Qalandar’s pieces on Election-2009

Som |

188 | May 24, 2009 at 5:00 am | 138 views | NaachGaana Bol| Share

Hello there! If you are new here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.

The final Indian election results are in — here are the state-by-state results, and the nationwide tallies. Perhaps most significant — though often overlooked — here are the nationwide vote-shares of the principal parties. And in case you’ve been living under a rock these past couple of days, the Congress-led UPA alliance has convincingly defeated its rivals, principally the BJP-led NDA alliance; the final margin was far greater than in 2004.

The question is: why, and what do the results mean? It is a question one must hasten to ask, before it is spun every which way, and ultimately into conventional wisdom. This sort of puff-piece, suggesting that the youth-vote factor helped push the Congress across the finishing line, but devoid of hard data (such as, for instance, what proportion of the electorate consisted of young voters in the 2009 elections), is quite typical of the Indian media. Not to mention murmurs from within the NDA that the projection of hardline Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a possible future PM might have hurt the coalition (the NDA’s oficial candidate, L.K. Advani, was 81, after all). And certainly there will be no shortage of verbiage explaining the results as a “victory for secularism”, or as the triumph of “vote-bank politics” (read: the specter of en bloc voting by Muslims as somehow illegitimate), or as a sign of the “growing maturity” of an Indian electorate that has shown greater interest in economic and infrastructure development than in communitarian appeals. Evidently, if you thought the country’s diversity, its plethora of political parties, and the fractured nature of the electorate (the Congress and BJP combined received fewer than half the votes cast) would give the punditocracy pause, you were wrong.

In the end, my (tentative) inclination is to read the election results as the reward for a moderation that was not just ideological but temperamental: the principal Congress leaders generally seemed relatively calm and unruffled over the course of the campaign, as indeed they had appeared over the preceding five years. Thus, while both major parties spoke of stability, the likes of Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, seemed to exude it — remarkably, the party didn’t lose its poise even in the aftermath of Mumbai attack last year (undoubtedly aided by the fact that the urban public’s disgust with the status quo was general vis-a-vis all politicians, as opposed to specific to the Congress). To be sure, Advani himself was not lacking in poise, but the BJP definitely sent more mixed signals: extolling development before the national media, but firmly standing by hate-mongers like Varun Gandhi and Ashok Sahu; talking up its own discipline and cohesiveness, even as the part was riven by in-fighting and jockeying by younger leaders none too thrilled to see Modi anointed as heir apparent in the media; and generally floundering for coherence, going so far as to bash an Indo-US nuclear deal that the party had itself championed when in power.

The second point I’d like to make concerns India’s rural voters, specifically, the populist measures touted by the Congress/UPA. For the second national election in a row, the Congress has devoted more attention to the economic concerns of rural Indians than the BJP has — and has reaped the rewards. This isn’t to say that the Congress’ commitment to economic liberalization is any more or less than the BJP’s (there isn’t much to choose between the parties on that front these days), but that the Congress is more comfortable with the realization that public support for the sort of cautious, fits-and-starts liberalization India has seen since 1991, will not endure if the rural poor do not see some immediate benefits from the political dispensations championing that liberalization. To the extent the BJP has tried to take small town and rural voters along, it has historically tried to do so by means of cultural issues (such as the Babri mosque/Ramjanambhoomi temple movement). Increasingly, however, that sort of bi-polar mobilization, of a Hindu identity in opposition to a Muslim other imagined to be receiving preferential treatment from the Indian state, has proven difficult in the seat-rich states of the Hindi heartland, as caste-based parties have undermined the plausibility of the BJP’s narrative. The Congress has shown signs of picking up the rural baton on economic grounds, and so far appears to have profited as a result.

Perhaps the two points are not unrelated: Shekhar Gupta (editor of the Indian Express) summed it up well on television when he eschewed the grand narratives of “secularism” and “development” in favor of an explanation that the Indian electorate has, over the past few years, tended to vote for parties who run campaigns addressing the public’s aspirations, not its resentments. While the recent history of India hardly affords room for complacency — it was less than a year ago that large-scale communal violence in Orissa killed dozens and displaced tens of thousands; and 2008 was the worst year on record as far as terrorism was concerned, with serial blasts in cities across the country — the political atmosphere does seem a shade less shrill than it used to be in the decade leading up to the Gujarat pogroms of 2002 and beyond. I wouldn’t ascribe any permanence to this softening of the edges, nor a tendency toward ever-increasing moderation, but Gupta’s comment does capture the tenor of the moment. Given where the country has been in the recent past, and where it could easily go, I’ll chalk that up as a victory of sorts.

LINK 1

I wrote recently that an electoral wake-up call for the Left Front in West Bengal would be good for the progressive political space in India. As it turns out, West Bengal’s voters appear to have delivered far more than a wake-up call in the parliamentary elections: although results aren’t official yet, the Left Front appears set to record its worst Lok Sabha performance in decades, with (according to NDTV) the core constituent party — the CPI(M) — on course to record its worst performance since its very first election. In the wake of Nandigram and Singur, the wheel has certainly turned: today it is the CPI(M) that is associated with the cause of urban, pro-private enterprise voters, and the Trinamool Congress that has taken up cudgels on behalf of the small farmers the CPI(M) first took for granted, then brutally tried to shunt aside in Nandigram and Singur. The ripple effects have ranged far and wide, beyond those two districts (the fact that the anti-CPI(M) vote wasn’t split between the Congress and Trinamool this time around surely helped), and the CPI(M) will know it is in for the fight of its life as far as the 2011 state assembly elections are concerned. The party machinery remains formidable, and it has recovered from setbacks before, so the two Congress parties would be well-advised not to celebrate prematurely, but come 2011, the CPI(M) will surely face its toughest test yet. The interesting question in the run-up to those elections is what lessons the Left Front will draw from its 2009 electoral disaster (nationwide, it is on course to win fewer than half the seats it won in 2004), and whether the Nandigram/Singur aftermath has permanently tarnished its chances of going back to its pro-rural poor stance. I suspect not beyond the two directly affected districts, but only time will tell. But one thing is clear: if the Left Front is to hold on in West Bengal two years from now, another ideological contortion is called for. That should make the members of the party’s Politburo happy; whether it gladdens the heart of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya, the foremost capitalist among the comrades, is another matter. Already there are rumors that the knives might be out in the politburo for “Brand Buddha” — the Left’s post-election maneuvers promises to be more exciting than anything in its election campaign.

May 17 UPDATE: It would, however, be premature to write the Left Front’s obituary in West Bengal. While the Trinamool Congress increased its voter-share from a little over 21% in 2004 (see here, pg. 126; the party’s abbreviation is “AITC”) to over 31% in 2009 (select “West Bengal” in the drop-down menu here), a stunning 50% shift, that is still less dramatic than its seat gain, from 1 in 2004 to 19 this time around (and that vote-share was almost certainly helped by the fact that the Congress and Trinamool pooled their resources in the 2009 elections). And the Left Front remains the political formation with the largest vote-share (although the point made above, about Trinamool and the Congress joining forces, could be read to mean that the Left’s premier position is artificial: the combined vote-share of Trinamool and the Congress was quite close to that of the Left in 2009; select “West Bengal” in the dropdown menu here).

LINK 2

I’ll admit it: the Congress looks set to win a lot more seats in Uttar Pradesh than I (or anyone else) had expected. [NDTV is currently projecting around 20 seats for the Congress in the 80-seat contingent the state sends to the Indian Parliament, more than twice as many as the party won in 2004.] The big question is whether this heralds some sort of revival for the Congress in India’s most populous state, or if it is just a blip, with 20 seats basically the Congress’ “limit” in the state — too early to tell, although it speaks volumes about the extent to which the Congress has fallen away in the Hindi heartland over the last two decades, that losing three-quarters of the seats in U.P. seems like a stunningly good result for the Congress in the state.

But certainly I am chastened enough by these results to lay off on pooh poohing the Congress’ U.P. prospects for — oh, a few days. To the extent this mini-revival is due to real party-building efforts at the grassroots by Rahul Gandhi (as I write this the Congress’ Anand Sharma is on air giving credit to the Gandhi scion for his work in U.P.; it’s impossible to know how seriously one can take these sorts of pronouncements, given the culture of sycophancy that is by now intrinsic to the experience of being a Congressman), I might well have under-estimated Gandhi’s taste for the unglamorous grind. If so, that would be a faint glimmer of hope, beyond these election results — Indian democracy can only benefit from healthier political party structures, that aren’t simply extensions of the leader at the party’s core (i.e., structures of the sort that may be seen at present only in the Left Front and the BJP — although the influence of various Sangh organizations on the latter is of course highly problematic). Who knows, perhaps the Gandhi family might even decide democracy is a good idea within the Congress party.

May 17 UPDATE: Here’s some more color in response to the various media pronouncements about the Congress’ revival in Uttar Pradesh (click on the link, select Uttar Pradesh from the drop-down menu and check out the various parties’ voter-share): in the sort of disheartening result the first-past-the-post electoral system makes all too possible, the Bahujan Samaj Part won one less seat than the Congress — despite garnering 50% more votes than the Congress. Comparing the 2004 results from the state (see here, pg. 125), it seems that the Congress has increased its share of the U.P. vote by approximately 50% (the BSP has also increased its share, by roughly an eighth: see here, pg. 123; by contrast, the BJP has declined from over 22% of the vote-share in 2004 (see here, pg. 122) to 17.5% in 2009).

