JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Tashan endures horrendous opening week problems…

May 3rd, 2008Related|Filed Under

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

An opening week that was meant to be historic turned out to be a nightmare for most concerned with Tashan. The huge multi-star comedy/actioner riding on the success of the recent box office exploits of its stars; Akshay Kumar (a run of 5 successes in a row), Saif Ali Khan (substantial success from Race), Kareena Kapoor (accolades and box office success from Jab We Met) and Anil Kapoor (supporting acts in Welcome and Race) AND with one of the biggest production houses calling the shots, Tashan had all the pieces in the jigsaw in place to potentially annihilate opening week records. Unfortunately, the stubbornness of Yashraj and the ‘squeezing out’ of multiplex owners causing a revenue sharing row meant Tashan failed to release in most multiplexes for the whole of the week. In this age of huge multiplex revenues, the loss is likely to be greater than 10Cr nett revenues for the week.

There really hasn’t been much good fortune for Tashan from any quarters. The reviews have by in large ripped the movie apart and comparisons to films last year have been less than complimentary. The opening in small centres too lacked the frenzy and buzz seen for big releases. The pre-release publicity was lackluster; was this a disaster waiting to happen? The one bit of good news the film has received is that it will release in multiplexes in week two. That it could be all too late is a near a bang on certainty, but it could help to repair some damage.

Week 1 Tashan vs Week 1 Jodha Akbar
Mumbai -165% means that Tashan is 165% LESS than JA in Week 1

Mumbai -198%
Ahmedabad -67%
Jamnagar -40%
Bhavnagar -149%
Delhi -131%
Ghaziabad 41%
Noida -36%
Kaushambi -28%
Gurgaon -68%
Faridabad -72%
Moradabad -36%
Aligarh 17%
Bareilly -13%
Agra -178%
Raipur -221%
Rampur 44%
Ajmer 49%
Ujjain -7%
Sehore 22%
Aurangabad -554%

Jodha Akbar leads in 15 centres
Tashan leads in 5 centres

The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Tashan = 6.53Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for JA = 10.50Cr

This means that Tashan is 62% of JA’s total (6.53/10.50 = 62%)

Using my own JA Week 1 total of 23Cr (midpoint), the Tashan Week 1 = 62% * (23) = 14.3Cr

A similar exercise with other films yields the following outputs;
Race ~ 14.2Cr (using my Race figure of 33.5Cr)
Welcome ~ 14.8Cr (using my Welcome figure of 32Cr)
Krazzy 4 ~ 13.8Cr (using my Krazzy 4 figure of 14.5Cr)

My week one estimate for Tashan is 14-15Cr.

Tashan 1 Week Total = 14.0-15.0Cr(Week 1) = 14.0 – 15.0Cr

Verdict – Disastrous opening week

Of course, due to circumstances, the overall opening week total for Tashan looks quite pitiful. However, despite a no show in multiplexes, it did post decent numbers in Delhi and surrounding areas. In fact had the film released properly, the film may have shattered box office records in this region. ‘Had’ is of course the most important word in that last sentence because reality is, Tashan thus far is a disaster for many reasons. Critical failure is secondary to many if the film holds up at the box office, however the word of mouth has in general been poor. Curiosity too has been low. And a stubborn producer that curtailed any chance of a record.

The following couple of weeks will prove pivotal for Yashraj, to see if they can eek out substantial revenue to save the film from being an outright disaster.

Past releases

U Me Aur Hum

U Me Aur Hum had a significant chance to at least establish itself further in the past week. However, it failed to completely capitalize on the no show of Tashan at multiplexes.

