Boxoffice Thread for the week 12/09/2008-18/09/2008

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Weekly Box office and Reviews thread (11th Sept – 17 Sept)

There Are 226 Responses So Far. »

Dionysiac 11 September 2008
07:03:15 pm

A Wednesday: Surprise box office winner

Dionysiac 12 September 2008
11:51:51 am

BOC

Mumbai: Vikram Bhatt directed horror flick 1920 starring Rajneesh Duggal and Adah Sharma has taken a better opening than The Last Lear starring Amitabh Bachchan, Arjun Rampal, Preity Zinta, Shefali Shah and Divya Dutta.

1920’s occupancy for morning and afternoon shows at multiplexes on Friday rangeed from 30- 50 percent and The Last Lear’s was marginally below this.

Some of the factors that seem be working in 1920’s favour are that The Last Lear is an English language film, so this fact makes it a niche movie. Also recently the curiosity level in horror genre movies has gone up, thanks to the Phoonk campaign.

Other release Ru Ba Ru starring Randeep Hooda and Shahana Goswami is nothing worth talking about. Despite an offer from distributors for a ‘one on one free ticket’ for Rubaru in any multiplex in Bombay city, the movie has not taken an opening worth a mention.

Other movies released this Friday are Journey to the Center of the Earth, Mamma Mia and Righteous Kill. From the previous weeks releases Rock On is expected to do well over this weekend as well, and to a certain extent even Bachna Ae Haseeno.

rks 12 September 2008
03:16:09 pm

Economic Times Weekly BO

Dionysiac 12 September 2008
09:04:54 pm

Rock On!! Has A Fantastic Second Week

Rock On!! has had a fantastic second week at the box office and according to collections available as yet it seems to have had an 8 crore+ second week adding to the 9.50 crore it grossed in the first week.

The business is mainly limited to multiplexes in big cities but it is more than good enough for the film.

Dionysiac 12 September 2008
09:27:43 pm

Weekly collections on INDIAFM

Dionysiac 12 September 2008
10:13:19 pm

TOP 5

B.O. Update: ‘1920′ starts better, ‘Last Lear’-'Rubaru’ poor

Dionysiac 12 September 2008
10:32:18 pm

Rock On has sustained and how!Delhi circuit has been phenomenal,2nd week will be bigger than 1st week for sure.Considering no big films releasing in the upcoming weeks, I expect it to do at least 30 cr.

Achilles 13 September 2008
12:40:52 am

Dion – Rock On is going to a revelation to how movies can trend when its accepted whole-heartedly by its target audience … Almost 10 crores in week 1 and now 8+ crores in week 2! 18 crores in two weeks and still going strong … it should cross 30 crores.

Of all the success stories of Aug – SIK underperformed after its big bang opening and could have done much more, BeH ended up a semi-hit, Phoonk reached Hit status but its essentialy a one wek movie.

But Rock On has surpassed evry expectations and is turning out to the most comprehensive hit of 2008 after JTYJN.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
12:41:24 am

BOI’s report

1920 opens to an average response of around 50% but it is better than most would have expected and should do decent business over the weekend and should emerge an earning fare in the major circuits.

Ru Ba Ru is very poor with a 10-15% start, it has little chance at the box office as reports are very dull.

The Last Lear is poor as it opened to a 15-20% response, it will struggle to make an impact at the box office.

A Wednesday had a good week with nett collection of 3.30 crore in week one. The second weekend should be good. The film is a success at the box office.

Hijack is poor with a 2 crore nett first week. FLOP

Tahaan is poor with 35 lakhs in week one. FLOP

Rock On is rock steady at multiplexes. The second week has grossed an excellent 8 crore taking its total to 17.50 crore in two weeks. It is a Super Hit in Mumbai and Mysore.

Bachna Ae Haseeno is still decent in Mumbai and Delhi. In its fourth week it has grossed around 1.50 crore taking its total to 36.50 crore in four weeks. SEMI HIT

Singh Is Kinng adds 1.50 crore in week five to take its total 74.25 crore. SUPERHIT

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
01:15:26 am

Totally Achilles! All these claims of movies opening on the lower side tend to trend well are ridiculous if these movies don’t enjoy good WOM at the first place! How did Phoonk trend in comparison to Rock On when both had a limited multiplex release?The fact is when a movie gets acceptance from people,it trends well no matter what some people try to believe.

Tango 13 September 2008
01:48:36 am

Dionysiac, when its audience rejection its like a Tashan or a Jhoom Barbar Jhoom or even a KANK. But with an oversaturated release there is bound to be a 55-60 % fall in week 2. Its normal. The makers too after going for the max in week 1, reduce prints on their own accord in week 2.

In case of SIK its all the more irrelevant because the film has added almost 31 crores after the first week. If the makers had not gone on reducing the prints every week, maybe you would have seen 77-78 cr by now.

rudresh 13 September 2008
01:54:16 am

One more point tango,selective movie release,accepted by selective audiance becomes the phinomial movie where as movie performing extra ordinary in big belt, quite good in small centers(where footfalls are not converted into the rupees in same proportion) is not even HIT.strange naa that is the value of money and importance of belonging to certain class and that also in certain selective big cities

Gabber 13 September 2008
01:58:35 am

‘Singh Is Kinng adds 1.50 crore in week five to take its total 74.25 crore. SUPERHIT’

So 75 Cr is set to be crossed. The biggest grosser of the year by a big margin, SIK is as per my expectation and prediction and far beyond the expectation of those who are now calling it an underperformer. Even after week 1, people on NG were claiming that it will collapse at 60 Cr. I wonder where are they now?

I however do agree that compared to the record breaking and the euphoria that SIK generated in week1, the end collection should have been 80+ Cr. In that respect, it could be a disappointment for some.

But I read SIK as the biggest success of Akshay as he proved himself one of the biggest forces of Box Office in Hindi Film Industry now. With the Universal acclaim for his act in otherwise ridiculed Tashan, he achieved what none of the stars have achieved since last few years – to get tremendous acclaim and tower over the otherwise uninteresting film.

Yes, Aamir in MP, Hrithik in MPKDH and SRK in Don & KANK did get praise but those were not as overwhelming as what Akki got for Tashan.

So Tashan’s critical acclaim + SIK’s superhit status has already made 2008 another successful year for Akshay.

For me the films that can overshadow SIK’s gross are RNBDJ, and Ghajini.

Tango 13 September 2008
02:01:44 am

Well said Rudresh.

With the corporates coming in this is how it’ll work. They will come in throw the prints and make a quick profit and disappear in 5-6 weeks, concentrating on their next.

Also, with the multiplex owners becoming more bossy, they will just throw out movies in 2-3 weeks, if they do nor perform as they have better options as the weeks go by.

Gabber 13 September 2008
02:06:18 am

well said Tango.

I think Ghajini will go the same way but RNBDJ will see a conventional release.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
02:40:21 am

Why is the trending theory so difficult to understand? KANK took a 60% fall in the 2nd week? Was that normal taking into consideration the big release it had at that point of time? How many of you really believe it was normal and not because of the rejection from the audience? How did Krrish trend in comparison to KANK when both had similar sort of release and the first week gross were almost in the same range? How did JA trend in comparison to Don despite getting a bigger release than Don? Can we really think Don and JA in the same breath? Take another example of Welcome and Race or even D2, three of them opened close to 35 cr on a wide release but how did Race trend in comparison to the other two? What do these things indicate? Why did Race fall by 58% in the 2nd week as contrary to 35% and 38% for D2 and Welcome respectively? Does not that indicate Race took a fall because it was not liked by the audience at the first place more than anything else?

Tango 13 September 2008
02:55:57 am

Gabber- “the end collection should have been 80+ Cr”

But why for SIK. I ahve been saying from week 1 that it will be at worse 70 cr and at best 80 cr and more down the middle.

The other thing is it has had 3 hits after its release. Thre movies that have accounted for almost 60 cr after it, apart from all other releases that may well account for 70 cr in total.

So what else is left to prove.

Achilles 13 September 2008
03:48:45 am

LOL … its always amusing to read the rantings of fans … an acor getting praise for his acting in a Flop film is nothing to scream about – Aamir acted well in lot of flop movies including AAA, Akele Hum Akele Tum, etc …. SRK in swades, Hrithik in Fiza, or abhishek in Yuva … suddenly akshay’s act in Tashan becomes the critical acclaim to talk about!

The same guy who predicted 100 crores suddenly finds SIK above his expectations at 75 crores

Akshay has had a good year in 08 … but nothing like 07 … a flop and a superhit to his name will keep him buoyant till his releases next year.

Achilles 13 September 2008
03:52:52 am

Dion – well said … a Welcome opening at 35 crores reaches 76 crores … a SIK opens at 43-44 crores and also ends with 76 crores … surely the both cases are not same and SIK leaves much more to desire.

Agree with your analogy on KANK and SIK … both are kind of technical hits rather than being liked and accepted by the audience.

Gabber 13 September 2008
05:33:10 am

‘The same guy who predicted 100 crores ‘

I had predicted 80 Cr for SIK and am happy for its 75 Cr mark.

On 100 cr, my prediction was only for Ghajini and then for RNBDJ.

‘ suddenly akshay’s act in Tashan becomes the critical acclaim to talk about!’

’suddenly’ – hahahaha
dude read any review on Tashan. His act got loads of critical review and it was widely suggested that noone else other than BigB himself could have acted better. Even if comparision is not done, his performance by far stands the tallest among the flops of recent year. and he has noit done it for the first time. remember his khakee, insaan and jaaneman.

Gabber 13 September 2008
05:39:34 am

‘a Welcome opening at 35 crores reaches 76 crores … a SIK opens at 43-44 crores and also ends with 76 crores’

If welcome had opened with same number of screens, it would have grossed the same in week 1 and total by week 5.

Achilles 13 September 2008
05:56:23 am

LOL … i love fanboys … dont i ?

anyways, now that KI and CCTC seems to be coming only next year, Tashan suddenly becomes another feather in Akshay’s cap?

While a Flop in Tashan did not hurt Akshay, its not a step forward either …it was touted to be akshay back in action and still he is stuck with his repeatitive comedy genre (not intending that its not good a genre or anything of that sort) … He is much like with comedy what srk was with romance … still he is like a genre actor … untill he gets success in something else now.

Achilles 13 September 2008
05:59:07 am

“So what else is left to prove”

Tango Bhai – U are not calling SIK a Blockbuster in your column … are u? if so, then indeed nothing else is left to prove.

Gabber 13 September 2008
05:59:14 am

I found this Prediction thread on SIK.

Interesting thing is that i had predicted 65-70 Cr.

But more interesting is to read how badly the likes of kunal27, johnnybrutal, Achilles, etc wanted this film to flop. Happy reading!

BTW have they recovered from the shock?

http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....-is-kinng/

Achilles 13 September 2008
06:04:34 am

I dont mind a fanboy being sore on me coz of my predictions … LOL

Gabber 13 September 2008
06:04:35 am

‘LOL … i love fanboys … dont i ?’

fortunately i am among the very few on NG who is a fan boy and not a hate boy.

Many are busy hating other actor’s (most recently Akshay’s) mega successes as can be seen in this thread. But strangely few loyalist haters are missing.

Tango 13 September 2008
06:07:47 am

No Ach bhai I am not calling it even a super-hit yet, because it is not by me.

After watching it I did not expect it to last this long, because whatever Welcome was comparatively a better movie, so indeed I am more than satisfied by its performance of getting to mid 70s.

Achilles 13 September 2008
06:07:57 am

Cutting out the hyperbole is surely hatred in the eyes of fanboys … no surprises there! … anyways, no time to reply to any more inane comments … have fun.

Gabber 13 September 2008
06:10:39 am

Tango, In your last Box office report on glamsham that came 2 days back, you have credited SIK to be a superhit.

