RA.ONE, BODYGUARD and DON2:Predictions, Speculations

The month of July has brought the smiles back on Bollywood as there have been four consecutive hits, which is a rarity.
But, none of these movies were the most anticipated ones.

Even Ready which grossed 120 Cr+ was never the most anticipated movie of this year.

The three most anticipated movies of this year are unarguably the following
– RA.ONE
– BODYGUARD
– DON 2

Now, since all the 3 promos have been aired, I thought it will be a good time to try to figure out which one is most likely to be the winner.

RA.ONE - This movie has the biggest budget and definitely most risky. An untested genre, a director having a series of duds and a humongous budget. The promo also met with a mixed response (Youtube Likes:Dislikes =3:1, just for reference). Plus, the makers seemed unconvinced about their own product and trying out too many different things. On the positive side, I think the music will be good and the promotion will be huge which will ensure a record opening. But, a good opening is not sufficient to carry it through due to the huge costs involved. Prediction – Opening weekend (5-day): 70 Cr, Lifetime < 120 Cr. Verdict: Below Average/Flop

BodyGuard: Typical Sallu masala movie with all the ingredients. Sallu is on a roll and that too on Eid. But the director is unknown.ALso, it is clear that unlike a Wanted or Dabang, the Love story here is the central theme and it has to connect to the audience. The promo again has mixed response, at least from the urban crowd (Youtube liks:dislikes <3:1). But Sallu's main fan base (Single screens) do not spend much time on the Internet. SO, this has to be taken with a pinch of salt.Prediction - Opening weekend(5 day) - 65 Cr. Lifetime:130 Cr. Verdict - Blockbuster (What is the cost/budget, can someone confirm?)

DON 2 - Now, this movie I am 110% convinced will be kick ass. The promo was excellent(Youtube Likes:Dislikes =12:1, miles ahead of the other two). , SRK looks dashing, the locales are breath taking. Only negative could be Farhan’s slow pace of narration but I think, being an intelligent man, he knows this better than anybody else and would have taken care. Other problem could be the failure of RA.ONE. Prediction: Weekend – 55 Cr, Lifettim: 150 Cr. Verdict – All time blockbuster.

So, to summarize –
DON2 will be the winner and a probable All time blockbuster, BodyGuard will be a huge hit and a probable blockbuster wwhile RA.ONE is the most risky and a probable Flop/Below Average.

What do you guys say?
Disclaimer – I am an SRK fan and want both RA.ONE and DON 2 to succeed.

75 Comments

  1. sandy
    sandy
    July 29, 2011 at 3:16 AM

    http://satyamshot.wordpress.com/2011/02/13/jayshahs-2011-box-office-predictions/

    Jay had done these predictions which many intensely disagreed with. But he’s already got 2 right -though ZNMD might not touch 100 exactly, but still a huge hit.

  2. karan
    karan
    July 29, 2011 at 3:17 AM

    sure hope so milind, after a quiet period for srk, 2011 is another year that will be ruled by him

  3. Tanned Sen
    Tanned Sen
    July 29, 2011 at 3:20 AM

    Ha ha sandy. Are you plugging a third rate reporter because he writes for your paper. I have read some of his reports. Absolute trash. Getting 2 movies right is a big deal? I think half of ng would have made better predictions than this joker jay shah.

  4. Tango
    Tango
    July 29, 2011 at 3:56 AM

    Sandy- READY getting 100 crore plus was quite predictable, and almost everyone here who knows a thing or two about BO could predict it, just like for a Double Dhamaal getting succesful

    About ZNMD, it was an unknown commodity but if a flop multiplex appealing KITE could get to near 50 crore, 60 crore plus was always on the card for ZNMD.

    Yeah if anybody had got MURDER 2 and SINGHAM outcome right, he/she would have been a great predictor.

    About BODYGUARD, it will not beat READY, but will be a superhit.

    And about RA.ONE, it will surely cross 100 crore, even if it is 100 crore and 1 Rs. it is obvious.

    Don 2, may surpass RA.ONE coz once again Don is a brand. And obviously if Don 1, that had to live up to the Big B Don legacy, releasing against an Akki-Sullu film, managed 50 crore in 2006, Don 2 will manage to do 2.5 or three times of Don 1.

    No rocket science involved there.

  5. sandy
    sandy
    July 29, 2011 at 4:17 AM

    Tango: It was mostly a fun article by Jay. Why I put the link is because at that time, many of the predictions seemed haywire. And no one really agreed with him even on that thread.
    And I dont agree about Ready and Zindagi being sure-shot. No film is sure-shot. I wouldnt have bet on Ready being a 100 plus grosser. Also, ZNMD too is a definite hit (more than the 100 cr deal predicting that it will be a success was the more imp thing)

    Im not saying it’s a big deal. it is mostly fluke but I dont believe it’s easy to guage these things at the very start. it is more dicey than rocket science. And Ive attached no seriousness to it. predictions are fun things and I take it in that spirit. How can anyone really say how a film will perform without even seeing a promo? But since he HAS got it right, I thought I’ll put the link.

