Clash of the Big Three : RNBDJ, Ghajini & CCTC (My take) : NAACHGAANA

Clash of the Big Three : RNBDJ, Ghajini & CCTC (My take)

November 19th, 2008

Here is my own take on a potentially explosive box office period in December 08 and January 09. Three films, crores at stake and the three biggest stars in the industry today (although Hrithik is part of this group) and three potentially huge box office earners. This is our very own Spiderman 3 vs. Shrek 3 vs. Pirates 3 in the space of two crucial months.

First up is Shahrukh Khan’s Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi releasing on December 12th.

Plusses
(a) The potent box office combination of SRK & Aditya
(b) A potential de-construction of the Rahul/Raj persona done by the “creator” himself
(c) SRK’s only release in the year

It is reported the film will open on appreciable amount of prints but not historic. Lets do a bit of analysis on what is the market potential here [for all intense purposes I will use BOI because they give weekly historical figures]

800 cinemas is the prediction which puts it in line with a release similar to Welcome in 2007. This will give the film approximately 40-45Cr market potential in its first week. This is not quite the carpet bombing range, but is a big enough range to suggest that trending of the order Chak De! India or Taare Zameen Par is realistically ruled out. However, with so many plusses in favour here, one could expect occupancies to be very high here. Simply put, RNBDJ could open in the range 35-40Cr quite easily.

Here on in, much depends on the strength of the film. A film that is loved could easily translate into a second week in the range of 25-28Cr (30% fall), an immensely liked film could work out to be 21-24Cr (40% fall) or strictly decent affair could be 17-20Cr (50%).

The third week is of course interesting because Aamir Khan’s Ghajini will release on December 25th.

Plusses
(a) Remake factor
(b) Rahman’s potentially chartbusting music
(c) Aamir’s only release in the year

Ghajini looks to be going in for the widest and biggest release ever, with 1,100 cinemas predicted. This will give it market potential of approximately 60Cr in its first week.

Ghajini’s fate is less dependant on RNBDJ – to show this one should follow historical trends in the third week of any film. The highest third week on record is that of Lage Raho Munnabhai in 2007 and that was around 12Cr. This was a clear week too for LRM. In terms of competition and competing against another big film, the highest third week is Chak De! India which scored 8Cr opposite Heyy Babby. Note in doing so, it fell by 45% i.e. competition affected its run in this week but thereafter it fell minimally by 20-30%.

So to assess RNBDJ vs. Ghajini, few points are important. The highest third week is 12Cr and this is for a truly loved movie (LRM). The highest third week with competition is 8Cr for CDI and that too for a loved movie.

On the assumption RNBDJ is loved;
Third week = 13-14Cr
Thereafter, adding another 20Cr could take the full total to 93-102Cr.

On the assumption RNBDJ is liked;
Third week = 8-9Cr
Thereafter, adding another 8-9Cr could take the full total to 72-82Cr

On the assumption RNBDJ is decent;
Third week = 5-6Cr
Thereafter, adding another 3-4Cr could take the full total to 60-70Cr

Now to Ghajini. Its first week loosely depends on what RNBDJ is doing but one can see from the Welcome vs. TZP clash that even if the “smaller” competitor makes 16Cr, the “major” one can still make 35Cr odd. Further, Fashion vs. Golmaal Returns re-inforces the claim as does Om Shanti Om vs. Saawariya.

With a wide release, one can only assume the film is going all out to carpet bomb the box office. It this scenario I will assume like RNBDJ, the film succeeds in week one and could register anything between 40-50Cr depending on how potent a force RNBDJ proves to be.

The second week like RNBDJ depends on a number of scenarios;

If Ghajini’s loved;
Second week = 23-30Cr
Thereafter, 20-25Cr (taking into account CCTC competition in latter weeks) could take the full total to 83-105Cr

If Ghajini’s liked;
Second week = 20-23Cr
Thereafter, 15-20Cr (taking into account CCTC competition in latter weeks) could take the full total to 75-93Cr

If Ghajini’s decent;
Second week = 13-18Cr
Thereafter, 10-15Cr (taking into account CCTC competition in latter weeks) could take the full total to 63-83Cr

The third film releases on January 18th 2009 and is Akshay Kumar’s Chandni Chowk to China.

