HOUSEFULL 2 – Probable economics (My analysis)

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Now, the big-release potential blockbuster season has kicked off in a really voluminous manner. The season begins with Housefull 2 and then Bollywood will release biggie after biggie in succession. So, its only fair to evaluate certain economic aspects of the first film in this series.

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DETAILS

Film : HOUSEFULL 2

Director : Sajid Khan

Release Date : April 6, 2012

Screen count : 4,000

RECORD TO BEAT

Housefull (April record holder) - INR72.1 crores

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Housefull 2 is releasing in a huge number of prints, breaking the previous record of Ra.One (3,100 prints). Besides that, it has considerable hype, a brand name and a few holidays in its weekend. A slight deterrent is the Indian Premier League, though that has lost its sheen a lot in the years and is no longer a real threat to Bollywood films.

Now, the economic analysis. Here, two cases (Best case, Worst case) will be taken up. The benchmark shall be Ra.One (not as a film, but by economics as its the only really comparable release size). Details of Ra.One as far as I know :-

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Opening weekend occupancy – 95%

Opening week occupancy – 65%

Opening weekend - INR53 crores

Opening week - INR92 crores

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All calculations assuming a same/nearly same sort of rollout as Ra.One. I am aware that this is rather inconsistent but predictions are made like this. Figures will be rounded off accordingly.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Opening weekend occupancy :- 60%

.:. Opening weekend = (4000/3100) * 53 * (60/95) = (25/31) * 53 = INR43 crores

Opening week occupancy :- 40%

.:. Opening week = (4000/3100) * 92 * (40/65) = (25/31) * 92 = INR75 crores

Since these occupancies show not very good trending, and release is very big, let’s assume a 70% drop in second week.

Second week = (30/100) * 75 = INR22 crores

After that, it will slow down hard. Assuming a 85% drop in Week Three, and then definitely a 90% drop in Week Four due to release of Ferrari Ki Sawari and Tezz :-

Third week = (15/100) * 22 = INR3 crores

Fourth Week = (10/100) * 3 = INR30 lakhs

After this it will be pretty negligible. So net total will be 75 + 22 + 3 + 0.5 (approx) = INR100.5 crores

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Opening weekend occupancy:- 85%

.:. Opening weekend = (4000/3100) * 53 * (85/95) = (36/31) * 53 = INR61 crores

Opening week occupancy:- 70%

.:. Opening week = (4000/3100) * 92 * (70/65) = (43/31) * 92 = INR128 crores

Since the film is well enough, a 55% drop in second week :-

Second week = (45/100) * 128 = INR58 crores

After this, we shall say a 70% drop, and then an 85% drop :-

Third week = (30/100) * 58 = INR17 crores

Fourth week = (15/100) * 17 = INR2.5 crores

Grand total = 128 + 58 + 17 + 2.5 + 1 (from rest of the run) = INR206.5 crores

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The best case scenario is WILDLY optimistic. There is next to no chance that Housefull 2 will cross INR200 crore. So its better if fans do not get their hopes up too much. A fair enough scenario would be somewhere in between, i.e. INR165 crores. Even that will be a bit of a task, but we have to consider the gigantic release size; Housefull 2 has a lot of stakes on it, and it needs to earn and earn big to really leave a box office mark. Some theories :-

Below INR100 croresMassive disappointment. Even a poorly-trended Ra.One did INR115 crore, Houseful 2 with a far bigger release should at least top that.

INR100 crore to INR125 croreAverage to above average. Could have done better considering the release size, but still nothing bad.

INR125 crores - INR150 croresSolid Hit. All doubts will clear at that point.

Above that mark, it may hit the superhit mark, though Box Office India may declare it a blockbuster due to sheer net revenue. However, it should be noted that all of this would be because of the release size, and that alone. In this box office game, the number of screens is perhaps the biggest box office decider for Housefull 2. Let’s hope the big season opens with a bang!