JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Mixed opening week haul for Sarkar Raj…
Note all numbers are from Trade Guide
Reporting Methodology
1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios
New Releases
Aamir
Aamir had a poorish opening by all accounts but has improved according to most reports. It has collected around 1.1-1.3Cr from week one and stands a good chance to trend well though the total will be fairly low overall.
Sarkar Raj
To decipher what is a good opening week haul for most biggies is fairly easy. But for movies like Sarkar Raj and to a greater extent a movie like Jodha Akbar it is slightly harder. They are neither your OSO/Welcome’s which provide wholesome entertainment, a fun ride or timepass. They are also neither your Taare Zameen Par’s/Chak De! India’s because these films are probably no less risky but the target audience is smaller in size and budgets smaller. Somewhere in between lays films like Sarkar Raj & Jodha Akbar which have aims to be blockbusters but also do suffer from genre disadvantages and a more shrinking audience compared to OSO/Welcome.
Most reports for Sarkar Raj indicated a slowish start with pick up later on Friday, a good weekend and a significant drop on Monday thereafter. It’s also plausible that weekend business was “great” and the fall in weekdays was even more significant. It’s also plausible that the weekend was good and the weekdays fairly steady at a lower end. Most of these scenarios will be laid to rest in week two.
Sarkar Raj, a sequel to Sarkar, starring Amitabh, Abhishek and Aishwariya has overall gained a significant week one haul BUT one is left a tad disappointed overall. Being a sequel and having a casting coup, plus no major releases since Race and the season of IPL over, the film should have taken a roaring start at the box office [despite its disadvantages of a slightly shrunken audience and its genre – dark themed thriller, plus RGV’s recent debacles] That said in this day and age, a huge release can still rack up well over 20Cr+ which is still a significant sum. It is best to say here, one could have expected more but there is not a sign yet that the film has been rejected. Which will make week two all the more important – much like it was for Jodha Akbar. The caveat here is that WOM on Sarkar Raj is less clear at this point then it was for Jodha Akbar. The results could be different for Sarkar Raj.
Week 1 Sarkar Raj vs Week 1 Jodha Akbar
Mumbai -8% means that Sarkar Raj is 8% LESS than Jodha Akbar in Week 1
Mumbai -8%
Ahmedabad 31%
Himmatnagar -16%
Bhavnagar -3%
Mehsana -19%
Palanpur -39%
Patan -23%
Amboli -28%
Kosamba 46%
Siddpur 9%
Dharmaj -89%
Khedbrahma -194%
Deesa 10%
Visnagar -50%
Baroda 6%
Anand -32%
Surat -50%
Bharuch -17%
Vyara -146%
Valod -156%
Bardoli -28%
Ankleshwar -67%
Navsari -48%
Padra -62%
Dabhoi -56%
Kalol -97%
Vijapur -145%
Balasinor -133%
Dahod -290%
Jamnagar -6%
Rajkot -2%
Bhavnagar -19%
Adipur -59%
Bhuj -136%
Madhapar -60%
Dwarka -137%
Mandvi -202%
Junagadh -64%
Porbandar -65%
Surendranagar -188%
Morvi -76%
Jetpur -193%
Mahuva -78%
Dhoraji -157%
Pune 20%
Kolhapur 5%
Ichalkaranji -11%
Nasik 1%
Goa 19%
Malegaon -24%
Solapur -81%
Sangli 13%
Satara -49%
Miraj -666%
Karad -127%
Islampur -1057%
Wai -83%
Palus -43%
Ashta -1429%
Kopargaon -88%
Sinnar -69%
Ghulewadi -53%
Sangamner -51%
Lasalgaon -81%
Rahuri -74%
Vadgaon -644%
Manchar -15%
Sathe -60%
Hupri -61%
Mangalvedha 0%
Sangola -28%
Nandgaon -53%
Umbraj -70%
Akalkot -43%
Shirrol -88%
Vita -137%
Gadhinglaj -169%
Pandharpur -49%
Hubli 0%
Dharwad 64%
Belgaum -31%
Bijapur -23%
Nippani -61%
Karwar 81%
Bagalkot -16%
Delhi -2%
Noida -11%
Kaushambi 32%
Gurgaon 39%
Faridabad 25%
Aligarh -10%
Ghaziabad 18%
Chandigarh 58%
Lucknow 14%
Kanpur 15%
Moradabad 1%
Meerut -3%
Amritsar -3%
Ludhiana -2%
Dehradun -29%
Allahabad -80%
Hissar 7%
Jalandhar -9%
Ambala 26%
Jammu 31%
Rewari -19%
Patiala -54%
Panchkula -113%
Rohtak -63%
Gorakhpur 5%
Saharanpur -105%
Bareilly -6%
Agra 6%
Muzaffaranagar 26%
Jhansi 3%
Loni 4%
Rishikesh -22%
Varanasi -1%
Amravati 2%
Akola 5%
Nagpur 24%
Raipur 13%
Bhilai -21%
Chandrapur -16%
Jabalpur 5%
Yavatmal -20%
Wardha -16%
Rajnandgaon 1%
Sagar 5%
Durg -9%
Gondia -72%
Bhandara 37%
Parathwada -28%
Balaghat -52%
Karanja -297%
Jalgaon 19%
Bilaspur -75%
Dhule -15%
Korba -27%
Khamgaon -74%
Chhindwara -8%
Pusad -9%
Betul -31%
Jagdalpur -46%
Dhamatari 28%
Raigarh -20%
Burhanpur -84%
