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Achilles



Some interesting titbits here.

We have had some arguments in NG on whether KI did get the multiplex bonus or not … i remember i did calculations to show why it was mathematically implausible … we have seen many sources confirming the same – be it PVR ex-CEO who is now the Reliance Big head, or Economic times to name a few. But then again we had Akshay fans posting and reposting some BOI/IBOS articles on how KI got bonus from plexes and whatnot.

Here we have UTV head confirming that NY,LAK and Kaminey had been able to get the bonus … of couse these plex heads can be publicly lying because of thier bias or propaganda! ;-)

We also see a 29 cr opening week for wanted quoted here … my own calculations from FI and TG separately has yielded 32 cr only (though 34 cr may be the furthest reach for Wanted) … also with a 55% fall in week 2, Wanted in unlikely to have crossed 50 crores in first two weeks (but is close) … doga may not agree but the numbers does suggest this. Its still a hit though, and the most influential one this year because of its single screens business and sustenance in the same.

LINK

When 2009 dawned, the list of films to release this year included some of the most awaited names that were to have helped catapult the film industry out of a recession. Instead, all hopes fell through as big-budget movies like Chandni Chowk to China, Delhi-6, Billu, 8×10 Tasveer and even Academy Award-winning Slumdog Millionaire (in Hindi) turned out to be the surprise duds of the year.

Things finally seem to be looking up for the film industry after a tumultuous 10 months of 2009. According to famed trade analyst Taran Adarsh, this year has seen way too many lean periods, in terms of release windows as well as box-office hits. “Within the first four months of the year, Bollywood was faced with the multiplex-producer standoff. The April to June window was lost,” he explains.

Vinod Mirani, editor of trade magazine Box Office, says that thankfully the year saw its first hit before this phase. “Raaz – The Mystery Continues did good business. In a country starved for movies under the genre, most horror films do well,” he explains. And while certain trade sources debate this, UTV’s Dev.D fared average, bringing in more than Rs 13 crore worth of revenue just before the multiplex standoff.

The three months when no major Bollywood flicks released, was the time that producers used to release their delayed and small-budget films. “Films like Coffee House and Detective Naani came and went as 2009 is clearly not the year for small budget films; last year saw surprise hits like A Wednesday and Mithya,” asserts Adarsh.

Surprisingly, one of the profitable movies of 2009 happens to belong to regional cinema. Mahesh Manjrekar’s Mee Shivajiraje Bhosle Boltoy released in multiplexes during the producer-multiplex war and did tremendous business — making over Rs 25 crore in two months — across Maharashtra. “It would be unfair to assume that the film did well because of the lean period since the movie was critically acclaimed as well,” says Mirani.

Halfway through the year, when the big releases queued up for post-June release, the first one to hit the theatres — Yash Raj Films’ New York, brought in good news, grossing more than Rs 40 crore in the first two weeks.

It was followed by Saif Ali Khan’s Illuminati Productions’ debut film Love Aaj Kal, Nadiadwala’s Akshay Kumar-Kareena Kapoor starrer Kambakkht Ishq and UTV’s film by Vishal Bhardwaj, Kaminey.

But Mirani says that the only real hit of the year is Wanted, which has set new records for the single screens after the advent of multiplexes. “A mass entertainer, it has made Rs 29 crore in its first week,” he counters. “New York, Dev.D and Kaminey have done well but they were budgeted before the recession hit and have not able to meet their targets.”

UTV Movies CEO Siddharth Roy Kapur insists, “New York, Love Aaj Kal and Kaminey are the only three films to have crossed the Rs 40-crore benchmark in week one and two, to make it to the new profit sharing ratios at 50:50 that was decided between the multiplexes and producers during the standoff.”

The latest film to be raking it in is Dharma Production’s Wake Up Sid, which released to packed houses over the weekend. The movie seems to have already crossed the 10 crore mark. “Word of mouth helped the movie perform in the cities but one can’t yet comment on the overall scenario as

it’s an urban concept that may or may not be received well in smaller cities,” says Mirani.

