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doodh ka doodh aur paani ka paani kar daala !

“The distribution theory is “used” to bring down certain films if and when people choose to and then is done away with for other films.”

true.

It is quite clear now that distribution theory is not working and probably hasn’t been for some time. Good riddance I say. Because I bet OSO, Welcome, Race and all were not meeting the below criteria of Komal, BOI or other trade analysts!

komal – “Super-Hit: If the returns on a film are much more than double the investment, it is termed a super-hit.”

Is SIK doing this? No – so why call it superhit?

What is happening is obvious. The distribution theory is “used” to bring down certain films if and when people choose to and then is done away with for other films. Dubious, inconsistent, unfair and downright plain wrong.

Of course absolute matters – the point is absolute should matter for everyone – not cherry picking!

som – thanks for full break out. Overall hardly a success “trade” wise so the theory is out the door for SIK, Race and other biggies. What is being used is absolute like rudresh is saying. So you can no longer call it “trade” anymore because no “trade” in their right mind would call a losing proposition superhit!

Just when everything was going right, with ROCK ON!! and A WEDNESDAY consolidating their status and 1920 trying to settle down, the bomb blasts in Delhi on Saturday evening threw a spanner. The unfortunate, dastardly attacks in the capital sent shivers across the nation. It has been noticed time and again that such unfortunate attacks hit film business hard. The fear factor keeps prospective ticket buyers away from plexes.

1920 had a decent start at Delhi and Mumbai specifically, but the blasts in Delhi on Saturday and Ganpati visarjan in Mumbai/Maharashtra on Sunday slowed its business at these two metros specifically. The opening weekend nett was approx. Rs. 3.10 crores and I am sure, it would’ve been more robust had the blasts not occurred.

But 1920 seems to be in comfort zone. Besides theatrical revenue, Bhatt and his partners hope to tap the international markets by dubbing the film in various foreign languages, which could open the doors for so many films that have a strong story to tell, but not strong face-value to attract the Mumbai-based Overseas distributors. Besides, Bhatt also has Satellite and Home Video rights.

Back to 1920’s theatrical business. Monday was at par with Friday and at places, better than Friday. Most films fall below the Friday level on Monday, but in this case, the collections were maintaining fine. The film is slowly and steadily inching past the ‘Average’ box-office status.

I am not surprised by the non-response to RU-BA-RU. The promotions should begin almost two months prior to release and should get more and more aggressive as the release date draws closer. But RU-BA-RU came without any hype whatsoever. The makers should’ve pushed the film hard, but the scant awareness only reflected in its business. It’s a fiasco!

The fate of THE LAST LEAR doesn’t surprise me. The film hit headlines days before its release… actually, THE LAST LEAR got a lot of mileage in the media. People were hoping that the film would open well due to the front-page importance in newspapers and prime time prominence on TV, but the opening was thanda. Released at a handful of cities, the film didn’t even fetch rave reviews, which normally comes as a booster for art house cinema. In fact, the ratings ranged from average to below average.

The theatrical business of THE LAST LEAR has been lukewarm, despite the presence of Amitabh Bachchan, Arjun Rampal and Preity Zinta in its cast. One of the reasons could be that India is yet to open up to English language films, starring desis and also helmed by desis. Besides, THE LAST LEAR, in my individualistic opinion, is too abstract. Expectedly, even the plexes wore a deserted look, shattering the myth that art house cinema always finds its supporters at plexes.

ROI = Profit/Budget = (profit/DP) * (DP/Budget)

1. First would tell how was cinema run.
2. How much table profit was made by producers.

ps: You can further break them.

Film viewing is an experience after which one feels inclined to pronounce a judgement. Whatever the kind of film, its genre, whether good, bad or ugly, people can’t refrain from declaring what they thought of a film. They’ll discuss the film with family, close friends or colleagues at their work-place. ‘Hit’, ‘flop’, ‘super-hit’ are terms usually used by cinegoers to describe a film they’ve seen.
But while these terms are quite loosely employed by the general public, words such as the above are actually very technical in nature with specific meanings. More often than not, when laymen employ the above terms to describe a film, they use them to describe their feelings about the film, about how they liked or disliked it.

The film trade, however, treats a film as a ‘hit’ or a ‘flop’ according to its earnings vis-à-vis its cost. Whereas personal judgements can be very subjective, money is the only tool to categorise films into hits, flops, semi-hits, disasters, super-hits etc.
A film is treated as a hit by film trade analysts only if it more than doubles the investment of the distributor. If the cost of a film to a distributor is not recovered after the film has completed its run, it is termed a flop. Not many are aware that the cost of a film to its distributor – and not to the producer – is compared with its earnings in the distributor’s circuit for arriving at the categorisation of films as hits, flops etc.

For the uninitiated, a producer is the one who makes the film by arranging for the finances, stars and technicians and their dates. He sells it to various distributors, one for each circuit or territory. The buyer, or distributor as he is called, has the right to release the film in only the territory for which he has acquired the distribution rights. Thus, for example, the person who buys a film for the Bombay circuit will release it in cinemas falling in the jurisdiction of Bombay city and suburbs, parts of Maharashtra (like Pune, Aurangabad, Malegaon etc.), Gujarat, Saurashtra and parts of Karnataka (like Hubli, Belgaum etc.). The circuits for the purposes of film business have nothing to do with state boundaries we know. For instance, although Central Province was the term used to describe today’s Madhya Pradesh in pre-Independence India, even today C.P.