UMAH Week 3 vs UMAH Week 2
50% Mumbai means UMAH fell by 50% in Mumbai in Week 3

Mumbai 50%
Himmatnagar -5%
Baroda 43%
Bharuch 28%
Ahmedabad 64%
Pune 26%
Goa 26%
Nasik 32%
Delhi 45%
Noida 84%
Kaushambi 51%
Gurgaon 59%
Raipur 28%
Nagpur 33%
Faridabad 51%
Indore 76%
Guwahati 60%
Jaipur 4%
Kota 24%
Kolkatta 24%
Darjeeling -85%
Bangalore 30%
Chennai -63%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 48%
Week 3 drop = 50%
Again a relatively steady week at the lower end, somewhat disappointing since there was a clear path at the multiplexes for another week. Mumbai and Delhi held steady but Ahmedabad fell heavy.

The UMAH Week 1 total for the above centres = 6.27Cr
The UMAH Week 3 total for the above centres = 1.65Cr

This means that UMAH’s Week 3 total is 26% of UMAH’s Week 1 total (1.65/6.27 = 26%)

Using my own UMAH Week 1 Total of 12.0-13.0Cr, the UMAH Week 3 Total = 26% * (12.0-13.0) = 3.2-3.4Cr

U Me Aur Hum 3 Week Total = 12.0-13.0Cr(Week 1) + 6.2-6.8Cr(Week 2) + 3.2-3.4Cr(Week 3) = 21.3 – 23.2Cr

Verdict – Below Average

Failure to really capitalize on the opening given suggests U Me Aur Hum has disappointed overall. The film hasn’t been rejected, but also hasn’t found the audiences swarming to the theatres either. A below average performer overall

Krazzy 4

Krazzy 4 did show an upturn this past week.

Krazzy 4 Week 3 vs Krazzy 4 Week 2
51% Mumbai means Krazzy 4 fell by 51% in Mumbai in Week 3

Mumbai 51%
Himmatnagar 26%
Ahmedabad 43%
Baroda 57%
Bharuch 50%
Pune 27%
Goa 25%
Nasik 41%
Delhi 81%
Noida 89%
Gurgaon 56%
Bareilly 72%
Faridabad 62%
Indore 82%
Raipur 27%
Nagpur 15%
Lucknow 46%
Aurangabad 24%
Guwahati 65%
Kolkatta 28%
Darjeeling -139%
Jaipur 5%
Kota 0%
Bangalore 74%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 70%
Week 3 drop = 54%
Mumbai remained steady, but Delhi fell hard probably due to Tashan’s strength in that region. Overall the movie showed sufficient legs after a woeful week two showing.

The Krazzy 4 Week 1 total for the above centres = 6.90Cr (ignoring Pune & Nasik)
The Krazzy 4 Week 3 total for the above centres = 0.95Cr (ignoring Pune & Nasik)

This means that Krazzy 4’s Week 3 total is 14% of Krazzy 4’s Week 1 total (0.95/6.90 = 14%)

Using my own Krazzy 4 Week 1 Total of 14.0-15.0Cr, the Krazzy 4 Week 3 Total = 14% * (14.0-15.0) = 1.9-2.1Cr

Krazzy 4 3 Week Total = 14.0-15.0Cr(Week 1) + 4.2-4.5Cr(Week 2) + 1.9-2.1Cr(Week 3) = 20.1 – 21.6Cr

Verdict – Below Average

After a good start, Krazzy 4 endured a poor second week but a much steadier week three. Overall the film is a below average performer at the box office.

Race

Now in its sixth week, the film collected approximately 0.4-0.5Cr in week six taking its total to 55.0-58.5Cr. Overall the movie is a clean hit.

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)

February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 56.9 – 59.6Cr (Superhit)

March 2008
Black & White : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Flop)
Race : 55.0 – 58.5Cr (Hit)
1-2-3 : 15.2 – 16.1Cr (Decent week one at best)

April 2008
Khuda Kay Liya : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Above Average)
U Me Aur Hum : 21.3 – 23.2Cr (Below Average)
Krazzy 4 : 20.1 – 21.6Cr (Below Average)
Tashan : 14.0 – 15.0Cr (Disastrous opening week problems)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome, Taare Zameen Par

50Cr+
Partner

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum

There Are 14 Responses So Far. »

Comment by satyam on 3 May 2008:

Thanks Jay. Your range seems exactly right for Tashan and is more or less what I estimated it to be looking at some of the numbers. I think that with a proper multiplex release it would have minimally done 25 crores but possibly even closer to 30. Yashraj messed this up big time. And now they’ve been forced to accept the very multiplex terms they refused earlier.
Comment by sandy on 3 May 2008:

Comprehensive analysis Jay. Yup, Tashan’s pretty much a disaster. The multiplex relief for it has come in too late.

