Estimate of Chak De India,Ghajini and Singh Is King

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72 | July 30, 2009 at 10:35 am | 123 views | NaachGaana Bol| Share

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SV had sent to my email. Considering his effort, decided to put it up here.

SINGH IS KING and GHAJINI

CHAK DE INDIA

“Kanchivaram” wins the best film, “Chak De India” for wholesome entertainment at 55th National Awards

Two years after delivering a hit on the hockey fields with CHAK DE INDIA, Shimit Amin returns, this time with business as the field of play. Yet again, he delivers a product with finesse. ROCKET SINGH appeals, endears, and warms the cockles of one’s heart.

My take on CHAK DE INDIA (Hindi, 2007)

Singh is King… singh is king.. singh is KING!!!

Target Ghajini!

There Are 72 Responses So Far. »

Som 30 July 2009
10:39:53 am

Thanks for your sincerity, SV.

But tell me where did you get the 35.68cr for Om Shanti Om?

sv 30 July 2009
10:43:13 am

oh,som for that I have to give OSO’s calculation.But you can assume it is 35.68 for now.

Som 30 July 2009
10:46:31 am

Ok. Do make it a point to come up with Om Shanti Om’s estimate. Btw keep doing it.

Gorilla 30 July 2009
10:49:37 am

I sincerely hope an Akshay fan becomes a Box Office numerologist.

We already have -
Jay (Aamir, Abhishek)
Ach (Hrithik)
Others (SRK)

There is noone to defend poor Akki with fudged numbers splashed over an excel sheet. In every movie, his numbers have gone underreported by these other star’s numerologists.
God, give more power to SV.
SV be ready to be pounced upon. I am with you financially, morally and if required physically. Just raise an SOS and Gorilla will be there with its mighty paws and black money generated from selling houses in Dubai and London.

rks 30 July 2009
10:49:44 am

Good work SV. This may not yield the best result but done sincerely would give good average range with similar movie.

ps: For discussion in the other heated thread – This is a good proof why Jay’s method is simple and easy to understand and people can do it. To prove someone is wrong, or biased, put a XLS and show the numbers.

ps1: SV- A KI comparison is needed

sv 30 July 2009
10:50:24 am

Ghajini is accurate although centers are not named.That is because we have maximum on record.

Gorilla 30 July 2009
10:52:13 am

SV, do remember that unlike others with excels, you have to be absolutely sincere – no bias for Akshay. You have to set standards for others. Akshay and his fans have always raised high standards and have spoken against wrongful doings and intentions.

Gorilla 30 July 2009
10:52:50 am

Good work SV.

Som 30 July 2009
11:00:47 am

Tango, It is high time that you also come up with your methodology and put every speculation to rest.I guess this much you can do as a senior NG member.

Don 30 July 2009
11:03:13 am

LOL @ rks… The desperation to make the point Jay is great..blah blah…is showing.. now you are jumping on SV’s bandwagon.. Enjoy the ride

I thought in your prev life on NG as ‘moderator’ you did not like when people took the arguments to a diff thread… i see you are doing it here, OFC in your own subtle way..

rks 30 July 2009
11:05:50 am

Don – Aap kabhi kabhi aate ho “ajnabee” ban kar..If you want to debate then please be active and debate or I will pass a cursory statement that all you say is a big CRAP

Don 30 July 2009
11:11:42 am

rks – All i say is crap.. but at least i don’t try to hide it I don’t know WTH are you inferring/implying by your snide use of “ajnabee”.. let me know what it is.. i will respond..

rks 30 July 2009
11:12:13 am

Don – “I thought in your prev life on NG as ‘moderator’ you did not like when people took the arguments to a diff thread… i see you are doing it here, OFC in your own subtle way..”

subtle is good because Humne bhi 4 saal college mei padha hai..Pehle saal mei itni Gaaliyan seekha di hai ki agar muh kholaa jaai to log bhaag jaayenge

rks 30 July 2009
11:14:28 am

Don – “let me know what it is.. i will respond..”