Was Election 2009 rigged?

Election 2009: Bihar’s ringtone: Nitish government works

UPA to get 203 seats, NDA 191: Survey-Star News-Nielsen opinion poll

After India’s election – Good news: don’t waste it

A Lok Sabha Election Form..psst!!

There Are 188 Responses So Far. »

akshay shah 18 May 2009
10:07:24 pm

A stunning set of thoughts here Q! Has reference this on my blog too….

RAJ 18 May 2009
10:26:01 pm

“”the BJP has declined from over 22% of the vote-share in 2004 (see here, pg. 122) to 17.5% in 2009).”"

A good analysis but mostly unilateral.
BJP s vote share has not decresed as shown here..It has decresed from 22% to 21+ pct(national Share)….(As shown by NDTV) I urge the author to kindly provide authentic stats about the voteshares rather than talking in the air…

All this talk about Congress wining decisively againt BJP goes to thin air when we compare the direct fight states where BJP fought Congress directly…
As i have given the stas earlier in those states BJP is heads and shoulders ahead of Congress..

If we analyse the election carefully its quite evident that Congress has gained at the expense of Third front..It is this space in in Indian Polity which has been dented rather than NDA…

Now that Congress has won it is easier for the congress freindly media to bash all the ideologies of BJP…

BUt having said BJP has to reinvent itself to appeal the wider audince…

1.BJP has to cnange its top leadership as soon as possible probably make Modi is president….

2.Clearly outline its ideology and stick to it….
3.rather than sticking to allies ,it should start from now on to create a organisation of its own in every state..

Arun 18 May 2009
10:42:12 pm

I think Q is referring to the vote share in UP. He’s right! BJP has gone down from 22.17% to 17.5%, BSP has increased from 24.67% to 27.42%, INC up from 12% to 18.25% and SP has gone down from 26.74% to 23.26%.

INC seems to have gained a chunk of SP’s Muslim vote and also a section of the Upper Caste vote from BJP.

Arun 18 May 2009
10:44:50 pm

2004 Statewise Vote Share – From Page 124

2009 Vote Share

RAJ 18 May 2009
10:58:09 pm

“”I think Q is referring to the vote share in UP. He’s right! BJP has gone down from 22.17% to 17.5%, BSP has increased from 24.67% to 27.42%, INC up from 12% to 18.25% and SP has gone down from 26.74% to 23.26%.”"

Q,
In that case i regret..I was talking about the national scene…

Aarohi 18 May 2009
10:59:50 pm

RAJ: You have mentioned direct fight states before also. Could you please share which are these states?

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:01:48 pm

Arun: Did Congress fight the last LS elections in UP with SP?

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:06:29 pm

Aarohi,

I dont think Congress fought with SP in the last election…

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:09:38 pm

Aarohi,

Gujrat,Rajasthan,delhi,Jharkhand,Uttarakhand,Karnataka,Chattisgarh,HP,Goa

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:10:30 pm

Aarohi,

Not to forget madhya Pradesh.

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:13:36 pm

RAJ: I don’t think Jharkhand, Karnataka, Chattisgarh (to a large extent) were direct fight states.

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:15:05 pm

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress gets more hurt by BSP and SP than BJP.

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:17:40 pm

Aarohi,

The states i mentioned had a direct fight between Congtress and BJP..Now these states have a total of 151 seats..BJP has won 82 seats out of these and Congress 50 seats…

Now MH,Assam,Punjab and Bihar had direct fight between NDA and UPA…These states constitute 110 seats..Out of these seats NDA won 61 seats and UPA won 45 seats..If we combine theese two groups ..Out of 261 seats where BJP and its allies had a direct fight with UPA and its allies…BJP and its allies have won 127 seats compared to 96 seats to Congress its allies…

As per my analysis Congress has gained at the expenxes of Third Front not at the expense of BJP….Its BJP inablity to widen its base and stich together allineces has cost it dearly…

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:19:05 pm

There’s a reason why Digvijay Singh isn’t much fond of SP and Mayawati can’t rest peacefully when Rahul Gandhi is touring UP.

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:20:16 pm

Aarohi,

“”"RAJ: I don’t think Jharkhand, Karnataka, Chattisgarh (to a large extent) were direct fight states”"”

i am not talkning about fring players…In the sates i mention,literally its a fight between these two national parties only in 90 pct of the seats…

We can put Jharkhand in the second category(NDA vs UPA).But MP and Chattisgarh are two cornered fights barring 2/3 seats..

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:21:38 pm

RAJ: But how can you count Karnataka, Jharkhand, MP, as direct fight states. There are strong third players in these states. In MP, third and fourth players who play spoiler for Congress.

Arun 18 May 2009
11:29:39 pm

Aarohi: Don’t think they fought together.

btw, BJP’s voter share nationwide has dipped from 22.16% to 18.83%, while Cong has gone up from 26.53% to 28.52%.

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:37:29 pm

Aarohi,

On this count ,no state would be direct fight sates..In MH you have SP,BSP and MNS..In delhi and Rajasthan you got BSP…I am talkning about main players….

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:40:49 pm

Thanks for posting som — I was about to post but you beat me to it. Much apperciated.

No worries Raj. I used the figures provided by the Election Commission where possible…by the way, according to the Election Commission, nationwide the BJP got 18.8% of the vote, and the Congress got 28.5%; whereas the gap in 2004 was roughly 22 vs. 26 or so, in 2009 the Congress got roughly 50% more votes nationwide than the BJP.

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:43:07 pm

Oops, just saw Arun made a similar point.

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:44:40 pm

As I have maintained for years, the first-past-the-post distorts voteshares. For instance, the media has been spinning these elections as a huge defeat for the BSP; while true that the party did not take a great leap forward, it is unfair to focus on its 3rd place finish in U.P. in terms of seat-share: because in terms of VOTE share the BSP got more than any other party in the state (~27%), and increased its share vis-a-vis 2004 by ~3% or so.

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:46:27 pm

Re: “Did Congress fight the last LS elections in UP with SP?”

Raj is correct, the Congress did not contest with the SP last time around; nor did it do so this time around.

A good piece: http://www.indianexpress.com/n.....e/462064/0

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:46:36 pm

Q,

You are right…The gap between the two national parties have widened…That has musch to do Congress a good performance in AP,Rajasthan,UP and WB…

As far as BJP has concerned…It has stagnated…BJP can still get back from the losses of Delhi and Rajasthan…But the worrying factor is UP and its anability to widen its base to new sataes…It has to reinvent its policies and ideologies and new young leaders…

because i strongly believe we have more chances of stability when the two national parties become stronger…

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:47:31 pm

Yeah, actually there are almost no direct fight states. Main players line of thinking is superficial because the third player or fringe player invariably cuts into the votes of a main player. If that third party is BSP, most likely the main player is Congress. If that third party is MNS, the main player is SS+BJP.

Also, in Rajasthan and Delhi even though BSP cut Congress votes, it was way ahead of BJP (Congress polled a stunning 57 % votes in Delhi). This is not true for BJP in MP, although BSP as a third party doesn’t affect BJP. Likewise, BJP in CG is much ahead of Congress, so a no BSP scenario also wouldn’t have made a difference.

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:49:25 pm

A strong and constructive opposition is as much a necessity as a strong and stable govt..

When Vajpayee used to sit in the opposition ,the opposition used to be constructive …But under Advani ,BJP deviated from this…It didnt support the govt in the issue of national priority like Neuclear Deal…Thats where he lost his edge as a politician and statesman..

sandy 18 May 2009
11:51:45 pm

I’m glad Congress won and the way I see it voters did not bring Manmohan Singh and his team back in power necessarily beause they were effective or good. It was a choice between lesser evils IMO. BJP spoiled their chances by bringing in Modi and Varun mid-way in the campaign. That 100 per cent sent wrong signals about the direction BJP was taking. Th youth were turned off and voted for Congress instead. Also, the BJP seemed to be groping with no issues to take up – playing the Hindutva card was a big mistake in an election where indentity politics was itself rejected.

Also, the defeat of the third front came in the wake of the fact that they instilled no faith in the Indian voter. They didn’t look stable, something the voter was looking at.

One thing I will say about Congress and Maharashtra. Again, here, it’s a question of lesser evil. The Shiv Sena- BJP is no alternative at all. Certainly not MNS either -which incidentally is the main reason for the BJP-SS to lose, because they eat into their vote share in a major way. It’s scary how Raj Thackeray’s candidates came second and third in many constituencies!
But all of this does not mean the Congress did a good job in Maharashtra and I think they benefited because of the MNS in this election.
Vilasrao Deshmukh suggesting that they should follow the “UP model” and go for the assembly elections alone could be a huge tactical error. MNS is still a factor in keeping SS and BJP at bay from power but NCP and Cong need to be together or else, it’s going to lead to votes getting split between the secular parties.

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:52:20 pm

Yes, Qalandar, an analysis of vote shares is an eye opener for all those who like using routed, decimated, etc. If we look at seats only, Congress gets cleaned up by BJP in Gujarat every time, but vote shares tell a sobering, different story.

I am not sure if it was 2004 LS elections or 2008 VS elections in Karnataka, but Congress ended up with less number of seats with highest vote share.