Plusses
(a) Akshay Kumar and comedy
(b) Potentially show stealing theme fusing Indo-Chinese humour
(c) Warner Brothers involvement

In my opinion the people associated here will note down exactly what Ghajini opened on and try and surpass that. One could see the first week market potential here to in the region of 65Cr.

The first week by default then could be anything in the region of 45-55Cr to go all out for a clean record. Of course if Ghajini is affected by RNBDJ competition, CCTC will be even less so affected by Ghajini because the gap is now three weeks. But in any case, the highest fourth week on record is 7Cr for Lage Raho Munnabhai and roughly the same for CDI and TZP. Very little to worry about here, but should be considered.

If CCTC’s loved;
Second week = 28-35Cr
Thereafter, 25-30Cr could take the full total to 98-120Cr

If CCTC’s liked;
Second week = 24-28Cr
Thereafter, 16-22Cr could take the full total to 85-105Cr

If CCTC’s decent;
Second week = 17-22Cr
Thereafter, 12-16Cr could take the full total to 74-93Cr

The likelihood of all three being loved is low. Even all three being liked is low. However, I would not rule out one of the films getting close to 100Cr.

I have assumed that all fulfil week one expectations. A few things that can change things is if RNBDJ is loved, Ghajini suffers a bit in each scenario. If Ghajini is loved, CCTC suffers a bit but not as much as Ghajini would simply because of the extra week gap. Of course if RNBDJ is strictly ok and Ghajini is loved, the scenarios for RNBDJ could see a much steeper decline. In the end most of this depends on the overall acceptance of the film and the “like” factor.

Assuming each film is “liked” then RNBDJ, Ghajini and CCTC could make 75Cr, 80Cr & 85Cr respectively or something of this order. One could laugh at such a claim but note in direct opposition a liked film Welcome and loved one TZP made 75Cr and 60Cr respectively and the latter released on 400 cinemas odd - and week one can easily do half the job for each film!

My prediction would be that between the three films, they will rack up 200Cr at the Indian Box office at the bare minimum – an average of 67Cr which is not much considering Race has hit that near enough.

Note no scenario considers either films to be duds.

There Are 43 Responses So Far. »

Comment by rks on 19 November 2008:

Good analysis. What if any (or all) of them suck? Analysis points to above 60cr for all three movies. Any chance of less than 50cr?
Comment by JustaFan on 19 November 2008:

Even if these are above average movies, none should make less then 50 CR. I just don’t see how it’s possible that any of the big 4 can give a full blown commerical movie that makes less then 50. Anything below 50 should be considered a failure for the big 4.
Comment by rks on 19 November 2008:

Jay, you alluded in this comment ” few things that can change things is if RNBDJ is loved..”; Consumer ability to spend decreases with each release. In that scenario RNBDJ has most chances of patronage.
Comment by jayshah on 19 November 2008:

rks I agree. Of course if RNBDJ is loved it will decrease chances for Ghajini most [note PHP made 40Cr and Heyy Babby around 50Cr on BOI despite releasing two weeks after Fanaa and CDI respectively. Ghajini is arriving much bigger. So even though a "loved" film can hurt a release, looking at numbers 99% of films make at least 60% if not upto 80% of their returns in their first two weeks. Barring a TZP/LRM which is 50% or CDI which is 55%. So to really hurt Ghajini, RNBDJ needs to be a potent film overall, the wider the release, the more its potentcy is reduced by the time Ghajini arrives]

But if Ghajini works to its nullified to some extent.

I think the least any of these movies should be making is 40Cr. I say this because JBJ/Saawariya or that type of film made 25Cr odd. Tashan made similar without backing of multiplexes. An absolute dud would bottom up at 40Cr IMO.

A decent flick is analogous to say Race type.
A liked flick is analogous to say OSO or Welcome.
A loved flick (which I don’t think we have seen for a huge release) is closest to LRM, but even a D2 was close looking at its opening of 35Cr and finish at 85Cr.
Comment by MG on 19 November 2008:

“It is reported the film will open on appreciable amount of prints but not historic.”…has this actually been reported somewhere? IMO it would be a stupid move by YRF to go with anything less than a massive release. They dont have the luxury of a clear run in the subsequent weeks and if Ghajini and CCTC click, that would spell trouble for Rabe ne unless it is an absolute classic

BTW saw an SRK interview on AVS where he mentioned that Adi describes Rab ne as a comedy film with yashrajpan….looks like Adi is taking no chances with this one
Comment by beld on 19 November 2008:

Why is cctc on this thread? It shud be compared with dostana and gr and not rnbdj and ghajini
Comment by jeegs on 19 November 2008:

Its bit early to say on print counts though i do believe that if Rab ne works well ghajini wont have that big a release as they planned too . Studio 18 released SIK with 22-24-26 shows which i doubt would happen with Rab ne there . Also i think Rab ne has better release strategy than Ghajini considering it first 2 weeks don’t have competition and when competition arrives they get holidays on Weekends . Also Ghajini , Rab ne are much bigger films than HB or CDI so i doubt they would not be affected by eachother .
Comment by beld on 19 November 2008:

Btw, is this an apple to apple comparison at all. We are discussing revenue when cost basis are different by a margin from what I hear. Isn’t cctc and ghajini closer to 50cr cost and rnbdj 30cr cost. Obviously - if this is true rnbdj is placed the best as it releases first and has 2 weeks free run where it will more than recoup investments. Here is where ghajini is hurt - for a big budget movie - it shud have released first, me thinks. And another huge factor for rnbdj is the upcoming debacle called yuvraj - the get over salman effect will be huge. That way its good that 2 quality movies with quality actors are sandwiched between 2 cheeseheads
Comment by ideaunique on 19 November 2008:

Jay, good write up here - if Ghajini is coming with 1100 prints - I believe the theatres which are going to screen it will give it ample scope and maximum shows in the first week - so evenif RNBDJ is loved, I doubt it will be running during more than 1 or 2 shows in a day…..I am for 60 cr first week Ghajini….in any case..
Comment by jeegs on 19 November 2008:

if Rab ne is loved Ghajini wont be able to maximise shows . multiplexes wont give 24 shows to a new film when other film is being loved . that is why i say one cannot know exactly with what prints Ghajini is coming this moment .
Comment by manoj16_391 on 20 November 2008:

Jayshah,
Impressive analysis from u.Agree with almost everything except,

“Plusses
(a) Remake factor”

Is remaking a Plus?
Comment by jayshah on 20 November 2008:

jeegs I think maximising shows isn’t an issue. Golmaal Returns reportedly got less multiplex shows but still posted well opposite Fashion. Ghajini can be hurt but RNBDJ has to be on the money for that to happen. In fact if its an OSO or Welcome or Krrish type deal then the third week onwards won’t hurt much. I think if the gap was one week then Ghajini suffers most, two weeks depends on how good RNBDJ is and three weeks gap is not much in today’s times - so CCTC has the least to worry about. I do agree RNBDJ has an edge with the cleanest two weeks, but the “edge” in the end will be for the film which works best.
Comment by jayshah on 20 November 2008:

manoj - hard to know but I think with Ghajini it is less debatable then say remakes of UJ, Don, Sholay. The latter three were hindi remakes, whereas this is a Tamil remake. It depends on how many of the hindi audiences really know of the original.
Comment by ideaunique on 20 November 2008:

That way Ghajini makers have made a smart move - eventhough they have 3 weeks before CCTC - they are going for a kill with 1100 prints……makes lot of business sense…
Comment by beld on 20 November 2008:

Cmon guys, ghajini may affect rnbdj’s 3rd week or later but to even consider that a akshay movie will affect an aamir or srk movie is preposterous. I don’t think cctc will have any impact on the other 2
Comment by neelu on 20 November 2008:

@Jay - Tamil films have been remade before and the results have been mixed. On you list you forgot Devdas and Parineeta.
Comment by beld on 20 November 2008:

jay - small mistatement. ghajini is a hindi remake of tamil movie which was a remake of a english movie
impact shud be minimal - coz its not a mystery kind of movie. no reason why fans of the tamil movie wont go and see the hindi movie - there is no mystery in the story - its just bang bang - thank u - bang bang action kind of movie
Comment by ideaunique on 20 November 2008:

Latest Surya movie has one multiplex in Chennai (www.mayajaal.com) playing 29 (ya, twenty nine) shows in one day - you can check out on the website….
….Now Surya himself has recommended Aamir to do his role…recently he told in an interview that he is sure that Hindi Ghajini will be 200% better than Tamil one and he himself is an aamir-fan…also there are lot of other factors like ARR, ASIN, MURUGADOSS (MAJOR FACTOR THIS)…..I will not be surprised if Tamilnadu alone brings 10-15 cr for Ghajini….
Comment by ideaunique on 20 November 2008:

http://www.nowrunning.com/showtimes/Chennai/Chennai/default.aspx?hall=830

Check out the above link and see the show-timings for SURYA movie……and it is running to packed houses all over I believe….
Comment by ideaunique on 20 November 2008:

For me, Ghajini first week 50-60 cr is a foregone conclusion….Jay, any idea how much a Front-page (FULL PAGE) ad in reputed newspapers cost? On Aamir’s web-site, I have given a suggestion that on 24th Dec - if such full-page ads for GHAJINI are carried out in let us say 10-15 major newspapers all over india - it will create huge interest not that it is already not there….and I think they did publish full page ad recently in FILM INFORMATION or somewhere…..
Comment by satyam on 20 November 2008:

Great piece Jay.. I do think the chance of any movie doing 100 crores is rather low in terms of probability. If you notice even the biggest grossers seem to be baselining much below this. D2 or OSO are obvious examples but usually it’s not more than 70 crores or so.

I think it’s not entirely inexplicable. Because you get massive initials by flooding the market as you know. You’re basic top loading the audience. The question of trending is a little deceptive here. A CDI can trend that well because it never maxes out the audience in week 1. More ‘growth potential’ here. With an OSO anyone with a pulse watches it in week 1. Less people left for remaining weeks. Then you’re depending on repeats to an extent. For this the movie has to be loved, not just liked. Now with D2 and OSO there are enough frills where you can probably watch it multiple times even if you don’t exactly love it. But this won’t be true for Ghajini.

Leaving this aside (the fact that you need enough people to go in for repeats) the fact is that you get massive initials by playing to the lowest common denominator and really making the film as universally acceptable as possible. To do this however compromise in quality is more likely than less. So you have great entertainers but films that don’t necessarily ‘connect’ in the truest sense and I think the best trenders are films that really connect (LRM for example though even this film didn’t maximize the initial by any means).

I have long had the idea that films like OSO and D2 have in a sense underperformed. Despite everything I’ve said here these films are pretty much 2-3 week runs. If you compare Hollywood blockbusters, even disappointing ones, often trend a lot better than this.

We saw with RDB a film that opened very well (MP like initial more or less) and then trended magnificently. This is really the model for what a big film should be doing. But again RDB truly ‘connected’ with its base audience.

In this sense a Ghajini can reach the highest total imaginable more easily than RNBDJ or CCTC because this film cannot work in any sense without truly connecting. But of course it is far more probably that the other two will get to higher totals.

Incidentally here’s the other thing about these films. All three star leads who are not exactly the hottest when it comes to the younger multiplex audiences. The very segment that dominates within that under 35 group or so that itself dominates the overall multiplex audience. Within that group you will find the greatest number of ‘repeats’. Which is why you have a JTYJN trending so well. Basically someone likes a male or female lead (works more for the former) and is willing to watch a film 5 times just for this reason. In other words in stark disproportion to the quality of the film. But with SRK, Aamir, Akshay that factor isn’t in play. It’s much more likely to work with younger stars. That’s what D2 had in many ways (and potentially a film like Dostana has). So you can really eliminate this factor for those three films.