Berar is the nomenclature used in the film industry to describe the territory comprising parts of Maharashtra (like Amravati, Akola etc.) and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (like Raipur, Jabalpur, Bhilai).
The price (MG or Minimum Guarantee) which the distributor pays for acquiring a film’s distribution rights, usually for 5, 7 or 10 years is the major chunk of his investment in the film. Since Bombay is the biggest territory, its price is considered the ‘ratio’ of the film. All other circuits are sold as percentages of the ratio. Thus, for instance, C.P. Berar fetches a price that’s 30 – 40% of Bombay’s price or, in other words, 30 – 40% of the ratio of a film. Rajasthan is 20 to 25% of the ratio. The other two components of the distributor’s investment, besides the MG price, are the cost of prints and publicity.

As against the old system of distribution in which the producer used to give the distributor quota prints alongwith the distribution rights, today the cost of prints is borne by the distributor. The publicity in his territory is also to be done by him. Thus, the cost to the distributor is the total of all the three aforesaid costs (MG royalty plus print cost plus publicity cost).

For example, the total investment of the Bombay distributor in the recently released Qayamat for Bombay was Rs. 2.75 crore. If the film would’ve done a business of Rs. 2.75 crore, it would have been termed an average fare. If it would not even have recovered its cost, it would have been termed a flop or, if the business fell far short of the investment of Rs. 2.75 crore, even a disaster. But if Devgan Software, the Bombay distributor, does a business of Rs. 5.5 crore, the film would be referred to as ‘A’ class or, in other words, a semi-hit. Business of more than Rs. 5.5 crore would entitle it to be referred to as a hit (‘A1’).

And if Qayamat goes on to touch the figure of Rs. 6.5 or 7.5 crore, it would be construed to be a super-hit (class ‘AA’). If it does more than even that, it would qualify to be a blockbuster, depending on how much is the final figure of business done. In reality, the film is expected to touch Rs. 3 to 3.25 crore, which would make it a commission earner. A film becomes a commission earner when it covers its cost plus 25% more than that. Twenty-five percent is the industry norm for calculating the distributor’s expenses for releasing a film. Between a commission earner and a semi-hit is the nomenclature ‘overflow film’. Such a film covers its cost as well as 25% commission and goes on to do more business.

Every rupee earned after the entire commission of the distributor is recovered, is to be shared with the producer, usually equally. That is to say, the distributor keeps 50 paise of every rupee earned after his commission is earned and gives the remaining 50 paise to the producer as his share of overflow. Hence, the term ‘overflow film’. When film industry trade papers predict the fate on the day of a film’s release, what they actually do is estimate the likely business of the film through its entire run of 5, 7 or 10 years and compare that with the price for which the said film was sold.

Rakesh Roshan’s forthcoming Koi…Mil Gaya has been sold at Rs. 3 crore per major territory. Which means, a distributor of a major circuit will have to invest about Rs. 3.50 to 3.75 crore in the Hrithik-Preity starrer, taking into account the cost of about 50 prints and likely publicity for the big-budget film. Only if it does a business of about Rs. 7.50 crore will it qualify to be termed a semi-hit. Further, if it is to be called a blockbuster, the Rakesh Roshan flick will have to do a business of at least Rs. 10 to 11 crore.
Interestingly, although the distributor’s revenues depend on whether or not the public likes a film, a producer can make his money on the day of release itself, if he has been able to pre-sell all the rights. Technically and theoretically, therefore, even if a film were to bomb on release, the producer would sit pretty with some crores or lakhs in his bank account because the risk is that of the distributors of the various territories. This is generally true in the case of top-line producers of big-budget star-cast films who have successful track records. For them, their productions are hits and super-hits or even blockbusters on the day of release itself. For example, although Subhash Ghai’s Yaadein was a flop in the distributors’ hands, the showman’s company, Mukta Arts, made a hefty profit in the disaster as the film was pre-sold to distributors across the world. But for the majority of the producers who can’t pre-sell their films, the risk is more theirs than that of their distributors who may not buy the film on MG royalty basis.
The other popular forms of distribution include the advance basis and the pure commission basis. Under the advance system of release, a distributor advances a pre-determined amount to the producer but if he can’t recover that amount from the theatres, the producer has to refund the shortfall after a fixed period, usually a year after release. Under the pure commission system of release, the distributor may advance nothing to the producer who would even give him the prints for releasing in the cinemas.

The distributor releases the film in the producer’s account and remits the shares, after deducting his commission (which may be 7.5%, 10% or 15%, depending on the arrangement between the producer and the distributor), to the producer.
So, next time, you use the words ‘hit’ and ‘flop’, be sure, you use them in the right context. If not, the better way to describe your opinion would be to say whether you liked a film, hated it, loved it or adored it.

SEPARATE BOX
Circuit: The area for which a distributor buys the distribution rights for a film for a period of (generally) 5 or 7 or 10 years.

Ratio: The price for which a film is sold for Bombay circuit. Prices for all other circuits are determined as a fixed percentage of the ratio. For example, Delhi-U.P. is usually 80 to 85% of the ratio. But in the case of action films, which have a bigger market in North India, Delhi-U.P. may be sold for 100% of the ratio.

Flop: If a film can’t even cover its investment by the distributor, it is termed a flop.

Average: If a film manages to simply recover its cost, it is an average fare.