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:53:19 pm

Raj: another factor is in Maharashtra, AP, anti-Congress votes were split. Thus the MNS got only ~4% votes in Maharashtra, but made a big difference in 8-10 constituencies. Similarly, some superficial analyses on TV have been saying Praja Rajyam was a big flop show, but of course it was not: it got ~15% of the vote (this is according to NDTV; couldn’t find their vote share on EC site, as they are lumped with independents, but that comes to ~22%), and probably a lot of this would have gone to Telegu Desam.

I don’t take pronouncements about the so-called crushing defeat of BJP seriously; wasn’t too long ago (before the 2004 elections) that the likes of India Today called the BJP India’s “natural party of governance”. Chadhte suraj ko salaam karne ki aadat hai logon ko…

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:54:08 pm

Q,

You are right vis a vis BSP..Actually its Mulayam who has lost iis vote share and is more likely to be affected by the rise of Congress there..

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:55:35 pm

Q: DMK also benefited from a split in anti-DMK vote.

Qalandar 18 May 2009
11:56:10 pm

Re: “Vilasrao Deshmukh suggesting that they should follow the “UP model” and go for the assembly elections alone could be a huge tactical error. MNS is still a factor in keeping SS and BJP at bay from power but NCP and Cong need to be together or else, it’s going to lead to votes getting split between the secular parties.”

I agree with you sandy; anyways, it isn’t as if Vilasrao Deshmukh has covered himself in glory in the state over the years!

It was somewhat heartening to see different political formations rewarded for good governance: in Delhi and A.P. it was the Congress, in Bihar the JD(U), and in Gujarat the BJP.

Arun 18 May 2009
11:56:28 pm

On UP, Interesting to observe that the no. of elected Muslims has come down 11 to 6, thanks to split in the Muslim vote. Also, the alliance with Kalyan Singh has definitely affected SP’s muslim vote. None of the 10 Muslims fielded by SP got elected.

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:56:38 pm

Q,

I agree with your analysis…In AP ,PRP divided anti congress votes..In TN ,Vijaykanths’ party dented AIDMK comine and In MH ,MNS dented atleast 10 seats….

But having said BJP has to reinvent itself to widen its base and appeal among the public..A more young heavy leadership is the need of the hour..

RAJ 18 May 2009
11:59:28 pm

Q,

“”It was somewhat heartening to see different political formations rewarded for good governance: in Delhi and A.P. it was the Congress, in Bihar the JD(U), and in Gujarat the BJP”"

In addition to the above states,Chattisgarh,MP and Orissa have also rewarded BJP and BJD for good governance..

Aarohi 18 May 2009
11:59:37 pm

Vir Sanghvi shared a very interesting anecdote on NDTV. Rajiv Gandhi told Vir during 1991 elections that he regretted allying with Sharad Pawar, not because he is a bad person, but because this alliance vacated the opposition space in Maharashtra which Shiv Sena filled in.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:00:00 am

wait, watching TV, BSP saying it is extending support from outside to UPA…ha, they don’t want the SP to steal their thunder

Yes Raj, I think SP is going to get seriously squeezed in U.P. between BSP, Congress, and BJP. The tie-up with Kalyan Singh reflects this desperation, after the BSP was able to peel off many Muslim and Brahmin voters in 2007, and now the Congress is also in the game for that vote.

Someone posted a good post from Swapan Dasgupta on Satyam’s blog: http://www.swapan55.com/2009/0.....songs.html

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:02:08 am

Arun: PS: in Rampur, for the second straight election the Congress candidate from Rampur’s erstwhile royal family, Noor Bano, lost to Jaya Prada. Bollywood zindabad

Aarohi 19 May 2009
12:02:29 am

An alternate view is that the Kalyan Singh tie up saved SP the blushes of getting relegated to single figures.

sandy 19 May 2009
12:02:46 am

“It was somewhat heartening to see different political formations rewarded for good governance: in Delhi and A.P. it was the Congress, in Bihar the JD(U), and in Gujarat the BJP.”

Agree Q. I’d say, we have some really eficient partities ruling now in several states. Should hopefully make a difference.

Arun 19 May 2009
12:03:08 am

It was somewhat heartening to see different political formations rewarded for good governance: in Delhi and A.P. it was the Congress, in Bihar the JD(U), and in Gujarat the BJP.

I’m not sure it was a vote for governance in AP. Had it been the case, Congress would’ve won comfortably.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
12:03:31 am

Azharuddin winning from Moradabad was a big surprise for me.

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:04:13 am

Sandy,

Yes, Varun might have affcted BJP but not sure about Modi…Modi at this momnet is seen as a dynamic and development oriented politician by the middleclass…Muslims are not going to vote for BJP anyways..I dont think Modi s name would have made any difference to this vote bank…

Its case of Congress improving rather than BJP loosing..

sandy 19 May 2009
12:05:33 am

“wait, watching TV, BSP saying it is extending support from outside to UPA…ha, they don’t want the SP to steal their thunder”

One can see why Lalu, SP, and several other regional parties are so keen to be a part of the UPA – because otherwise that renders them somewhat irrelevant in their States and will affect them in the state elections.

Arun 19 May 2009
12:06:26 am

The Amar Singh-Jaya Prada filmi drama paid off in Rampur

Aarohi 19 May 2009
12:06:44 am

I think Modi should seriously rethink his campaigning style. He gets very aggressive and crude in the campaign speeches. In general, people don’t like that. Congress party delegates the ugly things to the 2nd rung leaders.

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:07:13 am

I am happy the politics of blackmail and pressure groups have come to end in this election…I am happy to see the likes of Lalu,Amar singh,CBN and Jayalalita are cut to size…

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:07:32 am

Arun: I am not saying it was huge vote in A.P., but the Congress held on to most of its vote share, there was no big swing away from it.

Re: “Also, the alliance with Kalyan Singh has definitely affected SP’s muslim vote. None of the 10 Muslims fielded by SP got elected.”

I would question this because it assumes that the SP’s Muslim voter base only votes for the Muslim candidates — but Rampur shows the opposite, here rebel Azam Khan’s open support for Noor Bano was not enough, and Jaya Prada won again, as in 2004.

That being said, I think these results are very bad news for SP: basically, it took a tie up with Kalyan Singh, and a joint campaign with RJD and Paswan (admittedly small players in U.P., but still) for the SP to end up losing a third of its seats, with a decrease in % vote-share too. Signs do not look good, and right now the SP is struggling to clearly define its identity — it seems like it’s floundering. It would not have wanted the Congress to do so well that the SP’s support could be dispensed with but that’s what has happened.

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:07:50 am

“”I think Modi should seriously rethink his campaigning style. He gets very aggressive and crude in the campaign speeches. In general, people don’t like that. Congress party delegates the ugly things to the 2nd rung leaders”"

Agree here completely..

Aarohi 19 May 2009
12:08:52 am

No one is even talking about Paswan this time around.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:09:21 am

Yes, RJD is in dire straits, the worst: it has lost a sizable chunk of the Muslim Bihari vote to the JD(U), and I remember reading that even the Yadav vote is far less pro-RJD than it used to be; and its governance record was such that it is going to be hard for it to woo people back.

sandy 19 May 2009
12:09:50 am

Modi makes a difference in my perception of the BJP. Advani was a much more acceptable alternative for the moderate voter but given Modi’s past, I don’t think the youth were for him – at least not outseide Gujarat. Projecting him as a possible PM was a mistake I think. Being an efficient chief minister is one thing but gaining brownie points by having a press conference outside Taj after the attacks is despicable and the results proved it.

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:10:24 am

“”"wait, watching TV, BSP saying it is extending support from outside to UPA…ha, they don’t want the SP to steal their thunder”"

If BSP supports Congress it is bound to be afftcted badly..Because Congress is eyeing its Dalit votes…

I am really very hopeful if BJP gets its act together in UP ,in next 7-10 years ,UP would provide stability to centre rather than chaos..

rks 19 May 2009
12:10:40 am

Helped by the enemy of an enemy

Aarohi 19 May 2009
12:10:55 am

Q: In UP, SP is in the present tense and future imperfect state. If even half of the Congress’ plans in UP are implemented, guess who loses the most.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:11:10 am

PS– Personally, I think all these stories about Modi being damaged by these results are being spread by Modi’s rivals within the BJP, like Chouhan, Sushma Swaraj, etc., who want badly to cut him down to size. I think infighting really hobbled the BJP this time around — with the Congress the public expects factionalism, but for the party with a difference to do what we have been seeing in Rajasthan for so long, is something that hurts the image.

sandy 19 May 2009
12:11:54 am

I was always a fan of the Vajpayee-Advani combo and I personally think they ruled well when they came to power. I think they were efficient. But they haven’t been able to come to terms with that loss. They genuinely suffered an anti incumbancy wave and got all their maths wrong in terms of allies.
Somewhere this has led to them being confused about how exactly to go ahead.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:12:44 am

RKS: good piece; in fact this is nothing new for the Congress, which tacitly supported the Shiv Sena in Bombay in the 1970s in order to smash the power of the Communists in the trade unions.

Arun 19 May 2009
12:13:41 am

Q: Congress contested 234 seats in 2004 and got about 39% of the total votes. It contested all the 294 seats this time around and the vote share still fell to 36.53%. So, there was definitely a swing away.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:14:07 am

Re: “In UP, SP is in the present tense and future imperfect state.”

Ha, well said!

Ok all, it’s 315AM here in NYC, ab mein bhi neta logon ki tarah so jaata hoon…

Qalandar 19 May 2009
12:14:47 am

Arun: that’s an interesting stat indeed, I stand corrected.

