HOUSEFULL 2 – Probable economics (My analysis)

Now, the big-release potential blockbuster season has kicked off in a really voluminous manner. The season begins with Housefull 2 and then Bollywood will release biggie after biggie in succession. So, its only fair to evaluate certain economic aspects of the first film in this series.

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DETAILS

Film : HOUSEFULL 2

Director : Sajid Khan

Release Date : April 6, 2012

Screen count : 4,000

RECORD TO BEAT

Housefull (April record holder) - INR72.1 crores

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Housefull 2 is releasing in a huge number of prints, breaking the previous record of Ra.One (3,100 prints). Besides that, it has considerable hype, a brand name and a few holidays in its weekend. A slight deterrent is the Indian Premier League, though that has lost its sheen a lot in the years and is no longer a real threat to Bollywood films.

Now, the economic analysis. Here, two cases (Best case, Worst case) will be taken up. The benchmark shall be Ra.One (not as a film, but by economics as its the only really comparable release size). Details of Ra.One as far as I know :-

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Opening weekend occupancy – 95%

Opening week occupancy – 65%

Opening weekend - INR53 crores

Opening week - INR92 crores

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All calculations assuming a same/nearly same sort of rollout as Ra.One. I am aware that this is rather inconsistent but predictions are made like this. Figures will be rounded off accordingly.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Opening weekend occupancy :- 60%

.:. Opening weekend = (4000/3100) * 53 * (60/95) = (25/31) * 53 = INR43 crores

Opening week occupancy :- 40%

.:. Opening week = (4000/3100) * 92 * (40/65) = (25/31) * 92 = INR75 crores

Since these occupancies show not very good trending, and release is very big, let’s assume a 70% drop in second week.

Second week = (30/100) * 75 = INR22 crores

After that, it will slow down hard. Assuming a 85% drop in Week Three, and then definitely a 90% drop in Week Four due to release of Ferrari Ki Sawari and Tezz :-

Third week = (15/100) * 22 = INR3 crores

Fourth Week = (10/100) * 3 = INR30 lakhs

After this it will be pretty negligible. So net total will be 75 + 22 + 3 + 0.5 (approx) = INR100.5 crores

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Opening weekend occupancy:- 85%

.:. Opening weekend = (4000/3100) * 53 * (85/95) = (36/31) * 53 = INR61 crores

Opening week occupancy:- 70%

.:. Opening week = (4000/3100) * 92 * (70/65) = (43/31) * 92 = INR128 crores

Since the film is well enough, a 55% drop in second week :-

Second week = (45/100) * 128 = INR58 crores

After this, we shall say a 70% drop, and then an 85% drop :-

Third week = (30/100) * 58 = INR17 crores

Fourth week = (15/100) * 17 = INR2.5 crores

Grand total = 128 + 58 + 17 + 2.5 + 1 (from rest of the run) = INR206.5 crores

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The best case scenario is WILDLY optimistic. There is next to no chance that Housefull 2 will cross INR200 crore. So its better if fans do not get their hopes up too much. A fair enough scenario would be somewhere in between, i.e. INR165 crores. Even that will be a bit of a task, but we have to consider the gigantic release size; Housefull 2 has a lot of stakes on it, and it needs to earn and earn big to really leave a box office mark. Some theories :-

Below INR100 croresMassive disappointment. Even a poorly-trended Ra.One did INR115 crore, Houseful 2 with a far bigger release should at least top that.

INR100 crore to INR125 croreAverage to above average. Could have done better considering the release size, but still nothing bad.

INR125 crores - INR150 croresSolid Hit. All doubts will clear at that point.

Above that mark, it may hit the superhit mark, though Box Office India may declare it a blockbuster due to sheer net revenue. However, it should be noted that all of this would be because of the release size, and that alone. In this box office game, the number of screens is perhaps the biggest box office decider for Housefull 2. Let’s hope the big season opens with a bang!