You know it.

Don 30 July 2009
11:14:58 am

rks – bring it on

Don 30 July 2009
11:16:09 am

rks – What do i know ?

rks 30 July 2009
11:22:54 am

“bring it on ”
Let me search for technical introduction on web. If I find it I will mail you. We were suppose to learn by heart.

Don 30 July 2009
11:25:45 am

whatever…

Tango 30 July 2009
11:40:46 am

SV I just hope you have not used a patented method.

If this is a new one, mujhe bolna I’ll get bharat sarkar recognition for it.

We know it is done I mean patenting. Har saal ek do patents we get done of our project prototype models.

rks 30 July 2009
03:02:21 pm

Don – I am sorry, if I hurt you. It was not my intention. I thought that you were pulling my leg since yesterday.

ACHILLES 30 July 2009
03:15:17 pm

SV – ANY methodology will indicate SIK had opened better than RNBDJ … Congratulations to Jay and his camp for another ‘copy-cat’!

Both SIK and Welcome had been under-reported by certain sites that many swear by here … my method always gave higher totals and opening figures for these two movies than most other sources. But since KI has not done well, hence anyone looking at its numbers are biased and on a campaign and whatnot.

ACHILLES 30 July 2009
03:16:17 pm

btw – why not give us the excel on KI so that we can take your numbers and ‘hit’ claim a bit seriously?

Som 30 July 2009
07:42:06 pm

Agentsmith @ SB:How come a movie with higher gross would do less nett.? Singh is King did 68cr gross where as Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi did 70cr gross in the first week in India.

neelu 30 July 2009
08:20:19 pm

Yehi to main bhi soch rahi hoon. And is it not important to see how both films ended too? One lost people a bunch of money and the other is a blockbuster. It is not the beginning that is important, but the finish.

sv 30 July 2009
10:25:51 pm

Thanks all.I just estimated randomly.I am not using a patented method.MY numbers don’t have a range.We don’t get jay’s numbers even if we use this method.This is the simplest direct method.

Som 30 July 2009
10:30:57 pm

SV: You are comparing two movies with FI data, Jay does the same with Taran’s data. That is the difference.

RAJ 30 July 2009
10:45:21 pm

SV you have put RNBDJ figures as 42.2 cr (producers source)What is SIK producre figures..? Why not estimate RNBDJ figures in isolation as well???

Don 30 July 2009
11:13:20 pm

rks – “Don – I am sorry, if I hurt you. It was not my intention. I thought that you were pulling my leg since yesterday.”

I want to believe that it was not intentional, but somehow the fact you took so long to respond to the email and here, makes me think it was intentional. You do not have to be subtle any more… you can dish out what ever dirt you have on me, here. Even i want to hear it out, before i take sabbatical from NG.

I made the observation yesterday that all BO discussions end up in personal jabs, and i guess i was not wrong.

PS : Please don’t tell me that you were busy @ work, you were at SB when all this was happening.

sv 30 July 2009
11:56:15 pm

Raj,I went by distribution share of 23.32 cr forst wek of Rnbdj.55%of 42.4 is 23.32 crores.Since yashraj also gave 42 cr
I went by 42.4 crores.Yes it is BOI propaganda that rnbdj is 44 cr.It is not even reaching 43cr.

neelu,rab ne did 9 crores more than sik

Thanks gorilla,There will be no bias for Akshay.The best numbers will be taken either from taran or FI or BOI.That will be for all films.Every film should be estimated for the maximum.

neelu 31 July 2009
12:04:36 am

SV – distributor share is the same for multiplex vs. single screens? How do you figure that? And I doubt the final numbers too because they are just thrown out with no data.

“The best numbers will be taken either from taran or FI or BOI.That will be for all films.Every film should be estimated for the maximum.”

That is not what you are doing for the 44 cr number from BOI are you? Plan fails at step one then.

RAJ 31 July 2009
12:10:13 am

SV,

Either you are severely confused or you are confusing us….Kindly get consistent figures for all movies then and then only people ‘ll take you seriously..Else you will be a laughing stock out here….