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:15:14 am

“”Modi makes a difference in my perception of the BJP. Advani was a much more acceptable alternative for the moderate voter but given Modi’s past, I don’t think the youth were for him – at least not outseide Gujarat. Projecting him as a possible PM was a mistake I think. Being an efficient chief minister is one thing but gaining brownie points by having a press conference outside Taj after the attacks is despicable and the results proved it.”"

I dont agree here…I have visisted most part of my state atleast during the recent elections….Here the youth likes Modis style of functioning and dynamism…His past doesnt make any difference to the youth..In the contrary its LKA who do not have much acceptance amongst the youth..

sandy 19 May 2009
12:19:11 am

I do think Modi makes a negative impact, esp at a time when voters are showing the middle finger to politicians who try to influence them through identity politics.

The other side of it is development, which MOdi has done for Gujarat, which obviously makes him popular there. But I don’t see him as an ‘acceptable’ candidate or as the ‘face’ of BJP without bringing along the baggage of Godhra

RAJ 19 May 2009
12:24:33 am

Modi at this moment is synonymous with dvelopment…Modi has left his politics of “”identity”" well before the last Gujrat elections…Wherever he travelled he only talked about “”development”"..Agree the baggage of Godhra is hard to ward off but still i believe Modi do not have any negative impact as far as BJPs performnace is concerned…In the contrary he is sure to be the face of BJP in next elections…His great organisations skill is required by BJP at this moment and his charishma,oratory and moreover efficinecy would attarct the middleclass without fail…

sandy 19 May 2009
12:28:28 am

He may have some fan follwing but what he did after the terror attacks was still despicable. Karkare’s wife refused to accept the one crore he publically announced for her and some others. There’s a disgust for him too.

sandy 19 May 2009
12:29:31 am

Rahul seems like the darling of the media and everyone at the moment. He may not have the experience but i vastly prefer him to some of these wily, disgraceful politicians.

neelu 19 May 2009
12:54:11 am

I think something very similar happened at the time of Mrs. Gandhi’s assassination – when Congress allowed (some may say willfully participated in) the killing of Sikhs. If that can be forgotten then Godhra can be too. People have short memory span and usually think of what is going to impact them directly. For me it is LKA who does not have mass acceptance. And he is too old – in order to move forward BJP needs to stop the infighting and to let the young leaders rise.

Som 19 May 2009
01:20:37 am

“when Congress allowed (some may say willfully participated in) the killing of Sikhs. If that can be forgotten then Godhra can be too.”

Killing of Sikhs in 1984 is as much as reprehensible as what happened at Godhra in 2002 and the Shiv Sena’s active participation in 1992-93 Mumbai riots.At the end of the day, lives of hundreds and thousands of innocent people were lost.No amount of development or any form of apology from the people responsible,can justify these acts nor can fill the literally incurable wounds of the acquaintances and relatives of the people who lost their lives.

neelu 19 May 2009
01:23:40 am

Som – I was not apologizing for Godhra, but saying that if Congress can win despite the Sikh killings, then BJP can too.

Som 19 May 2009
01:27:40 am

I didn’t mean you Neelu.I meant Jagdish Tytler and couple of others when I said “apology”.

julie 19 May 2009
01:50:30 am

Excellent post Qalandar.

“If that can be forgotten then Godhra can be too.”

neelu – One of the factors most of us here are ruling out is the money power that Congress has. It can buy the media, CBI and half of the judiciary. Just see the tone that media adopted against the BJP in every analysis. So whilst they could help bury from memory the Sikh riots, Godhra, Gujarat and Modi was replayed at evry single opportunity.

The elections have not just been won becasue Congress is better or BJP is worst, but becasue Congress had the entire print and electronic media working at marathon pace for it’s victory. I see a repeat of similar scenario if BJP does not have a supporting right wing media.

Having said that let us look at other issues which have cost BJP this election. I feel that Advani lost a lot of his focus half way through the elections. Instead of focusing on the core issues that people want to hear, which directly affects their life, I think the BJP top to middle rung spent all their enregies attacking the Congress. Of course Congress also started retaliating towards the middle of the campaign by attacking Advani, Vajpayee, and Modi. But then it was perceived as a retaliationary measure.

Varn Gandhi vitriolic speech – helped him win his own seat but cost BJP lacs of votes elsewhere. His amateurish behaviour was silently condoned by BJP top line when they kind of said well the tapes are doctored becasue they sensed some gains from the Brahmin votes in UP.

In my view Congress is the more corrupt party, but has suave speakers and can handle media very well. BJP by comparison did appear more simpleton.

Going forward I do not agree that Modi should take the front line. He has his appeal in Gujarat, Saurashtra and Maharshtra. But as a national leader he is not an option. As someone pointed out in the thread, the youth will not take on to him. The youth in my view are the driving force going forward, because the unreliable middle class hardly votes.

BJP has to adopt a moderate line going forward and recruit more youthful leaders. They have allies like friends of BJP which is a young conglomerate of aspirants who are with BJP and it’s idealogies. Get people like these on board. Cut down on the decrepit lot. Get people like Shourie, Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj to become more proactive. Stop atacking the Congress. They should have a no attack policy – period and just focus on development issues.

There is a certain discrepancy that has also also been observed in the election. The missing voters list. I beleive rockstar provided a few links in another thread that has now been closed, but it is a fact that many electorate did not find their names on the voting list. Why? My sister who lives in Delhi went to cast her vote and she was told her name is not there. I have read of several other instances of people not finding their names in the voters list and many of them of course have been from the middle or upper middle class.

Such discrepancies must be dispensed with and during next election I believe there should be a policy of mandatory voting.

All said and done – my heartiest Congtrats to Sonia, Rahul and Manmohan Singh. Hope we see a period of good governance and all the pending reform bills are implemented. Hope India transcends into a new era of growth and development.

julie 19 May 2009
02:02:30 am

Another point that comes to mind is that people did not cast their votes against the BJP bit against the Third and Fourth front. They voted enmasse in the fear that they did not want to see a govt. full of clowns but a govt. which represented stablity. Congress was a more viable option becasue they are a national party in the true sense, whereas BJP is hardly there in the South and East. If there is any coalition that has hurt BJP’s prospects, it is the Third Front the most.

BJP has to work very hard in building up it’s base in South, East and UP.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
02:17:44 am

Julie: Money power and CBI have no relation. CBI is controlled by the govt. in centre. BJP misused it too. Every one does. Media tends to go with parties in power, so if NDA were the winners you would have seen entirely different conclusions being drawn. There are some fixed media-party relations, but many just float around.

Most importantly, the impact of the media is overrated, especially the English media. What impact do you think something said by someone on NDTV in English would have on a voter in rural UP? None. The vernacular press has a more influencing role (that too very limited) and there BJP has equal number of friends if not more.

Also, it’s a bit unwise to say that that Congress is a richer party and it has bought everyone, especially when the other group is BJP. If money power worked to such an extent, BSP wouldn’t have won any elections 10-12 years ago when they were collecting money from people and running their campaign on cycles. They are still collecting money but that’s another story.

There was a time not long ago when BJP was the savvier party, with better media management and more suave speakers, and Congress came across as a group of bumbling idiots in front of them. That changed and there’s no reason why it can’t change again.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
02:23:56 am

In the past, Congress have benefited from numerous communal riots and their role in 1984 is well documented, but at present the difference between BJP and Congress is that Congress top brass has repeatedly apologized for 1984 whereas BJP’s response to 2002 is entirely different. And, I don’t think people forget and move on.

julie 19 May 2009
02:30:26 am

“Most importantly, the impact of the media is overrated, especially the English media. What impact do you think something said by someone on NDTV in English would have on a voter in rural UP? None. The vernacular press has a more influencing role (that too very limited) and there BJP has equal number of friends if not more.”

Aarohi – what it does is make people like the middle class indifferent. This is what is called creating antipathy or indifference towrads voting for anyone. The low voter turnout is an indicator of that. Where did the balance of 50% voters go.

CBI – BJP may have used CBI in the past, but in this election and now for the next 5 years, CBI remains in the pocket of Congress. Congress has a 60 year history in Indian polity and BJP only 6. Who needs CBI More?

If Congress is not the richer party then I am Queen Victoria. If there is a party which can blatantly use money power it is Congress. Of course I am not saying that they have used it to buy voter’s vote in this election. although DMK in South has been alleged to have distributed 500 Rs. note, and other goodies, but so far have not heard of Congress doing the same.

julie 19 May 2009
02:34:01 am

and it is the middle and upper middle class which has been the traditional vote bank of BJP. Of late it has started shifting towards OBC’s but that still remains undefined.

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:26:49 am

Julie,

I didnt find my name in the list too.Sad..BJP lost three votes(Me ,my wife and my brother…)

My Brother is 19 years ..And is a fan of SRK and MODI..Can you beat that…Secularism at its best…

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:36:20 am

Julie,

Money is being distributed by every party in the election…The truth is in the elections the majority of the people who vote belong to poor and semi poor categories.. and they “”vote for note”"”…Middle class hardly votes….

The ruling party spend the maximum as they have the maximum money…That doesnt guarantee them win though…I have seen Rs.1000 notes being distributed in my constituency by the ruling party candidates who eventually won……

There are reports of widespread tampering of EVM machines…There are instances where the EVM machine is programmed in such a way where ..no matter whom you vote the vote goes to one symbol…Although this cant hapen without the invilvement of election officers…

The reason i mention all this because..In our country, election is still not entirely free and fair…

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:36:42 am

Julie,

Money is being distributed by every party in the election…The truth is in the elections the majority of the people who vote belong to poor and semi poor categories.. and they “”vote for note”"”…Middle class hardly votes….

