My views and beliefs on the trending theory
I have nothing against the trending theory, though I have never followed it or endorsed it, ever! The reason for it is that by me it is no longer relevant. Yes if there are 25 clean BIG hits in a year today about 3-4 trend well.
Let me elaborate why I think so! I humbly request all the respected members to lend me their ears (as Shakespear said) and hear me out.
Before Fiat and Ambassador (still around but mostly in the leftist West Bengal for obvious reasons) were the best cars but no longer. After that, Bajaj made the best scooters, but the company no longer makes scooters as it has shifted to mobikes, coming to terms with the changing times. Today Honda is the highest seller in the scooter sector!
Also Yezdi made the most trendy mobikes (with double silencer/carburettor) but that too has shut shop.
But then there are fans of trending theory, Fiat & Ambassador and Bajaj scooters and Yezdi motorcycles!
I talk to people who are at the helm of affairs in the cinema industry and I have hardly run into anyone who takes/treats trending/attrition theory like holy grail!
But those who want to, I respect their choice. After all my 85 year Grandma (and I am not joking!) still thinks that Bal Jeevan Ghutti (and not all the vaccinations) is an elixir for the newborn and we do not challenge her!
We let her enjoy in her world of fantasy.
For the neo members, in no way is this post against any new member (read Shalu ji, I respect her gentle and prim and proper manners on NG) and I have had these debates with followers of trending/attrition theory for about 7-8 years now!
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0 
0Again… U r overlooking the basic logic… With the number of screens that are there today..despite competition… Small movies can maintain certain number of shows and earn at low levels and thus survive…simply becoz fr them survival is not earning 30 crore plus second weeks…its 10… But with increasing competition…it is difficult to maintain collections at high levels.. Which big films are expected to do acc to your trending theory… Tht much amount is difficult and not logically possible always with competition ..
Just take two cases…
1. What would have been the collection of 3idiots had dabaang released next week??(the wom and appreciation would be the same obv mind you)…and also how much dabaang would have collected having competition from 3idiots?
2. Dont you think all the best would have collected much more had it not clashed with blue??
The above two questions would tell you that its not posssible to have a rigid theory and overlook all factors affecting it by simply saying tht a film would survive no matter what if its good…obv a bad film woild totally crash..but competition would affect a good film no matter what…
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0 0Kunal, You are not getting the point. Without competition from Blue, All the Best would have earned more but trended similarly. 3 Idiots trending would not have seen much difference even if Dabangg released the next week – a liked film plays for a longer time and makes up for the competition. It is only the rejected films that get majorly affected by competition – big or small.
Didn’t TZP and Welcome both trended fabulously and became blockbusters despite releasing the same day?
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4 0I don’t know anything about anything except that none of the following films will be remembered 10 years down the line (and by remember I mean, remember for its entertainment value not some garbage reason):
1) ETT (except Salman fanatics)
2)Rowdy Rathore (except akki fanatics)
3)Housefull 2 (except sajid khan)
4)Bodyguard (except shera)
5) Ready (except rockie_c83)
6)Dabangg (yes you read it right. even though I loved it, I am sure no one is going to remember it except for salman fans)
7)Wanted (except aryan29 and aryan29 and aryan 29)
8)Ra.one (except Fasel)
9)RNBDJ (except harish and milind)
10)Singh is Kingg (No one except akki fans– I guess not even them)
11) Dhoom 2 (except deadmanwalking)
12) Mausam (except Shalu)
13) Aarakshan (except Tera Baap)
14 ) Pappu can’t dance saala (except me)-
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0 0hahah suprabh your comments are getting funnier and funnier with each day. keep it up
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1 1You are BANG ON …. ETT, BG, Dabangg, Ready, Wanted all these movies will only be remembered by Salman fans 10 yrs down the line.
However the number of Salman fans will be 90% of India’s population, so its all good.
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0 0London dreams and billu and yuvraj to some extent (except me)
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0 0and jhoom barabar jhoom (Except Lambu)
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0 0Again,
” Dog Tail Will Never Become Straight “-
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1 0except for doberman
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1 0Trending theory(Except shalu)
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0 0Shalu ji
“By good films I don’t mean issue-based films – I mean engaging or entertaining films. Those that don’t follow a set formula of getting audience into theatres in the opening weekend and to hell with what happens after that.”
The definition of good cinema varies, what may be good for you may be bad for someone else!
Take the case of SRK, My Name Is Khan trended badly, but is a milestone film in SRK’s career, as per my discussion with non SRK fans. When we talk about SRK say 10-20 years later, this film will be remembered.
On the contrary the Don remake (the first part) is a movie that trended beautifully, but ppl just hated it. No one will talk of this film when SRK will be discussed 10-20 years later.
Mehul Kumar’s remake of Krantiveer was one of the most well trending movies, but is it a classic?
Much in the same way DOR is by me Nagesh’s best film, but how did it trend? So is it a bad film?
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1 0Well…if u thnk dabang releasing next week wouldnt have affected 3idiots… I have nothing to say…as again…u r being just rigid and nt willing to accept things..and just looking at things from one sided…various factors affect…but frget it… Remain happy and disillusioned
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0 0Its a treadmill theory, trying get as much fame as one can get with no logic whatsoever but standing against all odds just to be in limelight… My last comment on this treadmill theory. hope others too stop giving damn abt this theory…
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0 0Its a treadmill theory, trying to get as much fame as one can get with no logic whatsoever but standing against all odds just to be in limelight… My last comment on this treadmill theory. hope others too stop giving damn abt this theory…
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0 0only oldies stuck in the 70s and 80s follow trending theory.
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0 1SHALU:
“The problem is not of small or big budget, the problem is that film-makers think – lets take the biggest star of the country, book 3,500+ theatres and release the film on a long holiday weekend. Even if the film is rejected, it will still make close to 200 cr. ”
OMG … 200cr to aise bol diya jaise ghar mei paise chaapne ki machine ho.
How many movies till date have earned close to 200cr?? Only 2.
Forget 200, how many movies have crossed 140cr?? Only 4.———
BTW… when is Shahid Kapoor getting his first 50cr movie??
Forget 50 … uska to max 40cr hai … jo aaj ka single day potential hai.
New boys like Aayushmaan and Arjun Kapoor have also overtaken him in their first movies.
Heck even FLOP STAR like Tushar Kapoor movies are doing more than 45cr (Kya Super Kool…).Yaha khud ke fav star ke opening, trending sabhi ke laale hai … baat karte hai 200cr ki …
200cr kabhi khaab mei bhi nahi dekhe honge Shahid ne …Doosro ki movies ko flop bolne se pehle apne fav star ke “CHAWANNI ATTAHNNI ” collections to dekh lete.
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1 1Very very well said Suprabh! None of these movies will be remembered in the long term, except maybe Dabangg, because it really was a different and memorable performance by the usually repetitive Sallu.
Movies remembered down the line can only be known down the line i.e. when you look back
Someone gave the great example of Andaz Apna Apna. Or even movies like DDLJ, HAHK, Sholay, Deewaar. Nobody knows for sure what these movies were regarded as back when they released. They say Sholay had a slow start. HAHK was a limited release. AAA was rejected on day one. DDLJ flopped in Bihar. I say “they say” coz I did not follow box office that closely back then and was not even born when Sholay and Deewaar released. But in spite of these factors, all these movies are still strongly remembered and evoke fond reactions from many who have seen them. Again, not universal, but nothing is universal. Compared to these, “blockbusters” like Raja Hindustani or Raam Teri Ganga Maili are hardly ever talked about. -
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0 0@Rockie – ” How many movies till date have earned close to 200cr?? Only 2.. Wch movie other then 3I’s crossed 200cr ??
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1 0Ok sorry my bad.. You wer talking close to 200cr.. Yah ett is indeed close to 200cr n so is 3I’s but the only difference is that ETT is below n 3I’s is above 200cr…
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1 0Tango,
Who told you that MNIK trended badly? Its trending was ‘Above Average’. Yeah, not very good but not totally rejected either. And I don’t know who considers MNIK a milestone in SRK’s career – maybe the people around him but no one else. As for Don, a few people around you can’t tell if it was liked or not, the trending does.
Yeah the definition of good cinema varies – but what we call a Hit is what was liked by majority. And trending tells us that, not big openings.
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1 0Shalu, is it fair to take humongous openings of 1st day n multiply by 8 or is it better to take an avg of the first 8 day collections m then multiply it by 8?
See I’m not discarding your theory yet, still trying to work around it, because I think u are taking a big 1st day opening as a disadvantage..to draw the final verdict. So how about an avg of 1st 8 days? Since you hv chosen 8, let’s not budge from that no. Ok?
Can somebody pls post 1st 8 day collections here? -
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0 0RJ, Nothing I saw will convince you. You will believe what you want to. So what is the point?
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0 0shalu this is ur problem..you always avoid a proper genuine discussion…
in the old days repeat audiences watched movies over a course of weeks months or maybe it was new audiences who didn’t get a chance to see the movie watch it over the period of time…
nowadays you get repeat audiences in the first 2-3 days itself..how come ur theory never account for that..
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0 0dennycrane1, How does it matter?! Only die-hard fans of the actor or the movie watch the film on the same weekend twice. That percentage is too small to affect trending. Trending comes when neutrals re-watch or recommend a film.
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0 0Shalu Ji a request if you can relook at your trending theory considering the current market dynamics as trending theory is still relevant but the criteria you consider that requires certain changes to have the fair idea of the movie success from the audience point of view.
There may be movies which i may or may not like but that does not reflect on the success or failure of a movie unless my views reflects the major part of the movie goers. -
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1 1Anzee2u ji, My theory is completely in tune with the current market dynamics. I calculate trending of all films on the same criteria – whether I liked the film or not. My personal like or dislike does not come into it because the numbers speak for themselves.
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0 0With all due regards i rspect ur opinion shalu ji but this theory carries lots of unanswered questions.
Anyways Have a great day. -
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0 0trending is not importent in modern day of bussiness.its the final collections of films that matter the most.
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0 2shalu ji apne to raaz3 bhi flop krwa di
.[pr apne ranbir ki powar to dekh li na yeh hote he future superstar -
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0 0Arrey yeh toh hadd go gayi shalu!!
I’m only trying to work around your theory n all u had to say was that nothing will convince me?
How can you be so rigid about your theory when all you are doing is making assumptions?!
Since you propagate trending theory here, im asking u..only trying to understand what makes you say opening day x 8 should be the lifetime collections…why that? Since it’s a big movie big release, isn’t an avg of 8 days going to show a better picture of it’s trending aka wom??Think logically, n keep ur biases aside. So have I! That’s only if u are ready to dicuss ur theory, but if u think what u ve sad is patthar ki lakeer, then I’ll go and eat my kheer!!
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4 0RJ, What I have said is patthar ki lakeer. Now go eat your kheer.
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0 0LOL
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Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 1When PK will do Rs. 400 crores net in India, then the gareeb fans of gareebon ka maseeha will realise that Shalu is a genius and has always been
Shalu, you have been a real INSPIRATION to the people in this forum. KUDOS.
Bhai fans, 3i would have done 350cr with 30cr opening if released on 15th aug 2012 ….ab khud hi compare karlo apne bhai ki disaster movie ki haalat
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0 0pyaare..tumhari IQ ka test abhi se:
is avengers and the dark knight a hit according to shalu’s theory? both had monster openings of 80 mill and 67 mill respectively.
and plz reply to the point .don’t go into the salman is blah blah rampage
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0 0RJ – I am very happy that this post has generated 1041 views. Majority has appreciated my view and a few have disagreed. And that is democracy. After all my dear friend Rohit had conceptualized NG like that!
As far as making all agree to a certain point of view is difficult, if not impossible!