Commission Earner: When a film recovers the investment and, over and above that, gets in revenues of 25% more, it is termed a commission earner. Thus, if the distributor’s total investment in a film is Rs. 2 crore, and it does a business of Rs. 2.50 crore, it is termed a commission earner. 25% of Rs. 2 crore is Rs. 50 lakh which is the amount of commission which belongs to the distributor to cover his expenses of releasing the film.

Overflow: When a film crosses the commission mark, the revenues thereafter are to be shared between the producer and distributor. The producer gets a share in the ‘overflow’ business, generally fifty-fifty. Such sharing makes the film an overflow film. Overflow films can be further categorised as under, depending on the quantum of overflow.

Semi-Hit: A film which does a business that is double the distributor’s investment in it, is termed a semi-hit. In such a case, the producer gets handsome overflow from the distributor.

Hit: If a film more than doubles its investment in the distributor’s hands, it is deemed to be a hit.

Super-Hit: If the returns on a film are much more than double the investment, it is termed a super-hit.

Blockbuster: Returns are almost triple the investment.

All the films are small budget apart from Rock On!! which is a medium budget affair. The Ramadan period has always seen small films trying to make a mark at the box office but without much luck but it’s been a totally different story this year with five successes and chances that likes of Welcome To Sajjanpur and Hulla could add to the list before the Eid releases Drona and Kidnap arrive.

Mumbai(minus Mumbai city):DP of 10 cr
Collections:14-15 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.8 cr
Loss:Approx.2 cr

Punjab+CI:5.30 cr
Collections:12 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.6.6 cr
Profit:Approx.1.3 cr

East Bengal:1.65 cr
Collections:2.50 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.40 cr
Loss:Apporx.0.25 cr

Cp Berar:2 cr
Collections:Approx.3.10 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.70 cr
Loss:Aprox.0.30 cr

Nizam:1.65 cr
Collections:Approx.3.50 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.90 cr
Profit:Approx.0.25 cr

Mysore:1.30 cr
Collections:2.80 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.55 cr
Profit:Approx.0.25 cr

Total distribution price from above circuits:21.9 cr
Total collections:Approx.39 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.21.5 cr

If we look out here, the distributors are hardly making any profit,at best breaking even.Had the distributor been one single person for every territories,then everything would have been evened out eventually i.e the profit making circuits out grossing the loss making ones.But it is not to be the case.So what criteria these trade people follow?Do they have different criteria and formulae for each film?How a SR giving a distributor share of close to 19 cr at distribution price of 17-18 cr is called as a Flop and a SIK almost doing exactly the same is a Super hit?The sword should be out for other biggies like Race,Welcome and OSO as well.Do these movies really qualify to be called as bonafide Super hits and Blockbusters?One thing I am sure,these 2X,3X or whatever X formulae are not being at play.

Misleading Results: In the absence of absolute data, the result may be infact genrally misleading. For example, the gross profit of two movies is 25%. Whereas the profit earned by one is just Rs. 5,000 and sales are Rs. 20,000 and profit earned by the other one is Rs. 10,00,000 and sales are Rs. 40,00,000. Even the profitability of the two movies are same but the magnitude of their business is quite different.

So main thing donot just focus on ratios whether it is the profitabilty ratios or the trending ratios

huh?

So if Punjab barely conjures up a profit, how can the other territories be anything but losing propositions.

Reasons for this debate
1) I do not give a cent to distribution theory
2) I am helping those who forever long have lived and died by this sword but seem to have forgotten their ways all of a sudden! Call it an exercise in deconstructing this ridiculous theory
3) In the end “trade” is calling a film that is probably “breaking even” a superhit and at the same time calling another film (Sarkar raj) a flop with the same “break even” result!

“But Nahta makes a point: “Some distributors who bought the film from Indian Films, to whom Vipul Shah had sold it, have posted losses. However, that’s nothing compared to the success that Singh is Kinng has seen.” Sources say that Ramesh Sippy Productions, which acquired the film’s distribution rights for the Mumbai territory for Rs 9.5 crore, has lost Rs 1.5 crore. “But Singh is Kinng,” adds Nahta, “is a clear winner.””

CP:
Selling Price = 2.00Cr
Nett = 3.00Cr (4 weeks, 4th week = 0.15Cr)
DS = 3.00*55% = 1.65Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make loss on SIK

Bengal:
Selling Price = 1.65Cr
Nett = 2.42Cr (4 weeks, 4th week = 0.06Cr)
DS = 2.42*55% = 1.33Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make loss on SIK

Punjab + CI
Selling Price = 5.30Cr
Nett = 11.31Cr
DS = 11.31*55% = 6.22Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make profit on SIK

From these 3 territories SIK has made a paultry profit of 0.25Cr for distributors. Maybe tad more taking into account week 5 onwards but hardly anything!

Mumbai (excluding city)
Selling Price = 10.00Cr
Nett = 24.66Cr (all of Mumbai territory)
DS = 24.66*55% = 13.56Cr
Conclusion : Distributors (all) are in profit but one must account for the selling price of city/suburbs which studio 18 hold…

Bucks Sans The Bang

Television`s filmy woes

BTW rks, OSO’s Mumbai circuit excluding Mumbai city and suburbs was reportedly sold for 9 cr, so in that case the distributor would have made 2-3 cr profit on the investment.Is this really good enough to be called as anything more than a Hit at max.?I certainly don’t think so

Total 18.95cr.

Remaining Mumbai City, Delhi/UP,Mysore, Nizam, Rajashthan, CP.

music

“Times Music’s newly launched label Junglee has bagged the music rights for Rs 135 million (Rs 13.5 crores), which includes Rs 35 million (Rs 3.5 crores) for promotion and marketing. “

first teaser of yuvraaj is looking good

All the same, SIK shows how even ’successful’ films can be ‘flops’ for distributors at times.

How much was SIK sold to Studio 18? Any press release?

I have seen 60, 62,65, 72,80?

60

62

80

@BOI 65

@TOI 71.3

BTW RKS, its very bad time for movies as Navdurga starts as also Pitrapaksh, while Ramzan is going on.

Bollywood crosses the Rs100 Cr barrier

Releasing soon: PE funds for movies

Vipul has moved on!

Have movie rights crossed the Rs100-crore mark?

Asin’s London Dreams sold for Rs 120 cr

Just like if we add the 13 cr music rights for SIK it becomes 78 cr and so on..

RNBDJ will be following a CDI kind of release strategy and try to emulate similar success …so the onus is on Ghajni to break SIK’s opening and be the biggest grosser of 08.

Of cource OSO is a bigger winner than SIK coz it managed to trend well even after a historic record breaking opening – where the underperformance of SIK actually is.

Btw, this again shows the amount of high revenues generated by the biggies outside the theatrical run – OSO had 36 crores revenue from music/satellite/DVD rights … and SIK got 46 crores for the same!

ILG – i think u has got the exact answer that u had asked so many times on the economics of OSO and why is is a Blockbuster inspite of its high price.

Jay – Lets not forget that around 35 crores will be rcovered by ghajni from other music/satellite/vdv rights .. around 55 crores wud be needed revenue from worldwide theatrical run which is not that a big task … provided it does well at overseas … i think 60-62 crores wud be enough to get a Hit tag for ghajni … and if it opens big and trends well then no reason why it cant go beyond D2/OSO’s 85 crores hauls.

PS – The only problem with BOI’s report is that they have misquoted as Kites being sold … but the 120 crores deal has actually fallen through (much like JA’s 90 crores deal which might again be a boon for a movie … who knows!)

The premiere of The Last Lear in Mumbai was cancelled after MNS activists attacked the cinema hall where it was to be screened. However, the MNS called off its agitation on Thursday after the Bachchans tendered an apology.

do these figures indicate the distributor’s share ?”

Manoj:In case of OSO,it could be the total revenue Eros which brought the distribution right from Red Chillies earned from all sources.Same thing applies to SIK as well but the only difference is Studio 18 the original distributor has sold the distribution right to different sub-distributors in each circuits in India instead of releasing the film by themselves,hence the 41 cr share from theatrical collections in India will be that of the sub-distributors who are the last men standing in the chain not studio 18.The revenue from Overseas and other rights as BOI mentioned will go straight to Studio 18 and then you can add the revenue Studio 18 might have got by selling the distribution right in India to the sub distributors in each circuit.

That is as ridiculous as it gets and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of basic economics. A 75 crore movie is a huge grosser and a big revenue collector ( wouldnt say ‘earner’). But thats about it. When one gets to the nitty gritty of money making, it still has to play by the established ruled and criteria. Its more an indictment of the greed and short sightedness of the makers than the movie.
Because given the makret capacity, there is only so much that a movie with a certain degree of acceptance can make.
Trending theory in box office terms is as close to an absolute as one can get. One can dismiss it but only at the peril of inviting derision and riducle. And rightly so.

do these figures indicate the distributor’s share ?

Glad to see it seems like Ghajini will be the first biggie to suffer at the hands of profit-loss theory!

On Sunday business was 50% lower than it should be it in Delhi/NCR while other metroes showed 15-20% lower business. Exhibitors expect business to be affected for 3-4 weeks while the horrifying bomb blasts are still fresh in the memory of moviegoers.

Ru Ba Ru opened with collections in the 5-10% range.

Velocity
1920: 16,900; 24,100; 46,300.
A Wednesday [2nd wknd]: 14,200; 17,400; 46,500.
Rock On!! [3rd wknd]: 4,450; 12,900; 14,500.

Gourav Mahajan, India

The recent performance of “The Dark Knight” is a pretty good example of how a film opening to huge numbers, record breaking numbers in the opening weekend can trend well too. It fell by little over 50% in the 2nd week which is acceptable considering the big release but then onwards the film has been rock steady, falling less than 40% on an average in the subsequent weeks which goes on to prove the word of mouth is good and has worked for it. I have also given the example of “Welcome”, how it managed to hold on well and added few crore even after doubling it’s opening week gross unlike “Race” despite it doing almost the same in the opening week. Even D2, the same genre as “Race” managed to show remarkable trending after a huge opening. Hence the very point of big openers not showing good trending is defeated here. Of course no one expects the big openers to trend like a “Taare Zameen Par” or a “Lage Raho Munna Bhai” but at least they can come close to doubling their initials and believe me it’s not a big ask, this should be the minimum benchmark. In the current scenario if a movie like “Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi” opens close to 50 cr but fails to out gross a “Dhoom2” or an “Om Shanti Om”, it will be an Under performer in my book even if the end gross might be a big one and the trade might call it as a super hit or a Blockbuster or whatever. And the word Under perfomer has nothing to do with Trade verdicts, in my book it will just indicate the film fell short of what it could have ideally made. Some way or the other the film did not manage to live up to the expectation of the paying public. To me the trust and the acceptability of the audience matter the most more than anything else and that can’t simply be valued in monetary or trade terms. That is all what I can say, closing my case….