Achilles 13 September 2008
06:11:11 am

Thanks Tango Bhai … that is indeed reasonable.

Btw, regarding predictions of some – lets not forget who predicted a Flop in JA and hits in Tashan, SR, LS 2050, SIK etc!

Bye Bye!

Gabber 13 September 2008
06:12:26 am

‘Cutting out the hyperbole ‘

dude, you are cutting the circle.
But let’s agree to hail King Kumar!

Gabber 13 September 2008
06:13:45 am

‘Flop in JA ‘ – I had predicted it to reach 60 Cr

I am not a hate boy dear!

Gabber 13 September 2008
06:14:51 am

Tango-
http://www.glamsham.com/movies.....090807.asp

‘The Akshay-Katrina starrer has so far netted a huge 72.70 crores in just four weeks from India. SINGH IS KINNG is nearing a super- hit status in India. The film is already a super success in the Overseas, grossing £1,306,736 from UK and $1,907,733 from US.’

nearing a superhit = superhit

Achilles 13 September 2008
07:25:34 am

“I am not a hate boy dear!”

LOL lets refresh some forgotten memories

“Comment by Nitesh on 6 February 2008:

My prediction for JA:

Opening week: 28Cr
Total: 48-50 CR
BO status: Above avg/flop(in some trade guides)

Critical review: above avg
audience review: mixed (ranging from pakaoo to good)

Hrithik will fail the test while Aish will steal the show.”

Link – http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....on-thread/

Now lets see how far reality is from the predictive philantrophist:

1. JA opens at only 25 crores.
2. Total 63 crores.
3. BO status – Hit to Superhit.
4. Critical review – Its the best reviewed Hit of 08 after Rock On!!
5. Hrithik’s act was much more universally praised by critics than any other lead actor any any biggies or hit movie of this year. Sadly Ash recieved the criticisms from a few.

Nitesh – dont ask to dig into ur ‘lovesign prediction’ .. u will further embarrass urself!

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
08:07:53 am

Achilles,

“Btw, regarding predictions of some – lets not forget who predicted a Flop in JA and hits in Tashan, SR, LS 2050, SIK etc!”

add drona to the list too ….

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
08:17:38 am

Som,
“Why is the trending theory so difficult ………..place more than anything else?”

Agree with each and every word!

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
08:50:50 am

Achilles,
“Sadly Ash recieved the criticisms from a few.”

i dont think anyone criticized her performance as well.

Gabber 13 September 2008
08:56:05 am

Ach,
LOL.
This prediction was done 10 days before the release of the film when the publicity was low key and no major dialog promos had come and Hrithik’s part was not coming out well.
There was another thread just before the release of JA where I had changed my prediction to 65 Cr.
Once the film released and I heard the WOM, I was amongst the first to persist that JA will do well, though was disappointed with its opening like all of us here. But even then I knew that it will persist.

So Ach, you can never become a fan boy like me. Happy hate boy to you once again!

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
09:04:19 am

Gabber,
“was disappointed with its opening”

No one else (except some die-hard HR fanslike me ) expected it to be a hit nor did any one(including all trade analysts) expect it to open well .
considering the bans in the initial weeks plus the multiplex issues in first week,it was a rather decent opening week and the merit of the movie and good-wishes of all fans resulted in its huge success.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:17:18 am

Agree that JA’s opening did not live up to the expectation but the way the film has trended (one of the best of this year) despite the genre disadvantage and the length,it is nothing but remarkable.To me JTYJN and JA still remain the films to beat when it comes to the audience acceptance,Rock On will become one in the coming weeks though.People talk about competition and all,Howcome JA did trend so well despite facing a tough opposition Race in the 6th week, the movie fetched 35 cr in the first week itself and went on to do more than 60 cr at the end.When a movie enjoys a good WOM, competition or not,the film will do well.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:20:26 am

My only gridge with JA is that it could not open big despite
1. Hrithik coming after a long time
2. controversey
3. Hrithik-Aish pair
4. No competition

Esp after the bumper opening of Mangal Pandey that too was historical and had all the above factors playing in, I had expected it to open well.
So while the film, Hrithik as actor and Aish as star (Overseas collections) succeeded, there were many questions raised on Hrithik’s pull, though genre disadvantage could be taken as a valid point.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:24:42 am

I will consider JTYJN a bigger success than JA or any other film this year including SIK just for the simple reason that JTYJN opened bigger than JA and then sustained well. It might be because it was release at limited screens, but then it opened to 90%+ collections or more).
SIK on the other hand was sold at a high cost and so in profit terms, it is not as handsome as JTYJN.
I do not see any other film being as profitable as JTYJN this year.

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
09:26:37 am

gabber,
the very fact that MP flopped miserably was a hindrance to the opening as most of the audience were of the opinion that it wud turn out to be another MP which thankfully wasnt the case!

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
09:28:24 am

gabber,
profit -wise:
JTYJN > JA >race > SIK.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:31:35 am

In terms of ROI JTYJN will topple other movies,not a single movie will even come close.But when we talk about the accepted movies, there is nothing much to choose between a JTYJN and JA, both sustained very well and clearly the movies to beat in terms of trending.

manoj16_391 13 September 2008
09:33:02 am

som,
trending-wise both jtyjn and JA(it had a more steady run) r equal.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:36:48 am

Manoj: Yeah almost..

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:37:11 am

Dion, I think you still does not give a hoot to opening.
I am not saying this because SIK got a good opening. But because a good (90%+) opening does provide a huge benefit that can be overcome if trending is not good because of factors like heavy competition, limited screen availability, etc.
It is like getting 99 percentile in cat, though this is not sufficient enought to get you into IIM, but the hard work and major hurdle is crossed.
In the same vein, a good opening for JTYJN followed by excellent trending makes it a far better grosser than any other film so far.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:41:49 am

‘gabber,
profit -wise:
JTYJN > JA >race > SIK.’

Manoj, whose profit?
Vipul and Akshay as producer, studio 18 as distributors, Sajid Nadiadwala as sub distributor of Punjab, subdistributors of most territories made handsome profits.

JA is not even in top 3 now.

JTYJN, Rock On and SIK are on top followed by Race and/or JA.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:42:05 am

Gabber, I know JTYJN opened very well in a limited release but when we talk about trending and the audience acceptance, there is nothing much to choose between a JTYJN and JA.If you ask me, JA’s trending was nothing but remarkable despite the genre disadvantage and length issue.I am really really impressed.I myself never expected JA to trend so well after the below par opening.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:43:51 am

SIK as the biggest grosser has a unique Box Office prestige that will be talked about for some more time.

JA is a good and a hit film.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:45:43 am

‘I know JTYJN opened very well in a limited release ‘

that’s it….had JTYJN opened in 1000+ theatres, would it have trended so well. No. So????

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:46:18 am

So far JTYJN,JA and Rock On are the biggest surprises of this year where as Race,SIK and SR can only be considered as under performers.Hopefully things will improve in the next few months..

rudresh 13 September 2008
09:48:18 am

its strange to club Race and SIk with SR.
First two have great opening.second has greatest .SR has poor opening week just good weekend.
–First two falls by around 60% has collected 30+cr in subsequent weeks.SR has no even collected more than 35 cr

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:48:26 am

@Dion, SIK as underperformer????
LOL
Spoken like a SRK fan…why do you need to subtract successes to achive a hidden agenda?

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:49:57 am

good points rudresh.
This must go as the most imaginative comment from the otherwise reliable Dion.

rudresh 13 September 2008
09:51:15 am

I also do not have idea that those who call SIK underperformer want it to get 100 cr???
In this way one can call 100+ cr movie as underperformer as someone may want that to get 150 cr??

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:52:15 am

Oh definitely yes,it was a genuinely accepted movie which would have trended well in any circumstance unlike Race and SIK.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
09:58:47 am

“Spoken like a SRK fan…why do you need to subtract successes to achive a hidden agenda?”

Gabber, I am “DIONYSIAC”,stop referring as SRK fan.Have I ever referred you as an Akshay fan?Learn some civility, will be good for you.

rks:It would be better if member starts referring other members as their screen name not like the fans of certain stars.

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:02:59 am

LOL, it has become a fad to call rks for help whenever caught by your tail.
Ohhhh…when did calling anyone a fan of a star become offensive? In the same thread, people haven been calling each other fans…so chill!

rudresh 13 September 2008
10:08:40 am

and why one cannot call SIK hit just because akshay had become such mega superstar who can open movie like it never happened before.But the fact is that he had made ,a not so good movie, SUPERHIT by giving it such a opening that there will be no chance left for being it flop or underperformer.

Achilles 13 September 2008
10:18:54 am

Rud – A movie thats been distributed with record prices, opens at 43-44 crores … media starts calling it Blockbuster … after the euphoria dies down the movie struggles to maintain the tempo and barely goes past 75 crores … its not an underperfomer?

Blockbuster deals like D2 and OSO wud still had got to 85-90 crores range in today’s money even with a 50 crore opening … they had that pull … SIK is not the Blockbuster deal that was being promised by media and fans … Taran calls it Hit, Nahata says distributers are running losses … its not a question about getting 100 crores … But a Blockbuster with a 44 crore opening cant overtake D2/OSO total … thats an underperformance.

And if was not an underperformance, then some of us wud not be soo eager to defend it.

SIK has turned out to be just another Hit of this year much like JA and Race.

SR falls in much lower category than any of the above movies … but like Race and SIK, it has also run into losses for certain sub-distributers … Dion mentioned it in that context.

As i have said before, among the hits, Jaane Tu is the only Blockbuster this year … Rock On is the superhit … rest all are just Hits be it JA, Race, SIK, Jannat or a Phoonk.

Among audience reception its Jaane Tu, Rock On (the order may get reversed) and then JA … rest are more or less week 1 movies profited due to clever marketing, hype and large no of prints.

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:25:57 am

right rudresh.
If I really wanted to push SIK’s performance I would never have acceded any other film to have done better than it.
I cannot fathom an instance when OSO was called an underperformer because Bheja Fry or TZP trended better than it.
This bull crap self-analysis is detestable as well as laughable.

Also agree with rudresh when he argues that benchamarking the nett of a film with a salf-assumed figure (100 Cr) is illogical. By the trending theory, the only way SIK could have been called a good hit if it had crossed 90 Cr (double of 44 Cr + few more crores) which no other film has done so far. So why one use a stick for some films and carrot for others?

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
10:31:18 am

Gabber,I have never done it by myself.If you are happy with your incivility,that is also good for you.So chill!!

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:31:24 am

For the likes of trending theory loyalists, SIK should have performed

week 1 – 44 Cr
week 2 – 22 Cr (50 % drop)
week 3 – 11 Cr (50% drop)
week 4 – 6 Cr (45% drop)

total = 83 Cr in 4 weeks.

which film has done this before? This way for a film that open at 44 Cr needs to make 90 Cr to be called a good hit.

Am I missing something here?

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:37:15 am

I am not calling SIK a blockbuster, though i have many reasons (media support, gross figure, etc) to call it so.
But am being pragmatic to call it a superhit (high selling price)in India and blockbuster (huge gross and profit) abroad.
But if others still feel this is an unreasonable quote, then they should complain to rks.

Achilles 13 September 2008
10:50:00 am

LOL … i have even heard media calling the likes of JA and Race as Blockbusters … so much for media support.

And the gross is hardly impressive considering the record distribution prices … no help here too.

Anyways, NG has endured worse than this … fans have called JA a Blockbuster, Race a blockbuster, now SIK … wont be surprised is an ardent RGV fan starts claiming Phoonk is a Blockbuster too … hyperboles from fans are always excused (and essential too for the sheer fun of it!

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:52:29 am

JA – a blockbuster….never heard even from a fan of Aish.