The ruling party spend the maximum as they have the maximum money…That doesnt guarantee them win though…I have seen Rs.1000 notes being distributed in my constituency by the ruling party candidates who eventually won……

There are reports of widespread tampering of EVM machines…There are instances where the EVM machine is programmed in such a way where ..no matter whom you vote the vote goes to one symbol…Although this cant happen without the involvement of election officers…

The reason i mention all this because..In our country, election is still not entirely free and fair…

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:41:08 am

“”"In the past, Congress have benefited from numerous communal riots and their role in 1984 is well documented, but at present the difference between BJP and Congress is that Congress top brass has repeatedly apologized for 1984 whereas BJP’s response to 2002 is entirely different. And, I don’t think people forget and move on.”"

Which Top brass of Congress have apologised for 84 riots and when??

What about the other communal riots right from Independence which happened s=during congress regime???Have they apologised for that too??? if yes, when and who???

Aarohi 19 May 2009
03:41:49 am

Julie: Misuse of CBI has been very consistent issue with BJP, so being a party with a difference it should have shown the way. But in some ways it turned out to be more congressi than Congress when it got the chair.

BJP might have been in the centre for 6 years but it has been present in the polity since independence in some form or the other.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
03:44:03 am

RAJ: Sonia Gandhi has apologized, MMS has apologized. If you know anyone who is more top brass in Congress at the moment, let me know.

Are you suggesting that BJP is waiting for Congress to apologize first?

Aarohi 19 May 2009
03:48:19 am

There are reports of widespread tampering of EVM machines…There are instances where the EVM machine is programmed in such a way where ..no matter whom you vote the vote goes to one symbol…Although this cant happen without the involvement of election officers…

This is the most interesting explanation of UPA’s performance I have read so far. But more interesting thing is that they couldn’t tamper the EVMs enough to get majority.

julie 19 May 2009
03:48:19 am

Raj – there you go. I wonder why so many people (and I say middle class because all the instances cited are from the middle and upper middle class) did not find their names on the voters list? So you have almost 50% voters whose names are on the list don’t turn up and an additional percentage of voters who do not find their names on the list. But is there a way that we can have mandatory voting in the next elections.

I also believe reverting to traditional ballot voting may not be a bad idea.

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:49:08 am

“”Are you suggesting that BJP is waiting for Congress to apologize first?”"

What crap..when did i suggest that…?? My point is Congress is involved in allmost 50 communal riots post independence…1984 being the biggest…Now one fine morning in 2006/2007 (after two decades of the riots happened)Congress apologised…(Although i have never heard about it) and still congress freinds taking moral high ground??? LOL…

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:50:20 am

Julie,

EVM machines are subjected to maximum manipulation…The only advantage is it accelerates the counting process…

julie 19 May 2009
03:51:15 am

Aarohi – Disagree with your interpretation on CBI’s link with BJP and the Congress. It has always been the Congress who has been infamous for misusing the CBI. And what kind of logic is that ? that BJP has been around in polity since Independence. Ha. It is Congess that has been in power for 47 years of 60 years. Your logic fails me.

julie 19 May 2009
03:53:27 am

Raj – Navin Chawala the Election Commissioner is from which party?

Aarohi 19 May 2009
03:54:51 am

RAJ: Apology doesn’t make any difference to those who have suffered, but it sends a signal that a problem is being recognized. The question of issuing apology doesn’t arise in case of BJP because they don’t recognize the problem in the first place.

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:54:55 am

Aarohi,

“”This is the most interesting explanation of UPA’s performance I have read so far. But more interesting thing is that they couldn’t tamper the EVMs enough to get majority.”"

I believe you have a habit of misinterpreting lines…When did i say that…i am not finding words to condem this kind of thinking…BTW in my part of the country Congress is being routed and partly the EVM machines are respeonsible for this debacle..In fact the the Ex CM (Who was in charge of Congress govt for 10 years)of my sate have alleged the the tampering in EVMs…(Which i believe to an extent)

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:57:22 am

“”Raj – Navin Chawala the Election Commissioner is from which party?”"

Congress??? He was allegedely leaking informatiuon to HM from the election commission meetings…

RAJ 19 May 2009
03:59:08 am

“”RAJ: Apology doesn’t make any difference to those who have suffered, but it sends a signal that a problem is being recognized. The question of issuing apology doesn’t arise in case of BJP because they don’t recognize the problem in the first place.”"

I agree…But the point is why you guys are giving so much importance to Apology..Now you say Congress has recognised the problem..Is that the resaon the CBI gave clean chit to Tytler and Sajjan kumar….????

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:04:26 am

What misinterpretation? You said that there were reports of widespread tampering. I have not read one report of that kind. What I have read is opinions of some people who think that EVMs were tampered when they lost the elections.

Julie: hasn’t BJP been on the political scene since independence?

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:06:47 am

That’s another example of dealing with a problem. Congress withdrew Sajjan Kumar and co.’s tickets after stiff opposition by Sikh groups. Not a perfect scenario but still someting was done. BJP had a similar situation with varun and we all saw how it was dealt with.

julie 19 May 2009
04:08:13 am

“Julie: hasn’t BJP been on the political scene since independence?”

Don’t know what you are implying here. You started off well. But your logic forgive my saying so is making little sense now. Just going in circles. BJP being around since independence means what?

I have to leave now, but your arguments on BJP Congress CBI are going nowhere

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:10:49 am

Mr.Aarohi,

“”"What misinterpretation? You said that there were reports of widespread tampering. I have not read one report of that kind. What I have read is opinions of some people who think that EVMs were tampered when they lost the elections. “”"

You must be kidding or you are making a fool of your self…

Yes i said there were widespread EVM tampering..But did i say UPA did it(Considering there are different state Govts ruled by different parties..)…Do you read my mind???

The points i raises were in general in nature and not attributed to any particular partry…

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:12:29 am

Julie,

Even i believe Aarohi is confused a bit at this momenet….lets leave it here…we can discuss it when Aarohi comes back to his senses..

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:17:04 am

It might take 5 years.

sandy 19 May 2009
04:17:39 am

I do not agree that media can make a party win.

sandy 19 May 2009
04:18:16 am

…if that were so, NDA would have won in 2004 when everyone was on their side.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:29:03 am

EVM tampering was very limited in 2004, although NDA may or may not have benefited even if there were EVM tampering because even when EVM tampering occurs it is done in general not aimed to benefit a specific party including the one in the government.

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:43:06 am

“”EVM tampering was very limited in 2004, although NDA may or may not have benefited even if there were EVM tampering because even when EVM tampering occurs it is done in general not aimed to benefit a specific party including the one in the government.”"

Even i said the same thing but guess you misinterpreted…

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:44:49 am

EVMs can’t be tampered with

Elections electrified

Aarohi 19 May 2009
04:45:34 am

Um, I was kidding there.

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:45:41 am

Sandy,

“”I do not agree that media can make a party win.”"

Agree…media cant make a party win but it largely influnces opinions when it comes to politics especially the print media…Its not an instant process..But print media can work as a propaganda machinery over a period of time for a particular party and its ideology….

That is the reason most of the regional newspapers are owned by politicians….

Som 19 May 2009
04:55:18 am

“You must be kidding or you are making a fool of your self…”

“we can discuss it when Aarohi comes back to his senses..”

All I can say please be bit careful with your language, Raj.

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:56:01 am

“”Um, I was kidding there.”"

Aarohi,

Welll..I thought so…Otherwise you never become so lopsided in your logic..

RAJ 19 May 2009
04:58:36 am

Som,

“”"All I can say please be bit careful with your language, Raj.”"

Considering Aarohi is a moderator himself…i felt i can get away with it..LOL..you are not sleeping either..

Aarohi 19 May 2009
05:01:07 am

Chalo lopsided hi sahi, aapne logic toh kaha.

RAJ 19 May 2009
05:01:13 am

Som..

But do you think my laguage was abusive in nature???? People get away with so much vitriol over here…I am being direct..Thats about it…

RAJ 19 May 2009
05:02:12 am

Aarohi,

Did you feel offended???

Som 19 May 2009
05:03:26 am

Raj:You have been civil all along but that sort of sentence is bit uncalled for.We need to be bit more calm and composed while debating an issue, especially when something like Politics which throws a variety of arguments and counter arguments.

RAJ 19 May 2009
05:06:39 am

Som,

The point is when aarohi has not taken it seriously why the moderators are interfearing in this…My point is Aarohi and me share a good rapport all along and i dont see any reason why we cant sort out things(If any) among ourselves..

Aarohi 19 May 2009
05:10:55 am

It’s ok with me, Raj. Perhaps, Som felt that it might turn ugly so he intervened.

RAJ 19 May 2009
05:16:38 am

Aar,

“”"It’s ok with me, Raj.”"”

Thanks bro…

I never let the situation run out of hands especially with decent folks like you..When we discuss a volatle topic like politics ,there are bound to be momentary lapse of temper…But we are mature enough to control the situation….

“”"Perhaps, Som felt that it might turn ugly so he intervened”"”

Well …uglier things have happend here and uglier words been said..Anyways i give the benefit of doubt to Som…

Som 19 May 2009
05:17:59 am

Vote share shatters myth of invincible Modi

Rahul eyes role of ‘conscience’ keeper

Aarohi 19 May 2009
05:27:01 am

I suspect Som doesn’t have adequate confidence in my ability to stay calm in these situations.

