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Will the Khans save Bollywood?
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November 17th, 2008

Rediff

Hindi film industry’s fortunes are tied to three major films featuring Shah Rukh Khan , Salman Khan  and Aamir Khan  to be released next month.

December could well turn out to be the crucial month for the Hindi film industry. If Bollywood’s three forthcoming films starring Aamir Khan, Salman Khan and Shah Rukh Khan in Ghajini , Yuvvraaj, and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi, respectively, become commercially hit then 2008 may prove to be a good year for the Hindi film industry, especially at the time of the economic slowdown.

A scene from YuvvraajReleasing in December, Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi is a Yashraj film featuring Shah Rukh Khan and the newcomer Anushka Sharma in the lead roles. Yuvvraaj is a Subhash Ghai  film with Salman Khan, Anil Kapoor , Katrina Kaif  and others while Aamir Khan’s Ghajini is the re-make of a superhit Tamil film.

Surprisingly, despite a poor start at the beginning of this year, so far, 2008 has seen about 8-10 per cent increase in the box-office collections of the top 10 Hindi films compared to those in 2007.

According to film experts and leading trade portals, these numbers are based on the overall box-office collections including those reported from the overseas market and from the sale of TV rights, among others.

This means, that the top 10 Hindi films released this year — among them, Singh Is Kinng , Jodhaa Akbar , Race and Jaane Tu  Ya Jaane Na, have generated more cash at the box-office than the top 10 films of 2007 like Om Shanti Om, Welcome and Taare Zameen Par . All eyes are now set on the three important releases of the three Khans of Bollywood.

A scene from Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi“It’s a little early to bring out the calculators. But initial estimates are that Bollywood has so far seen over Rs 800 crore in box-office collections from its top 10 films compared to Rs 740 crore generated by the top ten flicks of 2007,” says a film analyst from Mumbai on condition of anonymity.

However, according to him, if the Aamir, Salman and Shah Rukh Khan films to be released next month don’t do well, then the 2007 story may look slightly better compared to the current year.

Says a senior executive of a Delhi-based multiplex chain: “We suffered a dip in the box-office collections because of Indian Premier League earlier this year. A lot is riding on Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir and Salman Khan films and we expect the audience to come to the theatre to watch them.”

Last year, it was Om Shanti Om (November 2007), Welcome (December 2007) and Taare Zameen Par (December 2007) that made the cash registers ring for the Hindi film industry. “We are hoping for an encore with the three December releases this year,” says a trade analyst.

There Are 24 Responses So Far. »

  1. Comment by manoj16_391 on 17 November 2008:

    This year has also been better in terms of Quality.
    This year saw a MORE MATURED audience compared to the last few years.
    This year saw the Classic Jodhaa-Akbar which is easily one of the most well-received movies in last 5 years and won accolades both in India and at the international level. Other acclaimed and successful films like A Wednesday ,WTS,RO,Fashion etc would have been big flops 2 years back but they all turned out to be hits clearly indicating that the audience has matured .It is a good thing.Bollywood is progressing.

  2. Comment by A C H I L L E S on 17 November 2008:

    If we compare the theatrical business of 07 and 08:

    Last year the top 5 domestic hits consisted of 86 crores OSO, 76 crores Welcome & three 60+ crores grossers in Partner, CDI and TZP.

    This year the top 5 consists of 75 crores SIK, two 60+ grossers in JA, Race and two 55 crores or so grossers in JTYJN and GR(expected).

    Till date 08 is lagging behind 07 … but some biggies are yet to release.

  3. Comment by ideaunique on 17 November 2008:

    Ghajini - 125 cr, RNBDJ - 70 CR, Yuvraj - 50 cr :-)

  4. Comment by beld on 17 November 2008:

    To take off from where ach left. Top 5 movie comparisons in no order

    Sik = welcome bo wise, sik < welcome quality wise
    Rnbdj oso quality wise
    Ghajini > tzp bo wise, ghajini < tzp quality wise
    Yuvraj 2007 hits(bb, hey baby) bo wise. Quality wise jtyjn better - others all trash.

