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Ek Tha Tiger Box Office Predictions. All Time Blockbuster in Making.
With 8 days for release of Ek Tha Tiger it is high time for prediction of the Box Office figure of the film. Ek Tha Tiger stars Salman Khan and Katrina Kaif in lead role and is from the Yash Raj Banners. ETT is directed by Kabir Khan and story is written by Aditya Chopra.
Prediction has become tougher day by day, with wider release of the film all around. Still we receive goosebumps when we see the potential of a film like Ek Tha Tiger at the market. Last few years Salman Khan name is skyrocketed from its predecessors. His last year releases Bodyguard and Ready were the first and second biggest grossers of 2011 ahead of many other contemporaries biggies. This time scenario is changed, but its bigger and better.
For any exhibitors or Distributors it can’t get bigger than Ek Tha Tiger. Biggest banner, biggest stars and extended weekend. So, without any delay lets start the prediction of Ek Tha Tiger.
First lets introspect the negative part of Ek Tha Tiger release. It is releasing on the month of Ramzan, where films get lower occupancies than a normal month release. Plus, it is releasing on Independence Day, so it may get lower openings in sensitive zones of India on that day. From above two points collections of Ek Tha Tiger may get little affected, but it is Salman’s film and his die-hard fans will take care of these factors anyways.
Lets now come to the positives. Ek Tha Tiger is getting a 5 day weekend release. It is releasing on 15th August which is a National Holiday and collections will be earth shattering at least in the later half of the day in major centres. ETT is getting solo release and it will get benefit of Independence Day, Saturday, Sunday and Eid Holiday on Monday. So, collections would be humongous for 4 days at least in first 6 days.
Economics of Ek Tha Tiger -
Budget – Around 80 crore as reported by makers.
Amount Recovered Pre-Release. Satellite Rights of ETT speculated at least 50 crore (Actual may be more, biggest ever in Bollywood). Music and other rights should be 9 crore. So, we can assume that Ek Tha Tiger has recovered around a minimum of 59 crore even before the release of the film.
Amount need to be recovered for earning profit. After deduction of amount recovered by Satellite, Music and other rights another 21 crore need to be recovered, which can be achieved in its first two days itself. Outstanding.
Potential of Ek Tha Tiger. With a minimum of 3000 prints (3200-3400+ screens guaranteed ), it is by far the biggest release ever in Indian Box Office history. Screens are reported to be increased even wider by the day of the release of the film. If ETT gets ideally 100% occupancy it should get around 31-32 crore nett all India mark. But, realistically its should get an opening of 80%-90% occupancy (which is very high for such wide release film), which will take its opening day figure to 26-28 crore nett all India mark that never achieved at the Box Office. So, history might be on the cards of 15th August.
Opening Day Prediction. Around 26-28 crore nett all India.
Opening Weekend (5 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted – 100+ crore nett (Easily)
If Average - 85-90 crore nett.
If Rejected – 70-75 crore nett.
Opening Week (9 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted – 130+ crore nett (Easily)
If Average - 115 crore nett.
If Rejected – 90-100 crore nett.
Lifetime Collection Prediction.
If Accepted – 175+ crore nett (Easily. Die-hard Salman fans and even some people in Trade predicting 200+ crore nett).
If Average - 130-170 crore nett.
If Rejected – 115-125 crore nett.
Theatrical Verdict for Ek Tha Tiger. Since, majority of amount is already recovered by Satellite, Music and Other rights even before its release. It need a good two days of business for full recovery of amount. After that all will be profits. Also, Ek Tha Tiger is expected to earn huge from overseas which will even add to the revenues. Still Theatrical verdict for any film is important for its box officestatus. Lets evaluate.We can easily assume that ETT should collect around 20 crore distributor share from Overseas. Hence, for Theatrical Hit it needs another 60 crore distributor share from India (Assuming Budget of ETT 80 crore at the moment). For this ETT needs a Lifetime collection of 115-120 crore nett for Clean Hit, which can be easily achieved in its first week.
What Lifetime Collection needs to be for ETT for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) – 180 cr nett+.
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) – 180 cr nett+.
Blockbuster – 140-180 cr nett.
Super HIT - 120-140 cr nett.
HIT – 110-120 cr nett.
Trade HIT (Profit after adding Satellite, Music and Overseas figure to India Theatrical) – Around 59 crore already recovered before release. Another 22 crore distributor share (45 crore nett collection) need to be recovered from India and Overseas Theatrical. Above that it is Trade HIT.
Trade HIT (Profit after adding Satellite, Music and Overseas figure to India Theatrical) – Around 59 crore already recovered before release. Another 22 crore distributor share (45 crore nett collection) need to be recovered from India and Overseas Theatrical. Above that it is Trade HIT.
Average – 85 -110 cr nett.
Flop – Below 85 cr nett.
Disaster – Below 70 cr nett.
AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) – Ek Tha Tiger should collect around 180 cr nett in Lifetime. That means a Distributor Share of 90 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 25 crore. Total theatrical earnings 115 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 115 + 59 = 174 crores.
AddaToday Final Verdict on Ek Tha Tiger.
Profits – Total Amount Earned – Film Cost = 174 – 80 = Rs 94 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) – ATBB (180 crore nett all India).
LINK: http://www.addatoday.com/2012/08/ek-tha-tiger-box-office-predictions-all.html#.UCGNzagxjPY

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