JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Bhootnath collects fair opening week haul…

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Bhootnath

Bhootnath from most reports had a pretty slow opening at the box office. Reports indicated occupancies ranging from 20-40% which suggests that the film didn’t quite invoke huge hype pre-release and was rather relying on word of mouth and good reports post reviews.
Almost certainly the critical reviews have provided a mixed opinion on the film and one could say that’s possibly the audience verdict on the film. The second week should almost certainly decide which way this film is headed. Coming back to the first week, there was a reported pick-up over the weekend probably helped further since the movie is geared towards the family audiences. During the week however, I suspect the film has dipped slightly more than was anticipated but still remaining fairly steady.

Week 1 Bhootnath vs Week 1 U Me Aur Hum
Mumbai 4% means that Bhootnath is 4% MORE than UMAH in Week 1

Mumbai 4%
Bharuch 20%
Jamnagar 37%
Himmatnagar 21%
Gandhinagar 13%
Baroda 10%
Ahmedabad 24%
Pune -16%
Nasik 90%
Goa 11%
Delhi 29%
Faridabad 39%
Noida 21%
Kaushambi 6%
Gurgaon -4%
Raipur 23%
Nagpur 36%
Lucknow -13%
Indore -8%
Ujjain -49%
Sehore 37%
Jaipur 0%
Kota -24%
Kolkatta -5%
Darjeeling 30%
Guwahati 18%
Bangalore -93%
Chennai -56%

Bhootnath leads in 19 centres
UMAH leads in 9 centres

The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Bhootnath = 7.24Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for UMAH = 6.33Cr

This means that Bhootnath is 114% of UMAH’s total (7.24/6.33 = 114%)

Using my own UMAH Week 1 total of 12.5Cr (midpoint), Bhootnath’s Week 1 = 114% * (12.5) = 14.3Cr

A similar exercise with other films yields the following outputs;
LCMD ~ 13.7Cr (using my LCMD figure of 11.5Cr)
JWM ~ 13.4Cr (using my JWM figure of 12Cr)

My week one estimate for Bhootnath is 13.5-14.5Cr.

Bhootnath 1 Week Total = 13.5-14.5Cr(Week 1) = 13.5 – 14.5Cr

Verdict – Decent opening week

The opening week is fair at best overall. After some mixed reports during the week I was expecting a bit more than this. With some competition this week coming from Jannat, Bhootnath will face some resistance. However, it should still have a steady week two (at least this weekend), a critical one to decide the film’s overall fate. A total in excess of 25Cr is a reasonable target first, 30Cr a more optimistic one.

Past Releases

Tashan

Tashan had a pretty ordinary week three, falling significantly again.

Tashan Week 3 vs Tashan Week 2
63% Mumbai means Tashan fell by 63% in Mumbai in Week 3

Mumbai 63%
Ahmedabad 56%
Jamnagar 51%
Delhi 64%
Noida 58%
Kaushambi 73%
Gurgaon 66%
Faridabad -67%
Aligarh 48%
Bareilly 58%
Agra 40%
Raipur 22%
Ujjain 45%
Sehore 58%
Aurangabad 33%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 59%
Week 3 drop = 61%
A few smaller centres (Raipur, Agra, Ujjain) are showing some resistance, but it clear Tashan has lost its way hugely in multiplexes and big cities. Without any help from Mumbai, Ahmedabad or Delhi, the film has struggled to post anything substantial.

The Tashan Week 1 total for the above centres = 6.43Cr
The Tashan Week 3 total for the above centres = 1.02Cr

This means that Tashan’s Week 3 total is 16% of Tashan’s Week 1 total (1.02/6.43 = 16%)

Using my own Tashan Week 1 Total of 14.0-15.0Cr, the Tashan Week 3 Total = 16% * (14.0-15.0) = 2.2-2.4Cr

Tashan 3 Week Total = 14.0-15.0Cr(Week 1) + 5.7-6.1Cr(Week 2) 2.2-2.4Cr(Week 3) = 21.9 – 23.4Cr

Verdict – Disaster

Tashan is unanimously confirmed as one of the biggest disasters of recent memory.

Mr White Mr Black

The film collected a meager 0.2Cr after tumbling by 90% across India. Its total now stands between 2.2-2.5Cr, a clear flop.

U Me Aur Hum

U Me Aur Hum hangs on for one more week. Collecting around 0.4Cr in its fifth week, this below average film has amassed 22.5-24.5Cr from India overall.

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)

February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 56.9 – 59.6Cr (Superhit)

March 2008
Black & White : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Flop)
Race : 55.0 – 58.5Cr (Hit)
1-2-3 : 15.2 – 16.1Cr (Below Average)

April 2008
Khuda Kay Liya : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Above Average)
U Me Aur Hum : 22.5 – 24.5Cr (Below Average)
Krazzy 4 : 20.3 – 21.9Cr (Below Average)
Tashan : 21.9 – 23.4Cr (Disaster)

May 2008
Mr White Mr Black : 2.2 – 2.5Cr (Flop)
Bhootnath : 13.5 – 14.5Cr (Fair opening at best)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome, Taare Zameen Par

50Cr+
Partner

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum