Box office analysis – Records all set to tumble with GHAJINI
Author : Joginder Tuteja
First weekend performance of latest release
No, WAFAA didn’t turn out to be the NISHABD moment for Rajesh Khanna. In fact all it managed to do was wipe off the bare minimum fan following that Rajesh Khanna was probably holding on to after loosing his star status in the early 80s. The movie didn’t even get a proper release anywhere, whether single screens or multiplexes, and is a huge all around disaster.
Last Week’s Movies
RNBDJ has upped the ante for Shah Rukh Khan with the first week collections surpassing those of OM SHANTI OM. While the latter had made 40 crores at the end of Week 1, Adi-SRK combine has done better with 41 crores. Taking into consideration all the factors that were going against the release of RNBDJ, not to mention the very fact that it hasn’t been designed as a quintessential blockbuster and is instead a small-n-simple film, such collections are indeed huge. From the ROI perspective, the film is a much bigger success than an OM SHANTI OM or even SINGH IS KINNG, WELCOME, DHOOM 2 and GOLMAAL RETURNS that have made mega bucks in the recent times. However, they did cost far more and were sold at much bigger prices.
Coming to the film’s collections, they have been very good to excellent all over with Mumbai bringing in more than 6.5 crores, Delhi being close to 4.5 crores, Delhi NCR impressing at close to 2.75 crores further and Ahmedabad too crossing the 2 crores mark. Second weekend of the film began on a good note too with no crash in collections, as some soothsayers were predicting after an excellent opening weekend. The film is on it’s way to be a comfortable 70 crores earner at the least but the 80 crores + figure of OM SHANTI OM is virtually impossible, what with GHAJINI all set to take a historic opening.
From the Past
Prior to the release of RNBDJ, anything that released in the fortnight gone by either flopped or worse, became a trade disaster.
MAHARATHI fell by 90% and has all but folded up under 2 crores. On the other hand DIL KABADDI wasn’t anything better with more than 80% crash resulting in only 40 lakhs being added to it’s total. At 4 crores, the film is down and out. SORRY BHAI too has cut a sorry figure with a full and final closure at 1.5 crores. OLLO managed 30 lakhs more but that can’t save the film from carrying a ‘Flop’ tag as it stares at a 6.5 crores final total.
DOSTANA fell by 75% but 50 lakhs more coming in was still a better tale to tell than other movies that were running in the week gone by. At 46.5 crores, the film is now breathing it’s last at the box office, especially with the DVDs hitting the stands.
In the Future
GHAJINI is all set to enjoy the biggest release ever for a Bollywood film and now one can safely say that there are no doubts for the film to be taking the biggest box office opening ever, as far as the opening week is concerned. While SINGH IS KINNG, RAB NE BANA DI JODI, OM SHANTI OM and GOLMAAL RETURNS have enjoyed the biggest ever numbers till date (all these records being created in last one year), the way GHAJINI has been hyped beyond proportion, there are no doubts that the Aamir Khan starrer would set the records tumbling all over.
Currently, SINGH IS KINNG holds the opening week record at 44 crores with RAB NE BANA DI JODI being next at 41 crores. However, GHAJINI can be easily predicted to not just outperform the collections of SINGH IS KINNG but also cross the elusive 50 crores milestone, something which was unimaginable till about a couple of years back. However, today the way marketing strategy has taken a different meaning altogether and with the brand Aamir going all out for the film’s promotion, GHAJINI making 50 crores doesn’t look impossible. Add to that the fact that it has an 8-day week to it’s disposal (with paid previews on 24th adding on to the numbers as well) and it would be rather surprising if the film doesn’t meet doesn’t meet the mark.
A word of caution here though; all the aforementioned movies i.e. SINGH IS KINNG, RAB NE BANA DI JODI and OM SHANTI OM were the ones which were liked by the audience. As for GOLMAAL RETURNS, it didn’t sustain as well after the first week but then it had reached it’s saturation point too. So the point is that the film has to be good too to enjoy such huge inflow of audience. As for GHAJINI one can’t doubt that it would be a good film. Still, it can’t be denied that there is always a ‘what if’ factor. If there is any negativity after the first weekend, it may not garner such huge numbers.
However, the underlining factor here is that GHAJINI comes with an Aamir Khan tag and chances of a ‘bad product’ in the offering are near to nil. So here is keeping one’s fingers crossed, expecting the film to be genuinely well made and if that turns out to be the case, there is no stopping Mr. Khan and 50 crores in the kitty of those who have invested in the film!