Aarohi 19 May 2009
05:30:21 am

Gujarat LS numbers reveal that the fight is close, but in Gujarat VS Modi seems to be much ahead. Close to 10 percent lead in a 2-way scenario is unbeatable.

sandy 19 May 2009
05:35:35 am

Now everyone wants to be close to the Congress. The latest is Mayawati saying, “Main Manmohan Ki Behen jaisi’ LOL

Arun 19 May 2009
05:39:51 am

The latest is Mayawati saying, “Main Manmohan Ki Behen jaisi’ LOL

Poor MMS

Som 19 May 2009
05:41:12 am

“I suspect Som doesn’t have adequate confidence in my ability to stay calm in these situations.”

He he! No, not really.I did not see any comment from you after Raj made that comment,thought you might have been offended and left the discussion.Anyway we should put that to rest now.

Som 19 May 2009
05:45:13 am

The latest is Mayawati saying, “Main Manmohan Ki Behen jaisi’

. SP has also decided to lend it’s support.

NyKavi 19 May 2009
07:42:15 am

It looks like the other 2 threads on the election got too heated and were withdrawn from the forum.
Re: riots, IMO a book needs to be written that documents every riot since 1947, its causes, effects and its underlying actual happenings. Every riot is not a plain vanilla communal riot. The 92 riots in Bombay is a case in point. A Cong govt at center and state apparently could not prevent alleged Shiv Sainiks from carrying out a 10 day long pogrom in the commercial capital of India. If one actually lived through those 10 days and was in Bombay, the actual undercurrents become clearer. I will not argue that there was a disproportionate amount of Muslims who literally fled Bombay, and maybe to this day have not returned. But to say that the Govt could not stop Shiv Sainiks to orchestrate this for 10 continuous days is too much of a stretch. In reality, those riots were executed for ulterior motives. What started out as Hindu-Muslim riots transformed into a property grab free-for-all. Landlords took the opportunity to evict reticent tenants, slumlords cleared out entire slums, goondas targetted persons of wealth to forcibly evict them from their own posh digs, etc etc. It didnt matter at that point if the victims were Hindu or Muslim. While there was a naked dance of death being carried out in the poorer localities, the free-for-all property grab was being carried out in parallel everywhere else. Entire colonies started arming themselves to the teeth, holding night vigils, etc to ensure that a few goondas dont just descend on a hapless flat owner and evict him forcibly. All this happened right under the nose of a central and state Cong govt. And it comes as no surprise for this to have happened in Mrashtra, where the heinous nexus between the mafia and every political party runs deep.
Similar things happened in the 84 and 2002 riots, but the scale of property grab in 1992 far surpassed any others. The 84 riots were not even one of religious frenzy. Pretty much everyone ganged up on hapless Sikhs in N India. It wasnt only Hindus doing this. Obviously, a rainbow coalition party like the Congress would need a rainbow coalition of instigators to punish the perpetrators of Indira’s assasination. (ie, the Sikhs). Properties were destroyed rather than grabbed, but the human toll and suffering was unimaginable for that era. Perhaps the most after the riots in partition. But, all of it was quickly forgotten. Dec 1984 saw Cong ride back to power with a huge majority. And state controlled media didnt even pipsqueak about 1984 for a long long time. If that is not an example of govt engineered genocide than what is?

The 2002 riots were defn one of pure religious frenzy. Under continuous 5 decade Cong rule in Gujurat before 1995, the disproportionate loss of life and property of Hindus in communal riots in Gujurat had built up an inferno of hatred. No matter how many commissions the Congress sets up to coverup the Godhra incident, or to rewrite the history of the “spark” that lit the fire, the fact remains that this incident was enough to ignite 5 decade long animosities that Hindus had towards Muslims in Gujurat. The riots cannot be condoned, or justified in any way whatsoever. The people who ignited the coach in Godhra may very well be scotfree, and only the innocents paid for it in large numbers. That it was tacitly state approved is no secret. But whereas the media barely spoke about 1984, silently condoning it in many cases as well, the justifiable anti-BJP response by the media has made the BJP pay for this incident till this day. It has become a virtually untouchable party, and these elections clearly show how difficult it has become for the BJP to expand into secular mixed areas. They have become slaves of their own votebank, and cannot develop any others. Congress has relatively gone scotfree for its role in 1984.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
08:11:12 am

Re: “One of the factors most of us here are ruling out is the money power that Congress has. It can buy the media, CBI and half of the judiciary. Just see the tone that media adopted against the BJP in every analysis. So whilst they could help bury from memory the Sikh riots, Godhra, Gujarat and Modi was replayed at evry single opportunity.”

The english-language media tends to be less sympathetic to the BJP as opposed to the “secular” parties, but the Hindi-language media doesn’t have the same issue, and in fact many of the major Hindi papers are in fact the opposite, and their circulation dwarfs that of the english-language print newspapers.

Aside: one thing to note is that (if the reports coming in are true), over the past several elections the BJP had gotten more voted from educated/middle-class/urban voters than the Congress had — even in 2004. But this time that trend has been reversed. If that is true, then definitely BJP should introspect. Congress for its own part needs to introspect about different things (rather than sidelining non-dynasty leaders, their importance should be acknowledged and they should be promoted, be it a Dixit or a YSR or whoever)…

Ravi 19 May 2009
08:24:25 am

Very nice Nykavi bhai, excellent thoughts.

Always a pleasure to read.

rks 19 May 2009
08:58:35 am

On a different note
Listen to whatever your wife says: SC tells husbands

julie 19 May 2009
01:13:05 pm

Qalandar : If the reports of middle class vote bank shifting to Congress is to be believed, that makes my point even more emphatic that the English media has played a significant role in this change of populist middle class belief. In a regression model, what predictive powers one assigns to this variable is purely speculative though.

Your point about Venacular press playing upto BJP and regional parties is true, but they cater to a target segment that is traditionally not the BJP cote bank. As I said the votebank has now seen some shift to the OBC but that is undefined.

I do agree that BJP is in some troubled time ahead if Congress has actually made a dent into it’s taditional votebank, becasue what it means is that COngress preserves it’s traditional votebank as well as drives wedge into the votebank of the BJP as well as acquires the new votebank which is youth.

Agreed with you on dynastic policy of the Congress. But that ain’t gonna change quickly or too soon. I still believe that the true reigns of the country are in the hands of Sonia and now Rahul. It is a matter of time before Rahul will take over. Anyone’s thoughts on Rahula Gandhi’s future leadership capabilities?

julie 19 May 2009
01:41:26 pm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-06-26-e-voting_x.htm

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/64711.html

julie 19 May 2009
01:42:48 pm

http://news.idg.no/cw/art.cfm?id=003AE63C-17A4-0F78-31DDDC0DCFA62609

http://arstechnica.com/old/con.....5/3721.ars

julie 19 May 2009
01:48:45 pm

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.....553200.cms

(this relates to the point that sandy and I made in the thread. For these reasons Modi cannot be a frontline national leader. Even the Varun Gandhi fiasco is being cited as a major reason for public apathy).

NyKavi 19 May 2009
02:00:09 pm

Well, it has all come back full circle in 20 yrs. Rajiv lost the mandate in 1989, and his wife/son have won it back in 2009. I wont count 2004, as that was techincally a weaker mandate, even though they lasted 5 yrs.
For Sonia, there also must be some closing of chapters with the death of Prabhakaran.
A naive and probably idealistic Rajiv launched the original set of reforms in 1986, albeit those were just nibbles compared to what MMS did in 1991. One cannot fathom if Rajiv was indeed Mr Clean, or whether the facade was appropriate for the Bofors scandal a few yrs later. Anyhow, after Rajiv went, the ragtag third front in 90-91 bankrupted the country. From the empty treasury of 1991, when MMS initiated a bold set of reforms, through successive govts, India has seen them implemented in fits and starts. Finally after nearly 20 yrs, MMS gets the space to do what he wanted to do from the very beginning. Lets hope that dynastic politics and Cong sycophancy do not present any new hurdles from now on.

rks 19 May 2009
02:03:49 pm

Without proper data, these are mere conjectures by political pundits. If BJP had won the same arguments would have been given positive spin

There was a positive feeling for Congress which could be gauged by assembly elections after Mumbai attacks. It is just that our Psephologists were not able to gauge it. And their job becomes more difficult with multi-cornered contests and likely voter turnout.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
02:10:21 pm

PS — I urge everyone to check out the Election Commission’s site (links in my blog posts above), amazing wealth of data, both national and state-by-state, for the 2004 elections, and whatever is available so far for 2009 (they will add more as it becomes available)…

rks 19 May 2009
03:54:29 pm

On a different note
Fossil Ida: extraordinary find is ‘missing link’ in human evolution

Deal in Hamburg bar led scientist to Ida fossil, the ‘eighth wonder of the world’

Tango 19 May 2009
09:05:24 pm

“The latest is Mayawati saying, “Main Manmohan Ki Behen jaisi’ ”

What is Manmohan Singh says main bahut bada ….. hoon

BTW- Isse pehle Bhenji had tied rakhi to Lalji Tandon but a few years later she said ” Yeh Lalji nahi Laalchi (greedy) Tandon hai .”

