Trending theory? Lets have a deep look into it with ETT & Vicky Donor as an example
Lets talk about foundations first:
Maximum Cinema goer population that exists for every film:
If the movie goers are 2 cr people and if they have already watched the movie due to its awareness and raw appeal within one week then where the hell does a film needs trending? ETT has reached to its max day one capacity which only shows that there are films that require trending and there are films that are just sold by its brand ambassador.
Just trending theory cannot be a yardstick without improvising these steps:
Suppose you award 2 points for a 40cr weekend, then what if movie exceeds it weekend collection?
3 points should be awarded for 50cr weekend
4 points should be awarded for 60cr weekend
similarly if movie fails to accumulate huge weekend then points should be deducted such as
2 points if it does 30cr weekend
1 point if it does 20cr weekend
But the standard Weekend figures must be set based on budget of the movie.
for ex: 40cr weekend min for 60cr or above budgeted movie and 30cr weekend min for 40cr budgeted movie and 15cr for 20cr or above budgeted movie.
As we have taken basic movie goer population at 2cr lets take a film to evaluate its price and footfalls.
it had business of around 40cr and avg ticket price was 100rs which makes a total of 40 lakh people have watched the movie vicky donor. 2cr/100rs = 40 lakh population
Now out of 2cr normal movie goer population only 40lakh have watched the movie which brings it to 40lakh/2cr*100 = 20%. Just 20% have watched the movie. Now 50% should be the yardstick. Its below 50% then it will have negative points, similarly
ETT will do around 170cr at a avg ticket price rate of 140rs. 170cr/130rs = 1.30cr population would have watched the film ETT out of 2cr that would be 1.30/2cr*100 = 65% of population have watched ETT. Now it will get positive points.
No of days survival or no of weeks survival. Basic should be min 3 weeks. below gets negative points and above gets positive points for each week.
When you evaluate all such points then atleast you get a basic idea why these films are able to make profits and declared hits/bb’s and not just limited to longevity test.
PS: There are so many loopholes that are talked about in Shalu’s trending theory and this is one of the reply to her theory (no to her as personal posts aren’t allowed) which many time she escapes offering a banter in case pointed out the loopholes. Ignoring so many facts and sleeping on Trending Theory (with so many loopholes in it) doesn’t make one high brow and others low brow.
PS: This is evaluation and not a new theory