    Small good movies of 2008(aamir, wednesday, mumbai meri jaan, dasvidaniyah(?)) >= 2007 (life in a metro, johny g,bheja fry) quality wise

    So all in all - pretty good fight between 07 and 08. One category where 07 is way better is music. Other than ja in 2008 - I don’t find anything of note in 08 music wise.
    As for flops, drona = rgv ki aag, jbj = tashan,

  5. Comment by sandy on 17 November 2008:

    I personally think 2008 has lagged behind 2007 in every sense of the word. 2007 had a lovely mix of small and big films. The year was pretty mediocre still CDI arrived on the scene but after that the hits just kept piling up. And I certainly don’t want to compare Welcome to SIK. The former was a genuine entertainer and its trending proved it. Also quality-wise, neither Ghajini nor Rab Ne look like anything close to CDI or TZP. So the only aspect to watch out for is their commercial prospects.

    JA, Jaane Tu, Wednesday and Rock On were decent of the lot this year but no way comparable to the best.

  6. Comment by Som on 17 November 2008:

    Don’t know how the remaining one and half months will eventually turn out for Bollywood,few big movies(Dostana has released and may well be a success) are on the line, the stakes are high and a lot riding on them. But It has been a year where most of the big films have either underperformed or not done well. Jodha Akbar of course is an exception which might not have opened as strongly as it was expected but sustained well and reached a respectable gross at the end without releasing in Rajasthan. Race and Singh Is King could have easily done much more taking into consideration the sort of openings both movies got. Golmaal Returns showed how a movie can open really huge taking the advantage of a long 5 days extended Diwali weekend and fizzle out at the blink of the eyes. Sarkar Raaj again was an under performer. And much hyped movies like Drona, Tashan and to some extent Kidnap have failed miserably to keep the cash register ringing. As opposed to this, medium budget movies like Jane Tu Ya Jane Na and Rock On and few small movies like Aamir,Wednesday, Welcome to Sajjanpur, 1920 have surprisingly done well which can only be a good thing. The one stand out movie of this year so far is undoubtedly Jane Tu Ya Jane Na as far as Boxoffice is concerned.

  7. Comment by Ravi on 17 November 2008:

    Good that you did your test good Som dear, so time to enjoy now after all the hard work, right?

  8. Comment by Som on 17 November 2008:

    Yeah Ravi bhai,the test went really well and hopefully fetch me a very good score as well.I have few more exams in the coming months,so it’s exactly not over yet and I have to keep on working hard, motivating myself and not let the enthusisam die down soon.But I shall be active on NG from here on though may take small breaks when necessary.

  9. Comment by A C H I L L E S on 17 November 2008:

    Beld - I compared the top hits of the two years just BO wise … this year is lagging behind with the absence of one 85 crore grosser and another 60+ grosser …. this vacuum shud get fulfilled from the 3 potential hit movies Dostana, RNBDJ & Ghajini.

    As for quality, among the major grossers, only JA and JTYJN stands out … and RO (the other critical hits were small investment and small returns) … SIK, Race, GR are trash hits … Among the major grossers of 07 … quality wise CDI and TZP were good … while Partner, OSO, Welcome were trash. But 07 also had 50 crore grossers in Guru, BB and HB .. out of which Guru was a critical hit too. So if Dostana does 50 crore … RNBDJ 60+ and Ghajini around 85 … then 08 will eventually even out 07 in everyway (unless RNBDJ and Ghajini tuns out to be trash).

