts of the country anyways.

    2. dabangg’s business pattern did not suggest any eid bonanza. dabangg’s highest day was not saturday eid, but the sunday which is the case for every movie, including rowdy rathore.

    3. i have always manitained that a film will be watched by the number of ppl who are wanting to, release size, holidays etc will just change the speed of collections. dabangg, released without any holiday, any post-ipl advantage did 25-30% more than rowdy (which released post ipl but in my opinion that doesnt make much of a diffe) and was an ATBB.

    @ROWDY RATHORE – Truth kya hai khud hi dekh lo. dabangg did not release on a holiday, insted it released with the detterrent of last day of ramzan and still broke 3 idiots 1st day record with a cr, though 3 idiots had released on christmas holiday. so here goes ur holiday theory.

  14. danish

    @rafee – thanx dude!

    @RJ – let me repeat again, dabangg did not release on a holiday, it released in ramzan, the last friday which is more of a negative. and dabangg’s highest business was 1st sunday, like any film. the pattern was similar to all movies


    except that each day was higher. till tuesday even higher than 3 idiots.

    @rockie – thanx yaar!

    and i agree with you that there is an overlap between 2 and 4 but the fact is that the gap between ‘a single screen entertainer’ and a ‘salman starrer singel screen entertainer’ is getting so huge that its almost become a given that the latter will do much higher business and hence has become a different niche in itself.

    and i wud give it to suprabh here. one of the reasons i wrote this post was to highlight this fact.

    off course the other reason was to talk about JTHJ’s lifetime business possibilties but most ppl seem to have missed it. may be i shud include it in the title.

    again rockie – the overlap with niche no 3 appears to be there becoz of the presence of salman khan in it. just imagine. if there were no ek tha tiger then it wud not have been difficult to put 3 idiots, ra1, don2, jthj in one category and dabangg, ready, bodyguard, dabangg2 in another. but with tiger salman has changed the game again, as he always does.

    as for ur agreeing on niche 1, thanx again. and lets all wait for that universal hit, that great piece of cinema, that exhilarating moment in bollywood history that we all love it for.


    @Danish – nice post. Have nothing to say coz all the things have been answered nicely by u.

    I repeat, good post.

    Let’s wait and see when and who give that universal hit, though I hope we may get it by this year end !!!

  16. Zubair

    Danish bhai superb post and 101% agree with u on niche 4.

  17. danish – thanx!

    and if u are hoping for ‘that universal hit’ by the end of this year, r u hinting at the same film i am thinking?

    @zubair – thanx dude!

  18. Naveed_Dabangg2

    Enjoyed reading this danish

    And I am quite confident that the universal hit could come this year in DABANGG 2 :)

  19. Gorilla

    Danish, check ur facts. Dabangg released on Sep 10 , 2011 which was Eid holiday all over India. It was A declared restricted holiday and most of the major cities in north, west and south India were on holiday. I myself remember watching Dabangg first day as it was a holiday for me in Bangalore.

  20. Gorilla

    Coming to Jab tak hai Jaan…this is the only potential universal hit types this year.

  21. Serenzy

    Lovely lovely Post,… I Just Love your Categories wala Post where you Talk abt B’wood ryt from Kismet,Rattan to 3I,Dabangg…

    Nothing to Add from My Side.

  22. danish

    @naveed – tumhaare munh mein ghee shakkar!

    @gorilla – though i never use the ‘religion card’ still in this matter i can say that since i come from muslim background, there are more chances of me knowing wen eid was ratrher than you.

    eid was on saturday and on friday all my family was in school, college and office including my cousins. there was no holiday on friday. in fact the reason i cud not watch dabangg on friday was that there was no holiday and friday late night was avoided ass many guests come in the morning itself on eid.

  23. danish

    @gorilla – as for jab tak hai jaan how can an NRI romance become the ‘universal hit’ today wen DDLJ the biggest in the category cud not be the universal hit in 1995? nor any of SRK’s various NRI films thru the multiplex revolution.

    but since urban multiplexes reacted in a less prejudiced manner to dabangg, i wud like to think that dabangg 2 has the chances more than any other film.

    @serenzy – thanx serenzy!

    waise tumhaare srk ki category ko bhi 250 cr ka maxmum potential diya hai. ab dekehin kitna kamaatyi hai.


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