Achilles, I think the threads are looosening for your kites.

Achilles 13 September 2008
11:03:22 am

“never heard even from a fan of Aish” – they are more sensible than our akki fans here.

Anyways, as for media crap here is the latest example .. there have been more than a handful of the same if one does a simple search:

http://www.naachgaana.com/2008.....-festival/

PS – Its too much to make a blind fan see any logic or reason … i give up! u can continue with ur inane insinuations if u feel it can make ur case any stronger.

Gabber 13 September 2008
11:09:25 am

‘The three spoofs titled as Jadoo Ek Bar, Bechaare Zameen Par and Cheque De India ‘

I loved the titles and think that these spoofs will be fun.

‘u can continue with ur inane insinuations if u feel it can make ur case any stronger.’

Boss, Jab khud par yakeen ho aur baajoo (Akshay film’s financial arm due to heavy grosses and opening) mein dum ho to ladne mein mazaa aataa hai. Akki fans love all kind of entertainment. They are not biased or phoney. All hail the King!

rockstar 13 September 2008
11:21:46 am

http://movies.indiainfo.com/fe.....20506.html

they earlier did the same with dhoom posters this time around are very funny to

sv 13 September 2008
12:56:10 pm

SIK is not an underperformer.In audience acceptability it is a hit,and a superhit at box office.

rks 13 September 2008
01:24:06 pm

“Spoken like XXX fan” (Replace XXX fan with any star)

This is normally used to put down the other commentator. But Dion has genuine grievance because he is not furthering his point on SRK but rather on trending. I don’t see a point of using this after he objected.

Most of the comments by Gabber and Ach towards each other are bordering on personal.

I would have closed the thread but this is a weekly thread so I am leaving this open. But I will not hesitate to delete the whole comment(s) which is/are objectional after this warning.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
07:20:25 pm

Weekly collections on IBOS

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:23:27 pm

‘This is normally used to put down the other commentator. But Dion has genuine grievance because he is not furthering his point on SRK but rather on trending. I don’t see a point of using this after he objected. ‘

rks, everyone in this thread is trying to further his point. I am still to get a reply to most of the questions i posted above on the reason to call any movie an under performer based on trending all the time.

While trending is accpted by all including me to judge the merit of a film, I think one should also realise that it creates a huge disadvantage for a big opener as it indirectly demands it to create a BO record breaking total gross as I have already pointed to in my example above. I also feel that it is a simple fact but is kept in the closet for all reasons which is dubious.

Moreover furthering the point happens when you are reasonable in your analysis. Here the points were simply repeated without further insights or reasoning. In other words it is called beating around the bush.

My question on opening of a film comes under attack naturally due to SIK but I feel it is a genuine issue and when someone blindfoldedly fails to understand, in my book either he is unable to understand (which is not the case here) or does not wants to. If I find the latter then my reference to his as being biased or being like a fan was made to ascertain this.

Moreover, once Dion asked to use his name, I accepted it. But calling you for help all the time needs to have a relook as during blogging, these instances of warm exchanges are cyclical and as long as people adjust themselves on their own, I feel over-interference or calling for it reduces the fun.

I agree on your comments between Ach and I.

Gabber 13 September 2008
09:56:56 pm

For the likes of trending theory loyalists, SIK should have performed

week 1 – 44 Cr
week 2 – 22 Cr (50 % drop)
week 3 – 11 Cr (50% drop)
week 4 – 6 Cr (45% drop)

total = 83 Cr in 4 weeks.

which film has done this before? This way for a film that open at 44 Cr needs to make 90 Cr to be called a good hit. Now not all films will break box office record of total nett. Does this mean that all good openers have underperformed in BO?

rks 13 September 2008
10:05:13 pm

Gabber: I read all the comments; Dion has not so good comments about SRK starrers Don and KANK (even though everyone knows that he is a SRK fan). He made his arguments for trending (D2, Race, welcome – JA, Don,KANK). You made your argument for better first week. I think both the arguments are valid.

Jesse 13 September 2008
10:22:46 pm

Totally random, and not possibly the right place to ask this: but does anybody know when the DVD of JTYJN is releasing? Seems like forever since it released.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
10:33:39 pm

My argument for SIK being an under performer was purely based on trending.I don’t expect it to trend like a TZP or a LRM, its very difficult unless it enjoys a good repeat viewing, but At least it should have double it’s opening or in more liberal term a 80 cr(BOI’s numbers).If OSO and Welcome are able to do that despite being released on a wide scale, I don’t see that as a problem for SIK.Same argument I hold against Race as well.One can clearly see the difference between the acceptance rate of Race and Welcome, both movies had almost the same first week.On one hand when Welcome managed to add few crores after doubling the initial, Race did not even manage to double it’s initial at the first place, fell short by 8-9 cr.Both movies might be successful(super hit or block buster or whatever) in pure commercial or trade terms but Welcome is clearly the movie which lived up to the expectation of the paying public which matters to me the most.As far me being an SRK fan, Yes I do like SRK but I would never ever put a case in favor of a KANK which was not liked by most of the audience still managed to put up a decent total at the end, Trade guys even called it a Hit more of a “Technical Hit” in my book. Same thing I hold against Don as well though it was a decently liked movie. When JA opening in the same range and on a wider scale went on to make more than 60 cr at the end, Don ended it’s run just over 50 cr. That is what a difference between a Movie enjoying good WOM and the one having a decent-ok WOM.

Gabber 13 September 2008
10:54:40 pm

‘My argument for SIK being an under performer was purely based on trending’

The issue with using trending theory alone is that while one knows how much %drop in subsequent weeks is good, one does not know how much of opening nett is good for a movie. I had even suggested to come up with a more practical way to include Opening effect into trending theory. This will make the analysis fool proof. It can be done. Maybe he can involve people like Dion as well.

This is the crux of the issue. when a film grosses record breaking collection in week 1, then benchmarking it with other films in terms of trending raises the bar for this film just because it opened extraordinarily well. Opening of 35 Cr when release with 500 less prints could have been called very well for SIK (90-100% collection) but with 44 Cr opening, it beat that figure by 9 Cr in week 1.
Then in week 2 it grossed 18 Cr. If it had opened at 35 Cr, it would have been called a good trending as it would have dropped by 50%.
So till week 2, SIK would have been called a great success based on trending alone.

But one should be more happy that it grossed 44+18 = 62 Cr in 2 weeks than 35+18=53 Cr in 2 weeks.

Subsequently except for week 3, SIK would have trended by 50%. A good success in all regards if you consider only trending theory. Here I am not even considering that week 2 would have grossed more if SIK had opened with limited prints and grossed 35 Cr.

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
10:55:06 pm

Jeese: No idea!! Probably in few weeks or so..

Dionysiac 13 September 2008
11:15:30 pm

“This is the crux of the issue. when a film grosses record breaking collection in week 1, then benchmarking it with other films in terms of trending raises the bar for this film just because it opened extraordinarily well”

I think a comparison between two similar sort of films Race and Welcome in terms of their release(cinema count) and the opening week gross(almost the same 35 cr) will serve the purpose.On one hand when Welcome managed to add few more crore after doubling it’s initial, Race fell short by 8-9 cr from doubling the first week gross.This is what I believe is due to the fact Welcome lived up to the expectation of the public more than anything else unlike Race.A good WOM worked in favor of Welcome..

This is the last comment from me on this trending theory, not gonna extend the argument further.

Gabber 13 September 2008
11:36:33 pm

Dion, comparision with Race and welcome is not great but good enough-

both opened at 35 Cr
both had the similar genre though there was a big difference as welcome had more crowd pleasing genre and more repeatability factor.

But Race and SIK cannot be compared. Films like SIK that breaks opening week collections by a big margin (9 Cr or 25% more over 35 Cr openings), it becomes a significant difference. Also it then goes on to become amongst the top 3 grossers of recent times (after OSO and D2), assuming that it ends at 77 Cr.

Dion, I think opening week issue is a big issue esp if the end gross is impressive that cannot be overlooked. Most probable all big films like Dostana, Wanted, Golmaal Returns, RNBDJ, Ghajini will open big to varying degree.

If Ghajini opens at 50 Cr and does not double its opening but still manages to get 85 Cr,
If Dostana opens at 37 Cr and reached 60 Cr
If RNBDJ opens at 50 Cr and reaches 85 Cr
If Golmaal opens at 35 Cr and reaches 60 Cr
If Kites opens at 55 Cr and reaches 90 Cr

These are all huge successes like SIK. And these are not a mere ‘if’ cases, because chances of it being happenning is more realistic now.

So my suggestion to satyam, rks, jay, rudresh, Dion, Ach is to suggest realistic measures. We can seek help from experts like Tango, Jongindar in this regard.

Tango 13 September 2008
11:46:14 pm

Good points Gabber.

What if SIK makers had gone for some less prints and 35 cr then, 18, 10…. so the same movie would have been called a hit at the asme end total of 75-76 cr by trending? Sorry I find it stupid logic.

Tango 13 September 2008
11:52:47 pm

But then if anyone wants to use the trending theory as the benchmark, then he/she must always stick to it with the upcoming movies, as Gabber has suggested with some examples.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
12:01:06 am

“But then if anyone wants to use the trending theory as the benchmark, then he/she must always stick to it with the upcoming movies”

We the firm believer in the trending theory will stick to it. If RNBDJ or Ghajni makes anything less than OSO’s end gross(Quoting BOI’s gross) after opening close to 50 cr as Gabber suggested,They will be considered as some sort of under performers no two ways about it.I guess the recent performance of The Dark Knight perfectly suggests how a movie despite opening to huge numbers can trend well too.

rks 14 September 2008
12:08:26 am

Gabber: I don’t find anything wrong if someone wants to make most of the buck in first week. But I don’t think SIK would have got same amount (as of today), had it been released with less number of prints. So in retrospect I think SIK producers did correct thing for themselves.

Tango 14 September 2008
12:12:23 am

You may Dion but you will see (like I have seen umpteen times) many others changing there stance.

For me as I have always said, a movie has to get to certain total, one can get it the twenty20 way or the Test match way. There are no brownie points for getting it the test match way as the distributor ends up paying more theatre rentals, thereby reducing his/her profits.

Tango 14 September 2008
12:16:27 am

rks, the way it has got 31-32cr after week 1 it would have got to about the same total.

As I have said the makers have been dropping prints in a large number (even when the exhibitors have not been demanding it), as they have achieved their target for the week, so no use paying rentals.

sv 14 September 2008
01:02:12 am

well,people have spoken about trending theory,I expect they stick to it.

jayshah 14 September 2008
05:20:26 am

I repeat a post from couple of weeks back.

In a word, the “wider” the release or the bigger the opening, the more the trending rate required for a hit falls. Because I do release a film releasing on 2,000 prints cannot trend like one releasing on 400 prints. However, the film still needs to trend!

The best way to explain is lets say the Market potential of Ghajini is 50Cr.

1) If Ghajini opens 30Cr (60% occupancy) it suggests the opening has not lived up to expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show strong trending. It must reach around 70Cr – trending off 43% each week

2) If Ghajini opens 35Cr (70% occupancy) it suggests the opening was very good and the film lived upto expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show good trending. It must reach 70Cr – trending of 50% each week

3) If Ghajini opens 40Cr (80% occupancy) it suggests the opening was excellent and the film surpassed expectations. To score a hit now, Ghajini must show decent trending. it must reach 70Cr – trending of 57% each week

4) Now the final scenario is if Ghajini just blows it away in week one and opens 45Cr (90% occupancy). Here I would be stricter on the performance. The film must make 75Cr – which still means trending of 60% each week

You can see here that the “trending %” required for a hit is relaxed – in a sense the model “allows” for the fact that bigger releases are likely to trend less fortunately.

With SIK I have taken scenario 3). The film has opened exceptionally well and needs to trend at roughly 57-59% each week. This takes into account opposition it has faced aswell but at the same time, the film too is more audience friendly then what many think Ghajini will be.

In scenarios 1-3 one can read a lot into acceptance of the film.

Scenario 1) suggests the film has worked more on WOM
Scenario 2) suggests the film has worked on WOM and hype
Scenario 3) suggests the film has worked more on hype

All three score a hit – to show it is possible for me to give the same verdict despite different way of doing business. Scenario 2) however is the most feasible one IMO or the best one because it incorporates both star power/hype and general acceptance of the movie over a period of time.

All 3 scenarios earn the HIT tag therefore for different reasons.

But lets see what kind of film Ghajini is before passing judgement on how I will approach its verdict.

Also in the past I have given hits under

Scenario 1) – Namastey London, Jodha Akbar
Scenario 2) – Tara Rum Pum, Bhagam Bhag, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
Scenario 3) – Race

Of course the vast majority of “clean hits” – films like Metro, Fanaa, LRM, Krrish, D2, OSO, Partner, TZP, CDI, JTYJN, Welcome, RDB etc simply do one think consistently – they trend well period! They open well and sustain strongly for at least 2 weeks at the box office which should be the bare minimum expected of any film.

[This is my last post on this matter - I've layed out my POV plenty of times, even I am getting bored of hearing my own voice on this matter!]

jayshah 14 September 2008
05:22:36 am

And before trending theory is “bashed” – can anyone explain how a film sold for 38Cr and makes 34Cr at the box office is called a FLOP when another film sold for at least 65Cr, makes 60Cr at the box office and is already called a HIT?

You ask for logic – where is the logic in that?

rudresh 14 September 2008
05:54:57 am

Am I only one who has got this feeling or some others are also there–Now every hero should try to open his movie as low as possible,so that they can get bigger hits in their resume.

jayshah 14 September 2008
07:23:42 am

rudresh if that is how you and others have “interpreted” this, then it is pointless trying to explain further.

“But I don’t think SIK would have got same amount (as of today), had it been released with less number of prints. So in retrospect I think SIK producers did correct thing for themselves.”

Exactly rks. It is a fantasy to suggest if SIK released on 750 cinemas instead of 1,000 it would have “trended” supremely better to get to 75Cr!

What logic. It does not happen to films that carry average WOM. It can only happen with films carrying strong WOM!

rudresh 14 September 2008
09:51:41 am

well i think that if 70 cr is required for the movie to get hit tag then its HIT whether it earn same amount in 5 weeks or 10 weeks.well only if the movie earn 70 crore in first week only and after that none,then also its unaccepted movie but technically its HIT.or may be 60 in first week and 10 in second then also one knows its not accepted but then again its techincally HIT

rockstar 14 September 2008
09:54:02 am

“And before trending theory is “bashed” – can anyone explain how a film sold for 38Cr and makes 34Cr at the box office is called a FLOP when another film sold for at least 65Cr, makes 60Cr at the box office and is already called a HIT?

You ask for logic – where is the logic in that?”

it was not a flop it was a propaganda and certain people where bluntly exposed in that

rockstar 14 September 2008
09:59:29 am

there is a difference between a movie being tecnically hit and the movie being accepted if u ask many people in india they will tell kank is a failure

but ya trending matter it will be foolish to say it don’t it shows the movie is accepted or not

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:02:45 am

but things are different here for sik

its not jodha akbar which got no competition from 6 month and did well just by making money on weekends mostly

sik faced a heavy competition from 2nd week itself ( 2 films released along with it on 15th together made 35 cr on week 2), also on its rum it had movies like phoonk, bah , rock on , wedneday etc

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:09:45 am

And these days even one week is big time, after the weekend it becomes clear that movie is accepted or not.Rescent examples are tashan and even SR

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:13:35 am

just a correction

“its not jodha akbar which got no competition for 6 weeks”

but how u r getting the picture from first weekend

only from how much the film has done on his whole run or in other words how it has trended

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:24:42 am

people these days well aware of movie release.If there is hype/craze,tickets available ,why the people wait for 5th week to watch the movie at that time other film releases these days.Its only small movies or movies for which they are not sure,they wait for this WOM.OR one will not go to watch if its total bakwas,nothing good ,else little chance that they will not go to watch.And most of movies are one time watch in the theater(else you are not fan of someone)(or can be said that maximum people in India go for one time watch in theater ).So if maximum people had watched it in week 1 and week 2(60 cr in two weeks for SIK do not come from just no where) its bit unfair to say that the movie is not HIT/SUPERHIT

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:27:04 am

KANK was rejected as movie was virtually out of theater after second week.

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:29:48 am

if there is a quality product people indded wait for atleast 5 week its absurd to say trending only applies to a small movie if the movie is a quality producy it will have multiple view

this notion of making quick money are applied by only those who are not sure about the product and want to earn max money from the first week itself if the movie has hype

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:31:32 am

doesn’t oso trended well after a big first week , same happened with d2 , welcome , fanaa, guru, rdb etc

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
10:31:49 am

“but how u r getting the picture from first weekend
only from how much the film has done on his whole run or in other words how it has trended”

Rockstar: Just an indication after knowing what was the 1st weekend total.For example Race did 22 cr in the 1st weekend, first week was 35 cr which meant the film took a fall close to 50% in the weekdays which is significant IMO.Looking at what happened in the weekdays,You can assume the film will take a fall in the 2nd week as the WOM is particularly not that strong that is what exactly happened with Race which took a fall close to 58% in the 2nd week.In case of movies like Saawariya and JBJ, because the rejection is so massive they just fade away as soon as the weekend is over.Movies like KANK and Mp even SR to some extent have a section of audience going for it, so the average fall may not be as huge as movies like a JBJ or Saawariya but is pretty significant i.e falling close to 60% on an average every week.

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:34:39 am

JA example is also good example.If there had been good releases from second week or 3rd week it would not have easy for it to make 63+.As there would not have been that screens available ,that much shows available.Then how will have judged it has very good WOM and highly accepetd. then it would not have been called even Technical HiT

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:36:31 am

“KANK was rejected as movie was virtually out of theater after second week.”

and ya it is technically hit according to some , it made most of its money from the first week and didn’t trended well

if trending is applicable to small movies only many small movies would indeed have reached 50-60 cr

only those small movie reach there those who have a particular brandname or star associated with them and have a trimendous wom

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
10:39:50 am

Rudresh: I would never question about JA’s trending or its success. It was an accepted movie,no two ways about it.Competition or not,It would have sustained.

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:40:21 am

“Just an indication after knowing what was the 1st weekend total.For example Race did 22 cr in the 1st weekend, first week was 35 cr which meant the film took a fall close to 50% in the weekdays which is significant IMO.Looking at what happened in the weekdays,You can assume the film will take a fall in the 2nd week as the WOM is particularly not that strong that is what exactly happened with Race which took a fall close to 58% in the 2nd week”

agree there som and once again it proves the importance of trending u can’t ignore that

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:42:52 am

but question is why to wait for 5 week when you had chance to watch that product in week one.When there had been no option people had waited for 30-40 weeks.So I donot think if some one has chance to watch a quality product on first week then they should not watch it on first week.
—

thsi apply for high grossing films mostly as they had already made the money which shows that people had accepted it.
—-
one more thing why these so highly accepted movies also stop less than what some one had earned just in aweek.If they are such a great quality product ,why did not they had become the highest grosser.The answer of this question in reverse apply to high grossers also.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
10:43:40 am

By the way SR was not a massively rejected movie,It had a section of audience going for it for sure.I would definitely not club it with movies like a JBJ or Saawariya..

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:45:31 am

“”JA example is also good example.If there had been good releases from second week or 3rd week it would not have easy for it to make 63+.As there would not have been that screens available ,that much shows available.”"

may be but it still made 63 on the time when other makers don’t even release their movie as it is not considered beneficial to the market this clearly showed the movie had a good wom

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:48:58 am

som even sik is not a rejected movie a particular section of audience rooted for it ( includes north in time of heavy competion and collection where indded impressive there )but i accept its not massivly accepted in rest of india thanks to its theme ( whih was more punjabi in content)

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:52:53 am

“but question is why to wait for 5 week when you had chance to watch that product in week one.When there had been no option people had waited for 30-40 weeks.So I donot think if some one has chance to watch a quality product on first week then they should not watch it on first week.”

quality product will have his leg , the condition which u are telling is of big movies who floods the market with print but again the criteria even for them i to be accepted is they should atleast do more than double of their opening

rudresh 14 September 2008
10:53:26 am

One thing 13 crore in weekdays (four days) is not bad and 50% fall in weekdays is normal fall.
No one saying trending has to be igonre but to say if same movie has earned xyz amount in 10 weeks then its hit else not is also not acceptable.

But a simple thing is that if movie has earned 73 cr+ in 5 week and 3o+ in subsequent week is no way can be called as underperformer(word sound even lower than semihit status)

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:56:20 am

“thsi apply for high grossing films mostly as they had already made the money which shows that people had accepted it.”

as i told most of the high grossing indeed trended well
—-
“one more thing why these so highly accepted movies also stop less than what some one had earned just in aweek.If they are such a great quality product ,why did not they had become the highest grosser.The answer of this question in reverse apply to high grossers also.”

intially they don’t flood the market with print i guess their prints is increased by makers after judging their wom , u just can’t apply the same logic which u can do for any other masala movies

jayshah 14 September 2008
10:56:57 am

rudresh can you actually explain to me how and why SIK was declared a hit at 60Cr? Can anyone?

rockstar 14 September 2008
10:59:38 am

“One thing 13 crore in weekdays (four days) is not bad and 50% fall in weekdays is normal fall.
No one saying trending has to be igonre but to say if same movie has earned xyz amount in 10 weeks then its hit else not is also not acceptable.”

i am not counting out any week specification

weeks numbers are just there to indicate falls isn’t it , treding has hardly anything to do with weeks a movie has to atleast do more than double of its intital( opening week) to atleast be accepted

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:01:22 am

very true and reverse the response for higher grossers.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:01:56 am

rudresh,
Beleive me you are making a point in vain to Dion, who is more adament to sticking to his gun and no matter what will not be ready to understand a simple logic. He will keep repeating the same stuff while not answering the questions directly.
It is a matter of business while Dion’s theory goes by his choices.

SIK is a blockbuster! (I have changed by stance from calling it a mere superhit now) just to point out that I too can be adament and bullheaded.

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:02:09 am

to rks: wish we the members should again get our 15 min editing time again to edit our comments so that those who type in hurry can atleast reduce their typing error

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:03:40 am

Jay, SIK is a blockbuster.
It is so because it has Akshay/Katrina/Vipul in it. They always make blockbuster films.

Take it as a tit for tat logic.

jayshah 14 September 2008
11:06:36 am

The point is I have a method to my madness and can at any given point at least explain why I have given a classification this way or that way. The problem I see here is no-one else can explain how and why SIK is given a hit at 60Cr.

This is clearly a ludicrous debate if one side cannot even keep up there side of the bargain!

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:07:46 am

Jay,in my views,any movie whhich had made 60 cr (whther it had given 5 cr profit or 20 cr profit) is qualify for HIT tag if it had not incur loss.
60 cr is still a very big amount(mean movie had power to let such huge number of people to come and watch it)other qualification can go by seeing the profiatbility

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:07:46 am

Akshay has given two 75+ grosser and blockbuster in less than 10 months. No other actor has achieved that.

Akshay has given 6 blockbusters in last 25 months. A record since last 25 years.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:08:58 am

‘The problem I see here is no-one else can explain how and why SIK is given a hit at 60Cr. ‘

No one can explain why SIK is not a blockbuster after Netting 76 Cr in 6 weeks. Ha!

