jayshah

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Rock On!!

Rock On surprised the industry again one week after Phoonk after taking a superb opening at the box office. Farhan Akhtar’s acting debut, a contemporary theme and a very unique musical score coupled with an aggressive marketing campaign gave the film a good chance for a decent opening, but the multiplexes ensured a far more elated response over the first weekend. What bodes particularly well for Rock On vs. Phoonk is the weekdays prospered further more, suggesting Rock On is in line for a long and fruitful run at the box office.

A predominantly multiplex release, the film netted collections in the region of 9.5-10.0Cr (comparisons with Phoonk, TZP, CDI & JTYJN). The stand out collections were Mumbai (2.66Cr), a huge Pune number (0.83Cr) and Delhi (0.96Cr). With competition less apparent in coming weeks, the film should be on target to net at least 25Cr…the second week should give a clearer indication of where the film is headed for in the long run.

The audience response has been strong and critical response amongst the best of the year. All this points to a “mini” wave as seen with films like RDB, LRM, CDI, TZP & JTYJN in the recent past.

C Kkompany

The film netted a small sum of 2.9-3.1Cr which is decent at best. Chances of further considerable collections are low considering the competition, poor word of mouth and poor critical response.

Chamku

Considering the film does star a well known star in Bobby Deol, the collections of around 1.5-1.7Cr are a disastrous return. The film looks to be an outright flop with extremely poor collections and little chance of improvement.

Past Releases

Phoonk

The film fell as expected in week two – specifically due to heavy flood of releases with similar budget ranges.

Phoonk Week 2 vs Phoonk Week 1
70% Mumbai means Phoonk fell by 70% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 70%
Ahmedabad 77%
Himmatnagar 7%
Nasik 82%
Delhi 71%
Noida 66%
Kaushambi 66%
Faridabad 73%
Gurgaon 55%
Indore 69%
Nagpur 56%
Jaipur 59%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 71%
The film has generally fallen uniformly across India by 55-75% across most centres. A significant drop overall.

The Phoonk Week 1 total for the above centres = 3.23Cr (ignoring Himmatnagar & Nasik)
The Phoonk Week 2 total for the above centres = 0.95Cr (ignoring Himmatnagar & Nasik)

This means that Phoonk’s Week 2 total is 29% of Phoonk’s Week 1 total (0.95/3.23 = 29%)

Using my own Phoonk Week 1 Total of 6.4-6.7Cr, Phoonk’s Week 2 Total = 29% * (6.4-6.7) = 1.9-2.0Cr

Phoonk 2 Week Total = 6.4-6.7Cr(Week 1) + 1.9-2.0Cr(Week 2) = 8.3 – 8.7Cr

Verdict – Above Average

Considering the much better than expected opening week and just about passable week two trend, the film is an above average performer overall and looks to be headed for a tidy 10Cr – which all things considered (budget, genre, RGV’s recent track record) is a good return. The audience response beyond the first few days has been decent but not nearly as strong as one will see with Rock On!!

Mumbai Meri Jaan

The film fell in its second week, failing to capitalize on decent word of mouth. An unfortunate release date here, the makers would not have envisaged Phoonk and Rock On to click as well as they have. The netted around 0.7-0.8Cr after a fall of 70% across India to take its two week total to 3.1-3.6Cr from India. A below average performer overall.

Bachna Ae Haseeno

The third week of Yashraj’s Bachna Ae Haseeno is quite similar to the second week. The film is steady overall.

BEH Week 3 vs BEH Week 2
68% Mumbai means BEH fell by 68% in Mumbai in Week 3

Mumbai 68%
Himmatnagar 59%
Nasik 70%
Delhi 49%
Noida 26%
Kaushambi 8%
Faridabad 65%
Gurgaon 39%
Gorakhpur 25%
Aligarh 54%
Agra 9%
Indore 25%
Nagpur 78%
Guwahati 63%
Aurangabad 38%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 53%
Week 3 drop = 58%
Overall the film has done very well in Delhi and neighbouring areas, whereas Mumbai despite a great opening week has fallen more significantly. Overall the film is steady considering the heavy flow of films in multiplexes.

The BEH Week 1 total for the above centres = 8.11Cr (ignoring any centre falling greater than 75%)
The BEH Week 3 total for the above centres = 1.57Cr (ignoring any centre falling greater than 75%)

This means that BEH’s Week 3 total is 19% of BEH’s Week 1 total (1.57/8.11 = 19%)

Using my own BEH Week 1 Total of 21.0-22.0Cr, BEH’s Week 3 Total = 19% * (21.0-22.0) = 4.0-4.2Cr

BEH 3 Week Total = 21.0-22.0Cr(Week 1) + 9.8-10.2Cr(Week 2) + 4.0-4.2Cr(Week 3) = 34.7 – 36.4Cr

Verdict – Semi-Hit

Considering the main market for BEH is the multiplexes, it’s done a fairly decent job of holding firm there despite competition from several movies. Overall the film is settling for a semi-hit rating unless it can get into the 40Cr bracket. A tidy performer overall and a well earned success for Yashraj.