Student and film addict. Stars may come and stars may go but films go on forever.

58 Comments

  1. aman said:

    It has already broken the only record capable of being broken by akki….that’s the number of screens. So akki fans may now take the name of akki with the Khans in the same breath. Pop the champagne akki fans.

  2. Jasp the Wasp said:

    @aman

    Well yes, I was just analyzing, trying to predict. I never claimed it would break any more records; it will need fantastic trending for that (i.e. Best Case scenario given above).

  3. Tashan said:

    Lol at aman…SIK had the biggest release for its time same goes for tmk so what are u smoking? and@Jtw 100 cr disappointment or average hmmm so what was don 2? it had same release as Raone but did just 105 cr?

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Don 2 had a slightly smaller release. And its better to analyse things a bit deeper before commenting. Don 2 had no mass appeal. Hence it is not possible for it to match up to all-round entertaining films. What you also conveniently forget is that Don 2 had to suffer Ra.One backlash (and it was a LOT of backlash) and its promotions were nowhere close to the levels of promotions of Ra.One.

      So I suggest you start using your brain a bit widely before talking :P

      • rajeev singh said:

        you have ignited another discussion against ra one and don2…….i think anywhere above 80-85 crores is good success, for housefull 2 on release scale of desi boyz, and on this level of release 100 cr+ (increasing 15 to 20 cr just because of big release) is good success…….

        • Jasp the Wasp said:

          I am sorry? I have “ignited” “another” discussion “against” Ra.One and Don 2? Are you sure you know what you are talking about? It was Tashan who made the comment and I clarified. And before using your heavily fanaticised brain, care to tell me when I have ever started a discussion “against” Ra.One and Don 2?

          I mean, seriously, were you just blabbering?

          I made my analysis, and 100 cr at 4000 screens is a huge disappointment. Sorry but there is no way anybody will leave Akki if he fails to cross Ra.One at a much larger release. And I don’t want to think of what happens if it does less than 100 crores.

          • rajeev singh said:

            dude you get too excited……what you wrote i got , but i know here many people will take the thing to which direction……plz control your anger, because other peoples may get more angry than you….and you must follow a better way of replying anybody, your words are too harsh….i haven’t abused you in my comment , i just told simple thing and you are reacting too much….

  4. Aditya007 said:

    ohhhh now evryine change his mind ,1st says it’ll be collect only 85+ & hit now saying …..100+cr is nt a good success.

    Don2 a huge brand & trailer had out before 5-6 month ago, & bdgt was approx 65-70 cr , released in 3500+screen space ,nd collect105cr (hit tag) bt Hf2 just opposite it. Akshay has nt even good time .

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Read my comment. I know Akki fans have a very limited brain working capacity but Don 2 is not HF2. And yes, since I now know you didn’t bother to read my analysis in full, I really won’t waste time on a nitwit like you.

  5. Tashan said:

    @jtw dude to hell with the appeal and all that, the fact is the release size was bigger than ready and bodyguard maybe just few prints less than ra1 … and who told him to make crappy raone? just one bad film affected don 2? by how much 3,5 crs thats it and yeah if it wasnt a mass film then why did they give it a 2600 prints release?

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      If you can only respond with that then I’m afraid I can’t say anything. Even my worst-case scenario puts HF2 at above 100 cr (something all Akki fans wanted) and yet you have no better work than to bite anyone and everyone. Fanatics are not the only allowed authority to make predictions.

      And yes, as you have proved that you are unwilling to take the facts up, I guess there’s no point explaining. Come to think of it, i should have known better and not replied at all. this will be my last comment to you; say whatever you wish, its going to fall on deaf ears.

  6. Rockyy said:

    I dnt understand this theory… So even a mvie content is nt gud it will collect 100 crores.. Whats d logic??