I’ll just reproduce my famous example, that bores even me, so apologies to all those who have read this again and again -
Two ppl were arguing about wether 2 +2 = 4 or 5
First person : 2 + 2 = 5 and, that is my logic
Second person : Please ask anyone 2 + 2 = 4
First person : Tell me how?
Second person : See add 1 to 2 it becomes 3, add one more it becomes 4, QED!
First person : OK I understand that mathematically 2 + 2 = 4, but it will be 5 for me, and will be 4 for me only if I accept it (mere liye do aur do char to tab hoga jab main manoonga !)
So just relax!
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0 0but tango ji,if u add 2 times 2 to 2 the result will be 6
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2 0Thanks Pyaare
Tango, Yeah it is funny when people refuse to acknowledge things that are staring them in the face only because they have been told to do so.
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0 0Very true Shalu ji, no better evidence then this thread itself
“Tango, Yeah it is funny when people refuse to acknowledge things that are staring them in the face only because they have been told to do so.”
In most cases it is ego as also a stubborn and recalcitrant mindset that stops people from accepting the truth.
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0 0“In most cases it is ego as also a stubborn and recalcitrant mindset that stops people from accepting the truth.” ———– hahaha, tango bhai, i had said something similar many days back…
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0 0Trending theory cannot be applied in all cases and exceptions like ETT needs to be acknowledged. I agree with Tango bhai and request Shalu to consider opening like ETT into her model.
In fact trending theory works very well for most of the movies and hence can understand Shalu’s POV but i think it cannot be universally adopted. -
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1 0Tango, You know what’s funnier? A few fanatics POV is considered superior to good old common sense
Gorilla, Trending applies to ALL kinds of films when it comes to mapping acceptance. The ways are different yes, but trending is the only way to do that. Otherwise, we would never know that Ra.One was rejected at 115 cr and Ready was Superhit at 120 cr.
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0 0‘Otherwise, we would never know that Ra.One was rejected at 115 cr and Ready was Superhit at 120 cr.’
Ofcourse we would know by looking at their cost.
If i make an erotic movie with Poonam Pandey and Sunny Leone and release it in only one theatre in Mumbai (Maratha Mandir) and then in subsequent theaters in India with 25 new threaders every week for the next 25 weeks…..will you call it blockbusters
[Movie's cost will be Rs 15 Cr and my release strategy will be sure me recovery of Rs 17 Cr, i.e. Rs 2 Cr profit; but trending theory will make it look like a universally accepted blockbuster]
OK this may be a bad example, but i hope you are understanding my point.
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0 0‘Otherwise, we would never know that Ra.One was rejected at 115 cr and Ready was Superhit at 120 cr.’
Ofcourse we would know by looking at their cost.
If i make an erotic movie with Poonam Pandey and Sunny Leone titled “Jab tai hai Jism” and release it in only one theatre in Mumbai (Maratha Mandir) and then in subsequent theatre in India with 25 new theater release every week for the next 25 weeks…..will you call it blockbuster?
[Movie's cost will be Rs 15 Cr and my release strategy will be ensure me recovery of Rs 17 Cr, i.e. Rs 2 Cr profit; but trending theory will make it look like a universally accepted blockbuster]
OK this may be a bad example, but i hope you are understanding my point.
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2 0Gorilla, Word of mouth is not about cost or budget. Trending has nothing to do with cost or budget. I’m talking about audience acceptance here.
If Ra.One’s budget was half of what it was, it would still have earned 115 cr. And if Ready’s budget was double of what it was, it would still have earned 120 cr. Yet, Ra.One’s WOM would still have been bad and Ready’s WOM would still have been good.
In my books a film is not a hit if it earns good money for its investors, it is a hit if it finds acceptance in its target audience. And only a film’s trending tells us that. I hope you are understanding my point.
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2 0just came here to make century here 100th comment
P.S shalu Ready is not superhit it was a BLOCKBUSTER and it definitely did more than 120crores maybe 121-122. also raone didnt reach 115cr.
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