Shahada -85%
Khandwa -64%
Champa -36%
Manendragarh -73%
Tilda -17%
Katni 7%
Indore -15%
Bhopal -14%
Ujjain -41%
Ratlam -86%
Mhow -28%
Patiala 69%
Kolkatta 29%
Aurangabad -1679%
Hyderabad -1211%
Latur -2135%
Beed -1939%
Nizamabad -2256%
Vijayawada -600%
Bangalore 18%
Mysore 23%
Davangere -10%
Chennai -22%
Coimbatore -46%
Salem -29%
Vellore -209%
Trivandrum -68%
Calicut -68%
Attingal -188%
Trichur -31%
JA leads in 133 centres
Sarkar Raj leads in 45 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Jodha Akbar = 18.50Cr (ignored any centre with greater than 500% difference)
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Sarkar Raj = 19.45Cr (ignored any centre with greater than 500% difference)
This means that Sarkar Raj is 105% of Jodha Akbar’s total (19.45/18.50 = 105%)
Using my own Jodha Akbar Week 1 total of 23.0Cr (midpoint), Sarkar Raj’s Week 1 = 105% * (23.0) = 24.2Cr
Adding approx 1Cr for Rajasthan we get around 25.2Cr for Sarkar Raj.
A similar exercise with other films yields the following outputs;
Welcome ~ 23.8Cr (using my Welcome figure of 32.0Cr)
Race ~ 25.2Cr (using my Race figure of 33.5Cr)
My week one estimate for Sarkar Raj is 24.0-25.5Cr.
Sarkar Raj 1 Week Total = 24.0-25.5Cr(Week 1) = 24.0 - 25.5Cr
Verdict – Mixed opening week, second week very important
Sarkar Raj’s opening week is indeed mixed. The South and North are good, Bangalore & Delhi being reasonable. Pune is very good too. Ironically, where the movie has probably under-performed is where it was expected to do extra-ordinary business. Mumbai/Ahmedabad have posted below expectations here and a stronger showing here would actually have made the numbers good overall. Andhra Pradesh is under-reported by in large but overall the comparisons should give an ideal range here.
The second week will reveal which direction of grades the film is headed. Anything above a 55% fall suggests the film is at best average (anything more severe requires a lower classification). Continuing at industry average will get the film in 46-48Cr range which is above average overall. 50Cr and above which would require better than industry average trending indicates semi-hit to hit.
Past Releases
Jannat
Jannat added a further 1.0-1.1Cr in its fourth week taking its total to 27.7-29.8Cr. The film is a hit.
Bhootnath
Bhootnath added a further 0.2-0.25Cr in its fifth week taking its total to 24.7-26.6Cr. The film is an average performer.
January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)
February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 56.9 – 59.6Cr (Superhit)
March 2008
Black & White : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Flop)
Race : 55.0 – 58.5Cr (Hit)
1-2-3 : 15.2 – 16.1Cr (Decent week one at best)
April 2008
Khuda Kay Liya : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Above Average)
U Me Aur Hum : 22.5 – 24.5Cr (Below Average)
Krazzy 4 : 20.3 – 21.9Cr (Below Average)
Tashan : 22.4 – 24.0Cr (Disaster)
May 2008
Mr White Mr Black : 2.2 – 2.5Cr (Flop)
Bhootnath : 24.7 – 26.6Cr (Average)
Jannat : 27.7 – 29.8Cr (Hit)
Woodstock Villa : 1.7 – 2.0Cr (Poor opening week)
Hastey Hastey : 0.8 - 1.0Cr (Poor opening week)
June 2008
Sarkar Raj : 24.0 – 25.5Cr (Fair opening week haul, mixed response)
Aamir : 1.1 – 1.3Cr (Decent opening week haul)
2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)
70Cr +
Om Shanti Om
60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome, Taare Zameen Par
50Cr+
Partner
40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met
20Cr+
Dhamaal
10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum
I think we have digressed now. Time to sleep. yawn!
Thanks Q, rks and Neelu. 
[i]My tone was no more (probably less) judgmental than yours when you referred to a “certain class of people” ruling ...
Re: "What I did not like was the judgmental tone in your post."
My tone was no more (probably less) judgmental ...
"Nothing Aamir does is a risk. If he did a documentary on Adivasis in the Andamans he could possibly make ...
Re:The fact that Akshay Kumar does not pander to a self-consciously narrow demographic
Oh no, he does. It is just that ...
Yeh Tera Ghar Yeh Mera Ghar wasn't that funny. It was such a big disappointment after Hera Pheri. It pretty ...
Comment by Achilles on 14 June 2008:
Jay - 1 crore opening for SR in Rajasthan? Thats hard to accept … Rajasthan is not a Pune! neither in Maharashtra or South belt.