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:10:18 am

u just can’t declare a movie hit at 60 cr market is growing and even in sometime this will not be a benchmark

jay: indian bo is not transparent at all simple as that

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:10:26 am

SIK is the biggest hit 0f 2008!

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:12:41 am

“no one can explain why SIK is not a blockbuster after Netting 76 Cr in 6 weeks. Ha!”

how it can be have we forgot the earlier classification of declaring a movie hit or flop

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
11:13:32 am

“The problem I see here is no-one else can explain how and why SIK is given a hit at 60Cr.”

Jay, It has more to do with lack of transparency on the part of the trade guys and BO sites and inconsistency in everything they do.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:13:46 am

Some logic being displayed here that is similar to –

JTYJN has trended better than OSO.
So JTYJN is a blockbuster while OSO is just a hit.

JTYJN has trended better than TZP.
So TZP is just a hit

JA has trended better than LRM.
JA is a bigger hit than LRM.

jayshah 14 September 2008
11:15:00 am

In fact I can pick it a part in two seconds.

SIK is sold for no less than 65Cr. I can guesstimate its distribution price for all-India to be at least 30Cr here.

Now at 30Cr, for distributors to make any money at all-India level, the film must at least make 60Cr at the box office. Because deals are brokered at 55-45, 50-50 what not. Now at 60Cr nett gross, the distributor share cannot be that much more or less than 30Cr.

So a film that has hardly made a rupee for distributors (at all-India level) on their investment is declared a HIT.

Now you ask for logic – this is the logic you want!

In fact Sarkar Raaj did not make a rupee for distributors at all-India level at 34Cr nett, because it’s DP was 17Cr. However, this film is called a FLOP.

So when things like this are staring one straight in the face – I find it rather funny that “trending theory” is being picked apart!

And again I have displayed my logic up top. There is nothing much more to add from my side.

I do not need to “sell this” any further. Because I do not see at all a “method” or “approach” available (and visibly so) that is more “transparent” or “clearly shown” by any-one – this is pure fact…tell me where this is one trade analyst displaying method, the “criteria” and the results and is CONSISTENT – then we can talk about the pro’s and con’s of box office classifications.

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:16:28 am

“Jay, It has more to do with lack of transparency on the part of the trade guys and BO sites and inconsistency in everything they do.”

brilliantly said

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:17:22 am

below 60 cr ( that also considering today scinerio may be its 70 cr after six months)its ok to say that it has required only 30 cr to be hIt and now it has earned 35 cr so its HIT.
But i think in every field there is some point,some numbers ,some figures ,certain benchmarks and once you cross that bench mark it automatically falls into the other category.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
11:18:11 am

Jay,Totally agree!! Nothing to add..

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:18:57 am

‘“The problem I see here is no-one else can explain how and why SIK is given a hit at 60Cr.”’

The day trending theory followers uses a little more logic one will get the answer to bigger questions.

Trending was earlier correctly used to find the merit of a fil. It was later hijacked to descibe good hit or bad hit. Terms like technical hit were coined after the failure of KANK and people (read Dion) started finding similar trends in other films which were never as rejected as KANK. Not even Saawariya.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:20:41 am

Jay, your last logic is good. Please be consistant across all films. I think this logic is better than what Dion is pushing across.

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:21:16 am

jay one time you say just go by trending to give hit status,if same movie had made 30 cr in week one you would had given it a superhit status ignoring all the losses etc. and now you are counting on that.
As i said you cannot go on trending only to say movie is hit and similarly you can not go by 2 times multiply of cost to give hit status.

sv 14 September 2008
11:21:55 am

Jay,at 60 crores the distributor share is 33 crores,more than India distribution price of 32 crores,and is a hit.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
11:22:04 am

I remember BOI once came up with an article claiming how some distributors have lost money on Sarkar Raaj in such and such circuits.Will it do the same when there is a talk of sub distributors losing money on SIK in some circuits as well?No Why? Why such inconsistency?BOI is not gonna answer that.

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:22:16 am

“But i think in every field there is some point,some numbers ,some figures ,certain benchmarks and once you cross that bench mark it automatically falls into the other category”

so basically u want to go by that model so why to cry for distributor profit

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:22:47 am

rudresh. good job man. You are making more sense than all of us put together.

jayshah 14 September 2008
11:24:15 am

“similarly you can not go by 2 times multiply of cost to give hit status”

I have NEVER made such claims. rudresh your not following my comments at all.

Race did not double its initial – it still got a HIT by me.

Again I refer you to my Ghajini example up top. It takes into account a film that opens decently but trends well, or a film that opens superbly but does not trend aswell. In the end both are hits.

Thats all.

sv 14 September 2008
11:24:45 am

What is overseas gross of SIK?

jayshah 14 September 2008
11:25:27 am

“Jay,at 60 crores the distributor share is 33 crores,more than India distribution price of 32 crores,and is a hit.”

So sv – the film made 1Cr profit so its a HIT! And SR was basically break even – so its a FLOP! Right again I stress there is NO LOGIC here.

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:25:32 am

“JTYJN has trended better than OSO.
So JTYJN is a blockbuster while OSO is just a hit.

JTYJN has trended better than TZP.
So TZP is just a hit

JA has trended better than LRM.
JA is a bigger hit than LRM.”

look to be someone’s personal opinion and ya the profit of the movie does not depend on its gross a jtyjan is certainly more profitable than ja or sik

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:25:56 am

Simple thing is that a movie which had earnd 75 cr is superhit whether it has doubled the cost or not /or whther it has trended the way some one want it to trend or not.
As this number gives it a status to call a superhit.
And please donot apply 30 cr+ movie logic to 75+cr movie.

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:29:01 am

rockstar its first time i am discussing the hit and flop kinda thing.I never said that go by distributor cost only.And as i said I am from the school which beleives that at certain point the normallaws does not work. Like einstein theory does not work for black holes

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:30:22 am

rockstar, Please do not try to find sanity in my comments as it is meant to send across a message and does not share my views. It is to give some their own medicine.

jayshah 14 September 2008
11:31:44 am

“And please donot apply 30 cr+ movie logic to 75+cr movie”

Why not? So your telling me if a film is sold for 40Cr now and makes a huge number like 80CR (it sounds massive right ) but it breaks even for distributors it should be called a HIT under “trade” parameters??????

Like I said trade is trade. They assess profitability and they should stick to it. Not draw up a different set of criteria for Sarkar Raj and another one for Singh is Kinng.

sv 14 September 2008
11:32:13 am

Jay,That is the logic of trade.I think a gross of 65 crores is a big hit given the cost.Provided it is hit at mumbai,delhi,
punjab etc wguch it is.

Sarkar Raj is not a flop.I did not call it a flop.I called it Above average.Some poeple like achilles were bent on calling it a flop and went bonkers.But after the truth emerged later,they kept quiet.
Believe it or not SR is a bigger success than Race.
SR grossed higher than race abroad.
Only thing is SR trending is bad .

rockstar 14 September 2008
11:32:40 am

“Simple thing is that a movie which had earnd 75 cr is superhit whether it has doubled the cost or not /or whther it has trended the way some one want it to trend or not.
As this number gives it a status to call a superhit”

so even when it has not made the required criteria for getting superhit

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:34:27 am

According to the trade SR, TZP, JA, SIK, OSO, Race, Fanaah, Dil, Swades, GangaJal, Ram Teri Ganga Maili and CDI are similar hits.

rudresh 14 September 2008
11:35:01 am

Apply any theory to give hit or flop status or sub stauts but accpet the fact that there is certain bench mark above which these theories normally does not apply in strict sense.and i donot think 75 cr is bad benchmark to consider a movie superhit.
Give the credit where its due.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:35:57 am

‘But after the truth emerged later,they kept quiet.’

Made my night sv.

sv 14 September 2008
11:37:23 am

gabber,Race is average according to trade.

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:37:25 am

‘Give the credit where its due.’

Baat Pate ki hai. Koi to sun le bhai!

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:38:45 am

sv, SIK is blockbuster according to trade. The day we accept this, I will make Aamir the new King Khan. That’s a promise!

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:42:05 am

Singh is King status:

BOI : super hit
Abid: superhit
Taran: Clean Hit
Satyam: superhit
rudresh: superhit
Gabber: superhit
rks: superhit
sv:blockbuster
sunil:blockbuster
hardik: superhit
Jogindar: superhit

Media: Blockbuster

others are ignored

Gabber 14 September 2008
11:43:41 am

Satyam, rks, hardik – thanks for sending me a personal email confirming on SIK.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
08:42:21 pm

I fail to understand why the “trending” theory has been ripped apart here. What is so difficult to figure out? The trending theory at large gives you an idea about the acceptability of the film amongst the paying public, whether the film has the legs or not as soon as the initial euphoria over the film dies down. The first weekend or the initial 4-5 days do not indicate anything about the word of mouth a film is carrying. Pulling as many as people to the theaters initially by flooding the cinemas with maximum prints and maximum number of shows has more to do with the pre-release hype which could be an outcome of various factors like the genre, the presence of a star, the acceptability of the film’s music, marketing, promotion etc.

The real test in fact begins when the initial hype settles down and the word of mouth sets in and starts working. A film enjoying a good word of mouth will always have the audience going for it and keeps on falling at a very reasonable rate in the subsequent weeks. 2nd week has always been the key, depending on what sort of drop a film takes very much gives a clear idea about the kind of word of mouth the film is carrying with it. As far as I remember there has not been a single instance where a film after taking a significant drop (read it as close to 60%) in the 2nd week has managed to trend well in the subsequent weeks. Films those have been liked by a majority of audience will never have a significant fall no matter on what scale they have been released all over. A movie like “Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna” or even “Race” which made 60% of their gross in the first week alone, that does indicate both were not particularly liked by the audience to a large extent. There might be a section of audience liking a Race but if we look at the overall scenario many did not appreciate it. Of course I don’t deny the fact that one can’t really compare a movie that sees a wide release and the one on a limited release; Films having a limited release will always have the advantage to take a very negligible drop in the 2nd week if they have been accepted something what we saw happening with a “Taare Zameen Par”, “Ja Ne Tu Ya Jane Na” and now “Rock On” seems to be following the same route. Expecting such minimal falls for biggies which go on to fetch a record breaking gross in the opening week is almost impossible to achieve. A fall of 50-55% on an average would be fairly acceptable on a big release even if that won’t be indicating a strong word of mouth. Anything below 50% would be good-remarkable depending upon the average rate of drop.

The recent performance of “The Dark Knight” is a pretty good example of how a film opening to huge numbers, record breaking numbers in the opening weekend can trend well too. It fell by little over 50% in the 2nd week which is acceptable considering the big release but then onwards the film has been rock steady, falling less than 40% on an average in the subsequent weeks which goes on to prove the word of mouth is good and has worked for it. I have also given the example of “Welcome”, how it managed to hold on well and added few crore even after doubling it’s opening week gross unlike “Race” despite it doing almost the same in the opening week. Even D2, the same genre as “Race” managed to show remarkable trending after a huge opening. Hence the very point of big openers not showing good trending is defeated here. Of course no one expects the big openers to trend like a “Taare Zameen Par” or a “Lage Raho Munna Bhai” but at least they can come close to doubling their initials and believe me it’s not a big ask, this should be the minimum benchmark. In the current scenario if a movie like “Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi” opens close to 50 cr but fails to out gross a “Dhoom2” or an “Om Shanti Om”, it will be an Under performer in my book even if the end gross might be a big one and the trade might call it as a super hit or a Blockbuster or whatever. And the word Under perfomer has nothing to do with Trade verdicts, in my book it will just indicate the film fell short of what it could have ideally made. Some way or the other the film did not manage to live up to the expectation of the paying public. To me the trust and the acceptability of the audience matter the most more than anything else and that can’t simply be valued in monetary or trade terms. That is all what I can say, closing my case….

