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Ek Tha Tiger Box Office Predictions. All Time Blockbuster in Making.


With 8 days for release of Ek Tha Tiger it is high time for prediction of the Box Office figure of the film. Ek Tha Tiger stars Salman Khan and Katrina Kaif in lead role and is from the Yash Raj Banners. ETT is directed by Kabir Khan and story is written by Aditya Chopra.
Prediction has become tougher day by day, with wider release of the film all around. Still we receive goosebumps when we see the potential of a film like Ek Tha Tiger at the market. Last few years Salman Khan name is skyrocketed from its predecessors. His last year releases Bodyguard and Ready were the first and second biggest grossers of 2011 ahead of many other contemporaries biggies. This time scenario is changed, but its bigger and better.

For any exhibitors or Distributors it can’t get bigger than Ek Tha Tiger. Biggest banner, biggest stars and extended weekend. So, without any delay lets start the prediction of Ek Tha Tiger.
First lets introspect the negative part of Ek Tha Tiger release. It is releasing on the month of Ramzan, where films get lower occupancies than a normal month release. Plus, it is releasing on Independence Day, so it may get lower openings in sensitive zones of India on that day. From above two points collections of Ek Tha Tiger may get little affected, but it is Salman’s film and his die-hard fans will take care of these factors anyways.

Lets now come to the positives. Ek Tha Tiger is getting a 5 day weekend release. It is releasing on 15th August which is a National Holiday and collections will be earth shattering at least in the later half of the day in major centres. ETT is getting solo release and it will get benefit of Independence Day, Saturday, Sunday and Eid Holiday on Monday. So, collections would be humongous for 4 days at least in first 6 days.
Economics of Ek Tha Tiger -
Budget – Around 80 crore as reported by makers.
Amount Recovered Pre-Release. Satellite Rights of ETT speculated at least 50 crore (Actual may be more, biggest ever in Bollywood). Music and other rights should be 9 crore. So, we can assume that Ek Tha Tiger has recovered around a minimum of 59 crore even before the release of the film.
Amount need to be recovered for earning profit. After deduction of amount recovered by Satellite, Music and other rights another 21 crore need to be recovered, which can be achieved in its first two days itself. Outstanding.
Potential of Ek Tha Tiger. With a minimum of 3000 prints (3200-3400+ screens guaranteed ), it is by far the biggest release ever in Indian Box Office history. Screens are reported to be increased even wider by the day of the release of the film. If ETT gets ideally 100% occupancy it should get around 31-32 crore nett all India mark. But, realistically its should get an opening of 80%-90% occupancy (which is very high for such wide release film), which will take its opening day figure to 26-28 crore nett all India mark that never achieved at the Box Office. So, history might be on the cards of 15th August.
Opening Day Prediction. Around 26-28 crore nett all India.
Opening Weekend (5 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted – 100+ crore nett (Easily)
If Average -  85-90 crore nett.
If Rejected – 70-75 crore nett.
Opening Week (9 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted – 130+ crore nett (Easily)
If Average -  115 crore nett.
If Rejected – 90-100 crore nett.
Lifetime Collection Prediction.
If Accepted – 175+ crore nett (Easily. Die-hard Salman fans and even some people in Trade predicting 200+ crore nett).
If Average -  130-170 crore nett.
If Rejected – 115-125 crore nett.
Theatrical Verdict for Ek Tha Tiger. Since, majority of amount is already recovered by Satellite, Music and Other rights even before its release. It need a good two days of business for full recovery of amount. After that all will be profits. Also, Ek Tha Tiger is expected to earn huge from overseas which will even add to the revenues. Still Theatrical verdict for any film is important for its box officestatus. Lets evaluate.We can easily assume that ETT should collect around 20 crore distributor share from Overseas. Hence, for Theatrical Hit it needs another 60 crore distributor share from India (Assuming Budget of ETT 80 crore at the moment). For this ETT needs a Lifetime collection of 115-120 crore nett for Clean Hit, which can be easily achieved in its first week.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for ETT for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
 
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) – 180 cr nett+.
Blockbuster – 140-180 cr nett.
Super HIT - 120-140 cr nett.
HIT – 110-120 cr nett.
Trade HIT (Profit after adding Satellite, Music and Overseas figure to India Theatrical) – Around 59 crore already recovered before release. Another 22 crore distributor share (45 crore nett collection) need to be recovered from India and Overseas Theatrical. Above that it is Trade HIT.
Average – 85 -110 cr nett.
Flop – Below 85 cr nett.