BOI : super hit
Abid: superhit
Taran: Clean Hit
Satyam: superhit
rudresh: superhit
Gabber: superhit
rks: superhit
sv:blockbuster
sunil:blockbuster
hardik: superhit
Jogindar: superhit

Media: Blockbuster

others are ignored

Baat Pate ki hai. Koi to sun le bhai!

Made my night sv.

so even when it has not made the required criteria for getting superhit

Sarkar Raj is not a flop.I did not call it a flop.I called it Above average.Some poeple like achilles were bent on calling it a flop and went bonkers.But after the truth emerged later,they kept quiet.
Believe it or not SR is a bigger success than Race.
SR grossed higher than race abroad.
Only thing is SR trending is bad .

Why not? So your telling me if a film is sold for 40Cr now and makes a huge number like 80CR (it sounds massive right ) but it breaks even for distributors it should be called a HIT under “trade” parameters??????

Like I said trade is trade. They assess profitability and they should stick to it. Not draw up a different set of criteria for Sarkar Raj and another one for Singh is Kinng.

JTYJN has trended better than TZP.
So TZP is just a hit

JA has trended better than LRM.
JA is a bigger hit than LRM.”

look to be someone’s personal opinion and ya the profit of the movie does not depend on its gross a jtyjan is certainly more profitable than ja or sik

So sv – the film made 1Cr profit so its a HIT! And SR was basically break even – so its a FLOP! Right again I stress there is NO LOGIC here.

I have NEVER made such claims. rudresh your not following my comments at all.

Race did not double its initial – it still got a HIT by me.

Again I refer you to my Ghajini example up top. It takes into account a film that opens decently but trends well, or a film that opens superbly but does not trend aswell. In the end both are hits.

Thats all.

so basically u want to go by that model so why to cry for distributor profit

The day trending theory followers uses a little more logic one will get the answer to bigger questions.

Trending was earlier correctly used to find the merit of a fil. It was later hijacked to descibe good hit or bad hit. Terms like technical hit were coined after the failure of KANK and people (read Dion) started finding similar trends in other films which were never as rejected as KANK. Not even Saawariya.

brilliantly said

SIK is sold for no less than 65Cr. I can guesstimate its distribution price for all-India to be at least 30Cr here.

Now at 30Cr, for distributors to make any money at all-India level, the film must at least make 60Cr at the box office. Because deals are brokered at 55-45, 50-50 what not. Now at 60Cr nett gross, the distributor share cannot be that much more or less than 30Cr.

So a film that has hardly made a rupee for distributors (at all-India level) on their investment is declared a HIT.

Now you ask for logic – this is the logic you want!

In fact Sarkar Raaj did not make a rupee for distributors at all-India level at 34Cr nett, because it’s DP was 17Cr. However, this film is called a FLOP.

So when things like this are staring one straight in the face – I find it rather funny that “trending theory” is being picked apart!

And again I have displayed my logic up top. There is nothing much more to add from my side.

I do not need to “sell this” any further. Because I do not see at all a “method” or “approach” available (and visibly so) that is more “transparent” or “clearly shown” by any-one – this is pure fact…tell me where this is one trade analyst displaying method, the “criteria” and the results and is CONSISTENT – then we can talk about the pro’s and con’s of box office classifications.

JTYJN has trended better than OSO.
So JTYJN is a blockbuster while OSO is just a hit.

JTYJN has trended better than TZP.
So TZP is just a hit

JA has trended better than LRM.
JA is a bigger hit than LRM.

Jay, It has more to do with lack of transparency on the part of the trade guys and BO sites and inconsistency in everything they do.

how it can be have we forgot the earlier classification of declaring a movie hit or flop

jay: indian bo is not transparent at all simple as that

No one can explain why SIK is not a blockbuster after Netting 76 Cr in 6 weeks. Ha!

Akshay has given 6 blockbusters in last 25 months. A record since last 25 years.

This is clearly a ludicrous debate if one side cannot even keep up there side of the bargain!

Take it as a tit for tat logic.

SIK is a blockbuster! (I have changed by stance from calling it a mere superhit now) just to point out that I too can be adament and bullheaded.

i am not counting out any week specification

weeks numbers are just there to indicate falls isn’t it , treding has hardly anything to do with weeks a movie has to atleast do more than double of its intital( opening week) to atleast be accepted

as i told most of the high grossing indeed trended well
—-
“one more thing why these so highly accepted movies also stop less than what some one had earned just in aweek.If they are such a great quality product ,why did not they had become the highest grosser.The answer of this question in reverse apply to high grossers also.”

intially they don’t flood the market with print i guess their prints is increased by makers after judging their wom , u just can’t apply the same logic which u can do for any other masala movies

But a simple thing is that if movie has earned 73 cr+ in 5 week and 3o+ in subsequent week is no way can be called as underperformer(word sound even lower than semihit status)

quality product will have his leg , the condition which u are telling is of big movies who floods the market with print but again the criteria even for them i to be accepted is they should atleast do more than double of their opening

may be but it still made 63 on the time when other makers don’t even release their movie as it is not considered beneficial to the market this clearly showed the movie had a good wom

thsi apply for high grossing films mostly as they had already made the money which shows that people had accepted it.
—-
one more thing why these so highly accepted movies also stop less than what some one had earned just in aweek.If they are such a great quality product ,why did not they had become the highest grosser.The answer of this question in reverse apply to high grossers also.

agree there som and once again it proves the importance of trending u can’t ignore that

and ya it is technically hit according to some , it made most of its money from the first week and didn’t trended well

if trending is applicable to small movies only many small movies would indeed have reached 50-60 cr

only those small movie reach there those who have a particular brandname or star associated with them and have a trimendous wom

Rockstar: Just an indication after knowing what was the 1st weekend total.For example Race did 22 cr in the 1st weekend, first week was 35 cr which meant the film took a fall close to 50% in the weekdays which is significant IMO.Looking at what happened in the weekdays,You can assume the film will take a fall in the 2nd week as the WOM is particularly not that strong that is what exactly happened with Race which took a fall close to 58% in the 2nd week.In case of movies like Saawariya and JBJ, because the rejection is so massive they just fade away as soon as the weekend is over.Movies like KANK and Mp even SR to some extent have a section of audience going for it, so the average fall may not be as huge as movies like a JBJ or Saawariya but is pretty significant i.e falling close to 60% on an average every week.

this notion of making quick money are applied by only those who are not sure about the product and want to earn max money from the first week itself if the movie has hype

“its not jodha akbar which got no competition for 6 weeks”

but how u r getting the picture from first weekend

only from how much the film has done on his whole run or in other words how it has trended

its not jodha akbar which got no competition from 6 month and did well just by making money on weekends mostly

sik faced a heavy competition from 2nd week itself ( 2 films released along with it on 15th together made 35 cr on week 2), also on its rum it had movies like phoonk, bah , rock on , wedneday etc

but ya trending matter it will be foolish to say it don’t it shows the movie is accepted or not

You ask for logic – where is the logic in that?”

it was not a flop it was a propaganda and certain people where bluntly exposed in that

“But I don’t think SIK would have got same amount (as of today), had it been released with less number of prints. So in retrospect I think SIK producers did correct thing for themselves.”

Exactly rks. It is a fantasy to suggest if SIK released on 750 cinemas instead of 1,000 it would have “trended” supremely better to get to 75Cr!

What logic. It does not happen to films that carry average WOM. It can only happen with films carrying strong WOM!

You ask for logic – where is the logic in that?

In a word, the “wider” the release or the bigger the opening, the more the trending rate required for a hit falls. Because I do release a film releasing on 2,000 prints cannot trend like one releasing on 400 prints. However, the film still needs to trend!

The best way to explain is lets say the Market potential of Ghajini is 50Cr.

1) If Ghajini opens 30Cr (60% occupancy) it suggests the opening has not lived up to expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show strong trending. It must reach around 70Cr – trending off 43% each week

2) If Ghajini opens 35Cr (70% occupancy) it suggests the opening was very good and the film lived upto expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show good trending. It must reach 70Cr – trending of 50% each week

3) If Ghajini opens 40Cr (80% occupancy) it suggests the opening was excellent and the film surpassed expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show decent trending. it must reach 70Cr – trending of 57% each week

4) Now the final scenario is if Ghajini just blows it away in week one and opens 45Cr (90% occupancy). Here I would be stricter on the performance. The film must make 75Cr – which still means trending of 60% each week

You can see here that the “trending %” required for a hit is relaxed – in a sense the model “allows” for the fact that bigger releases are likely to trend less fortunately.

With SIK I have taken scenario 3). The film has opened exceptionally well and needs to trend at roughly 57-59% each week. This takes into account opposition it has faced aswell but at the same time, the film too is more audience friendly then what many think Ghajini will be.

In scenarios 1-3 one can read a lot into acceptance of the film.

Scenario 1) suggests the film has worked more on WOM
Scenario 2) suggests the film has worked on WOM and hype
Scenario 3) suggests the film has worked more on hype

All three score a hit – to show it is possible for me to give the same verdict despite different way of doing business. Scenario 2) however is the most feasible one IMO or the best one because it incorporates both star power/hype and general acceptance of the movie over a period of time.

All 3 scenarios earn the HIT tag therefore for different reasons.

But lets see what kind of film Ghajini is before passing judgement on how I will approach its verdict.

Also in the past I have given hits under

Scenario 1) – Namastey London, Jodha Akbar
Scenario 2) – Tara Rum Pum, Bhagam Bhag, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
Scenario 3) – Race

Of course the vast majority of “clean hits” – films like Metro, Fanaa, LRM, Krrish, D2, OSO, Partner, TZP, CDI, JTYJN, Welcome, RDB etc simply do one think consistently – they trend well period! They open well and sustain strongly for at least 2 weeks at the box office which should be the bare minimum expected of any film.

[This is my last post on this matter - I've layed out my POV plenty of times, even I am getting bored of hearing my own voice on this matter!]

As I have said the makers have been dropping prints in a large number (even when the exhibitors have not been demanding it), as they have achieved their target for the week, so no use paying rentals.

For me as I have always said, a movie has to get to certain total, one can get it the twenty20 way or the Test match way. There are no brownie points for getting it the test match way as the distributor ends up paying more theatre rentals, thereby reducing his/her profits.