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
09:24:08 pm

LINK

Q. What are the intial reactions to Golmaal Returns promo?

A. Excellent. Its been very well received and liked by one and all in the trade and eveoked tremendous curiosity from the film going public. Golmaal Returns is a sure shot winner.

Karan Arora, Canada

Q. What are the budgets of Rock On and Phoonk?

A. The budget of Rock On is 10 crore and Phoonk is 3 crore. Including release costs the figures are 12 and 5 crore respectively.

S. Raghav, India

Q. Will Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi beat the first week record of Singh Is Kinng?

A. It depends on the release but going by costs of Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi its unlikely to have a record release and the makers will try and make full use of the prints over 4/5 weeks instead of going for the kill in week one and then heavily dropping print count week by week.

Sateesh Ramchandani, Spain

Q. Singh is Kinng has fetched 72+ crores so far in India and as per your calculations, it will fetch 150 crores all over world, then why it hasn’t been given the status of a blockbuster?

A. The film is a Super Hit as per the theatrical business in India as business ranges from All Time Blockbuster to Average depending on the circuit.

Gourav Mahajan, India

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
10:02:11 pm

Singh Is Kinng Emerges Highest Revenue Earner Ever

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
10:38:13 pm

Multiplexes, eateries, retail stores – all take a hit

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
11:01:55 pm

Indore Barometer: Small is big!

By Taran Adarsh, September 15, 2008 – 10:40 IST

Low and medium-budget films, without much to attract viewers in terms of face-value, are calling the shots. 1920, starring newcomers, picked up after a slow start here. The film enjoys decent reports… In its second weekend, A WEDNESDAY is gathering good speed. The tremendous appreciation has resulted in a fruitful second weekend… In its third weekend, ROCK ON!! is rock-steady. Normally, most films burn out in their second weekend, but there’s no stopping this film… Let’s check out the Friday, Saturday and Sunday figures at Indore:-

Inox
1920: 20,500; 19,200; 36,800.
A Wednesday [2nd wknd]: 6,100; 8,400; 12,600.
Rock On!! [3rd wknd]: 10,100; 17,700; 33,400.

PVR
1920: 28,900; 46,200; 55,200.
A Wednesday [2nd wknd]: 15,570; 24,200; 40,000.
Rock On!! [3rd wknd]: 22,800; 46,300; 46,000.

Adlabs
1920: 25,100; 46,400; 53,700.
A Wednesday [2nd wknd]: 12,700; 16,600; 34,900.
Rock On!! [3rd wknd]: 19,000; 30,200; 48,500.

Velocity
1920: 16,900; 24,100; 46,300.
A Wednesday [2nd wknd]: 14,200; 17,400; 46,500.
Rock On!! [3rd wknd]: 4,450; 12,900; 14,500.

Dionysiac 14 September 2008
11:10:43 pm

IBOS:Poor start for Last Lear, 1920, Ru Ba Ru

Amongst the recent releases of recent past, only Rock On has managed to fare with good collections off the strength of the multiplex turnover.

This past week the release of the English language film on stagecraft, titled Last Lear featuring Amitabh Bachchan, opened to a poor response over the weekend barring a handful of multiplexes. The PVR released film is on a limited release over the country and collections look to be minimal.

The other release, a horror genre hindi film, 1920 has also not managed to score with opening collections being tepid in most places. It is being touted as a ‘mini’ Phoonk, but Phoonk being itself a mini grosser does not bode too well for its collections picking up.

Ru Ba Ru opened with collections in the 5-10% range.

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
12:36:45 am

Delhi Bomb Blasts Hit Business Badly

The bomb blasts in Delhi on Saturday have hit business badly in the Delhi/NCR region. Other metroes around the country also saw business dipping but not as much.

Multiplexes had to reimburse around 50 lakhs to moviegoers on Saturday to those who had advanced booked the evening and nights shows around Delhi/NCR.

On Sunday business was 50% lower than it should be it in Delhi/NCR while other metroes showed 15-20% lower business. Exhibitors expect business to be affected for 3-4 weeks while the horrifying bomb blasts are still fresh in the memory of moviegoers.

jayshah 15 September 2008
12:52:05 am

som well summed up.

Glad to see it seems like Ghajini will be the first biggie to suffer at the hands of profit-loss theory!

manoj16_391 15 September 2008
01:22:40 am

Som,
i dont think anyone shud have any doubts about trending theory now

manoj16_391 15 September 2008
01:28:38 am

gabber,
JTYJN,JA and now RO r the only films that have found universal acceptance (in 2008,so far).The rest r just what u call “poop” films.

manoj16_391 15 September 2008
01:42:48 am

Som,
“Singh Is Kinng Emerges Highest Revenue Earner Ever”

do these figures indicate the distributor’s share ?

ILG 15 September 2008
05:25:02 am

Re:Simple thing is that a movie which had earnd 75 cr is superhit whether it has doubled the cost or not /or whther it has trended the way some one want it to trend or not.
As this number gives it a status to call a superhit.
And please donot apply 30 cr+ movie logic to 75+cr movie.

That is as ridiculous as it gets and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of basic economics. A 75 crore movie is a huge grosser and a big revenue collector ( wouldnt say ‘earner’). But thats about it. When one gets to the nitty gritty of money making, it still has to play by the established ruled and criteria. Its more an indictment of the greed and short sightedness of the makers than the movie.
Because given the makret capacity, there is only so much that a movie with a certain degree of acceptance can make.
Trending theory in box office terms is as close to an absolute as one can get. One can dismiss it but only at the peril of inviting derision and riducle. And rightly so.

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
05:59:15 am

“Som,
“Singh Is Kinng Emerges Highest Revenue Earner Ever”

do these figures indicate the distributor’s share ?”

Manoj:In case of OSO,it could be the total revenue Eros which brought the distribution right from Red Chillies earned from all sources.Same thing applies to SIK as well but the only difference is Studio 18 the original distributor has sold the distribution right to different sub-distributors in each circuits in India instead of releasing the film by themselves,hence the 41 cr share from theatrical collections in India will be that of the sub-distributors who are the last men standing in the chain not studio 18.The revenue from Overseas and other rights as BOI mentioned will go straight to Studio 18 and then you can add the revenue Studio 18 might have got by selling the distribution right in India to the sub distributors in each circuit.

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
06:02:24 am

Lukewarm opening in Mumbai for The Last Lear

An Amitabh Bachchan film usually draws audiences and gets a good opening at the box-office here irrespective of its quality. But his latest – The Last Lear – met with initial disappointment as it opened with a dismal 20 per cent collection.

The film by director Rituparno Ghosh is in English, limiting its audience. The other factor for its poor show on the opening day could be that it was Onam Friday and people in Mumbai are busy with the ongoing Ganesh festival. The 11-day fest is celebrated with much gaiety and fervour across Maharashtra.

In comparison to The Last Lear, Vikram Bhatt’s horror movie 1920, which does not boast of a big star cast, raked in better revenues. Its opening day collection stood at 38 pe rcent.

The collections of the Big B starrer may dip further Sunday when Mumbai will be in a state of frenzy as thousands throng the streets and participate in processions to immerse Ganesh idols in the sea.

However, Planman Motion Pictures, which has produced the The Last Lear, is hopeful that the collections may improve from Monday.

“This is what is my expectation,” Planman Motion Pictures CEO S.S. Bhattacharya told IANS.

But Bollywood trade circles are not too enthusiastic about The Last Lear, which also stars Preity Zinta and Arjun Rampal.

“It is a niche film meant for the elite. In spite of that, considering its modest budget, it is not going to be a losing proposition,” said a Bollywood trade analyst.

The Last Lear is based on Utpal Dutt’s Bengali play Aajker Shahjahan. It is shot in theatrical style and Amitabh is seen as a whimsical Shakespearean actor who is drawn into the world of movies.

The film had run into trouble in Mumbai after Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray took umbrage at Amitabh’s wife, actress-turned-politician Jaya Bachchan’s alleged “anti-Marathi” remarks. He called for a ban on the screening of all films starring any member of the Bachchan family.

The premiere of The Last Lear in Mumbai was cancelled after MNS activists attacked the cinema hall where it was to be screened. However, the MNS called off its agitation on Thursday after the Bachchans tendered an apology.

Tango 15 September 2008
06:56:35 am

The Last Lear has had an ordinary start in Bombay, but is good at select multiplexes of other circuits (at least on the first two days).

Achilles 15 September 2008
10:54:07 am

BOI has given a good post on how OSO and SIK are big hits at the BO even with astronomical prices … the revenue breakups and chart fully justifies the verdict they have given on the theatrical run on the two – OSO a blockbuster and SIK a Superhit.

Of cource OSO is a bigger winner than SIK coz it managed to trend well even after a historic record breaking opening – where the underperformance of SIK actually is.

Btw, this again shows the amount of high revenues generated by the biggies outside the theatrical run – OSO had 36 crores revenue from music/satellite/DVD rights … and SIK got 46 crores for the same!

ILG – i think u has got the exact answer that u had asked so many times on the economics of OSO and why is is a Blockbuster inspite of its high price.

Jay – Lets not forget that around 35 crores will be rcovered by ghajni from other music/satellite/vdv rights .. around 55 crores wud be needed revenue from worldwide theatrical run which is not that a big task … provided it does well at overseas … i think 60-62 crores wud be enough to get a Hit tag for ghajni … and if it opens big and trends well then no reason why it cant go beyond D2/OSO’s 85 crores hauls.

PS – The only problem with BOI’s report is that they have misquoted as Kites being sold … but the 120 crores deal has actually fallen through (much like JA’s 90 crores deal which might again be a boon for a movie … who knows!)

Tango 15 September 2008
11:13:54 am

Ach bhai Ghajini has been sold at 6 crores more than SIK (71 crores) so it should earn plus 6 for a hit that is 66 cr, apart from folowing the trending theory

Achilles 15 September 2008
11:15:37 am

With Billo Barber not coming this year … its a one movie deal for Aamir/SRK/Hrithik this year … even with CCTC and KI postponed, even Akshay wud be having one hit (apart from a Flop) in 08.

RNBDJ will be following a CDI kind of release strategy and try to emulate similar success …so the onus is on Ghajni to break SIK’s opening and be the biggest grosser of 08.

Achilles 15 September 2008
11:17:07 am

Tango Bhai – is the 90 crores deal reports for Ghajni not true?

Tango 15 September 2008
11:22:45 am

I have it as 71 crore for the worldwide distribution rights. 91 crore must be inclusive of all the rights.

Just like if we add the 13 cr music rights for SIK it becomes 78 cr and so on..

rks 15 September 2008
11:35:01 am

Different sources have different numbers for a movie.

Bollywood crosses the Rs100 Cr barrier

Releasing soon: PE funds for movies

Vipul has moved on!

Have movie rights crossed the Rs100-crore mark?

Asin’s London Dreams sold for Rs 120 cr

Tango 15 September 2008
11:38:52 am

London dreams has been sold for 100 crores.

BTW RKS, its very bad time for movies as Navdurga starts as also Pitrapaksh, while Ramzan is going on.

rks 15 September 2008
11:49:02 am

Tango: Agree.

How much was SIK sold to Studio 18? Any press release?

I have seen 60, 62,65, 72,80?

60

62

80

@BOI 65

@TOI 71.3

Tango 15 September 2008
12:00:25 pm

RKS- Komal has given it as 65 cr.

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
12:11:54 pm

The Last Lear fails to impress!

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
12:14:32 pm

Rediff’s BO:Of the three films that released last week, Vikram Bhatt’s 1920 was the only one which fared better than the others. The other two — The Last Lear and Ru Ba Ru flopped

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
06:51:24 pm

Even Singh is Kinng loses for some distributors

Singh is Kinng has lost a few crores for some distributors which bought the film for steep prices. The same was reported for movies like Race, Sarkar Raj and other big and small ‘profitable’ movies where too some subdistributors claim to have lost certain odd amounts, however in the case of SIK this aspect has not been covered as commonly in the conventional trade circles.