RAJ 31 July 2009
12:12:15 am

“”Raj,I went by distribution share of 23.32 cr forst wek of Rnbdj.55%of 42.4 is 23.32 crores.Since yashraj also gave 42 cr
I went by 42.4 crores.Yes it is BOI propaganda that rnbdj is 44 cr.It is not even reaching 43cr.”"

I just dont understand what you are trying to figure out….

I am ok with your methodology as long as its consistent and same for all movies..You just cant hand pick one movie and use one methodology and other methodology for other movie…

rks 31 July 2009
12:33:34 am

Don – Please check your mail.

sv 31 July 2009
12:38:50 am

Raj,let yashraj declare rabne did 44 crores then we can talk.Let them delcare that their film took the biggest opening.
Neelu,that’s an estimate.Before 2009 that was the first week share.And 42 is the standard figure.No need to argue more.

sv 31 July 2009
12:44:14 am

Also,there is only one methodology here.Incase taran or FI is not consistemt, BOI numbers will be used but that is rare.
FI is most of the time right.

neelu 31 July 2009
12:49:12 am

No need to argue more? Says who? Tell us what the distributor share is in multiplexes vs single screens. Or we will argue. ROFL!!! Looks like you want to shout in a forest with no one listening.

RAJ 31 July 2009
12:50:09 am

SV,

Your biasness comes to fore..I have neves said that Rab ne grossed 44 cr..I am neither arguing in favor or against your estimates..My point is you have to clearly show us your methodology,have to be consistent for all movies..Thats it…

Else you will still be a laughing stock you used to be..

Som 31 July 2009
01:29:48 am

“Yes it is BOI propaganda that rnbdj is 44 cr.It is not even reaching 43cr.”

SV,BOI never came up with 44cr for Rab Ne. I think you are wrong here. It is fine if you have taken Yash Raj’s total of 42cr and accordingly arrived at the SIK’s figure.But the BOI thing is not right.

Som 31 July 2009
01:40:33 am

“My point is you have to clearly show us your methodology,have to be consistent for all movies..Thats it…”

Raj, SV’s methodology is on the table for all of us to see. He has just compared two movies with the FI data, that is it.We will also get the same result.Nothing wrong in his estimate as such. But it is a different thing this comparison methodology has its limitations when we try to estimate all India figure on the basis of 30-40 odd centers. If done correctly, it can give a good reasonable estimate if not 100% right. Anyway it is just an “estimate”, not absolute, so there could be 1-2cr difference here and there from what the movie could have done in reality. KI happened to be an exception when we saw 8-9cr difference because the number quoted by the Producer(42cr) was fake at the first place.

RAJ 31 July 2009
02:46:39 am

Som,

I am eagerly waiting SV to come up with the estimate of KI…

sv 31 July 2009
09:22:10 am

Oh,that 44 cr thing is not directed at you raj.I was just referring to BOi estimate.
Som,BOI stated 44.5 crores for rab ne.That is just before ghajini was released.Anycase everything was forgotten when ghajini was released.

sv 31 July 2009
09:23:04 am

BOI gets its centers right but their total etimate is sometimes wrong.

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
09:33:52 am

SV – a simple question … you use Jay’s method to prove SIK opened more than RBNDJ … why dont u use the same method for KI? For KI u gave some excuses that data is incomplete … in that case your this analysis may also bewrong because RNBDJ data can be similarly incomplete? You are trapped inside your own logic!

anyways, BOI has 42 cr for RNBDJ opening (not 44) … but they have 40 cr for SIK … numbers dont support BOI at all … in reality SIK is likely to had opened 1-2 cr more than RNBDJ … but this analysis hardly proves that point when you ignore this same method for KI so that you call KI is a hit/semihit or what have you.