Arun 19 May 2009
09:36:12 pm

If BJP had won the same arguments would have been given positive spin

True! It’s far too simplistic to assume that, just because BJP lost and Cong won, everything BJP did was wrong and everything Cong did was right.

On exit polls, most of them did get the swing right at least, unlike in 2004.

RAJ 19 May 2009
10:24:00 pm

Excellents pointsby Nykavi…

Coming back points raised by Q and Julie regarding Middle calsss coming back to Congress,i dont think this is a correct analysis…

If we analyse the elections carefully..we see a positice swing of 2 pct for congress and negative swing of 2 pct against BJP….BJP has literally kept his vore share intact in their dominated sates…weheras Congress has gained grounds in WB (Due to Mamata) and UP…Thats all..

Middle class this time has not just voted …Middle class is increasingly becoming disinterested to the elections…If we take the major cities we would see that there is a considerable drop in voter turnout..That says a lot about their disillusion…None of the political parties are able to live to their aspirations….

RAJ 19 May 2009
10:26:33 pm

“”"this relates to the point that sandy and I made in the thread. For these reasons Modi cannot be a frontline national leader. Even the Varun Gandhi fiasco is being cited as a major reason for public apathy).”"

I dont quite agree with this analysis of TOI…If that would have been the case BJP wont have done well in their own teritory..Yes what MOdi has done definitely pushed away the alles but not the voters…

Qalandar 19 May 2009
10:55:46 pm

Re: “we see a positice swing of 2 pct for congress and negative swing of 2 pct against BJP”

According to the election commission data, there was a nearly 3.5% swing away from the BJP; you are correct on the Congress: thus last time around Congress:BJP was ~26:~22%, this time it is ~28:~18%. [Note that this means that the combined voteshare of the two national parties actually declined by 2%, which the media hasn't focused on.]

btw, I don’t believe this election shows Modi’s unacceptability — I don’t support Modi, but IMO this is a BS explanation, and I suspect his enemies within the BJP are trying to damage him.

Qalandar 19 May 2009
10:57:23 pm

Raj: middle class might or might not have voted, that is a different issue; I am simply saying that media reports are claiming that more middle class voters went for Congress than BJP. If that is true, that reverses the trend from recent elections. [It is a different question as to whether that is in fact true: the media can't have hard data on this since even the EC hasn't released that data, if it even collects it]…

RAJ 19 May 2009
11:09:23 pm

Q,

I am not disputing your claim regarding for whom the middle calss voted..What i wanted to bring forth is the middlecalss’s apathy towrads the elections…

Anyways we dont have enough data to prove that the middlecalss vote has actually switched fromn BJP to congress because as i have mentiuoned earlier with my data in direct fight sates of NDA and UPA…out of 261 seats in these NDA has won in 143 seats and UPA has won in 95 seats..

The media is not analysisng the results properly…UPA has gained at the expense of Third Fronnt Rather than NDA…

Its BJPs inability to stitch togther allinaces and broaden its base which have cost them the elections…not because their policies are been rejected…The theory of Modis unacceptability dosent hold any ground if we study the stats provided by me, a bit caregully…

Arun 20 May 2009
12:57:36 am

1.99% more votes got the Congress 61 seats

julie 20 May 2009
01:03:25 am

Raj – I am not negating Modi’s virtues. Remember the martahon discussion we had on Modi’s contribution at the development front. My dad himself is a great admirer of Modi just like yourself. But I beleive in order to reach out as a mass leader, Modi does need to develop a more national image, cut down on alacrity of speech. I think the opinion on him remains divided. No one can be a Vajpai and that is a problem that BJP will face big time.

On middle class, I am just ging by the media projection that Qalandar cited. I am really not sure whether there has been a swing or not. But if there has even been a marginal swing it would be worrisome for BJP becasue that is it’s core base and English media to an extent has done a damage, apart from making a high percentage apathetic towards the election.

julie 20 May 2009
01:07:07 am

What I do admire about Modi is the enormous energy he has. That is something that can play to his advantage as opposed to the other leaders.

RAJ 20 May 2009
03:34:44 am

“”" But I beleive in order to reach out as a mass leader, Modi does need to develop a more national image, cut down on alacrity of speech.”"

Agree here…But knowing MODI and having met him personally,i am sure he has it in him to transform his image completely…Look How he transformed himself From “”politics of identity”" to “”Politics of development”" …

Modi is now not talkning about any religion etc..he is only talking about development…I am sure he has to talk about religion at some point of time to reach out to the broader spectrum of Indian polity..

RAJ 20 May 2009
03:38:58 am

Julie,

I have met Both Modi and Rahul personally…I found in both of them ,an honest desire to do something for the masses .The trait i couldnt find in some other important leaders..Both the leaders seem to me, Honest politicians and are free from corruption…

julie 20 May 2009
03:43:22 am

arre wah, Raj sahab, lots of political connections My dad has also met Modi, Vajpai and Advani but somehow has taken on most to Modi. Must be something about his personality that attracts people.

RAJ 20 May 2009
03:56:30 am

“”arre wah, Raj sahab, lots of political connections “”

Well…Julie..have to build connections to get work done..

If i analyse from purely business man point of view…Congress is better because they(All most all the ministers) would take money(Bribe) and would get your work done…Even their PAs can get your work done if offered money…But During NDA..especially the people with RSS background were hard nut to crack..Money could never buy them..

S T R E E T 20 May 2009
11:59:01 am

“…Congress is better because they(All most all the ministers) would take money(Bribe) and would get your work done…Even their PAs can get your work done if offered money…But During NDA..especially the people with RSS background were hard nut to crack..Money could never buy them..”

Hahahahaaa…… ROFL.. man.. Elections are over. Your BJP lost. ..and ur wet dreams of seeing Modi as the PM has virtually hit the dust. Beat it man..

S T R E E T 20 May 2009
12:09:43 pm

“…with my data in direct fight sates of NDA and UPA…out of 261 seats in these NDA has won in 143 seats and UPA has won in 95 seats..

The media is not analysisng the results properly…UPA has gained at the expense of Third Fronnt Rather than NDA..”

First of all there’s no such thing as Head-to-head fight states.. coz there’s always a third party that cuts into either one of those two. The only head-to-head fight would be when there’s no third party candidate.

Secondly, the NDA being unable to win the seats lost by the third and fourth front, further proves BJP’s (or its allies’)inability to get national consensus. Why did those votes go to UPA and not NDA?

Basically, all NDA was able to do this election was hold on to more or less its strongholds.. and even there it’s lost grounds to a degree. Elections have always been about swing votes.. and NDA’s inability to gain anything there shows its failed face. And the leadership of Advani, the likelihood of Modi as PM further down the road, and folks like Varun have a lot to do with it. Teh traditional BJP voter would vote for them no matter who the leaders are.. but for the trest of the country that’s a scary scene.. seeing these type of leaders at the helm. BJP needs more leaders like Vajpayee if they wanna get any kind of consensus nationally. Get rid of Modi-types or else just leave them in Gujurat, though even there BJP lost some vote share.

Qalandar 20 May 2009
12:11:34 pm

I would be interested in hearing the thoughts of people on the Tamil Nadu-specific scene? Why do folks think DMK performed better than expected?

S T R E E T 20 May 2009
12:16:54 pm

“My Brother is 19 years ..And is a fan of SRK and MODI..Can you beat that…Secularism at its best…”

lol.. you make a statement like that.. and then at the same time claim that Modi doesn’t have an anti-Muslim image.. and how he’s seen as some kind of development-wizard.. and what not.

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:23:54 pm

exceleent discussion and some very good points discusserd here

on bjp :arun shourie is the right man to lead( fan of him and even as journalist his writings on indian express where always pleasure to read and he is highly respected in media especially english media )

modi is better administrator no 2 ways about it but he should concentrate on gujrat with all narv nirman projects in hand

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:27:22 pm

julie excellent points on english media and i have said that sometime back to in NG TO

the nexus between media abd certain poltical set up is well know but its a fact india never had a nuetral media

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:30:54 pm

BTW SOMEONE SAID ON CROREPATI THING :

66.5 % of current MPs of congress are crorepatis CURRENTLY and its they who have ruled over 55 years compartively bjp is just 25 year old …. so its better known who has tighter control of administration and central authorities

on bjp they should go for further massive re-inovation in south after bangalore and should try to improve their stakes in u.p and bengal

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:34:44 pm

btw manmohan sigh is a great economist but one has to ask these promises will be done during the time of recession and it includes:

60,000 crores loan waiver, Major tax cuts.,7-8% growth.

realistically these are impossible

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:47:45 pm

raj: forget 84 or gujrat its a known fact to why mns in maharashta was allowed to go on rampage in which innocent north indians where killed and harassed( because politically it was useful and he was cutting down votes )

i have commented on that some 6 months backs

julie 20 May 2009
12:51:10 pm

rockstar – I am a fan of Arun Shourie and also Jaitley although my preference would be Shourie. Whether or not BJP think tank will put Shourie as the main face or not remains to be seen. Within the BJP you have the hardliners and the moderates and there is some division of opinion there.

On the economic front it will be an uphill task for MMS but let us see.

rockstar 20 May 2009
12:59:56 pm

btw the word secularism is itself used as big abuse in india because we have a party who ignores Supreme Court recommendation to exclude creamy layer from the reservation ( which means any reservation should be based on economic form not caste and religion)or for the fact a part which ignores uniform civil code( which makes everyone equal in law)

rks 20 May 2009
01:00:48 pm

Great! Now get to work

Som 20 May 2009
01:26:53 pm

“Your BJP lost. ..and ur wet dreams of seeing Modi as the PM has virtually hit the dust”

Street:Not the right language to use.Stay away from making such comment.

