15
New Releases
Blue
Blue arrived with the biggest of expectations of all the Diwali releases and at least delivered on its promise of a big opening. Starring Akshay Kumar, Sanjay Dutt, Lara Dutta and Zayed Khan – the actioner took a big start on opening and things looked good for the majority of the Diwali weekend. However, since audience and critical response was taking a beating it came as no surprise when collections fell heavily after the holiday period was over.
Currently with a first week haul of 30.5-32.5Cr – Blue’s collections can be counted as strong considering the competition has made around the same in collections. However, it’s quite clear the film is already showing signs of running on low fuel and a big second week drop is expected. All things the same, Blue is very much in the same category as Kambakht Ishq – a hyped film that could be destined to underperform as early as the second week.
[The Blue collections are nearly impossible to work with. A quick comparison with Kambakht Ishq showed it is lagging slightly hence have gone with 30.5-32.5Cr. But really, there is little to go on.]
All The Best
All The Best had a poor start considering the publicity and casting. Despite this, the Ajay Devgan, Sanjay Dutt and Bipasha Basu starrer is the surprise package of Diwali with a stunning turnaround through the week. The collections are bountiful and the second week will be huge too. Word of mouth picked up quickly after the weekend and favourable reviews were a bonus considering the comedy genre usually takes a beating from critics.
Week 1 All The Best [ATB] vs Week 1 Golmaal Returns [GR]
Mumbai -43% means GR is 43% MORE than ATB in Week 1
Mumbai -43%
Ahmedabad -9%
Shrirampur -57%
Sangli -1587%
Gandhinagar -22%
Naroda 3%
Baroda -19%
Surat -79%
Anand -93%
Bharuch -69%
Nadiad -40%
Vapi 36%
Mehsana 6%
Navsari -13%
Bardoli -102%
Rajkot -91%
Jamnagar -17%
Bhavnagar 14%
Junagadh -72%
Porbandar -20%
Himmatnagar 8%
Pune -89%
Goa -102%
Kolhapur -193%
Solapur -30%
Satara -153%
Sangli -135%
Miraj -145%
Nasik -41%
Gurgaon -524%
Faridabad -638%
Nagpur -652%
Raipur -936%
Indore -68%
Sehore -39%
Jaipur -454%
Kolkatta -4073%
Ajmer -93%
Aurangabad -1562%
The cumulative centre total in 39 centres for ATB = 12.61Cr (ignored 1 centre)
The cumulative centre total in 39 centres for GR = 20.63Cr (ignored 1 centre)
This means that ATB is 61% of GR’s total (12.61/20.63 = 61%)
Using GR’s Week 1 total of 39.0Cr, ATB’s Week 1 = 61% * (39.0) = 23.8Cr
A similar exercise with Sarkar Raaj and Welcome yields 25.1Cr & 24.6Cr respectively
All The Best 1 Week Total = 24.0-25.0Cr(Week 1) = 24.0-25.0Cr
Verdict – Good Opening Week
All The Best is very much a tale of two halves. The first half of the week started on a low note – mainly due to the huge initial response to Blue but once the audiences got a feel of the two films it is All The Best that is clearly emerging victorious. The second half of the week has seen huge collections and the overall first week haul is good and could have been even better if a solo release was given to the film. A total of 50Cr is not a stretch and would constitute a hit total if reached.
Main Aurr Mrs Khanna
It is rare a Salman Khan and Kareena Kapoor starrer could get so sidelined in a clash but that is the case with Main Aurr Mrs Khanna. Though the truth really is the film faltered on advertising the romance as a full Salman release when really it was a Sohail Khan starrer. Collecting only 7.0-7.5Cr, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna is almost certainly a flop after a hugely disappointing week at the box office both critically and audience response wise.
Past Releases
Wake Up Sid
Not surprisingly Wake Up Sid fell massively in its third week. A huge fall of 90% is surprising though and the film has an opportunity to capitalize on Blue’s faltering performance in the current week. Adding a further 0.6-0.7Cr Wake Up Sid now has collected 25.0-25.9Cr – qualifying the Ranbir Kapoor starrer as an above average performer.