Taking its cue, the industry has now pinned all its hopes on the dozen big films releasing during the festive season: Dharma’s next — Saif Ali Khan-Kareena Kapoor starrer Kurbaan, Ashtavinayak’s Blue which boasts of AR Rahman’s music, Vipul Shah’s London Dreams and Rajkumar Hirani’s 3 Idiots. “There are enough films and given that the festive season has just about begun, they should hopefully make up for the loss.” smiles Adarsh. Hopefully.

There Are 18 Responses So Far. »

  1. ACHILLES 7 October 2009
    09:41:20 am

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    Some interesting titbits here.

    We have had some arguments in NG on whether KI did get the multiplex bonus or not … i remember i did calculations to show why it was mathematically implausible … we have seen many sources confirming the same – be it PVR ex-CEO who is now the Reliance Big head, or Economic times to name a few. But then again we had Akshay fans posting and reposting some BOI/IBOS articles on how KI got bonus from plexes and whatnot.

    Here we have UTV head confirming that NY,LAK and Kaminey had been able to get the bonus … of couse these plex heads can be publicly lying because of thier bias or propaganda! ;-)

    We also see a 29 cr opening week for wanted quoted here … my own calculations from FI and TG separately has yielded 32 cr only (though 34 cr may be the furthest reach for Wanted) … also with a 55% fall in week 2, Wanted in unlikely to have crossed 50 crores in first two weeks (but is close) … doga may not agree but the numbers does suggest this. Its still a hit though, and the most influential one this year because of its single screens business and sustenance in the same.

  2. Doga 7 October 2009
    01:11:18 pm

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    ACH i have compared BOI and Your blog numbers and they are 95% same for most movies.Indian BO system is complex, most are trying to their best extimations, numbers could be off 2-3 cr here and there but in the end the real picture emerges.

    29 cr for wanted is similar to 38 cr number.

    Some are also calling wanted average+, but in the long term we will know what impact a movie makes, for good or for bad.

  3. Doga 7 October 2009
    01:17:00 pm

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    Wanted has done 1.25 cr approx second week in East Punjab

    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/npages.php?page=shownews&articleid=1187&nCat=news

    Around 3.95 cr approx in Delhi/UP

    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/npages.php?page=shownews&articleid=1189&nCat=news

    These are detailed numbers Ach and will help you in your estimation.

    BOI has 17.33 cr now for wanted second week, lets see how many other centres they can furnish detailed data for.

    http://www.boxofficeindia.com/.....e=earnings

    Numbers are equal to or little higher than Partner at this stage, the fall overall is around 50% in second week.

    Am expecting around 60 cr in the total run.

  4. Qalandar 7 October 2009
    01:44:55 pm

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    Not to mention that 60 crores for this film means a lot more tickets sold than many other 60 crore films. I think this would be one of the most creditable box office performances in a long time.

  5. ACHILLES 7 October 2009
    02:09:51 pm

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    Wanted is not an average from any way no matter how one may chose to look at it … and i dont believe in plus minus ratings … its a clean hit and may even get to 60 cr … but a 55+ expected total by the end of its run deserves respect when it comes from mostly single screens and from a star long considered to be a spent force.

  6. Doga 7 October 2009
    02:11:36 pm

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    Yes Q Bhai, if indeed Wanted doesnot cross 17.5 cr from Multiplexes then a case can be made for Wanted doing the best business in single screens since Gadar(Ghajini could be close or may be equal).

  7. Doga 7 October 2009
    02:13:27 pm

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    Actually Wanted might fall way short of the 17.5 cr plex number.

  8. Doga 7 October 2009
    02:17:48 pm

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    Ach, Rudresh has done quite good analysis on Wanted numbers against Ghajini,Rab ne and Love aaj kal and he had his numbers between 34.01 and 35.85 cr.

    He has 50+ cr number by end of second week.

    There are good chances that Wanted has sustained very well in 3rd week too, so lets see.

  9. ACHILLES 7 October 2009
    05:26:51 pm

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    Doga – I saw Rudresh posting Wanted comparisons with LAK/RNBDJ/etc and giving 34-35 cr estimates … it never convinced me … Rudresh did all that effort using Taran’s week 1 reporting which was all incomplete ones … those numbers cud be interpreted as anything between 31-35 cr … so vague was Taran’s reporting.