We the firm believer in the trending theory will stick to it. If RNBDJ or Ghajni makes anything less than OSO’s end gross(Quoting BOI’s gross) after opening close to 50 cr as Gabber suggested,They will be considered as some sort of under performers no two ways about it.I guess the recent performance of The Dark Knight perfectly suggests how a movie despite opening to huge numbers can trend well too.

What if SIK makers had gone for some less prints and 35 cr then, 18, 10…. so the same movie would have been called a hit at the asme end total of 75-76 cr by trending? Sorry I find it stupid logic.

both opened at 35 Cr
both had the similar genre though there was a big difference as welcome had more crowd pleasing genre and more repeatability factor.

But Race and SIK cannot be compared. Films like SIK that breaks opening week collections by a big margin (9 Cr or 25% more over 35 Cr openings), it becomes a significant difference. Also it then goes on to become amongst the top 3 grossers of recent times (after OSO and D2), assuming that it ends at 77 Cr.

Dion, I think opening week issue is a big issue esp if the end gross is impressive that cannot be overlooked. Most probable all big films like Dostana, Wanted, Golmaal Returns, RNBDJ, Ghajini will open big to varying degree.

If Ghajini opens at 50 Cr and does not double its opening but still manages to get 85 Cr,
If Dostana opens at 37 Cr and reached 60 Cr
If RNBDJ opens at 50 Cr and reaches 85 Cr
If Golmaal opens at 35 Cr and reaches 60 Cr
If Kites opens at 55 Cr and reaches 90 Cr

These are all huge successes like SIK. And these are not a mere ‘if’ cases, because chances of it being happenning is more realistic now.

So my suggestion to satyam, rks, jay, rudresh, Dion, Ach is to suggest realistic measures. We can seek help from experts like Tango, Jongindar in this regard.

I think a comparison between two similar sort of films Race and Welcome in terms of their release(cinema count) and the opening week gross(almost the same 35 cr) will serve the purpose.On one hand when Welcome managed to add few more crore after doubling it’s initial, Race fell short by 8-9 cr from doubling the first week gross.This is what I believe is due to the fact Welcome lived up to the expectation of the public more than anything else unlike Race.A good WOM worked in favor of Welcome..

This is the last comment from me on this trending theory, not gonna extend the argument further.

The issue with using trending theory alone is that while one knows how much %drop in subsequent weeks is good, one does not know how much of opening nett is good for a movie. I had even suggested to come up with a more practical way to include Opening effect into trending theory. This will make the analysis fool proof. It can be done. Maybe he can involve people like Dion as well.

This is the crux of the issue. when a film grosses record breaking collection in week 1, then benchmarking it with other films in terms of trending raises the bar for this film just because it opened extraordinarily well. Opening of 35 Cr when release with 500 less prints could have been called very well for SIK (90-100% collection) but with 44 Cr opening, it beat that figure by 9 Cr in week 1.
Then in week 2 it grossed 18 Cr. If it had opened at 35 Cr, it would have been called a good trending as it would have dropped by 50%.
So till week 2, SIK would have been called a great success based on trending alone.

But one should be more happy that it grossed 44+18 = 62 Cr in 2 weeks than 35+18=53 Cr in 2 weeks.

Subsequently except for week 3, SIK would have trended by 50%. A good success in all regards if you consider only trending theory. Here I am not even considering that week 2 would have grossed more if SIK had opened with limited prints and grossed 35 Cr.

week 1 – 44 Cr
week 2 – 22 Cr (50 % drop)
week 3 – 11 Cr (50% drop)
week 4 – 6 Cr (45% drop)

total = 83 Cr in 4 weeks.

which film has done this before? This way for a film that open at 44 Cr needs to make 90 Cr to be called a good hit. Now not all films will break box office record of total nett. Does this mean that all good openers have underperformed in BO?

rks, everyone in this thread is trying to further his point. I am still to get a reply to most of the questions i posted above on the reason to call any movie an under performer based on trending all the time.

While trending is accpted by all including me to judge the merit of a film, I think one should also realise that it creates a huge disadvantage for a big opener as it indirectly demands it to create a BO record breaking total gross as I have already pointed to in my example above. I also feel that it is a simple fact but is kept in the closet for all reasons which is dubious.

Moreover furthering the point happens when you are reasonable in your analysis. Here the points were simply repeated without further insights or reasoning. In other words it is called beating around the bush.

My question on opening of a film comes under attack naturally due to SIK but I feel it is a genuine issue and when someone blindfoldedly fails to understand, in my book either he is unable to understand (which is not the case here) or does not wants to. If I find the latter then my reference to his as being biased or being like a fan was made to ascertain this.

Moreover, once Dion asked to use his name, I accepted it. But calling you for help all the time needs to have a relook as during blogging, these instances of warm exchanges are cyclical and as long as people adjust themselves on their own, I feel over-interference or calling for it reduces the fun.

I agree on your comments between Ach and I.

This is normally used to put down the other commentator. But Dion has genuine grievance because he is not furthering his point on SRK but rather on trending. I don’t see a point of using this after he objected.

Most of the comments by Gabber and Ach towards each other are bordering on personal.

I would have closed the thread but this is a weekly thread so I am leaving this open. But I will not hesitate to delete the whole comment(s) which is/are objectional after this warning.

they earlier did the same with dhoom posters this time around are very funny to

I loved the titles and think that these spoofs will be fun.

‘u can continue with ur inane insinuations if u feel it can make ur case any stronger.’