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      I wasn’t blasting you or anything :D Do you seriously think I’m some Akki fanatic who jumps at the tiniest hint of opposition? But 100 cr earners have defied logic; that was my point :D

      Ah I have had enough of predictions. The first day will be more than 0 Rupees :P

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      The 100 cr figure is solely due to the giant release size. Otherwise for any film 100 cr is a big thing. Had Housefull 2 received a more ordinary release like say 2,700 – 2,900 screens, it would have been “100 crores – Solid hit”. 4,000 screens is unprecedented.

  7. Dogafull-2 said:

    First of all, 4000 screens is a very vague statement. Usually its only number of prints and cinema count. Now one cinema might have more than one screen for housefull. So total number of cinema will be less only. I am guessing it will release around 2800 prints in around 2000 cinemas, so first single day capacity might be around 28 cr nett.

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Well, Ra.One was also reported as 3,100 “screens”. Each screen is like a theater Dogaji, so not too much of a difference.

  8. Dogafull-2 said:

    One multiplex which has 20 shows for Housefull 2, might have 4-5 screens devoted to it.

    So just one Cinema with may be 2 prints can have 4-5 screens.

    Its just pumping by fans and producers, screens count is vague parameter as of now, unless its made a standard.

    Right now we only go by number of prints and perhaps it will be closer to 3000 prints, give or take 100-200.

  9. beckett said:

    I am not a BO expert but does a big release means sureshot 100 Cr + , why does every producer/director/top actors dont do that? Why should one downgrade a movie though it is 100 Cr but is considered trash by some “intellectuals” since it has earned most moolah in the 1st Weekend? Movie making is a business and thats why Box Office is everything

  10. beckett said:

    @Jasp the Wasp – “I know Akki fans have a very limited brain working capacity”.. Such generalising shows how “active” your own brain is….

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Yes it does, doesn’t it? Actually one doesn’t need a very active brain to find out that Akki fans are basically very brain-inactive :D

  11. Dogafull-2 said:

    JTW, believe me, this “Screen Count” is probably the first time i am hearing about a movie (by Akki fans and HF2 producers).

    Its always been “Print Count” followed by “Cinema Count”

    Print counts is always more than Cinema count, as one plex sometimes might have more than 1 print count.

    Just wait a few days and trade sources will give us the “Print Count”.

  12. Yakuza said:

    Per day capacity of RA.One was around 35 Crore. Capacity of Kites was around 23 Crore, Release of Kites was historic moment in terms if screen counts. After Kites, release size of each big movie increase exponentially.

  13. Superstar SAM said:

    @jtw LOL on thz post…. U smells hf2 crosing 85 cr+ & u knw its sucess according to its economics.. So ur making such useless post to pull dwn hf2 and akki…
    Wat i knw little abt boxoffice screen count doesnt matter much if budget is controlable. All matter is roi method… Only boi follows ds per print tat too considering its budget..
    Fine example is blood money & m2 verdict by boi.

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Fine, your wish: take it or leave it. I never forced you to accept it did I? And you are making useless comments here too, so I don’t think you’re much better off :D

  14. Serenzy said:

    @doga bhai

    thnx for answering on dat 4000 screen count theory…Very valid obs u have made..I was just abt to ask u on dat topic…
    Wen i read i dis morning it really confused me but now i am sure its just a hyped figure by hf2 producers and akki fanatics.

  15. Serenzy said:

    @doga / jaspu

    i wantd to know :-

    1. Housefull budget & Housefull-2 budget(incl. PP)??

    2. Housefull nett and MNIK nett?

    3.RA.One nett and Don2 nett(incl. reg)??

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      2. MNIK was 72.74 cr; HF was 72.07 cr. HF had a higher DS due to better SS collections

      3. Ra.One was 122.5 cr, Don 2 was 109.5 cr (as far as I know)

  16. mujtaba_azim said:

    i read this crap post abt hf2…..

    calculations are pretty confusing…..well ya ofcourse not evry body can be like Mujtaba azim…

    see my statistics abt hf2..