In Mumbai city/suburbs for example, SIK went from around 7 crores net opening collection to near 10 lakhs after week 4, quite a steep drop. Ramesh Sippy’s distribution outlet, which acquired the film’s distribution rights in the Mumbai territory from IFC excluding the city/suburbs for a sum of Rs 9.5 crore is expected to lose 1.5-2 crores on SIK.

On the other hand the film was stabler in Punjab, Delhi and UP areas and earned overall more than the likes of comparably budgeted and bigger mounted films like Jodhaa Akbar. And barring a flurry of big releases by end of year, it will be a top grosser candidate.

All the same, SIK shows how even ’successful’ films can be ‘flops’ for distributors at times.

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
11:35:34 pm

Weekly collections on BOI

Dionysiac 15 September 2008
11:38:18 pm

Yuvraaj First Teaser From Sunday

jayshah 16 September 2008
12:56:08 am

So distribution theory is finished now. It is all about making a large pot of money – and now even a territory like Mumbai is “allowed” to incur a significant loss and the film is still called a hit! Lets kick one bad theory out the door and let another one enter! At least the good thing is – distribution price means absolutely nothing now!

rockstar 16 September 2008
04:35:04 am

lol jay this is the transparency and accountability

first teaser of yuvraaj is looking good

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:21:50 am

Trade Espresso: Up and down

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:48:53 am

Midweek: ‘Rock On’ 21/22 cr. nett, ‘1920′ 3.10 cr. nett, ‘Wednesday’ 5.25 cr. nett

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:50:50 am

Rock On is super steady!!This weekend seems to be in the range of 4-5 cr which is excellent.WOM has worked and how!!Wednesday has done well too..

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
10:09:43 am

Businessofcinema on Singh is Kinng sets benchmarks for India distribution

rks 16 September 2008
10:33:38 am

Mumbai minus Mumbai city – 10
CP – 2
WB – 1.65
Punjab – 5.30

Total 18.95cr.

Remaining Mumbai City, Delhi/UP,Mysore, Nizam, Rajashthan, CP.

music

“Times Music’s newly launched label Junglee has bagged the music rights for Rs 135 million (Rs 13.5 crores), which includes Rs 35 million (Rs 3.5 crores) for promotion and marketing. “

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
10:47:45 am

Nizam has been sold for 1.65 cr as well, Mysore 1.30 cr and Bihar something around .90 cr.Delhi/Up and Mumbai city have been kept by Studio 18.No idea about Rajasthan and the rest of India

BTW rks, OSO’s Mumbai circuit excluding Mumbai city and suburbs was reportedly sold for 9 cr, so in that case the distributor would have made 2-3 cr profit on the investment.Is this really good enough to be called as anything more than a Hit at max.?I certainly don’t think so

rks 16 September 2008
10:53:54 am

Dion:

Bucks Sans The Bang

Television`s filmy woes

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
11:06:22 am

Thanks rks for the links! Insightful Articles!Seriously these ongoing claims of movies being sold for astronomical prices have started to puzzle me more than anything else.Are they able to recover the investment or not is a mystery?And the criteria followed by these Trade people to classify movies with different ratings.No one is gonna come up with a definite answer

rks 16 September 2008
11:15:17 am

It is not just Corporate houses are paying big amount; Rights for satellite are astronomical and one of the links make a case that Television can not recover more than 6-7 crore (end of 07).

jayshah 16 September 2008
11:37:39 am

Using BOI’s Nett grosses for territories & there relationship for distribution share/nett gross (~55%) i.e. distributors pick up 55% of theatrical revenue & exhibitors 45% the following can be deduced:

CP:
Selling Price = 2.00Cr
Nett = 3.00Cr (4 weeks, 4th week = 0.15Cr)
DS = 3.00*55% = 1.65Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make loss on SIK

Bengal:
Selling Price = 1.65Cr
Nett = 2.42Cr (4 weeks, 4th week = 0.06Cr)
DS = 2.42*55% = 1.33Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make loss on SIK

Punjab + CI
Selling Price = 5.30Cr
Nett = 11.31Cr
DS = 11.31*55% = 6.22Cr
Conclusion : Distributors make profit on SIK

From these 3 territories SIK has made a paultry profit of 0.25Cr for distributors. Maybe tad more taking into account week 5 onwards but hardly anything!

Mumbai (excluding city)
Selling Price = 10.00Cr
Nett = 24.66Cr (all of Mumbai territory)
DS = 24.66*55% = 13.56Cr
Conclusion : Distributors (all) are in profit but one must account for the selling price of city/suburbs which studio 18 hold…

rks 16 September 2008
12:01:07 pm

Jay:The Badshah of Bollywood

“But Nahta makes a point: “Some distributors who bought the film from Indian Films, to whom Vipul Shah had sold it, have posted losses. However, that’s nothing compared to the success that Singh is Kinng has seen.” Sources say that Ramesh Sippy Productions, which acquired the film’s distribution rights for the Mumbai territory for Rs 9.5 crore, has lost Rs 1.5 crore. “But Singh is Kinng,” adds Nahta, “is a clear winner.””

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
12:06:10 pm

As various sources have quoted,10 cr is the distribution price for Mumbai circuit minus Mumbai city

jayshah 16 September 2008
01:06:22 pm

The key point to stress is it is “clearcut” that the territory that SIK has outperformed in is Punjab. Here the movie is barely making some decent profits! I haven’t even taken into account the print/publicity costs here which I assume are not included in the selling price!

So if Punjab barely conjures up a profit, how can the other territories be anything but losing propositions.

Reasons for this debate
1) I do not give a cent to distribution theory
2) I am helping those who forever long have lived and died by this sword but seem to have forgotten their ways all of a sudden! Call it an exercise in deconstructing this ridiculous theory
3) In the end “trade” is calling a film that is probably “breaking even” a superhit and at the same time calling another film (Sarkar raj) a flop with the same “break even” result!

jayshah 16 September 2008
01:09:00 pm

Indeed comparing SIK (75Cr nett) with SR (35Cr) nett is unfair. But then again the budget of SR was considerably less too. In other words, the ratios here are considerably being used unfairly by our trade experts!

ILG 16 September 2008
01:42:37 pm

Jay,
Great work with the break up of SIK.
Unfortunately most of the trade pundits and some fans too forget that the two ends of the alimentary tract serve different purposes. And that you cannot use either end to talk.
And again the quoted DP prices are suspect too. So, one cant ut much faith in that. Mr. Nahata is as bad as the rest.

johnnybrutal 16 September 2008
07:31:06 pm

“Akshay has given 6 blockbusters in last 25 months”

huh?

rudresh 16 September 2008
09:17:10 pm

Limitations of Ratio Analysis

Misleading Results: In the absence of absolute data, the result may be infact genrally misleading. For example, the gross profit of two movies is 25%. Whereas the profit earned by one is just Rs. 5,000 and sales are Rs. 20,000 and profit earned by the other one is Rs. 10,00,000 and sales are Rs. 40,00,000. Even the profitability of the two movies are same but the magnitude of their business is quite different.

So main thing donot just focus on ratios whether it is the profitabilty ratios or the trending ratios

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:17:19 pm

This is how SIK’s economics would look like:

Mumbai(minus Mumbai city):DP of 10 cr
Collections:14-15 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.8 cr
Loss:Approx.2 cr

Punjab+CI:5.30 cr
Collections:12 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.6.6 cr
Profit:Approx.1.3 cr

East Bengal:1.65 cr
Collections:2.50 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.40 cr
Loss:Apporx.0.25 cr

Cp Berar:2 cr
Collections:Approx.3.10 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.70 cr
Loss:Aprox.0.30 cr

Nizam:1.65 cr
Collections:Approx.3.50 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.90 cr
Profit:Approx.0.25 cr

Mysore:1.30 cr
Collections:2.80 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.1.55 cr
Profit:Approx.0.25 cr

Total distribution price from above circuits:21.9 cr
Total collections:Approx.39 cr
Distributor’s share:Approx.21.5 cr

If we look out here, the distributors are hardly making any profit,at best breaking even.Had the distributor been one single person for every territories,then everything would have been evened out eventually i.e the profit making circuits out grossing the loss making ones.But it is not to be the case.So what criteria these trade people follow?Do they have different criteria and formulae for each film?How a SR giving a distributor share of close to 19 cr at distribution price of 17-18 cr is called as a Flop and a SIK almost doing exactly the same is a Super hit?The sword should be out for other biggies like Race,Welcome and OSO as well.Do these movies really qualify to be called as bonafide Super hits and Blockbusters?One thing I am sure,these 2X,3X or whatever X formulae are not being at play.

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:21:29 pm

Overseas Box office:’SIK’ exceeds $ 6 million in Overseas

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:24:39 pm

Dull Period Proves To Be Good

The normally dull period at the box office of Ramadan has proved to be good this year for the film industry. Films like Phoonk, Mumbai Meri Jaan, Rock On!!, A Wednesday and last week’s 1920 have all proved to be successes of varying degrees.

All the films are small budget apart from Rock On!! which is a medium budget affair. The Ramadan period has always seen small films trying to make a mark at the box office but without much luck but it’s been a totally different story this year with five successes and chances that likes of Welcome To Sajjanpur and Hulla could add to the list before the Eid releases Drona and Kidnap arrive.

rks 16 September 2008
09:40:19 pm

Rudresh: You do Dupont analysis in that case.
Link1

rudresh 16 September 2008
09:48:14 pm

Rks with Dupont model the size,similarity condition still privails.

rudresh 16 September 2008
09:55:25 pm

If you are not in good in absolute, use ratios :Use ratio.
But in real world absolute also matters ,generally more than the raios.

Dionysiac 16 September 2008
09:57:35 pm

Komal Nahata on Film Business:

Film viewing is an experience after which one feels inclined to pronounce a judgement. Whatever the kind of film, its genre, whether good, bad or ugly, people can’t refrain from declaring what they thought of a film. They’ll discuss the film with family, close friends or colleagues at their work-place. ‘Hit’, ‘flop’, ‘super-hit’ are terms usually used by cinegoers to describe a film they’ve seen.
But while these terms are quite loosely employed by the general public, words such as the above are actually very technical in nature with specific meanings. More often than not, when laymen employ the above terms to describe a film, they use them to describe their feelings about the film, about how they liked or disliked it.

The film trade, however, treats a film as a ‘hit’ or a ‘flop’ according to its earnings vis-à-vis its cost. Whereas personal judgements can be very subjective, money is the only tool to categorise films into hits, flops, semi-hits, disasters, super-hits etc.
A film is treated as a hit by film trade analysts only if it more than doubles the investment of the distributor. If the cost of a film to a distributor is not recovered after the film has completed its run, it is termed a flop. Not many are aware that the cost of a film to its distributor – and not to the producer – is compared with its earnings in the distributor’s circuit for arriving at the categorisation of films as hits, flops etc.

For the uninitiated, a producer is the one who makes the film by arranging for the finances, stars and technicians and their dates. He sells it to various distributors, one for each circuit or territory. The buyer, or distributor as he is called, has the right to release the film in only the territory for which he has acquired the distribution rights. Thus, for example, the person who buys a film for the Bombay circuit will release it in cinemas falling in the jurisdiction of Bombay city and suburbs, parts of Maharashtra (like Pune, Aurangabad, Malegaon etc.), Gujarat, Saurashtra and parts of Karnataka (like Hubli, Belgaum etc.). The circuits for the purposes of film business have nothing to do with state boundaries we know. For instance, although Central Province was the term used to describe today’s Madhya Pradesh in pre-Independence India, even today C.P.