S T R E E T 20 May 2009
06:40:30 pm

“wet dreams” simply means a “desire” there… nothing else…but .. oh well.

Som 20 May 2009
07:35:11 pm

LINK

A wet dream is also known as a nocturnal emission. Nocturnal means “at night” and emission means “discharge.” This makes sense because a wet dream is when semen (the fluid containing sperm) is discharged from the penis during ejaculation while a guy’s asleep. Usually wet dreams occur during dreams that have sexual images. Sometimes guys wake up from a wet dream, but sometimes they sleep through it.

wet dream

Aarohi 20 May 2009
07:55:24 pm

I would be interested in hearing the thoughts of people on the Tamil Nadu-specific scene? Why do folks think DMK performed better than expected?

AIADMK wasn’t able to forge an alliance with some parties that eventually succeeded in getting a chunk of the anti-DMK vote. Most notably Vijaykanth’s party, which played spoiler in many constituencies. In other words, Vijaykanth was TN’s Chiranjeevi but on a smaller scale.

Aarohi 20 May 2009
07:59:00 pm

Although I have great respect for Arun Shourie, I feel he doesn’t have the mass base to be BJP’s top leader. Perhaps BJP can project him as a PM candidate with a more massy leader as the BJP head.

Som 20 May 2009
08:35:31 pm

The fastest counting of millions of votes in the world commenced began early morning on May 16. By forenoon, it was clear that the Congress had won the battle for the 15th Lok Sabha; all that remained were the details of the victor’s gains and the losses of the vanquished.

The great Indian electorate, in its wisdom, has decided to gift the country a stable Government dominated by the Congress and nominally run by the UPA. This is all the more remarkable because pre-election commentary had predicted a much more complicated result with a range of powerful regional satraps emerging as key players at the Centre and a close contest between the Congress and BJP.

The surprise results, however, have not only ensured that the Congress will form the next Union Government with economist Manmohan Singh embarking on his second consecutive term as Prime Minister, but it will be able to do so without needing to lean on a badly-mauled Left. Nor will it need the support of the likes of Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mr Ram Vilas Paswan. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had looked forward to playing the role of king-maker, is now reduced to cravenly offering ‘unconditional’ support to the Congress.

Political stability will no doubt push ambitious regional players to the margins and hopefully lead to further reduction in their strength in subsequent elections. For the economy, even viewed from an international perspective, a politically stable Government with built-in continuity is indeed a great boon.

Read the rest HERE

Som 20 May 2009
08:49:24 pm

“Although I have great respect for Arun Shourie, I feel he doesn’t have the mass base to be BJP’s top leader.”

That is one thing and he also comes across as someone who is too intransigent to deal with coalition partners, probably won’t succumb to their unreasonable demands.I think Arun Shourie might not be the right man for coalition politics but for efficient governance YES!

RAJ 20 May 2009
11:34:57 pm

BJP can do well to encourage leaders like Arun shurie,Arun Jaitly and Sushma Swaraj..

RAJ 20 May 2009
11:38:44 pm

“”Hahahahaaa…… ROFL.. man.. Elections are over. Your BJP lost. ..and ur wet dreams of seeing Modi as the PM has virtually hit the dust. Beat it man..”"”

Oh…You were talking to me?? LOL..i missed it ..What are you trying to say?? Mr street…Now i understand why you guys are so fearful of Modi…I dont know why he beats the shit out of some people…They should ask themselves ..”"why??”"

Qalandar 22 May 2009
06:46:17 pm

An interesting piece on the Bihar result:

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main41.asp?filename=Ne300509a_tide.asp

Swapan Dasgupta on the BJP: http://www.tehelka.com/story_main41.asp?filename=Ne300509the_vanquished.asp

Ashis Nandy on the “meaning” of the results: http://www.tehelka.com/story_m.....e_hour.asp

NyKavi 23 May 2009
12:44:11 pm

To quote one of the above articles in Q’s links:
“The middle classes were once the mainstay of the BJP. Indeed, it used to be taunted earlier as a middle class, urban party. In this election, the BJP has seen its middle class fall steeply — a situation it encountered only once before, in 1984.”
Is it quite possible that almost a decade since 1999, and 200+ million more Indians later, the BJP’s original middle class has gotten split into 2 groups: The first are those who were invested and benefitted from the economic growth, and remained loyal. The second are those that didnt really see much improvement in their finances and due to the cost burden increases of the last 10 yrs, find themselves at the margin right above the lower class. These second group of ppl probably voted en masse for the pro-poor UPA.

Qalandar 23 May 2009
12:47:12 pm

Aside: one good sign for the BJP is the number of people associated with the party or supportive of the party willing to introspect about the reasons underlying the party’s performance. We haven’t seen such introspection from the Congress — at least none discussed in public, beyond the usual platitudes — in the wake of 1996, 1998, and 1999, or even 2004 (when the party’s vote-share and seats were quite comparable to the 1999 result).

rockstar 23 May 2009
01:37:17 pm

http://www.expressbuzz.com/edi.....Z1Dypxc6U=

rockstar 23 May 2009
01:38:34 pm

this is ramdoss the previou minister in u.p.a regime only check some of my links in election thread which was closed specifically on tamil nadu

rockstar 23 May 2009
01:40:22 pm

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.....urpg-1.cms

q : this is dedicated to you

rockstar 23 May 2009
01:42:36 pm

one of the most balanced journalists in india speaking on media and this is the guy who have gone after them…. an alternate view which you will rarely see especially in english press in india

rockstar 23 May 2009
01:55:09 pm

dedicated to julie:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/DMK–Cong-won-using-money-power–alleges-Vaiko/462476

http://deshgujarat.com/2009/05.....on-8-june/

blame game has started

Qalandar 23 May 2009
01:58:42 pm

Thanks rockstar.

Vaiko is just a sore loser; after making a hue and cry and shameless support for the LTTE, some of these parties have to explain how they were rejected by the electorate… Undoubtedly there are election irregularities in all elections in India, but the notion that rigging explains the difference between a strong performance by the PMK and a weak one is not one I can swallow. Same goes elsewhere.

Qalandar 23 May 2009
02:00:50 pm

I think recount should be compulsory if margin is below a certain threshold. That’s how it is in the US and elsewhere too. For instance during the Rajasthan assembly elections the Congress’ state president lost an assembly seat by 1 vote.

rockstar 23 May 2009
02:19:44 pm

“Vaiko is just a sore loser; after making a hue and cry and shameless support for the LTTE, some of these parties have to explain how they were rejected by the electorate”

he is but again regarding how situation was handled in case of civilians who are dying there leave much to be desired since you are lawyer these EVM faced lawsuit before

http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/7561

so nothing wrong if people are questioning various parameter of that

rockstar 23 May 2009
02:34:58 pm

http://eci.nic.in/StatisticalReports/LS_2004/Vol_I_LS_2004.pdf

http://eci.nic.in/StatisticalReports/SE_2006/StatReport_TN_2006.pdf
http://eci.nic.in/press/data_phaseV.pdf
As per EC’s Website

No of Eligible Voters in TN 2004 LokSabha Election:4,72,52,271

No of Eligible Voters in TN 2006 Assembly Election: 4,66,03,352

No of Eligible Voters in TN 2009 LokSabha Election :4,16,41,328

when these data’s are there nothing wrong in questioning when you have solid base

but ya one rarely see these in our esteemed media

rockstar 23 May 2009
03:02:12 pm

http://clicknewsnet.com/latest.....php?id=379

btw q as independent bloggers we can discuss that only on whats happening …. politics and transparency is always worth discussing

Qalandar 23 May 2009
06:08:21 pm

Re: “politics and transparency is always worth discussing”

Agree completely. It is certainly not enough just to hold elections and to ensure that people can exercise the right to vote despite violence, displacement, riots, etc. A lot more needs to be done to clean up electoral rolls, make sure that people aren’t mistakenly removed (Kamal Haasan couldn’t vote as his name had inadvertently been removed).

Mavani 23 May 2009
10:58:01 pm

Simple thing is Cong has won a big victory and BJP has been totally defeated . Every party analysis will show its votes were less or more by 1 or 2 % but that will do nothing to change things .

BJP has shown no sign of wanting to learn from its mistakes . It is still wheelchair Advani as leader of opposition insted of younger people like Arun Jaitly or Modi taking over. Uttarakhand still has Khanduri . Ramshila are being moved near the Ramjanambhoomi thinking that it can bring votes .

On the other hand Cong is not willing to let go any of its allies though it is in a position to .

Calling Soniya Italian kutriya and Rahul baba or Priyanka as gudiya has not been taken well .

Time for moving on and handing over to younger brigade like Modi . Controversial or not Rahul Mahajan must be roped in .

Mavani 23 May 2009
11:00:46 pm

If Manmohan and Cong do even some work in 5 years , BJP will be reduced to less than 100 in 2014 unless a total overhaul is done . Most of its power hungry allies will move over to UPA side .

Aarohi 24 May 2009
05:03:40 am

Meenakshi Natrajan’s has been an intriguing election 2009 story that somehow didn’t get the attention it deserves. She is well educated, a grass root politician and doesn’t belong to a political family. And, she won from Mandsaur, a BJP stronghold.