    Sadly FI numbers on wanted do not indicate the higher end … it still gives me 32 cr.

    Rudresh for some reason will not look at FI numbers when Taran does bad reporting in few cases … same thing happened with LAK week 2 … while indiafm numbers indicated a 15 cr week 2, FI data indicated 13 cr with more centers … i put a comment on his blog, but he never responded.

    I dunno why Rudresh or Jay are usually so reluctant to re-estimate when there is few comparable centers from Taran … when u r estimating i dont see the reason not to use more data when it is available. Even during KI i had to re-estimate KI week 1 from 30 to 33.7 cr when FI numbers came along … Sat estimates can only be rough unless Taran does comprehensive reporting.

  10. Doga 7 October 2009
    05:48:41 pm

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    Ach , did you take a look at BOI numbers for first week, they were quite detailed.

    Also i tried my best, there is no way again to decide if the movie fell 45% or 55% in week 2.

    Taran has 18% fall for mumbai, lol.

    Anyways Wanted has done what it was supposed to do and more, so its fine.

  11. Doga 7 October 2009
    05:49:07 pm

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    By the way read this,

    The curious case of Wanted at Liberty Cinema, Delhi:

    Liberty, as most dilliwallahs would know is one of the premium single screens in Delhi with a capacity of about one thousand. In week one they did the mistake of not screening WANTED (instead they had DBH). In second week they realized the mistake and started screening WANTED. But in the third they removed WANTED and started DKD. But now in the fourth, they are screening WANTED again. Wierd aint it?

  12. Doga 7 October 2009
    06:01:58 pm

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    Also the reason i wont defend Wanted verdict’s is because everyone may have their legit reasons.

    Some are calling it Average, Tango Bhai has given Semihit verdict and so on. Going just be Nett these may be right verdicts.(Unless it indeed does 60 cr, then probably all will agree to Hit)

    But the lopsided kind of business wanted has done in single screens vis a vis Plexes, has never been seen before.

  13. Qalandar 7 October 2009
    06:05:22 pm

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    I am no trade expert, but I don’t think anyone in the public is calling it “average” or semi-hit, nor is anyone in the media doing so. In terms of a boost for Salman Khan and Boney Kapoor, WANTED has certainly provided that and more. Which was the last Salman film that got non-fans (like me, and 2-3 other friends of mine) to go watch it in the theater? I can say that for me the last one was Partner, and I try and catch Dhawan films in the theater in any event…

  14. Doga 7 October 2009
    06:06:25 pm

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    Also Ach, i had talked to Arjun Kapoor(Son of Boney) and he confirmed to me that they are recieving distributer shares in access of 70-80% from most most single screens.

    Some better screens are giving 60%.

    But lets not talk about distributer share anymore, it becomes quite hot topic here, lol.

  15. ACHILLES 7 October 2009
    06:11:44 pm

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    Doga – i wont vouch for BOI numbers when they dont match with FI (eg Delhi) … for week 2, Taran’s mumbai number looks like gross, if u want details check FI … FI week 1 and Week 2 numbers indicate 55% overall drop.

  16. ACHILLES 7 October 2009
    06:15:37 pm

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    last time i talked to some single screen owners they said 50-60% … i dont know if he was saying the truth or bluffing, it may even be negotiable depending on movies? i am not sure on this.

    btw, using Taran’s vague reporting %drop cannot be determined with any precision or confidence from indiafm data.

  17. Doga 7 October 2009
    06:19:51 pm

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    Q Bhai, i am no longer concerned about what verdicts anyone gives Wanted, because i know the reality, lol.

  18. Doga 7 October 2009
    06:23:39 pm

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    Yeah Ach it varies, some elite single screen owners may be give 50-60%.

    But most are on Rental Basis, if a movie performs very bad they still charge the rental and thus the share might even be like 30-40%, but if a movie strikes like Wanted did(or movies of the yore), then it can shoot upto 70-80%.

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