Berar is the nomenclature used in the film industry to describe the territory comprising parts of Maharashtra (like Amravati, Akola etc.) and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (like Raipur, Jabalpur, Bhilai).
The price (MG or Minimum Guarantee) which the distributor pays for acquiring a film’s distribution rights, usually for 5, 7 or 10 years is the major chunk of his investment in the film. Since Bombay is the biggest territory, its price is considered the ‘ratio’ of the film. All other circuits are sold as percentages of the ratio. Thus, for instance, C.P. Berar fetches a price that’s 30 – 40% of Bombay’s price or, in other words, 30 – 40% of the ratio of a film. Rajasthan is 20 to 25% of the ratio. The other two components of the distributor’s investment, besides the MG price, are the cost of prints and publicity.

As against the old system of distribution in which the producer used to give the distributor quota prints alongwith the distribution rights, today the cost of prints is borne by the distributor. The publicity in his territory is also to be done by him. Thus, the cost to the distributor is the total of all the three aforesaid costs (MG royalty plus print cost plus publicity cost).

For example, the total investment of the Bombay distributor in the recently released Qayamat for Bombay was Rs. 2.75 crore. If the film would’ve done a business of Rs. 2.75 crore, it would have been termed an average fare. If it would not even have recovered its cost, it would have been termed a flop or, if the business fell far short of the investment of Rs. 2.75 crore, even a disaster. But if Devgan Software, the Bombay distributor, does a business of Rs. 5.5 crore, the film would be referred to as ‘A’ class or, in other words, a semi-hit. Business of more than Rs. 5.5 crore would entitle it to be referred to as a hit (‘A1’).

And if Qayamat goes on to touch the figure of Rs. 6.5 or 7.5 crore, it would be construed to be a super-hit (class ‘AA’). If it does more than even that, it would qualify to be a blockbuster, depending on how much is the final figure of business done. In reality, the film is expected to touch Rs. 3 to 3.25 crore, which would make it a commission earner. A film becomes a commission earner when it covers its cost plus 25% more than that. Twenty-five percent is the industry norm for calculating the distributor’s expenses for releasing a film. Between a commission earner and a semi-hit is the nomenclature ‘overflow film’. Such a film covers its cost as well as 25% commission and goes on to do more business.

Every rupee earned after the entire commission of the distributor is recovered, is to be shared with the producer, usually equally. That is to say, the distributor keeps 50 paise of every rupee earned after his commission is earned and gives the remaining 50 paise to the producer as his share of overflow. Hence, the term ‘overflow film’. When film industry trade papers predict the fate on the day of a film’s release, what they actually do is estimate the likely business of the film through its entire run of 5, 7 or 10 years and compare that with the price for which the said film was sold.

Rakesh Roshan’s forthcoming Koi…Mil Gaya has been sold at Rs. 3 crore per major territory. Which means, a distributor of a major circuit will have to invest about Rs. 3.50 to 3.75 crore in the Hrithik-Preity starrer, taking into account the cost of about 50 prints and likely publicity for the big-budget film. Only if it does a business of about Rs. 7.50 crore will it qualify to be termed a semi-hit. Further, if it is to be called a blockbuster, the Rakesh Roshan flick will have to do a business of at least Rs. 10 to 11 crore.
Interestingly, although the distributor’s revenues depend on whether or not the public likes a film, a producer can make his money on the day of release itself, if he has been able to pre-sell all the rights. Technically and theoretically, therefore, even if a film were to bomb on release, the producer would sit pretty with some crores or lakhs in his bank account because the risk is that of the distributors of the various territories. This is generally true in the case of top-line producers of big-budget star-cast films who have successful track records. For them, their productions are hits and super-hits or even blockbusters on the day of release itself. For example, although Subhash Ghai’s Yaadein was a flop in the distributors’ hands, the showman’s company, Mukta Arts, made a hefty profit in the disaster as the film was pre-sold to distributors across the world. But for the majority of the producers who can’t pre-sell their films, the risk is more theirs than that of their distributors who may not buy the film on MG royalty basis.
The other popular forms of distribution include the advance basis and the pure commission basis. Under the advance system of release, a distributor advances a pre-determined amount to the producer but if he can’t recover that amount from the theatres, the producer has to refund the shortfall after a fixed period, usually a year after release. Under the pure commission system of release, the distributor may advance nothing to the producer who would even give him the prints for releasing in the cinemas.

The distributor releases the film in the producer’s account and remits the shares, after deducting his commission (which may be 7.5%, 10% or 15%, depending on the arrangement between the producer and the distributor), to the producer.
So, next time, you use the words ‘hit’ and ‘flop’, be sure, you use them in the right context. If not, the better way to describe your opinion would be to say whether you liked a film, hated it, loved it or adored it.

SEPARATE BOX
Circuit: The area for which a distributor buys the distribution rights for a film for a period of (generally) 5 or 7 or 10 years.

Ratio: The price for which a film is sold for Bombay circuit. Prices for all other circuits are determined as a fixed percentage of the ratio. For example, Delhi-U.P. is usually 80 to 85% of the ratio. But in the case of action films, which have a bigger market in North India, Delhi-U.P. may be sold for 100% of the ratio.

Flop: If a film can’t even cover its investment by the distributor, it is termed a flop.

Average: If a film manages to simply recover its cost, it is an average fare.

Commission Earner: When a film recovers the investment and, over and above that, gets in revenues of 25% more, it is termed a commission earner. Thus, if the distributor’s total investment in a film is Rs. 2 crore, and it does a business of Rs. 2.50 crore, it is termed a commission earner. 25% of Rs. 2 crore is Rs. 50 lakh which is the amount of commission which belongs to the distributor to cover his expenses of releasing the film.

Overflow: When a film crosses the commission mark, the revenues thereafter are to be shared between the producer and distributor. The producer gets a share in the ‘overflow’ business, generally fifty-fifty. Such sharing makes the film an overflow film. Overflow films can be further categorised as under, depending on the quantum of overflow.

Semi-Hit: A film which does a business that is double the distributor’s investment in it, is termed a semi-hit. In such a case, the producer gets handsome overflow from the distributor.

Hit: If a film more than doubles its investment in the distributor’s hands, it is deemed to be a hit.

Super-Hit: If the returns on a film are much more than double the investment, it is termed a super-hit.

Blockbuster: Returns are almost triple the investment.

rks 16 September 2008
10:05:45 pm

With Dupont or similar disaggregation analysis (breaking the ratios further), you find out how you used your assets/resources. Not a full proof in stating absolutely but it is better than simple profitability analysis.

ROI = Profit/Budget = (profit/DP) * (DP/Budget)

1. First would tell how was cinema run.
2. How much table profit was made by producers.

ps: You can further break them.

rudresh 16 September 2008
10:06:10 pm

And basic which is considered in every field is that when ever some one presents you the relative differences alwasy ask a Question”FROM WHAT?”.Because that will provide the exact picture.

Achilles 16 September 2008
10:36:31 pm

RKS – thanks a bunch for the links on TV rights and Bucks sans Bang … those two have lot of information and numbers … i think they deserve a seperate thread altogether.

rudresh 16 September 2008
11:53:01 pm

1920 A success

Dionysiac 17 September 2008
12:08:12 am

Business Talk With Taran Adarsh:Business affected

Just when everything was going right, with ROCK ON!! and A WEDNESDAY consolidating their status and 1920 trying to settle down, the bomb blasts in Delhi on Saturday evening threw a spanner. The unfortunate, dastardly attacks in the capital sent shivers across the nation. It has been noticed time and again that such unfortunate attacks hit film business hard. The fear factor keeps prospective ticket buyers away from plexes.

1920 had a decent start at Delhi and Mumbai specifically, but the blasts in Delhi on Saturday and Ganpati visarjan in Mumbai/Maharashtra on Sunday slowed its business at these two metros specifically. The opening weekend nett was approx. Rs. 3.10 crores and I am sure, it would’ve been more robust had the blasts not occurred.

But 1920 seems to be in comfort zone. Besides theatrical revenue, Bhatt and his partners hope to tap the international markets by dubbing the film in various foreign languages, which could open the doors for so many films that have a strong story to tell, but not strong face-value to attract the Mumbai-based Overseas distributors. Besides, Bhatt also has Satellite and Home Video rights.

Back to 1920’s theatrical business. Monday was at par with Friday and at places, better than Friday. Most films fall below the Friday level on Monday, but in this case, the collections were maintaining fine. The film is slowly and steadily inching past the ‘Average’ box-office status.

I am not surprised by the non-response to RU-BA-RU. The promotions should begin almost two months prior to release and should get more and more aggressive as the release date draws closer. But RU-BA-RU came without any hype whatsoever. The makers should’ve pushed the film hard, but the scant awareness only reflected in its business. It’s a fiasco!

The fate of THE LAST LEAR doesn’t surprise me. The film hit headlines days before its release… actually, THE LAST LEAR got a lot of mileage in the media. People were hoping that the film would open well due to the front-page importance in newspapers and prime time prominence on TV, but the opening was thanda. Released at a handful of cities, the film didn’t even fetch rave reviews, which normally comes as a booster for art house cinema. In fact, the ratings ranged from average to below average.

The theatrical business of THE LAST LEAR has been lukewarm, despite the presence of Amitabh Bachchan, Arjun Rampal and Preity Zinta in its cast. One of the reasons could be that India is yet to open up to English language films, starring desis and also helmed by desis. Besides, THE LAST LEAR, in my individualistic opinion, is too abstract. Expectedly, even the plexes wore a deserted look, shattering the myth that art house cinema always finds its supporters at plexes.

jayshah 17 September 2008
01:13:29 am

rudresh – I think som and myself have answered questions here. Clearly SIK is either making a tiny profit or breaking even or even a losing proposition for distributors. Exactly the same as Sarkar Raj. Yet we have this inconsistency.

It is quite clear now that distribution theory is not working and probably hasn’t been for some time. Good riddance I say. Because I bet OSO, Welcome, Race and all were not meeting the below criteria of Komal, BOI or other trade analysts!

komal – “Super-Hit: If the returns on a film are much more than double the investment, it is termed a super-hit.”

Is SIK doing this? No – so why call it superhit?

What is happening is obvious. The distribution theory is “used” to bring down certain films if and when people choose to and then is done away with for other films. Dubious, inconsistent, unfair and downright plain wrong.

Of course absolute matters – the point is absolute should matter for everyone – not cherry picking!

som – thanks for full break out. Overall hardly a success “trade” wise so the theory is out the door for SIK, Race and other biggies. What is being used is absolute like rudresh is saying. So you can no longer call it “trade” anymore because no “trade” in their right mind would call a losing proposition superhit!

amitk79 17 September 2008
01:16:41 am

sab paise ka khel hai!!

manoj16_391 17 September 2008
02:44:22 am

Jayshah,
a very good comment.

“The distribution theory is “used” to bring down certain films if and when people choose to and then is done away with for other films.”

true.

manoj16_391 17 September 2008
02:47:36 am

Som,
“This is how SIK’s economics would look like:………..”

doodh ka doodh aur paani ka paani kar daala !

rudresh 17 September 2008
06:40:35 am

i can only say ,what I sai earlier that for me any movie which earn more than certain specific amount is hit ,suerhit for me.
like any movie which will do 100 crore will be blockbuster this day and simlarly anyone do more than 75 cr will be superhit.
I also think that if drona earns more than 60 cr its hit and 75 cr its superhit for me india.and this is even more true from my end,some one from mass.

imgr8 17 September 2008
07:47:39 pm

“Bhumika Tewari AVP Programming Fun Cinemas says “The box office collection last week was not up to the mark. Two films which are ruling at the box office are Rock On and Bachna Ae Haseeno.”

LINK

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