I still think it is most likely for RNBDJ to get to the highest total. Why? Because everyone shows up for this film. It is still the most ‘review proof’ or ‘WOM proof’ of the three (if people call all three films ok RNBDJ wins). Whether I’m a genre fan or not I will show up for RNBDJ (unless it gets terrible reviews which isn’t likely). But the RNBDJ base won’t show up for Ghajini the same way. CCTC is somewhere in between those two films. Similarly quality-wise Ghajini has the highest hurdle to clear. The audience tolerance for comedies and love stories is just about infinite! And again RNBDJ has a base advantage. The family audience or the auntie crowd as I call it is just looking for passable fare. The younger audiences who loved Dostana are just not likely to love RNBDJ (though they’ll show up). But family audiences are very stable and a very strong component of the multiplex market (they is essence saved JA, the younger audience pretty much ran away from this one).

There are also structural advantages that CCTC or RNBDJ have. Corporate bookings are a big part of the multiplex deal today. It’s a bit like the same in American sports. But cinema is a different deal. if you’re taking the client out do you want something like Khakee or KHNH?! Then there’s the other aspect here. Families who treat the theaters as a ‘night out on the town’ and spend huge amounts buying not only tickets but also snacks and dinners and what not at these theaters. Again you’re going there essentially to ‘relax’ and have a good time. This kind of attitude is more conducive to lighter fare not heavy stuff.

With all of this there are of course serious films that have done well though I would submit that barring RDB (for which the youth audience really powered things) most of these others have in a sense underperformed. And even RDB was pretty light for the first half.

Now if anyone can overcome these hurdles it’s Aamir. If anyone knows these audiences and knows how to sell a movie to them it’s Aamir. But still because of these factors you expect a blockbuster in Ghajini, not necessarily the biggest grosser around, given the sorry state of action cinema in Bollywood for the longest time. Sure Aamir will sugar coat it, the romantic track will be strong. But the repeat audience for action doesn’t reside in multiplexes. So what this leaves Ghajini with is real connection with audiences. This is not a bar CCTC or RNDBJ have to clear.

You know I rant about the current Bollywood system for a reason. It’s just not a level playing field. Different genres dominate in different ages but the system is in a sense ‘rigged’ in favor of those audiences who can spend the most and these audiences are also politically the most conservative because they’re the most empowered by the new Indian post-90s economy and not really in it for revolutionary gestures. This is why any film that questions those ideologies really gets mauled. When a Dostana is successful I know it’s genre but I also know that the system is heavily tilted for such a film to profit fully.
Comment by satyam on 20 November 2008:

And I too think that the remake is a non-factor for Ghajini. First off 99% of audiences are not familiar with the Tamil original. Normally one would say that if it worked big time in Tamil it’s a safer movie but of course given the genre we can throw that idea out of the window! It’s really completely Aamir on this one. He thought the subject could be sold to Hindi audiences if done the right way. It’s his prestige powering this film. No big banner here, not even a known actress. Which is why I’ve always said that this film would be an enormous triumph for Aamir if it worked in a big way.

The folks who think this is the safest thing around are mostly playing a cynical game to steal credit away from Aamir or else they’re a bit naive about what’s at stake.
Comment by Qalandar on 20 November 2008:

Comprehensive comment here satyam. I would add that even with Dostana, the film is unlikely to play well with family audiences, and I expect the film to under-perform (certainly relative to the “comedy potential”). While I didn’t like the film, I do think that it has some subversive gestures (not least of them the odd Maa Da Laadla song and remix video, and more generally its casual acceptance of homosexuality as one among the sexual configurations on offer), and I don’t see the family audiences being on board for this. Conversely, the Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na-sort of trending stability will not be provided by the younger crowd because the film IMO simply isn’t good enough.
Comment by jayshah on 20 November 2008:

Qalander I wouldn’t be surprised if Dostana holds for another week. For me the gags are done in entertaining manner in fist half overall - some bits don’t work but overall the first half is fun. And I think there is generally good word of mouth on the film, whether it holds for long is questionable.
Comment by rks on 20 November 2008:

Jay: IMO It would hold better marginally than other comedies.
Comment by satyam on 20 November 2008:

Qalandar: Yes I quite agree and said so earlier. The family audience cannot be as embracing of this film as say KHNH! This is by the way why I think we are seeing somewhat lower than expected number in for example the US. However I will also add that family audiences here are probably behind multiplex family audiences in India. In any case your point is certainly one I agree with.

Dostana could only have come from Karan Johar! There is really no male-female erotic equation on display here. The two leads claim to be interested in Priyanka but really she’s like a pal for them (a composite of Betty and Veronica!). Meanwhile the one straight relationship in the film involves the rather staid Bobby Deol! Johar is surely having some fun. No real erotic angle to the heterosexual relationships! As a viewer of Dostana you’re either safely heterosexual if you’re female or in the homosexual position if you’re male! Priyanka’s ‘hot’ many males would scream. yes, but here it’s a defense reaction!

On the subversive bit I think what Johar gets right (more in the first half) is that he also makes fun of gay stereotyping. In one sense it could be said that this film opens up a space for homosexual representation. On the other hand the fact that it’s just make believe and we’re supposed to laugh at the comedy takes away the sting (no pun intended). But yet again Johar is also lampooning gay stereotypes. Plus as I just suggested his heterosexuals don’t seem to be more fun either!

By the way this is why the two segments most out of step in the second half were the individual love sequences Abhi and John have with Priyanka. Because in a rather marvelous irony there was an exact inversion here. It really seemed to be these ‘gay’ guys trying hard to be ’straight’. The scenes didn’t convince even if these seemed to be duplicates of what we’ve seen earlier in Johar films. Because Johar set up the male-male chemistry a bit too successfully here! When Abhishek gets angry towards the end — “are you blind?” — the jokes on him! Priyanka can’t ’see’ it because we can’t see it either! The ambiguity at the end was therefore a bit of a fitting conclusion for Johar!

So in some ways this was a clever film but they could have made a much better work out of it. The ‘going straight’ bit in the second half with Deol and the ‘boys’ sabotaging his relationship didn’t seem ‘emotionally’ real.

The title is humorous. There was always the homoerotic to all those great ‘dosti’ films of the past. And therefore the Munnabhai joke was rather funny. But they didn’t continue in this vein in the second half. Also the cleverness of certain elements was brought down by (as you’ve also noted) some really tasteless stuff at other points.
Comment by Aarohi on 20 November 2008:

Jay: You have given three categories of figures - Loved, Liked, Decent. What about Average, Disappointment and Rejection scenarios
Comment by jayshah on 20 November 2008:

I didn’t see the point of Abhishek taking Priyanka out to a fun-fair and that diary or John and his dinner and KKHH dance sequence. Its the moment in the film where it got K-Joed. Took the sting out of it - from a fun entertainer it went into melodrama and moisty eyes within minutes [and may I add it felt out of place and such a warning was never provided. It just appeared odd]. Where it just about held up was after Desi-Girl I thought we were going to really get corny with a serious love quadruple, but thankfully the gays decided to try and ruin the relationship with more fun intended (waxed chests and all those pranks) - still the inevitability of a showdown between Priyanka-Bobby, with crying and upset Priyanka with her “friends” and desperate boys trying to apologise was always going to happen. And the ending was KANK fashion wasn’t it? What was Preity and Abhishek in KANK who thought SRK and Rani got hitched, was John and Abhishek here.