Comment by Achilles on 14 June 2008:
And talking of biases … even with a exaggerated Rajasthan claim … Isnt the BOI number within ur range?
No i guess IBOS is more in line with ur analysis … and the biased BOI has numbers lower than your lower range!
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
Ach I don’t get you. For the past few months you’ve said JA will make 3-4Cr from Rajasthan and now your questioning a poultry 1Cr in week for SR when it is practically equal to JA everywhere else? Come on! Be reasonable dude!
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
one cr is OK figure.
not high
Comment by Achilles on 14 June 2008:
BOI has Rajasthan territory at 75 lakhs … thats more realistic … And didnt u guys say Rajasthan wudnot have yielded no more than 2 crores for JA? But SR opened at 1 crore there … think about the double standards u represent my frd.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
and as far as I am concerned I always consider my number as estimates so donot use them to calculate.
with the jay number the range would even come down lower.
Comment by sandy on 14 June 2008:
Excellent stuff Jay, don’t see how a BO commentary can be more fair than this?
Jay, on your IBOS verses BOI point on the other thread, I’m willing to buy your argument that BOI’s commentary and overall stand hasn;t been favourable towards Sarkar Raj. Yet, when it came to the final figures, they haven’t played foul. They’ve called its opening week as ‘fair’, which is actually more than kind.
As I said, they are not above suspicion in these matters but they have been consistent overall. IBOS is just a comical site!
Comment by rockstar on 14 June 2008:
excellent stuff jay
Comment by rockstar on 14 June 2008:
excellent stuff jay
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
“didnt u guys say Rajasthan wudnot have yielded no more than 2 crores for JA?”
No Ach. I always said 2-3Cr. There is a difference. Anyway come after me for 0.25Cr, I can say it can be a lot worse! LOL!
Actually this range has subtle note behind, few might pick up on it. But I do not want another flame war or spend Sat/Sun defending my numbers.
That I have SR in the same range as BOI should ring a bell to a few!
Sandy - I agree by in large. And will say BOI has gotten better over time and I too have lowered my voice against them. But this week they did it again IMO. Some picked up on it, some would like to believe otherwise.
Comment by sandy on 14 June 2008:
Also, I’m happy that Jay’s column has narrowed down the range of SR’s first week total to just a crore. And I don’t think Rajasthan is a major issue, considering BOI themselves have given it 75 lakhs. A few lakhs here and there is more than acceptable.
Comment by Ravi on 14 June 2008:
Very nice Jay as always.
Comment by beld o beld on 14 June 2008:
Good commentary. Not biased imo
Ok jay - the most impt point u made here which no one has so far is that wom is uncertain. That’s pretty starnge at this moment. The problem I think is that the movie overall has decent reviews so the monday drop is a little inexplicable. Does it mean people didn’t like it? Will wom make people go to the theater. Big diff in this vis a vis ja imo is that u can’t take kids to the theater. Many folks like me will end up catching this on dvd even if wom is good
Comment by Julie on 14 June 2008:
excellent stuff Jay. A more complete analysis must say.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
and well the centers wise comparision for JA with SR give me below figures:
Adipur 109850 174965 -0.372160146
Agra 1169011 1095185 0.067409616
Ahmedabad 8798775 9448475 -0.068762419
Akalkot 14911 21267 -0.298866789
Akola 213795 203805 0.049017443
Aligarh 402209 444345 -0.094827218
Allahabad 270072 485059 -0.443218248
Ambala 490766 362677 0.353176518
Amboli 54500 69630 -0.217291397
Amravati 341270 335595 0.016910264
Amritsar 325910 334830 -0.026640385
Anand 788257 1039771 -0.241893648
Ankleshwar 89924 150352 -0.401910184
Ashta 1722 26324 -0.93458441
Attingal 6147 17733 -0.653358146
Aurangabad 101092 1798260 -0.943783435
Bagalkot 29481 34302 -0.140545741
Balaghat 45347 68848 -0.341346154
Balasinor 17923 41835 -0.571578822
Bangalore 14485998 11810507 0.226534813
Bardoli 83426 106785 -0.218747951
Bareilly 185607 196586 -0.055848331
Baroda 3035431 2863643 0.059989321
Beed 9795 199680 -0.950946514
Belgaum 206328 270918 -0.238411623
Betul 70527 92428 -0.236952006
Bhandara 45166 28525 0.583382997
Bharuch 475143 74000 5.420851351
Bhavnagar 558362 577329 -0.032853018
Bhavnagar 558362 577329 -0.032853018
Bhavnagar 484414 577329 -0.16093943
Bhavnagar 484414 577329 -0.16093943
Bhilai 159229 193305 -0.176281007
Bhopal 834131 948709 -0.120772545
Bhuj 93992 221411 -0.575486313
Bijapur 87634 107944 -0.188153116
Bilaspur 124407 217453 -0.427890165
Burhanpur 24465 44965 -0.455910152
Calicut 132783 222975 -0.404493777
Champa 19329 26298 -0.265001141
Chandigarh 2674583 1114747 1.399273557