January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)
February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)
March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)
May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)
June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)
July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.6 – 66.0Cr (Hit)
August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 21.6 – 23.8Cr (Above Average)
Kaminey : 42.9 – 44.7Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Daddy Cool : 3.6 – 3.9Cr (Flop)
Kissan : 1.2 – 1.4Cr (Flop)
September 2009
Fox : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Aagey Se Right : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Flop)
Three : 0.7 – 0.8Cr (Flop)
Vada Raha : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Baabarr : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Wanted : 55.8 – 58.9Cr (Hit)
Dil Bole Hadippa! : 20.0 – 22.5Cr (Flop)
What’s Your Raashee? : 13.2 – 15.3Cr (Flop)
October 2009
Wake Up Sid : 25.0 – 25.9Cr (Above Average)
Do Knot Disturb : 16.7 – 18.0Cr (Flop)
Acid Factory : 2.8 – 3.0Cr (Flop)
Blue : 30.5 – 32.5Cr (Good Opening Week)
All The Best : 24.0 – 25.0Cr (Good Opening Week)
Main Aurr Mrs Khanna : 7.0 – 7.5Cr (Disastrous Opening Week)
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No yakuza.I can say surely that rnbdj was less than SIK.SIK is around 43.5-44 and rnbdj is around 42.
Yashraj has ...
Farhan said that if they were to cast a lead actress ,it would only be opposite Hrithik.So are both Katrina ...
housefullatbb, This is first week record (Not weekend), First week of Singh Is Kinng was 38,98,19,763, While RNBDJ was ahead ...
Doga,
Yes it seems so at ths moment.. 
Raj, MNIK should end around 73 cr from India, Theatrically. 
Dhoni is one of the best wicket keepers now. Dont complain about the few dropped catches. He has caught some ...
btw - from the FI numbers MNIK has done 68-68.5 cr in 4 weeks in India.
BOI is already 5 cr ...
Well, a universally accepted repeat-watch movie from Hrithik IMO would make way more than 60cr. 
Som 24 October 2009
09:32:05 am
Taran literally has not reported anything for Blue.. What ever be the first week numbers, the 2nd week holds the key..
ATB has put up some very good numbers in Mumbai and Ahmadabad. Should do well in the 2nd week I think.
Tango 24 October 2009
09:37:55 pm
I’m afraid the third week figure for Wake Up Sid is wrong.
Film Information has reported 87.36 lakhs from just 91 prints for week 3, so any figure les than that is just not possible.
Also, due to Diwali releases Wake Up Sid has less number of prints (but still around 160-170) in circulation, which would give it anything from 1.25 crore – 1.50 crore.
So this third week of 0.6 crore – 0.7 crore is atrocious to say the least.
Poor Ranbir I think will have to face many such situations in future I guess.
Som 24 October 2009
09:56:40 pm
I think there could be two cases:
1- FI might have reported all the centers for WUS since it was not playing at that many screens due to diwali releases.
2- If we assume some of the prints are still un reported, then it could be well over 1cr in the third week.
Tango 24 October 2009
10:11:01 pm
There can absolutely be no justification for giving a range less than reported for any film, something that IBOF does on a regular basis.
1) Film Information has reported 87.36 lakhs from just 91 prints and the range here is 0.6-7 crore.
2) How can it be even a rupee less than what the reported numbers are?
3) Even if we assume for a second that Film Information has reported all the prints (which it has not!) it will not justify 0.6-0.7 crore.
I’m afraid Ranbir will have to face this sort of totals in future also.
RAKA 24 October 2009
10:22:06 pm
the total cannot be even a paisa lower then reported centers total.
Taran’s numbers on Blue and WUS is simply not good enough to estimate anything. Both the Blue and WUS numbers are more of guesswork here.
having said that, there is no way of knowing the total number of WUS prints in circulation last week. Instead of speculating the number of prints, the week 3 number for WUS can be estimated from FI reported centers if available.
sandhya 25 October 2009
06:53:17 am
“A huge fall of 90% is surprising though and the film has an opportunity to capitalize on Blue’s faltering performance in the current week. Adding a further 0.6-0.7Cr Wake Up Sid now has collected 25.0-25.9Cr – qualifying the Ranbir Kapoor starrer as an above average performer. ”
Fair enough. Let’s see if Wake Up Sid picks up at all. 25-26 or even 30 would make it above average in my books. Max – semi hit.
But yes, the film has been appreciated by its core audience. Ranbir is unlucky somehow. Both BAH and now WUS were really nice films and should have done better. That way, I think Imran Khan got lucky. Not only was his first film a blockbuster, his next two films got decent openings. It’s another thing that they were dreadful and hence flopped.
sandhya 25 October 2009
06:53:42 am
And thanks for the col Jay
sandhya 25 October 2009
07:31:30 am
Let’s say the numbers are incomplete – I am sure they are, due to non availability of numbers at this point. But even 1.5 crores (at the absolute highest end) for week 3 is still a massive fall and the commentary is hence justified.