Singh is Kinng

SIK had a very steady 4th week.

SIK Week 4 vs SIK Week 3
66% Mumbai means SIK fell by 66% in Mumbai in Week 4

Mumbai 66%
Jamnagar 73%
Nasik 60%
Delhi 65%
Noida 49%
Gurgaon 33%
Kaushambi 61%
Ghaziabad 61%
Agra 42%
Gorakhpur 53%
Kanpur 48%
Lucknow 45%
Meerut 56%
Moradabad 46%
Varanasi 35%
Aligarh 27%
Allahabad 11%
Bareilly 23%
Dehradun 30%
Jhansi 27%
Muzaffaranagar 53%
Guwahati 57%
Nagpur -6%
Raipur -18%
Indore 52%
Ujjain 43%
Jaipur 11%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 59%
Week 3 drop = 59%
Week 4 drop = 55%
The film’s extra-ordinary run in Delhi/UP, East Punjab & Rajasthan continues with huge numbers especially in East Punjab. The film has lost out more so in Mumbai, Ahmedebad, Pune and southern cities but small centres continue to do rock solid business. It is a distinct trend the film has followed since the release.

The SIK Week 1 total for the above centres = 29.16Cr (ignoring any centre falling greater than 75% plus including a 6.2% increase for any 6 day total centre plus ignoring Kolkatta and Chennai)
The SIK Week 4 total for the above centres = 2.21Cr (ignoring any centre falling greater than 75% plus ignoring Kolkatta & Chennai

This means that SIK’s Week 4 total is 8% of SIK’s Week 1 total (2.21/29.16 = 8%)

Using my own SIK Week 1 Total of 40.0-42.0Cr, SIK’s Week 4 Total = 8% * (40.0-42.0) = 3.0-3.2Cr

SIK 4 Week Total = 40.0-42.0Cr(Week 1) + 16.3-17.2Cr(Week 2) + 6.8-7.1(Week 3) + 3.0-3.2Cr(Week 4) = 66.1 – 69.4Cr

Verdict – Hit

Inevitably the film will pass 70Cr range in the coming week, so the film has so to speak “done the crime and paid the time” to earn its hit tag. The film has generally been superb in many small centres and either strong or average in bigger cities depending upon geography. And indeed it is the film to beat in terms of overall opening and final gross for 2008.

2008 – The year so far

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)

February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 56.9 – 59.6Cr (Superhit)

March 2008
Black & White : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Flop)
Race : 55.0 – 58.5Cr (Hit)
1-2-3 : 15.2 – 16.1Cr (Below Average)

April 2008
Khuda Kay Liya : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Above Average)
U Me Aur Hum : 22.5 – 24.5Cr (Below Average)
Krazzy 4 : 20.3 – 21.9Cr (Below Average)
Tashan : 22.4 – 24.0Cr (Flop)

May 2008
Mr White Mr Black : 2.2 – 2.5Cr (Flop)
Bhootnath : 24.7 – 26.6Cr (Average)
Jannat : 27.7 – 29.8Cr (Hit)
Woodstock Villa : 1.7 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Hastey Hastey : 0.8 – 1.0Cr (Flop)

June 2008
Sarkar Raj : 34.9 – 37.2Cr (Below Average)
Aamir : 3.1 – 3.7Cr (Hit – small budget)
Mere Baap Pehle Aap : 20.6 – 21.9Cr (Below Average)
De Taali : 9.0 – 10.2Cr (Flop)
Thoda Pyar Thoda Magic : 21.2 – 22.6Cr (Flop)

July 2008
Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na : 53.3 – 55.0Cr (Blockbuster)
Love Story 2050 : 10.6 – 11.8Cr (Huge disaster)
Mehbooba : 1.5 – 1.8Cr (Flop)
Contract : 2.25 – 2.50Cr (Flop)
Kismat Konnection : 26.0 – 27.4Cr (Below Average)
Mission Istanbul : 7.3 – 7.9Cr (Flop)
Money Hai To Honey Hai : 4.4 – 5.0Cr (Flop)
Ugli Aur Pugli : 7.2 – 8.3Cr (Flop)

August 2008
Singh is Kinng : 66.1 – 69.4Cr (Hit)
Bachna Ae Haseeno : 34.7 – 36.4Cr (Semi-Hit)
God Tussi Great Ho : 12.4 – 13.7Cr (Flop)
Mumbai Meri Jaan : 3.1 – 3.6Cr (Below Average)
Phoonk : 8.3 – 8.7Cr (Above Average)
Maan Gaye Mughal-E-Azam : 1.9 – 2.1Cr (Flop)
Rock On!! : 9.5 – 10.0Cr (Excellent opening week)
C Kkompany : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Poor opening week)
Chamku : 1.5 1.7Cr (Disastrous opening week)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome, Taare Zameen Par

50Cr+
Partner

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
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