Chandrapur 127099 146830 -0.134379895
Chennai 2912618 3557523 -0.181279222
Chhindwara 53293 57296 -0.069865261
Coimbatore 281279 411278 -0.31608547
Dabhoi 36168 56388 -0.358586933
Dahod 37016 144470 -0.743780716
Davangere 129852 143319 -0.09396521
Deesa 65501 59272 0.10509178
Dehradun 260998 335845 -0.222861737
Delhi 23157194 23580511 -0.017951986
Dhamatari 61399 44310 0.385669149
Dharmaj 20403 38620 -0.471698602
Dharwad 306188 111530 1.74534206
Dhoraji 13122 33698 -0.610600036
Dhule 110966 127748 -0.131368006
Durg 123100 134720 -0.086252969
Dwarka 37093 87997 -0.578474266
Faridabad 2514174 1879670 0.33756138
Gadhinglaj 18756 50445 -0.628189117
Ghaziabad 2245401 1833955 0.224349016
Ghulewadi 51118 78094 -0.345429867
Goa 1537107 1238224 0.241380396
Gondia 51511 88417 -0.417408417
Gorakhpur 424097 403020 0.052297653
Gurgaon 6323804 3881209 0.629338693
Himmatnagar 210216 242962 -0.134778278
Hissar 373870 346909 0.077717788
Hubli 319527 320022 -0.001546769
Hupri 18379 29628 -0.379674632
Hyderabad 702489 9211121 -0.92373469
Ichalkaranji 132301 147112 -0.100678395
Indore 3244278 3715972 -0.126936909
Islampur 8838 102277 -0.91358761
Jabalpur 194594 184935 0.052229162
Jagdalpur 74009 108000 -0.314731481
Jalandhar 838360 910400 -0.079130053
Jalgaon 303071 245374 0.235139012
Jammu 433304 298278 0.452685079
Jamnagar 600163 635071 -0.054967082
Jetpur 22949 67239 -0.658695103
Jhansi 155902 150952 0.032791881
Junagadh 60040 98170 -0.388407864
Kalol 23153 45529 -0.491466977
Kanpur 1754464 1497988 0.171213655
Karad 83071 188842 -0.560103155
Karanja 10555 41914 -0.748174834
Karwar 215386 41737 4.160552987
Katni 40496 37853 0.069822735
Kaushambi 2043622 1385920 0.474559859
Khamgaon 75855 132200 -0.426210287
Khandwa 25371 41582 -0.389856188
Khedbrahma 15229 44791 -0.65999866
Kolhapur 880222 837195 0.051394239
Kolkatta 10669642 7583263 0.406998808
Kopargaon 59438 111994 -0.46927514
Korba 81685 103554 -0.211184503
Kosamba 25842 14026 0.842435477
Lasalgaon 22437 40593 -0.447269234
Latur 40827 912374 -0.955251903
Loni 71730 68812 0.042405394
Lucknow 3274563 2810318 0.165193049
Ludhiana 1726433 1764745 -0.021709652
Madhapar 44810 71490 -0.373199049
Mahuva 17768 73000 -0.75660274
Malegaon 103290 127982 -0.192933381
Manchar 30154 34664 -0.130106162
Mandvi 21300 64239 -0.668425723
Manendragarh 21015 36323 -0.42144096
Mangalvedha 35076 34989 0.002486496
Meerut 992431 1022990 -0.029872237
Mehsana 264508 315380 -0.161303824
Mhow 38944 49739 -0.217032912
Miraj 19630 150337 -0.869426688
Moradabad 444364 439829 0.010310825
Morvi 55392 97393 -0.431252759
Mumbai 47864201 51890116 -0.077585392
Muzaffaranagar 175525 130221 0.347900876
Mysore 362880 279271 0.299383037
Nagpur 2893984 2188322 0.322467169
Nandgaon 18039 27673 -0.348137173
Nasik 1655564 1645672 0.006010918
Navsari 233601 345596 -0.324063357
Nippani 33674 54082 -0.377352909
Nizamabad 8146 191914 -0.957553904
Noida 3098478 3433915 -0.097683548
Padra 30687 49855 -0.384474977
Palanpur 144617 200875 -0.280064717
Palus 24336 34919 -0.303072826
Panchkula 117212 250200 -0.531526779
Pandharpur 63533 94725 -0.32929005
Parathwada 36017 45989 -0.21683446
Patan 148107 182045 -0.186426433
Patiala 140910 216780 -0.349986161
Patiala 140910 216780 -0.349986161
Patiala 698501 216780 2.222165329
Patiala 698501 216780 2.222165329
Porbandar 91271 150598 -0.393942815
Pune 14070160 11321584 0.242773096
Pusad 102145 111594 -0.084673011
Rahuri 36586 63691 -0.425570332
Raigarh 86658 103898 -0.165931972
Raipur 1177828 1023601 0.150671013
Rajkot 1266881 1294006 -0.020962036
Rajnandgaon 64891 64393 0.00773376
Ratlam 77517 144329 -0.462914591
Rewari 97474 115685 -0.157418853
Rishikesh 79421 97017 -0.181370275
Rohtak 94301 153822 -0.386947251
Sagar 79902 75734 0.055034727
Saharanpur 89341 182951 -0.511667058
Salem 107609 138768 -0.22454024
Sangamner 38830 58566 -0.336987331
Sangli 514638 448302 0.14797168
Sangola 24310 31071 -0.217598404
Satara 118301 175877 -0.327365147
Sathe 29672 47515 -0.375523519
Shahada 29575 54567 -0.458005754
Shirrol 14990 28210 -0.468628146
Siddpur 52624 48016 0.095968011
Sinnar 22804 38610 -0.409375809
Solapur 242801 439478 -0.447524108
Surat 3371230 5061870 -0.333995144
Surendranagar 51552 148223 -0.652199726
Tilda 17181 20116 -0.145903758
Trichur 96538 126605 -0.237486671
Trivandrum 162380 272619 -0.404370202
Ujjain 84023 118488 -0.290873337
Umbraj 16739 28467 -0.411985808
Vadgaon 7428 55282 -0.865634384
Valod 8621 22031 -0.608687758
Varanasi 1052351 1064792 -0.011683972
Vellore 50168 155101 -0.676546251
Vijapur 16337 40051 -0.592095079
Vijayawada 38497 269619 -0.857217036
Visnagar 59539 89056 -0.331443137
Vita 19288 45646 -0.577443807
Vyara 48302 119062 -0.594312207
Wai 55543 101606 -0.453349212
Wardha 109078 126862 -0.140183822
Yavatmal 75784 90687 -0.164334469
Total 192463270 199046425 -0.033073465
means SR is less than 3% of JA not the other way
and i did not find any % more than even 100%
plz correct me if i am wrong
Comment by Tango on 14 June 2008:
Thanks Jayshah.