Boss, Jab khud par yakeen ho aur baajoo (Akshay film’s financial arm due to heavy grosses and opening) mein dum ho to ladne mein mazaa aataa hai. Akki fans love all kind of entertainment. They are not biased or phoney. All hail the King!

Anyways, as for media crap here is the latest example .. there have been more than a handful of the same if one does a simple search:

http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....-festival/

PS – Its too much to make a blind fan see any logic or reason … i give up! u can continue with ur inane insinuations if u feel it can make ur case any stronger.

Achilles, I think the threads are looosening for your kites.

And the gross is hardly impressive considering the record distribution prices … no help here too.

Anyways, NG has endured worse than this … fans have called JA a Blockbuster, Race a blockbuster, now SIK … wont be surprised is an ardent RGV fan starts claiming Phoonk is a Blockbuster too … hyperboles from fans are always excused (and essential too for the sheer fun of it!

week 1 – 44 Cr
week 2 – 22 Cr (50 % drop)
week 3 – 11 Cr (50% drop)
week 4 – 6 Cr (45% drop)

total = 83 Cr in 4 weeks.

which film has done this before? This way for a film that open at 44 Cr needs to make 90 Cr to be called a good hit.

Am I missing something here?

Also agree with rudresh when he argues that benchamarking the nett of a film with a salf-assumed figure (100 Cr) is illogical. By the trending theory, the only way SIK could have been called a good hit if it had crossed 90 Cr (double of 44 Cr + few more crores) which no other film has done so far. So why one use a stick for some films and carrot for others?

Blockbuster deals like D2 and OSO wud still had got to 85-90 crores range in today’s money even with a 50 crore opening … they had that pull … SIK is not the Blockbuster deal that was being promised by media and fans … Taran calls it Hit, Nahata says distributers are running losses … its not a question about getting 100 crores … But a Blockbuster with a 44 crore opening cant overtake D2/OSO total … thats an underperformance.

And if was not an underperformance, then some of us wud not be soo eager to defend it.

SIK has turned out to be just another Hit of this year much like JA and Race.

SR falls in much lower category than any of the above movies … but like Race and SIK, it has also run into losses for certain sub-distributers … Dion mentioned it in that context.

As i have said before, among the hits, Jaane Tu is the only Blockbuster this year … Rock On is the superhit … rest all are just Hits be it JA, Race, SIK, Jannat or a Phoonk.

Among audience reception its Jaane Tu, Rock On (the order may get reversed) and then JA … rest are more or less week 1 movies profited due to clever marketing, hype and large no of prints.

Gabber, I am “DIONYSIAC”,stop referring as SRK fan.Have I ever referred you as an Akshay fan?Learn some civility, will be good for you.

rks:It would be better if member starts referring other members as their screen name not like the fans of certain stars.

that’s it….had JTYJN opened in 1000+ theatres, would it have trended so well. No. So????

JA is a good and a hit film.

Manoj, whose profit?
Vipul and Akshay as producer, studio 18 as distributors, Sajid Nadiadwala as sub distributor of Punjab, subdistributors of most territories made handsome profits.

JA is not even in top 3 now.

JTYJN, Rock On and SIK are on top followed by Race and/or JA.

Esp after the bumper opening of Mangal Pandey that too was historical and had all the above factors playing in, I had expected it to open well.
So while the film, Hrithik as actor and Aish as star (Overseas collections) succeeded, there were many questions raised on Hrithik’s pull, though genre disadvantage could be taken as a valid point.

No one else (except some die-hard HR fanslike me ) expected it to be a hit nor did any one(including all trade analysts) expect it to open well .
considering the bans in the initial weeks plus the multiplex issues in first week,it was a rather decent opening week and the merit of the movie and good-wishes of all fans resulted in its huge success.

So Ach, you can never become a fan boy like me. Happy hate boy to you once again!

i dont think anyone criticized her performance as well.

Agree with each and every word!

“Btw, regarding predictions of some – lets not forget who predicted a Flop in JA and hits in Tashan, SR, LS 2050, SIK etc!”

add drona to the list too ….

LOL lets refresh some forgotten memories

“Comment by Nitesh on 6 February 2008:

Hrithik will fail the test while Aish will steal the show.”

Link – http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....on-thread/

Now lets see how far reality is from the predictive philantrophist:

1. JA opens at only 25 crores.
2. Total 63 crores.
3. BO status – Hit to Superhit.
4. Critical review – Its the best reviewed Hit of 08 after Rock On!!
5. Hrithik’s act was much more universally praised by critics than any other lead actor any any biggies or hit movie of this year. Sadly Ash recieved the criticisms from a few.

Nitesh – dont ask to dig into ur ‘lovesign prediction’ .. u will further embarrass urself!

‘The Akshay-Katrina starrer has so far netted a huge 72.70 crores in just four weeks from India. SINGH IS KINNG is nearing a super- hit status in India. The film is already a super success in the Overseas, grossing £1,306,736 from UK and $1,907,733 from US.’

nearing a superhit = superhit

I am not a hate boy dear!

dude, you are cutting the circle.
But let’s agree to hail King Kumar!

Btw, regarding predictions of some – lets not forget who predicted a Flop in JA and hits in Tashan, SR, LS 2050, SIK etc!

Bye Bye!

After watching it I did not expect it to last this long, because whatever Welcome was comparatively a better movie, so indeed I am more than satisfied by its performance of getting to mid 70s.