  6. ranju
    ranju
    July 29, 2011 at 4:17 AM

    If someone really good with prediction then better not to predict Ra.One, Don2, Bodyguard or Dhoom3.

    Predict Rascals, Mausum, Teez, Aarakshan. Rockstar.
    Phir Dekhenge kya hota hai.

  7. Tango
    Tango
    July 29, 2011 at 4:26 AM

    Shillac Don 2 will surely do 150 crore or thereabout from India, even if it is a half decent film.

    About Ra.One it’ll definately cross 100 crore from India, how much more will depend upon what is left of the original script and concept by SRK-Anubhav & Mushtaq.

    For once the timing of 130 minutes is already supposedly 150 minutes.

    Must add here that the 3 director theory by Mumbai mirror et al is just exaggeration as Karan shot for exactly one day and Tarun was there just to replace Morani to help out Anubhav. Yeah all that added bits like Sanju-Priyanka etc. were not a part of the original script. But things happen just like in Ready, where Dutt, Devgan and Kangna did a cameo, being in Thailand at that time for Rascals.

    May be Tarun was not acessible to the reporters (I doubt it as he is a very easily accessible person) but he is to us.

  8. drjayparikh
    drjayparikh
    July 29, 2011 at 4:44 AM

    For Ra One

    If Decent to Good In Worse case scenario
    Wed 15 15
    Thu 15 15
    Fri 18 14
    Sat 19 16
    Sun 22 18
    89 Crore Weekend 78 Crore Weekend

    DON 2

    Fri 15
    Sat 17
    Sun 21
    53 Crore Weekend

  9. Bajirao SINGHAM (rockie)
    Bajirao SINGHAM (rockie)
    July 29, 2011 at 5:28 AM

    @Tango: “Yeah if anybody had got MURDER 2 and SINGHAM outcome right, he/she would have been a great predictor.”

    Well I had predicted SINGHAM will be HUGE … and here are the results … AJAY has proved his SOLO star power… and SINGHAM is a HUGE hit.

    “About BODYGUARD, it will not beat READY, but will be a superhit”
    I am shocked after reading this….. the promo of BG is 100 times better than Ready … + Eid release + Action mv…

    I think Ready/Dabangg both will be crossed easily by BG…. 150cr+ is on hands…

  10. Tango
    Tango
    July 29, 2011 at 5:47 AM

    “Well I had predicted SINGHAM will be HUGE”

    Rockie you are great :-)

    Rockie jokes aside I think all the discussions were based just few stills and bare minimum promos.

    As soon as the first promos of Singham were out all sections of the trade went ballistic.

    BODYGUARD will be superhit but I do not see it beating READY. I stand by it.

    But ho sakta hai I am wrong. Just what I feel I have said. Not that READY is my fav and that is my wish.

    About SINGHAM getting to 100 crore, I don’t think. It’ll best end at 80 crore as of today.

    Remember I had said DB will be 55 crore final from India about 10 days back? Utkal had jumped on me but as per BOI it is 54 after 3, dekho kitna hota hai finally.

  11. Tango
    Tango
    July 29, 2011 at 5:54 AM

    Shillac on Ra.One “Earlier, u seemed really upbeat about the film”

    Yeah I was. You are right. I am a practical person.

    Abhi let us see the final dish! Just hope that all the additional condiments have not altered the end product from Italian to Mexican!

    I can still change my views!

  12. sputnik
    sputnik
    July 29, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    “Bigger the star, bigger the expectation. Bigger the expectation, bigger the scale. And bigger the scale, larger the duration. This is what Shah Rukh Khan’s Ra.One promises when it gets ready to arrive this Diwali. To justify hundreds of crores that have been pumped into the making of this Anubhav Singh directed film, the running length of Ra. One too would be good enough to give audience a complete ‘paisa vasool’ experience.

    “Though the current trend is to make films last not more than two hours, Ra.One would be an exception. It would be a two and a half hour spectacle as Shah Rukh as well as Anubhav believe that there is a lot to be told, something that the audience should not be deprived of, especially since expectations have been sky high”, says a source attached to the film.

    The only other film in the recent times which has actually clocked 150 minutes is Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara and it has turned out to a good success. Even Singham is much longer than two hours and audience don’t seem to mind those extra minutes presenting an overdose of action. On the other hand, one of the bigger hits in last few weeks, Delhi Belly, has been the shortest of them all by clocking under 100 minutes.