Good work.
Comment by beld o beld on 14 June 2008:
Btw, we are into the 2nd weekend. How come there is no commentary from anyone on how sr is doing. These 3 days are absolutely critical imo. If sr does well this weekend - it will have a chance to be a hit.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
Sorry Again mistake
its correct one can you check it please jay
City Collections Collections3 Difference
Nizamabad 8146 191914 -0.957553904
Latur 40827 912374 -0.955251903
Beed 9795 199680 -0.950946514
Aurangabad 101092 1798260 -0.943783435
Ashta 1722 26324 -0.93458441
Hyderabad 702489 9211121 -0.92373469
Islampur 8838 102277 -0.91358761
Miraj 19630 150337 -0.869426688
Vadgaon 7428 55282 -0.865634384
Vijayawada 38497 269619 -0.857217036
Mahuva 17768 73000 -0.75660274
Karanja 10555 41914 -0.748174834
Dahod 37016 144470 -0.743780716
Vellore 50168 155101 -0.676546251
Mandvi 21300 64239 -0.668425723
Khedbrahma 15229 44791 -0.65999866
Jetpur 22949 67239 -0.658695103
Attingal 6147 17733 -0.653358146
Surendranagar 51552 148223 -0.652199726
Gadhinglaj 18756 50445 -0.628189117
Dhoraji 13122 33698 -0.610600036
Valod 8621 22031 -0.608687758
Vyara 48302 119062 -0.594312207
Vijapur 16337 40051 -0.592095079
Dwarka 37093 87997 -0.578474266
Vita 19288 45646 -0.577443807
Bhuj 93992 221411 -0.575486313
Balasinor 17923 41835 -0.571578822
Karad 83071 188842 -0.560103155
Panchkula 117212 250200 -0.531526779
Saharanpur 89341 182951 -0.511667058
Kalol 23153 45529 -0.491466977
Dharmaj 20403 38620 -0.471698602
Kopargaon 59438 111994 -0.46927514
Shirrol 14990 28210 -0.468628146
Ratlam 77517 144329 -0.462914591
Shahada 29575 54567 -0.458005754
Burhanpur 24465 44965 -0.455910152
Wai 55543 101606 -0.453349212
Solapur 242801 439478 -0.447524108
Lasalgaon 22437 40593 -0.447269234
Allahabad 270072 485059 -0.443218248
Morvi 55392 97393 -0.431252759
Bilaspur 124407 217453 -0.427890165
Khamgaon 75855 132200 -0.426210287
Rahuri 36586 63691 -0.425570332
Manendragarh 21015 36323 -0.42144096
Gondia 51511 88417 -0.417408417
Umbraj 16739 28467 -0.411985808
Sinnar 22804 38610 -0.409375809
Calicut 132783 222975 -0.404493777
Trivandrum 162380 272619 -0.404370202
Ankleshwar 89924 150352 -0.401910184
Porbandar 91271 150598 -0.393942815
Khandwa 25371 41582 -0.389856188
Junagadh 60040 98170 -0.388407864
Rohtak 94301 153822 -0.386947251
Padra 30687 49855 -0.384474977
Hupri 18379 29628 -0.379674632
Nippani 33674 54082 -0.377352909
Sathe 29672 47515 -0.375523519
Madhapar 44810 71490 -0.373199049
Adipur 109850 174965 -0.372160146
Dabhoi 36168 56388 -0.358586933
Nandgaon 18039 27673 -0.348137173
Ghulewadi 51118 78094 -0.345429867
Balaghat 45347 68848 -0.341346154
Sangamner 38830 58566 -0.336987331
Surat 3371230 5061870 -0.333995144
Visnagar 59539 89056 -0.331443137
Pandharpur 63533 94725 -0.32929005
Satara 118301 175877 -0.327365147
Navsari 233601 345596 -0.324063357
Coimbatore 281279 411278 -0.31608547
Jagdalpur 74009 108000 -0.314731481
Palus 24336 34919 -0.303072826
Akalkot 14911 21267 -0.298866789
Ujjain 84023 118488 -0.290873337
Palanpur 144617 200875 -0.280064717
Champa 19329 26298 -0.265001141
Anand 788257 1039771 -0.241893648
Belgaum 206328 270918 -0.238411623
Trichur 96538 126605 -0.237486671
Betul 70527 92428 -0.236952006
Salem 107609 138768 -0.22454024
Dehradun 260998 335845 -0.222861737
Bardoli 83426 106785 -0.218747951
Sangola 24310 31071 -0.217598404
Amboli 54500 69630 -0.217291397
Mhow 38944 49739 -0.217032912
Parathwada 36017 45989 -0.21683446
Korba 81685 103554 -0.211184503
Malegaon 103290 127982 -0.192933381
Bijapur 87634 107944 -0.188153116
Patan 148107 182045 -0.186426433
Rishikesh 79421 97017 -0.181370275
Chennai 2912618 3557523 -0.181279222
Bhilai 159229 193305 -0.176281007
Raigarh 86658 103898 -0.165931972
Yavatmal 75784 90687 -0.164334469
Mehsana 264508 315380 -0.161303824
Rewari 97474 115685 -0.157418853
Tilda 17181 20116 -0.145903758
Bagalkot 29481 34302 -0.140545741
Wardha 109078 126862 -0.140183822
Himmatnagar 210216 242962 -0.134778278
Chandrapur 127099 146830 -0.134379895
Dhule 110966 127748 -0.131368006
Manchar 30154 34664 -0.130106162
Indore 3244278 3715972 -0.126936909
Bhopal 834131 948709 -0.120772545
Ichalkaranji 132301 147112 -0.100678395
Noida 3098478 3433915 -0.097683548
Aligarh 402209 444345 -0.094827218
Davangere 129852 143319 -0.09396521
Durg 123100 134720 -0.086252969
Pusad 102145 111594 -0.084673011
Jalandhar 838360 910400 -0.079130053
Mumbai 47864201 51890116 -0.077585392
Chhindwara 53293 57296 -0.069865261
Ahmedabad 8798775 9448475 -0.068762419
Bareilly 185607 196586 -0.055848331
Jamnagar 600163 635071 -0.054967082
Bhavnagar 558362 577329 -0.032853018
Meerut 992431 1022990 -0.029872237
Amritsar 325910 334830 -0.026640385
Ludhiana 1726433 1764745 -0.021709652
Rajkot 1266881 1294006 -0.020962036
Delhi 23157194 23580511 -0.017951986
Varanasi 1052351 1064792 -0.011683972
Hubli 319527 320022 -0.001546769
Mangalvedha 35076 34989 0.002486496
Nasik 1655564 1645672 0.006010918
Rajnandgaon 64891 64393 0.00773376
Moradabad 444364 439829 0.010310825
Amravati 341270 335595 0.016910264
Jhansi 155902 150952 0.032791881
Loni 71730 68812 0.042405394
Akola 213795 203805 0.049017443
Kolhapur 880222 837195 0.051394239
Jabalpur 194594 184935 0.052229162
Gorakhpur 424097 403020 0.052297653
Sagar 79902 75734 0.055034727
Baroda 3035431 2863643 0.059989321
Agra 1169011 1095185 0.067409616
Katni 40496 37853 0.069822735
Hissar 373870 346909 0.077717788
Siddpur 52624 48016 0.095968011
Deesa 65501 59272 0.10509178
Sangli 514638 448302 0.14797168
Raipur 1177828 1023601 0.150671013
Lucknow 3274563 2810318 0.165193049
Kanpur 1754464 1497988 0.171213655
Ghaziabad 2245401 1833955 0.224349016
Bangalore 14485998 11810507 0.226534813
Jalgaon 303071 245374 0.235139012
Goa 1537107 1238224 0.241380396
Pune 14070160 11321584 0.242773096
Mysore 362880 279271 0.299383037
Nagpur 2893984 2188322 0.322467169
Faridabad 2514174 1879670 0.33756138
Muzaffaranagar 175525 130221 0.347900876
Ambala 490766 362677 0.353176518
Dhamatari 61399 44310 0.385669149
Kolkatta 10669642 7583263 0.406998808
Jammu 433304 298278 0.452685079
Kaushambi 2043622 1385920 0.474559859
Bhandara 45166 28525 0.583382997
Gurgaon 6323804 3881209 0.629338693
Kosamba 25842 14026 0.842435477
Chandigarh 2674583 1114747 1.399273557
Dharwad 306188 111530 1.74534206
Patiala 698501 216780 2.222165329
Karwar 215386 41737 4.160552987
189480616 196590098 -0.036163988
Comment by sandy on 14 June 2008:
The essential difference between Ja and SR is that in the case of the latter no one is coming out saying it’s a bad film but neither is it brilliant to prompt a repeat audience or even great WOM. And yes, the genre - dark thriller - is also one of the reasons why the family audiences are not to keep on this one.