Anyways, another important aspect of this SIK-RNBDJ debate is that SIK is likely to have done better in single screens than RNBDJ because of which SIK may have had a higher net with a lower gross.

sv 31 July 2009
09:39:48 am

First BOI had sik at 44,rnbdj at 44.5 crores.Later they changed to 39 and 40.
If we use BOI numbers we will get 36 crores for KI.So 36 crores is possible for KI.

Som 31 July 2009
09:46:01 am

“First BOI had sik at 44,rnbdj at 44.5 crores.Later they changed to 39 and 40.”

No you are just plain wrong here. BOI initially had 44.5cr and 41cr but later changed it to 39.72cr and 42.19cr for Singh Is King and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi respectively.

sv 31 July 2009
09:55:50 am

som,sik at 43.77 and rnbdj at 42 cr first.then rabne at 44.5 cr.tThen everything changed again.Look at jay shah column on rabne opening.

Don 31 July 2009
10:03:46 am

rks – Got the email. Will respond later in the day.

Som 31 July 2009
10:07:57 am

SV: Let me tell you on the 2nd Friday since SIK’s release, BOI came up with a 44.5cr estimate but then on 2nd Tuesday,their weekly chart showed it standing at 43.77cr. Later again it was changed to 39.72cr when they made changes to few movies.

With Rab Ne they never came up with a 44.5cr figure. First it was reported 41cr by them,later changed it to 421.9cr.

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
10:17:44 am

Its plain stupid to point fingers at someone for correcting estimates – one can argue against the corrected number, who bothers about a number that BOI says was wrong in the first place?

I am not saying they dont need anymore corrections.

Som 31 July 2009
10:49:55 am

Agentsmith: The assumption of Singh Is King doing better than Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi at single screens is not correct. HERE is why.

sv 31 July 2009
10:57:11 am

Comment by Som on 25 December 2008:

LINK

Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi has done business of around 67 crore nett in 13 days. The second week has been rock steady until the release of Ghajini today as collections fell due to much lower screenings.

The film is the biggest hit of 2008 and the first universal blockbuster of the year. The film is the biggest hit in every circuit of India apart from Delhi/UP, East Punjab, Bihar and Rajasthan but of course things may change with the release of Ghajini.

http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....-01122008/

—————-

Rab ne can’t do 67 crores in 13 days if first week is not 44.5 crores.As we all know second week is 23 crores.

Som 31 July 2009
11:19:38 am

I think SV is right this time. BOI did come up with a 44.5cr claim for Rab Ne. I don’t have the LINK but this what they had to say:

Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi has netted a new first week record of 44.50 crore nett for all India business. The collections have been excellent in West Bengal and South while Delhi/UP and East Punjab is only second to Singh Is Kinng. The film is also sustaining very well.

But the record may not last long as Ghajini may crush this record and and if things go as planned even a 60 crore week one is not out of the question as it goes for the kill to recover most of its cost in week one. Ghajini would have to see a crash of epic proportions for Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi to still hold the record by year end.

rks 31 July 2009
11:43:16 am

Yes, I think BOI has removed that page. I tried searching but could not find it but there are enough comments in NG database
Som
Ach
Neelu

here is SIK’s 44.5 claim by BOI BOI-SIK

Som 31 July 2009
11:58:12 am

Thanks Rks. These are valuable links to substantiate BOI’s “keep changing” claims during SIK and Rab Ne.

neelu 31 July 2009
12:00:12 pm

Arre baba, estimated, then revised – is this any different from what our current BO experts do? And if we dig out old predictions about films then we can have enough laughs for the whole weekend!

rks 31 July 2009
01:28:08 pm

Saturday numbers are estimate and they probably are revised by tuesday with more data. Even that is an estimate but a better one. Any more changes, is a two edged sword. If they don’t change then the wrong numbers would be there on website. If they are flexibale enough and admit mistake then they would be blamed that they don’t know what they are doing.

neelu 31 July 2009
01:32:43 pm

They could use the standard line of “refined the model to make it better”!!

Som 31 July 2009
01:40:49 pm

On a lighter note, have a look at it.