    RELEASE SIZE – 3200 SCREENS OR 2155 CINEMAS

    PRINT COUNT – 2 787 PRINTS

    first day potential of hf2 is 29 cr…..

    ESTIMATions – with possible first day average occupancy –

    60% [ Most probable ] then first day will be..around 16 cr

    at 50% – first day would be 14-15 cr [ AT WORST ]

    at 65-75% – First day would be 18-21 cr… [ best scenerio ]

    weekend could be around 50 cr if wom is good…….at probable rate.,above.

  17. ady_koolz said:

    If it gets above 100 cr in india…This film should be a solid hit…I feel the success of film should be dependent on the budget and ROI…

  18. Serenzy said:

    @jaspu

    I take HF as 72cr and MNIK as 74cr.

    btw, RA.One for me is 118cr and Don2 is 110cr(all versn).

    ………..

    Wat abt HF and HF-2 budget??
    @doga…Plz clarify!!

    …….

    @tango

    Great to c it having a great opening….
    Hope it sustain due to good WOM or its surely a Goner!

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      uh you “take”? I am not “taking” figures, I reported BOI’s reported net (and I distinctly remember even at real time that HF2 was finally reported as 72.07 cr, so that should shut the mouths of all Akki fans who keep accusing BOI of being anti-Akki). You could round it out to 73 cr.

      Ra.One for you? Dude Ra.One’s all-version net is at least 121 cr; 115 from Hindi and 6 cr from Tamil/Telugu first week. It added pretty little after that, around 1.5 cr – 122.5 cr. Don 2 is nearabout 110 cr.

  19. Tango said:

    Thanks Serenzy.

    Yeah me too think MNIK was a crore or so higher than HF at 73 crore.

    Opening to bumper lagegi, hope it sustains as well.

    Will let you know on Friday evening what I feel about it sustaining or whatever.

  20. come_fall_in_chat said:

    @jsw nice to see ur analysis n such a positive analysis for akki movie i think akki fans couldnt thinking for 200 cr may be they r happy if hf2 reach 100 cr from my point i m looking for 80-85 cr. n its good too see that some haters start supporting akki like you n delight lets hope for the best n thnx for u r support but if its genuine if its u r game plan to show u r self neutral n start pulling the movie on day of release than its very bad.

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Its not a positive analysis, its something of a print-by-print comparison of films. There’s very little chance of it reaching the best-case scenario (unless its as good as 3 Idiots) so it should be somewhere in between. And I don’t work like that; while HF2 is certainly not going to be watched by me, I don’t allow that to cloud any economic prospects. Of course, my analysis hinges on assuming that the 4,000 screen release is true; it may not be, and the net may turn out lower too.

      Anyways, just for Bollywood’s sake I hope the film manages to do well. After certain commercial failures we need to get back in shape.

  21. Serenzy said:

    @jasp

    RA.One was arnd 118cr all incl.
    Get it clarified from Doga,Sanket,Roy etc.

    HF was 72cr while MNIK was 1cr more in 2010.

    @tango
    waiting for ur views

    @cfic
    hf2 will be great….Dont worry…It will do fine!!!

    Wen u watching it..And u from India??

    • Jasp the Wasp said:

      Sorry but official box office figures said 6 cr opening week. Anyways I am not forcing you to listen to me, you can choose whichever source you wish.

  22. Talaash said:

    A few days back u said u said ghajini was bad n it worked only cos of marketing.. Ghajini did 115cr 3yes back with half d no of screens… If u gonna equate ur predictions with d no of screens then take ghajini as d base.. :P

  23. sanket porwal said:

    HF2 has huge print count for one reason- its length including half dozen promos. 2.45 hours will be the length and thus shows will be less at plexes. Now producers have extended the quantity of prints because more shows will be adjusted.

    I made a post during Ra.One that how print count helps for more no. of shows and took Bodyguard as yardstick…

    http://www.naachgaana.com/2011/10/29/my-view-on-no-of-prints-circulated-for-ra-one-must-read-and-comment/

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