Aarohi - I avoided those - well decent = average pretty much. I didn’t want the piece to be negative so as to avoid conflict with fellow NGers
Comment by Aarohi on 20 November 2008:

I have a feeling that at least 2 of these 3, if not all 3, will underperform.
Comment by satyam on 20 November 2008:

Jay: Agreed on that entire set of thoughts.
Comment by jayshah on 20 November 2008:

No really the best second half here would be that the gays and the audience is kept in secret and Priyanka has another “half”. Abhi-John play sherlock holmes (but we never are shown the identity) and it culminates in Desi-Girl at the end. Abhi-John are singing about their own “desi-girl” [Priyanka] and Priyanka is singing about her own “desi-girl” - yes she turns out to be lesbian. Instead of Bobby special appearance we could have been treated to Katrina Kaif instead!
Comment by Som on 20 November 2008:

Lol Jay! First half “gays”, 2nd half “lesbians”.Wow! That would indeed have been an interesting film.
Comment by Som on 20 November 2008:

Just my two cents:

Given three films connect with the audience, Rab Ne will do better than a Ghajni and a CCTC because of the “genre” it belongs to.Rab Ne>CCTC>Ghajni is what I want to go with unless “Ghajni” proves to be some sort of an excellent masala movie and generates a mass hysteria.
Comment by Qalandar on 20 November 2008:

I agree with Som on the BO predictions…

…in terms of my personal excitement and anticipation, the order is reversed for me, with Ghajini –> Chandni Chowk to China —> Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi.

Jay: ha, that would have made for a better film for usre. [Lagta hai meri tarah aap bhi flop par flop dekhne par tulay huay hain.]
Comment by satyam on 20 November 2008:

In at least the Fame chain Dostana seems do be doing more shows than Yuvvraaj in week 2 for the most part..
Comment by neelu on 20 November 2008:

In all the examples provides to deconstruct certain films - the only film that really trended exceptionally well was LRM. The rest follow very similar trajectories. As for JA - as far as I could tell its target audience was young and the film connected well with them due to the Hritik factor.
Comment by akshay shah on 20 November 2008:

GHAJINI…CCTC..RNBDJ for hype for me!
Comment by neelu on 20 November 2008:

CCTC..RNBDJ……….GHAJINI for me. CCTC comes pretty close to Rab ne for now based on that one teaser.
Comment by ideaunique on 20 November 2008:

Actually, I think the idea of 1100 prints (flooding) is quite simple….can they manage to draw 1 crore people in Multiplexes (I don’t know exactly how many multiplexes India have and how many seats each one have) but assuming that there are 1000 multiplexes each having an average 3 screens and each screen having an average 300 seats - so if a multiplex chooses on an average 5 shows of Ghajini in a day (some will show 20-30 shows in first week but I am taking average/minimum) - that makes 1500 seats for one multiplex in one day - for 1000 multiplex - the number will got o 15 lac seats - on average, 1 ticket costs Rs. 100/- in multiplex - so if the first day is housefull - it will generate Rs. 15 cr on the first day, if not then Rs. 10-12 cr in the first day, same will be on 2nd, 3rd,4th day (as it has 4 day weekend) - and then there are Xmas holidays, new year holidays - so all in all, Ghajini can manage to draw 1 crore people only in multiplexes - then also according to Rs. 100 per ticket - it will make Rs. 100 cr……and I have a strong gut feeling that it is going to make it, add to this overseas and exteneded weeks run in India……
Comment by Gabber on 20 November 2008:

Jay, Satyam : Agree on that entire set of thoughts.
Comment by jayshah on 16 December 2008:

I think here we could be looking at scenario 3, opening 35-40Cr, 2nd week 17-20Cr, 3rd week 5-6Cr (Ghajini release), 4th week onwards 3-4Cr. So based on BOI, this would give 60-70Cr.
Comment by goodfella on 16 December 2008:

Having seen the Rab reviews now, it’s almost certain that, regardless of BO, I’ll likely enjoy Ghajini and CCTC, (particularly the latter) far more.
Comment by rudresh on 16 December 2008:

i am still looking for scinerio:
1) 1st week ~ 40 cr
2) 2nd weekend=15Cr+ thus second week >20 cr
3)3rd weekend ~ 10cr and third week ~13-14 cr
so three weeks ~ 73-75 cr

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