    “At the end of the day, it is also about the kind of genre that you are exploring”, an editor remarks in defence of the Shah Rukh Khan starrer. “Ra.One is the first ever sci-fi film of this scale and setting to have been made in Bollywood. Shah Rukh has pumped over Rs. 150 crores in this film and is still counting. It makes sense to present to audience everything which is special about a new world that has been created here. Even Avatar had lasted 162 minutes.”

    Shot for over 125 days, it was only this Monday that Ra.One came to a close with its final schedule lasting for 10 days. While the film was being edited simultaneously over last few months, now comes the challenge of putting everything together in one place and make it a seamless movie watching experience.

    “There is so much to be told in Ra.One”, admits Anubhav, “However both Shah Rukh and I are of the opinion that we should be keeping the film’s length under 150 minutes. Of course it’s a struggle to do that but at the end of the day, it’s the film that will dictate its duration rather than vice versa. Now that the film’s shoot is complete, we should know within next fortnight how the theatrical cut will look like.”

    Given the fact that we didn’t mind Rajinikanth’s antics that lasted for three hours in Robot, there is no reason why Shah Rukh won’t hold our interest for those two and a half hours.”

    http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/features/2011/07/28/7760/index.html

  13. Aloof
    Aloof
    July 29, 2011 at 12:34 PM

    Though i think Ra1 is going to sink. The reassuring thing about this movie is even if it sinks it will sink with a lot of noise.

  14. Aloof
    Aloof
    July 29, 2011 at 12:40 PM

    For a movie to float, the buoyancy principles have to apply. The weight of the object has to be balanced by the force exerted by the fluid. Ra1 density seems to be greater than the fluid.

  15. Tanned Sen
    Tanned Sen
    July 29, 2011 at 1:47 PM

    What nonsense sandy.ready and znmd were sure shot hits for most. It is ridiculous to deliberately post an article from a third grade writer and say he got it right. Less we talk about it the better. As you said, you are free to keep publishing his trash here.

  16. Dj
    Dj
    July 29, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    It is ridiculous to deliberately post an article from a “third grade writer”

    This comment is very strange from you tanned sir. Very unlikely from you. Who are you or I to declare anyone “third grade writer”. Pls don’t mind. I wrote this because i don’t expect this from you.

  17. Tanned Sen
    Tanned Sen
    July 29, 2011 at 5:23 PM

    Dear Dj – I think it is fine to refer to a third person in that form. It is akin to calling a Raja Sen or a Khalid useless.
    You sir have every right to voice your opinion – and I am sorry that I disappointed you. But maybe I am a little disappointed that a lot of trash is being posted on this forum unnecessarily – especially with so much talent available here.

  18. Dino
    Dino
    July 29, 2011 at 9:20 PM

    I dont know who Jayshah is or wht his trackrecord is being new to both the forums(NG and SS) but whoever he is I think prediction of ZNMD is a good one so early on in the year. I for one had zero expectations from ZNMD and it has surprised.

  19. Sneha
    Sneha
    July 29, 2011 at 10:33 PM

    @Shilac –
    My Predictions

    Ra-One – WOM Good – 175cr to 185cr
    Mixed – atleast 150cr to 160cr
    Bad – atleast 135cr to 140cr
    ( My Take – Mixed cos SS my not lap it mch but Has adv of Diwali Release and easily the biggest release i.e160cr to 165cr )

    Don 2 – WOM Good – 135cr to 145cr
    Mixed – 120cr to 130cr
    Bad – 105cr to 115cr
    ( My Take – Mixed as SS amd Family audience appeal is less and might not have a repeat value but has adv of Christmas holidays i.e 125cr to 130cr )

    Bodyguard – WOM Good – 140cr to 150cr
    Mixed – 120cr to 130cr
    Bad – 110cr to 120cr
    ( My Take – Lapped in SS with repeat value and mixed response at the plexes but has the adv of Salman’s craze at hte moment and so might just edge past Dabangg collections due Eid n a huge release )

  20. sputnik
    sputnik
    July 30, 2011 at 1:19 AM

    “Earlier, it was said that only some parts of the film will be converted in 3D but now certain action sequences were especially shot in July 2011 to add to the 3D experience.”

    “In one of the scenes you can also see Shahrukh riding a bike from moon to the earth.”

    What?

    http://www.apunkachoice.com/content/article/sid100006150-shahrukh_khans_raone_to_release_in_3d/

  21. Bilawal
    Bilawal
    November 14, 2011 at 12:16 AM

    Shilac – your predictions for BG and ra.one were perfect.

    Lets see for Don2.

  22. Rosh
    Rosh
    November 14, 2011 at 1:31 AM

    Very interesting thread here. Good predictions on BG and Ra.One Shilac. Just one thing, Don 2 wont be an ATBB at 150 cr. It has to do at least 180 cr to be aconfirmed ATBB. At 170 it will have a disputed verdict. Personally though I dont think it will cross BG

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