Unintentionally Funny, Must-Watch Bollywood Movies: Kambakkht Ishq

neelu 31 July 2009
01:48:31 pm

Som – this desreved pride of place on NG front page.

Som 31 July 2009
01:52:59 pm

Done!

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
02:14:13 pm

LOL … BOI has a model? Wow thats great news … can someone explain that? Also what ‘refinement’ they did?

Its an uphill task to defend BOI’s one-directional discrepancies – the defenders have no idea what BOI is doing in the first place!

RKS – i never said that BOI did not try to push a 44 cr opening for RNBDJ … but if SV wants to compare his one movie comparison theory with BOI (not sure what is the need to do that), then at least he shud go with the current data.

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
02:23:56 pm

“The assumption of Singh Is King doing better than Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi at single screens is not correct.”

maybe … i dont have access to any data as such to come to any conclusion … but there might be a answer in the differential between entertainment tax in plex and screens and how SIK and RNBDJ behaved wrt single screen and plex independently.

rks 31 July 2009
02:24:14 pm

Ach – I just provided the links. I don’t have any position one way or the other (SIK and RNBDJ).

neelu 31 July 2009
02:25:29 pm

I am pretty sure that BOI just imagine stuff and then put up numbers. Just like all other sites and analyses their numbers seem random, debatable and prone to change. Since they are THE site all look to, they have no need to publicize their model, just like Komal Nahata. They are already an accepted BO reference. That is why when people’s randomly altered numbers match BOI, it is considered some kind of triumph.

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
02:26:42 pm

rks – i know, my jibe was not at you but BOI’s so called model … i am really interested to know what model can account for its inconsistencies.

neelu 31 July 2009
02:28:12 pm

rks – the jibe was at my jibe on “continuously revised models”!!!

ACHILLES 31 July 2009
02:28:52 pm

Who considers a triumph if their numbers match with BOI or IBOS or XYZ? Alice in Wonderland?

Agree on Nahata though, he and Adarsh have their own trade journals and what they say or publish has the widest audience.

neelu 31 July 2009
02:30:09 pm

Or I should at my “perceived jibe” – because everything of a scientific nature has to be changed or revised, otherwise it cannot accomodate new knowledge.

neelu 31 July 2009
02:31:38 pm

A previous thread discusses this at length so I have no need to regrind what already went through the mill several times.

rks 31 July 2009
02:43:40 pm

Even Nahatas and Tarans should publish their source of data (If it is from distributor or cinema hall owner). Like all the calculations Ach, Rud or Jay make explicit reference to source of data. Thus abdicating themselves of any discrepancies in those numbers.

ps: Similar to citations in scholarly article.

Som 31 July 2009
07:35:18 pm

On Nahata, he never claims any numbers unless he is being provided with complete collections from distributors/producer.Same with Taran. Whenever he claims any number,it is mostly the producer’s total which he simply quotes.

Boxoffice India on the other hand does get numbers from the distributors but as they have already said it is never complete, they usually don’t get the complete collections from each and every cinema. As a result they try to make an estimate of the unreceived cinemas which also makes their claimed numbers nothing more than an “estimate”. And regarding calculating the numbers of the unreceived cinemas, I guess BOI must have some idea about the capacity of that theater, prints in circulation and the average occupancy through out the week.

sv 31 July 2009
09:34:09 pm

The difference between I and jay is that I take into account all important centers from every circut.
Many totals of jay don’t have delhi or kolkata.
The following centers are necessarily needed for right estimation.

Mumbai
Ahmedabad
Nasik
Delhi
Gurgaon
Noida
Ghaziabad or kanpur or Lucknow
Faridabad
Nagpur
Indore
jaipur
Kolkata
Hyderabad or Bangalore

If any of these centers is not reported there is bound to be error.
If these centers are also reported then the estimation will be very accurate.

Rajkot
Meerut
Chandigadh
Ajmer
Raipur
ujjain
gwalior
guwahati
mangalore
chennai

The estimation will be very accurate and error doesn’t
exceed 10-20 lakhs.

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