This is precicely the advantage JA enjoyed. In spite of being a historical, the film was always pitched as a love story -which is why it fabulous business on all weekends and remained steady throughout the week. Also, the WOM on the film was more promissing than what we’re seeing for SR.
There are two things I attribute SR’s ‘average’ performance to;
1. The genre disadvantage
2. The fact that no one called it a ‘must-see’ film –even if most people found it watchable.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
Jay my data giving me
from 174 centers JA is 19.65
and SR is 18.94
and no center has diffference greater than 600%
can you please recheck
Comment by ILG on 14 June 2008:
Sandy,
Agree totally with your points.
Jay,
Commendable work as always, more so this week as given the climate here was a tough task to give a correct picture without ruffling a few feathers. But, you have done it.
Overall, I find performance a fair one and slightly better than the commentary would have us belive. I guess and only guess that second week fall will be greater tahn 50% and less than 60%.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
“Overall, I find performance a fair one and slightly better than the commentary would have us belive.”
agreed .the way commentary was going i thought it would have been less than 20 cr
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
“Overall, I find performance a fair one and slightly better than the commentary would have us belive.”
agreed .the way commentary was going i thought it would have been less than 20 cr
Comment by PHAK on 14 June 2008:
good work, Jay!! very much on the line what I had expected.
The first week has been less than impressive to me,barring south expecially Bangalore.Mumbai and Delhi could have been much better, one should easily expect a better figures in Mumbai as it was supposed to be its strong center and the opening was better than the rest of India.
2nd week now holds the key to determine what could be its end gross.
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
Hold on rudresh, let me check, maybe I am the one who made an error here…
Comment by ILG on 14 June 2008:
I would also like to congratulate members on the REMARKABLE restraint shown in discussing this and atleast so far avoiding the firewroks and mud-slinging.
May be we have turned a page.
Comment by akshay shah on 14 June 2008:
Jay’s the word…ace work as always!
Comment by shetty on 14 June 2008:
Good work Jay as always.
I postponed my farm trip just for your column
Ok guys catch you on monday. Take care Ach bhai, Ravi bhai, Beld & Som
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
ok you are taking it like
8145 is actually 5 % of 191914
but 191914 is 2255% of 8145.
I got confused becuase the reference here is JA so the first one should be considered not other way as you worte above 600% are ignored.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
so this way many will goes out of range..
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
so this way many will goes out of range..
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
Have you added Hyderabad etc? I have excluded them…
My data looks fine this end. I excluded the following
Nizambad, Vijayawad, Hyderabad, Latur, Aurangbad, Beed, Vadgoan, Islampur, Miraj.
Comment by Tango on 14 June 2008:
Jay Hyderabad looks woefully short/under-reported by Taran. We will get it and so you can incorporate it later.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
this way the many ja number goes out of calculation and it comes out to be +2.8% as per my data also.
and in this case only JA number chiped out
as the other way SR bharuch is only 542% higher than JA numbers so did not fall under 600% restriction
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
“Hyderabad 702489 9211121 -0.92373469″
rudresh I would ignore this centre and a like.
My %’s are simply (SR-JA)/SR
It doesn’t matter really. But any centre where SR grosses 10% or less that of JA is implauible for me.
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
well with ur crieria hydrabad will itself get excluded.
The confusion was that u were giving the number with refernce to JA like -8% in mumbai not with ref to SR
so earlier I did not exclude any as all were less than 600%
then I got that from both end it has to be done
now comes out to be +2.8% so more or less 3%
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
it should be either (SR-JA)/JA or (JA-SR)/SR
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
liek A=105 b=100 then 105-100/100 =5% : A is 5% greater than B
or 100-105/105=-4.76% :B is -4.76% less than A
is not it??
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
Ok, I am not good with these %’s. But either way I’ve kicked off the centres I think are under-reported for SR. Think I got the right ones, could have kicked off more but left it at 500% + or -
Thanks to all.
ILG - possibly been a little harsh, not sure. Wasn’t my point to. Now your making me feel guilty!
Comment by satyam on 14 June 2008:
Stellar stuff as always Jay! The question becomes whether Ahmedabad and Mumbai are incomplete or not. Because Taran has stopped indicating this completely it’s become a tricky proposition (most recently we saw with Bhootnath that week 2 Mumbai was half the actual number). Here for example Hyderabad’s more than 1 crore becomes 7 lakhs. FI should reveal whether those two are incomplete or not. If Bombay is 5.4 crores and Ahmedabad 1.12 crores as the IBOS figures suggest the latter would be fine, the former still a bit disappointing compared to every other major metro. Not sure why this is so. But there’s some other incomplete stuff there as well. I very much doubt Allahabad could be 80% behind JA for example. The other thing is that barring Mumbai I think it’s been good to very strong opening everywhere given the genre. My own sense of it is that it’s north of 25 crores though I don’t see the 30 crores being claimed elsewhere. And the difference between the very high 20s and what I think it is might precisely be Mumbai! Week 2 is certainly important. And your work is fine as always..
By the way here’s another way of proving that it’s north of 25 crores. BOI give it 23.3 crores (last night they had it at 22.5). Just looking at this one has to say that at least 2-3 crores are missing. LOL!
Comment by rudresh on 14 June 2008:
its ok JAY small difference goes an error and in range.
So as far as i am concernd i am accepting BOI numbers as it is well with in what I estimated and ofcourse also what u had estimated.Ups and down by lacs
Bye for now see you all on tuesday.
Till than many things will have been clear
Comment by satyam on 14 June 2008:
Of course the high end of your range is not too far from 25 crores.
Comment by jayshah on 14 June 2008:
“(JA-SR)/SR”
I used this but only the parenthesis the other way round. So my should read I think JA is 8% GREATER than Sarkar Raj in Mumbai. That is what I think you mean.
Satyam, I will look out for Mumbai certainly because it is the most important number. Ahmedabad too.
On your last paragraph I think you got the jist of what I was hinting at.
I have used lower bases here than BOI one’s. My numbers for these big releases are always lower than BOI’s. This time it was the same. Welcome/OSO/Partner/HB/BB/JA/Race etc are always 5-10% lower. For some reason here, using same model I derived a figure in line or possibly more than BOI! Fancy that I say.
Anyway, not out to cause mayhem and in fact have to go and watch footie now.
Comment by satyam on 14 June 2008:
Jay, to be honest even if the IBOS number on Mumbai were true it would still not have kept pace with either a pune in Maharashtra or a Calcutta or a Gurgaon or a Chandigarh or a Bangalore. Ahmedabad though would be fine at 1.12 crores, not as high as Pune but acceptable. But there was heavy flooding in Mumbai, I wonder if this is the reason. Because it is the only outlier among major metros. The big story though I think is the film’s performance in the north.
To reiterate something else for the benefit of the audience here. Whenever I do have disagreements with you (and you’re a dangerous man to disagree with in these matters!) it takes away nothing from the fact that I consider your numbers and reporting entirely acceptable and plausible. Even when I disagree. Because I can see the work on display.
This is not at all like the disagreements I have with others because I see an agenda on display. So you and BOI currently have a similar number (at least at your lower end) but I can accept your number, not theirs! Why? because they had HB at around 27 crores, BB was less than this but high enough. Comparing the numbers of those films with SR’s I don’t see how SR can only be at 23.3 crores. So it is never just about the number for me but where one is coming from.
Of course I note with some irony that even Rudresh here, hardly an Abhishek fan (!), has a range just about touching 25 crores! This is supposedly poor for SR!
As I said the other day the only films that have made 25 crores of more since D2 are Partner, HB, OSO, Race, Welcome! I personally believe SR is in that 25 or more zone but even excluding this how many films touch that mark?!
Comment by ILG on 14 June 2008:
Hard to call a 25 crore opener a flop by any chance. Bollywood would love more such flops!
Comment by PHAK on 14 June 2008:
still early to say whether it will flop or not.the first week numbers are just about fine, a decent 2nd week IMO will take it to the safey zone.
Comment by rockstar on 14 June 2008:
flop lmao
Comment by sandy on 14 June 2008:
ILG: Sarkar Raj is no flop, it will just about recover its money in some circuits and could be losing in a few.
But point here is, no one expected this to flop in any case — mostly because even if it’s not a great film, it isn’t bad either.
However, its performance so far is still disappointing considering that this was in fact expected to be an outright winner for many reasons. As I see it, there’s been nothing remarkable about Sarkar Raj’s run –either commercially or critically.
The Bachchans have managed a face-saving BO performance but Abhishek seriously needs a bigger hit.
Comment by Achilles on 14 June 2008:
Nice to see the ‘30-crores joker’ back again … still not sober yet though … from Taran’s reported centers, BOI’s number , Jay and Rud’s numbers … all indicate SR has opened around 23.3 crores … but then one who propagated a 30 crores opening a few hrs back is expected to ‘believe’ in anything above 25 crores
LOL
After slinging ‘anti-Bachhan hence wrong’ conspiracy theory for each and every negative review and BO report … its once again being taken up for BOI/Rud/Taran and even Jay since none of their numbers is satisfying his propaganda.
Btw - Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Allahabad , Hyderabad numbers can be cross checked from FI.
Comment by rockstar on 14 June 2008:
well disappointhing performance hmm by what account and how many recent hits have made mondey in whole terrotary
Comment by PHAK on 14 June 2008:
Ravi bhai, will change it to my original name, did it for fun only.BTW heard you had a great time in cruise.
Comment by rockstar on 14 June 2008:
*money*
Comment by sandy on 14 June 2008:
“As I said the other day the only films that have made 25 crores of more since D2 are Partner, HB, OSO, Race, Welcome! ”
What about Jannat then, where Emraan Hashmi got a big opening just recently? The film was made on a miniscule budget, remember!
Comment by Jesse on 14 June 2008:
Great Job Jay. The commentary here is just fantastic.
Comment by don123 on 14 June 2008:
As usual great work. I agree whole heartedly with your commentary. I am amazed at how with logic and analysis you are able to convince both sides of a rather acrimonious debate.
You should be in politics, my friend.