Disaster – Below 70 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) – Ek Tha Tiger should collect around 180 cr nett in Lifetime. That means a Distributor Share of 90 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 25 crore. Total theatrical earnings 115 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 115 + 59 = 174 crores.
AddaToday Final Verdict on Ek Tha Tiger.
Profits – Total Amount Earned – Film Cost = 174 – 80 = Rs 94 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) – ATBB (180 crore nett all India).
LINK: http://www.addatoday.com/2012/08/ek-tha-tiger-box-office-predictions-all.html#.UCGNzagxjPY
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Comments

  1. August 8, 2012

    rockie_EK THA TIGER

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 5

    Budget – 80cr
    Satellite revenue – 50cr + (Actual may be more, biggest ever in Bollywood)
    Music and other rights – 9cr

    So only 21cr remaining for recovery. Most probably will be done in first 2 days of India’s theatrical business.

  2. August 8, 2012

    Bollywoodfan

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Has Suprabh been banned?

  3. August 8, 2012

    Bollywoodfan

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    my prediction:
    If accepted: 200+ Cr
    If average: 170 to 175 cr
    If rejected: 140 to 150 cr

  4. August 8, 2012

    Fasel

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3

    ETT has everything going for it to cross 3I’s record. I’m just not hoping its a downer, otherwise the skys the limit.

  5. August 8, 2012

    dr.nick

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 7

    i think ETT will do around 175-180.but as a fan i hope it goes past 200.

  6. August 8, 2012

    Sanjeev-Ek-hai-tiger

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 5

    In my opinion;
    if worst (as bad as ra one, yuvraaj, TMK): 125 crores
    if bad: 135 crores
    if average: 150 crores
    if decent: 165 crores
    if good : 180 crores
    if as good as dabangg: 200 crores
    if as good as 3 idiots: 270 crores

  7. August 8, 2012

    Sanjeev-Ek-hai-tiger

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

    just checked himmatwala first look and i liked it very much…hope someone will make a post soon
    http://www.indicine.com/movies.....jay-devgn/

  8. August 8, 2012

    Prateek

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 12

    I don’t care for the verdict.. My predictions is 170cr… But with double the release size, 15 to 20% increase in the prices n double the hype of 3I’s if it does not surpass 3I’s then it’s a shame :P

  9. August 8, 2012

    Prateek

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 10

    Before salman fans pounce on me let me remind you that Salman himself has said it.. :P

  10. August 8, 2012

    rockie_EK THA TIGER

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    To surpass 3I the movie has to have solid content.
    Hype and all other things will just increase the opening figures.

    Fingers crossed. All the best team ETT ….

    tod de phod de ….. sabko peeche chod de … !!

  11. August 8, 2012

    das

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6

    Lol Prateek

    My prediction
    If WOM is good – 150-160cr
    If WOM is bad – 110-120cr

  12. August 8, 2012

    Serenzy

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    Overseas – $12mn

    India Nett – 160-175cr

    ……..

    ETT has Similar Economics to Don2 and has the Hype of RA.One.

    Which is a Great Combo to be in…RA.One fr dat matter failed with a Weak Content & Overbudget Issues.

  13. August 8, 2012

    Alfa.one

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 4

    In no case less than 225 Cr. as already said before !!