  10. Comment by Qalandar on 17 November 2008:

    If Yuvvraaj makes 50 crores mein apna (gravatar) badal doonga…

  11. Comment by jayshah on 17 November 2008:

    I’m getting the same feeling like all recent Ghai movies. A real thanda feel to the product. Who knows though. Salman is due is unpredictable big opener sooner or later…he usually springs a suprise…

  12. Comment by satyam on 17 November 2008:

    Salman though is unlikely to spring a surprise in this genre.. but yeah one never knows.. I think that where Ghai goes wrong in this genre is that he ultimately has a bit of an 80s soul inhabiting the Yashraj universe and the audience can instantly tell..

  13. Comment by Qalandar on 17 November 2008:

    Re: “…in this genre”: bhaiyya, in what genre does salman spring a surprise?

  14. Comment by ILG on 17 November 2008:

    Dont discount Salman tho this one is not going to be the one.
    Salman has been written off several times and has bounced back with surprising earners. He still connects with masses and were he more choosy, would have done better.

  15. Comment by satyam on 17 November 2008:

    well that’s true also.. he’s not had a big one in a while barring Partner.

    I think his problem is essentially a demographic one. In some ways he has the most loyal fan base (no base has forgiven more bad films than this guy’s with the exception of that other champ, Sanjay Dutt!). On the other hand that base is not as well represented in multiplex terms. And he isn’t an Akshay Kumar at this point to overcome that. Remember Salman became really low brow over time and alienated a number of viewers. So now he is less acceptable in more refined stuff and where he is more acceptable the films aren’t as welcome in multiplexes. It’s only the comedy that can bridge the divide. By the way his last two solid hits were Partner and MSK. Both Dhawan films. One had Govinda with Dhawan after a long time. The other had Akshay. Salman really hasn’t had much success in a long time. Unless one wants to include No Entry. Again MPKK did reasonably well.

  16. Comment by Qalandar on 17 November 2008:

    Yes, I had made the claim as far back as 2005 that the multiplex paradigm would hurt Salman the most, because his base would be getting priced out…at the same time he lacks the talent or the imagination to re-invent himself for newer cinematic audiences…

  17. Comment by satyam on 17 November 2008:

    Indeed I remember you said that..

  18. Comment by ILG on 17 November 2008:

    It is indeed sad that someone with a wide and a varied fan base is hurt by multiplex boom. But, yes Q Salman does not have the imagination and while he has some talent its not enough to overcome theobstacles. But theguy has tons of charisma. And people love him. They were showing older episodes of Saregama with Salamn and you could see everyone jsut adores him. Ismail Darbar,Jatin Lalit, Himmesh, Adesh etc.

  19. Comment by ILG on 17 November 2008:

    The success of his rather mediocre TV show just shows to go how he still has the ability to connect.

  20. Comment by Qalandar on 17 November 2008:

    That’s a fair point on his charisma ILG, although I would argue that the success of his TV show proves my point (if one accepts my assumption/claim that TV is today a more “populist” medium than cinema, and more accessible to people across different demographics)…

    [Aside: I actually enjoy Salman's appearances on TV shows way more than his roles in films; he actually has a zany sense of humor in the former.]

  21. Comment by Qalandar on 17 November 2008:

    ideaunique: I don’t think Ghajini will make that much more money than Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi, if indeed it makes any more money at all…

  22. Comment by satyam on 17 November 2008:

    Qalandar: The one thing Ghajini has going for it though is that it could roar in the North if it’s anything like Fanaa. The South could also be huge because they don’t have an action problem there (thinking of Hyderabad and Bangalore principally). And in Bombay Aamir’s prestige is even higher than it is anywhere else! So he could put together a ‘coalition’ for this one. Where you are right is that ordinarily a RNBDJ has a much better chance of getting to that total even with a mediocre product than Ghajini even with a far superior deal. But if any film could do it I think Ghajini could. This does not mean that I consider it completely safe as many do here. It’s hard to predict where this film will ultimately end up.

  23. Comment by abhishekr on 18 November 2008:

    Q bhai:Who is in your gravatar?

  24. Comment by Qalandar on 18 November 2008:

    abhishekr: that’s me!

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