Tango 25 October 2009
10:10:48 am
My humble submission as before is giving 0.6-0.7 crore to Wake Up Sid is atrocioous to say the least.
Here is Komal reporting for 91 prints
http://www.thefilmstreetjourna.....ox-office/
So giving even a rupee less than 87.36 lakhs is an un-pardonable act.
There can be only two reasons
1) Bias against Ranbir or
2) The shortcomings of the method.
RAKA 25 October 2009
10:36:52 am
Linear Prioritization is hardly a good way to look at bollywood box office.
Aside, Tango – Can i humbly request you to post this week’s FI scans please?
I need it for my personal calculations. Thanks in advance.
Tango 25 October 2009
11:14:08 am
This weeks Film Information will arrive later this week Raka.
The reported numbers will be exactly as they appear on the FSK link.
I have problems in putting up scans here at NG (due to size issue), but if you can give me an e-mail account I will surely mail you the scans first up.
Angels and Belds 25 October 2009
11:15:42 am
maybe it will be appropriate for this report to be suffixed with a statement admitting that nos may be incomplete.
tho i think this is more a fallacy in the method then any voluntary bias or sleight of hand by Jay.
RAKA 25 October 2009
11:47:23 am
Thanks Tango.
Angels and Demons – I think you are right on the method – and I am speaking from experience here. I used JAy’s method sincerely and got some weird results. What do I esteem some estimates as weird? To me it was weird coz the offsets from producer totals didnt make much sense … Why? coz some estimates were more than producer totals! While in many cases producers advertise over-reported totals, i am yet to see adverts for any under-reported producer total.
hence i concluded linear prioritization gives distorted results. The reason being the big centers contribute way too much to the all india totals than a large number of smaller centers. It is thus fallacious approach to account for same weightage to percentage falls in mumbai and ujjain.
A person doing this for 3 years shud have realised it long ago with minimal mathematical sense. This is no rocket science.
When i tried to derive estimates by grouping different centers (a simplified approach of Rudresh’s stats) i invariably got better results and they made more sense say with any producer total (excepts a rare scam) or with other trade estimates.
I have done this for a number of movies in the past few years, and have a good mind to post them separately.
But there is another issue with this particular report. There have ben numerous times when i felt jay cannot distinguish from what is good data and bad data … he cant filter data. Thats the main reason Rudresh’s estimates are way better from the same data. (Mine is different as I use both FI and TG as my data source while these guys use only TG).
Its not difficult to judge that most of Taran’s WUS data for this week is incomplete. But …
RAKA 25 October 2009
12:05:19 pm
Having said all this – it is still difficult to quantify which is a more precise method … for the simple reason we dont know the true actual figures and computing error % between two estimates is only indicative.
But i do see inconsistency in error % between my estimates and say BOI/IBOS/Jay’s figures … i mean if the error % increases for certain movies with certain stars … then I conclude there is a bias in play from the other source. Eg – My estimates tally 95% with BOI except for SRK movies which are invariably higher at BOI.
Another way of looking at it is that i may have bias in looking at srk movies … But to my knowledge and sincerity i did not and thus I personally dont trust BOI for SRK movies. Such exercise with IBOS or Jay’s numbers becomes equally interesting.
Here is a summary of my findings:
2008
Ghajini – 114.5 cr
Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi – 85.9 cr
Singh is Kinng – 72.8 cr
Jodhaa Akbar – 59.3 cr
Race – 59.1 cr
Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na – 52.1 cr
Golmaal Returns – 51.3 cr
Dostana – 44.3 cr
2007
Om Shanti Om – 77.0 cr
Welcome – 73.2 cr
Taare Zameen Par – 62.0 cr
Chak De India – 62.0 cr
Partner – 61.9 cr
Bhool Bhulaiya – 49.2 cr
Heyy Baby – 47.7 cr
Guru – 45.8 cr
2006
Dhoom 2 – 80.3 cr
Krrish – 72.6 cr
Lage Raho Munnabhai – 71.6 cr
Don – 48.2 cr
Rang De Basanti – 47.7 cr
Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna – 46.2 cr
Tango 25 October 2009
08:34:19 pm
OK