  14. August 8, 2012

    Aditya007

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

    ETT will be a storm at BO, due to huge hype & buzZ.
    It should be do around 165+cr with good WoM.
    But salman & YRF sholud start a more heavy promotion like SRK does at time of much hyper failure Ra.one, but here There is no chance to fail ETT even in wrost case(130+) .

  15. August 8, 2012

    diva

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    hmmm…..

    HUGE EXPECTATIONS From Salman..lets see

  16. August 8, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    @rockie – wah wah! issi speed se jaate rahe to saare ‘neutral trade experts’ ko peechhe chhod doge! excellent.

    by the way arent u putting the thresholds very high. i think 100 shud be clean hit, 110 + shud be super hit, 125+ shud be blockbuster and 150+ shud be atbb.

    by the way thanx for giving us hamaara naara.

    tod de phod de, sabko peechhe chhod de!

  17. August 8, 2012

    iitianWay

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    anyday release: 140Cr
    republic day relasee: 150
    republic day release followed by EID:160
    republic day release followed by EID and constantly repeating THIS EID , THIS EID: 170 Cr.

  18. August 8, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    iitianway – 15th august is not republic day, its independence day.

  19. August 8, 2012

    ranjit

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    :rofl: iitianway … i cant believe this :P … you have written 3 times republic day.. :laugh2:

  20. August 8, 2012

    iitianWay

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    are kyon thak rahe ho..yaar tum independance day mana lena :)

  21. August 8, 2012

    Kunal

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    3idiots record is definately safe… I dont see anyone breaking it for another 1-2 years atleast…

    As for ett… If liked i say 165-175 crore!!

  22. August 8, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    @kunal – and wat abt hahk inflation adjusted record? 12 cr footfall in 1994 wud translate into 1200 cr gross today at current average ticket rates of 100 rs

  23. August 8, 2012

    Kunal

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    12 crore footfall??

  24. August 8, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @kunal – fatt gayin na….. aankhien.

    120 cr gross at an average ticket rate of rs 10 is 12 cr footfall.

  25. August 8, 2012

    Yakuza

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    @Kunal ..
    HAHK footfall was in range of 7.5 Crore. 123 Crore gross and approx. 16/- average ticket price.

    Let me give you full scenario of HAHK ticket prices. It was released on just 29 prints in first week mainly in big cities. After that prints were given to top end theaters only or to those who agreed to renovate the theater as per their condition. Before release of HAHK average ticket price was 8/-. But for HAHK every theater increase their ticket price to almost double which ranged from Rs. 12/- (16/- balcony, 8/- circle) in small cities to Rs. 25/-(35/- balcony, 25/- upper circle, 7/- front) in metros. There were some theaters in small towns who get back to their normal ticket prices after 10 to 12 weeks of run, to attract more footfalls.

    Overall average ticket price was definitely somewhere at 16/ + range (BOI claims 35/- which is 100% wrong as this was upper range in metros). This leads to footfalls in somewhere around 7.5 Crore category.

    Sholay footfalls were somewhere around 22 Crore .. around 15 Crore for first run and 7 Crore for re-runs.

  26. August 8, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    @yakuza – i have heard this false tale before. but if the balcony tickets were 12 rs and front stall 2 rs at sapna where hahk released in the 1st round (correct e if i am wrong) in the heart of posh south delhi, there is no way hahk average ticket price can be more than 10 rs in the whole country.

    i will give u another proof’. i was in mumbai last month and went to maratha mandir that has been ‘playing’ ddlj for ’17 years’. the ticket prices for that morning show are 15, 17 and 20 rs. the average comes to 17.50 rs. this is in 2012. (its proof can be very easily given)

    now assuming while the ticket prices in the whole country went up to ten folds and maratha mandir has increased ticket prices just two fold between 1994-2012, the ticket prices in 1994 come to less than 10 rs.