But you know what, not all of whom I’ve intereacted with have hated the film. Abzee liked it, so did q. A couple of people in my office said it was a good time-pass flick.
What I mean is that the BO figures gives the impression of this film being a complete loser, but in many ways, Tashan has just been very unfortunate.
Comment by Simply Som on 3 May 2008:

Nice work as always Jay.

Indeed a horrible opening for Tashan.Unless it stabilizes well in the coming weeks, it will end up as one of the biigest dissapointments.
Comment by sandy on 3 May 2008:

But judging purely by BO performance, it’s really hard to recollect a film in recent history that has lost face the way Tashan has! These are hard times for YRFs.
Comment by jayshah on 3 May 2008:

Sandy I think to some have liked it. But general sentiment seems to be rejection. Week two will of course reveal all, the attrition should give the clearest picture.
Comment by Simply Som on 3 May 2008:

edited: “biggest”

BOI figure looks to be on the higher side.Don’t think with out multiplex release and low numbers in Mumbai it can do more than 15 cr.anyway will wait for the FI numbers to come and see what could be the ideal range.
Comment by Simply Som on 3 May 2008:

“But general sentiment seems to be rejection. Week two will of course reveal all, the attrition should give the clearest picture.”

as it has been released in mutiplexes from today,the 2nd week may not look as bad as we expect.
Comment by jayshah on 3 May 2008:

Satyam, agree this could have easily been 30Cr in week one even with some rejection!

Now it looks more like the total for the film will be less than what ’should’ have been the opening week total!
Comment by sandy on 3 May 2008:

Maybe…just MAYBE Tashan’s week 2 will be its week 1. That’s being optimistic I know, but then, this week and even the next one hardly has any releases.
Comment by satyam on 3 May 2008:

I think it’s done quite decently in the ‘heartland’. whether it holds up there remains to be seen. But even the Delhi 1.73 crore figure given all the issues is actually quite impressive. Of course Bombay supplies most of the gross and when you have a 1.95 crore start here it’s really uphill after this. Plus the feel of the film will not have too many takers here (though I’ve heard that again single screens reacted quite positively to this). I mean the whole problem we face with tashan is gauging what a 15 crore figure means in the absence of most multiplexes. I don’t think it’s a bad number in that sense. Not enough to make the film a success or anything. But if one correlated this only with non-multiplexes (it released only in some across the country) I don’t one would find too many films doing better than this.
Comment by satyam on 3 May 2008:

And as Som suggests it could with some luck match this figure in week 2 because of the multiplexes. However the problem is that the media has trashed this everywhere and it might be too late to get a big multiplex initial. But also we saw Saawariya get off to a fantastic start and then not end up with more than 18 crores. Here we’re talking about a film that’s being released in multiplexes in week 2 and faces a mountain of ridicule from the media. But if it can get a good 2-3 days here and if the single/double screens hold up the figure could nonetheless be matched.

Of course the decent first week in the North can often be an illusion also. That indicates more initial appeal, not necessarily long term stability. JBJ had 2.38 crores in week 1 in Delhi (same as JA 7 months later). It still collapsed in week 2.
Comment by jayshah on 3 May 2008:

Also some of the multiplex audience may have ended up being part of the single screen audience anyway.
Comment by satyam on 3 May 2008:

Yes true Jay. This is certainly true for a certain percentage of the audience. I know quite a few people who went to good single or double screens to watch this one.
Comment by rks on 3 May 2008:

Trendingwise UMAH has been decent.