    the (false) twist in ur tale is the ticket prices being increased FOR ‘hu aapke hain kaun. yakuza mere dost, any one who was 10 years or older in 1994 (by the way while calling me childish etc have u ever thought of the possibility that i cud be older than you) wud know that in those days theater owners cud nt increase prices for individual theaters like today and the state govt as well as municipal body (mcd in delhi, bmc in mumbai) were involved in it and the prices increased across the state only with govt approval and at fixed percentage. and that percentage was never, never never more than 15%. not once thru the 80s. it was aftre hahk rejuvenated the film industry that the cinema owenrs were allowed to increase the ticket prices by 40% 1st time in late 1994 (december to be precise).

    this continued for better part of the 90s. then came pvr saket (half a kilometer from my place in saket, delhi where i the lived) the 1st multiplex in india and then came the policy change, a cpl of years later. u wud be surprised to know that even as pvr prices went from 75 rs to 135 rs in 2 years, still 2 rows were reserved for rs 6 (in the front) with govt intervention and after a lot of lobbying this rule was changed and priing was left to the industry entirely.

    so before u cook up stories u must study the govt policies. ther is no way 29 theaters across many states cud have increased ticket prices, come barjatyas or subhash ghai.

    hahk footfall was 12 cr at 123 gross and 10 rs average ticket prices.

    now coming to ur other lie. at the time of sholay ticket prices were 2.50 rs. and sholay gross was 30 cr so this comes to a footfall of 12 cr. but at least 10 of these 30 cr came after the ticket price hike (that any big hit causes and so did sholay) by 1980 the average ticket price was 3 rs. here are the rates for sangam cinema r k puram. 1.25 rs, 2 rs, 3 rs and 4.50 (balcony) in 1980 for a show of kali ghata starring shashi kapoor and rekha.

    that means is all 30 cr of sholay cant be calculated at 2 rs but shud be averaged out at 2.50 rs as a cpl f the crores even came thru the 80s. but 80s did not see any hike in ticket prices (in 1983 there was a drop, the only incidence of such kind) and very slowly there was some hike after the success of tezaab and the average ticket prices came to 4 rs.

    yes these are all south delhi experiences but the only place that cud be a lil higher is south mumbai. but rest of the country wud be much less.

    so even sholay footfall cant be more than hahk that is 12 cr.

    • August 8, 2012

      Yakuza

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

      HAHK ticket prices at Sapna and Satyam in 1994 were Balcony-35/- and upper Stall – 25/- .

      In my small town .. ticket prices were 16/- balcony and upper stall 8/-.

      And ask any of your elder .. ticket prices were hiked for HAHK specifically .. and that too almost double. In my town .. it was Rs. 8/- Balcony before .. and shoot up to 16/- balcony for HAHK. We spent around 50,000 at that time for renovation of cinema (also placed lights around screen) which was quite good amount at that time for maintenance. To recover this ticket price hike was essential. It was hiked at every cinema where HAHK was exhibited. Now how this hiked was happen individual to a cinema is definitely not a concern area of yours.

  27. August 9, 2012

    Pyaare

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    1 lakh paise lifetime

    • August 9, 2012

      rockie_EK THA TIGER

      Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 5 Thumb down 5

      Pyaare- Apni lifetime ki aamdani bataa rahe ho?? :P

      koi baat nahi … uparwaale ke ghar mei der hai andheer nahi …
      kabhi na kabhi tumhe bhi acachi aamdani mill hi jayegi …

  28. August 9, 2012

    RJ

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Waise yeh pyaare character bahut interesting hai! Just because he hates Salman, we can’t diss him. But I hope he stays when ETT is bajaoing at the BO.

    Don’t run away like a sissy then!

    • August 9, 2012

      rockie_EK THA TIGER

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      Well we will sing songs for him after ETT releases.
      You knw he hates salman more than he loves bachcha.

      He rarely comments on bachcha’s posts but he is regular on Salman threads. I always maintain we need people like Pyaare, they will watch ETT atleast to bash Salman and increase the business by manifolds.

      Thanks a lot pyaare. Salman ke liye jo ZEHER tumhare andar bhara pada hai, usse aise hi barkaraar rakhna.

  29. August 9, 2012

    danish

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @yakuza – jhooth se kaam nahin chala to kannon hi apne haath mein le loge kya?

    ticket prices of sapna (i wudnt knwo abt satyam but sapna was in a more posh area) were 2.10 rs, 4.80 rs, 8 rs and 12 rs for sapna in 1994. tell me which city r u from. i lived 6 km from sapna, in saket.

    ddlj uphaar ticket prices were 2.10 (yes front stall was not allowed to hike by authorities) 8 rs for middle stall, 12 rs for rear stall and 18 rs for balcony. yes! thats the kind of rejuvenation and hike hahk cused and ddlj benefitted from.

    till 1998-1999 there was no way individual theaters cud have raised the ticket prices. it was done with govt and municipal intervention. i double checked with a lawyer uncle of mine who is a film buff.

    i dont know where ur theater is but may be you guys took hahk after the price hike in late 1994 by which time hahk had become such a big hit that demanding renovation was possible for barjatyas (but not ticket price hike as that happened only in accordance with the rules) and since ticket price hike had already happened u have mixed up the two and cooked up ur own story.

    BUT THERE IS NOW WAY THAT BEFORE 1998 A THEATER CUD HAVE INCRESED TICKET PRICES. THE STATE GOVT AND MUNICIPAL BODY OF THE CITY HAD TO INTERVENE.

    i dont know yakuza wat was ur age in 1994 but my uncle was 26 years old. he watched the film at sapna in the 1st week and had to wait for 45 minutes to just take his car out from sapna parking. he also has ticket for a film called sherni with the price for balcony being 4 rs. but i understand that sherni was before mpk and one or two ticket price hikes did take place between sherni (1988) and hahk.

    @pyaari behna – u seriously think u r funny, dont u?

    @rockie – wah! kya ghuma ke chhakka maar hai. (pyaare i am referring to cricket waala chhakka. mere khilaaf mods ke saamne koi case na bana dena)

    • August 9, 2012

      Yakuza

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      I was 15 years old in 1994. And this is unfortunate for you that i saw HAHK first in September, 1994 in Sapna cinema Delhi with my dad and uncle’s family. Ticket prices are 100% confirmed 35/- Balcony and 25/- Upper stall.

      Any ways .. as you believe BOI.

      “Due to unparalleled demand for the film after its release, exhibitors upgraded their theatres to get prints of the film. This resulted in ticket prices going up heavily ”

      http://boxofficeindia.com/showProd.php?itemCat=126&catName=MTk5MC0xOTk5

      “Basically with the release of Hum Aapke Hain Kaun (1994) ticket prices went up hugely and remained at a similar lever for next few years”

      http://boxofficeindia.com/show.....9uIERhdGE=

  30. August 9, 2012

    Shalu

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Yakuza, Same pinch! I too was 15 years old in 1994 and I too watched HAHK in Sapna cinema!!! But my ticket was Rs. 75 – black mein khareeda tha :) Now that’s one old thing I don’t feel nostalgic about – thank God for online bookings!

    • August 9, 2012

      Yakuza

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

      And all those Black ticket sellers were employed by theater owners themselves. Shahenshah ki jitni official collections thi, usse double unofficial thi .. Rs. 100/- black ticket in 1988 .. :)

  31. August 9, 2012

    rajesh

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Shalu, you revealed your age, not expected from ladies.
    Ya phir aapne thoda kam karke bataya hain.

  32. August 9, 2012

    Shalu

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    rajesh, Online forum mein kya farak padta hai ki age kya hai :)

  33. August 9, 2012

    iitianWay

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    rajesh, shalu jea age pressure le nahin ..de rahi hain ..chhoto per. bach ke rahna respect mein na bah jaana :)

  34. August 9, 2012

    Gorilla

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I am usually bad at prediction. However will like to predict –

    Total Nett – 180 Cr

    Blockbuster

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