JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – U Me Aur Hum reasonably steady…

Note all numbers are from IndiaFm

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

No notable new releases to report on

Past Releases

U Me Aur Hum & Krazzy 4

U Me Aur Hum steadied reasonably in its second week. A fairly disappointing first week, the debut directorial vehicle for Ajay Devgan performed better, whereas Krazzy 4 suffered a huge drop after its decent opening. A role reversal of sorts for both movies, it appears U Me Aur Hum will win the long term battle.

UMAH Week 2 vs UMAH Week 1
57% Mumbai means UMAH fell by 57% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 57%
Gandhinagar 57%
Himmatnagar 28%
Baroda 35%
Bharuch 46%
Ahmedabad 20%
Pune 56%
Goa 52%
Nasik -284%
Delhi 36%
Noida 35%
Kaushambi 61%
Gurgaon 51%
Raipur 49%
Nagpur 45%
Faridabad 44%
Indore 75%
Guwahati 18%
Jaipur 59%
Kota 50%
Kolkatta 58%
Darjeeling 58%
Bangalore 56%
Chennai 64%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 48%
The rock steady Ahmedebad and Delhi have to an extent offset the falls seen in Mumbai, Kolkatta and Bangalore. Also the film appears to be far more steadier in smaller centres such as Himmatnager, Baroda and Guwahati.

Using my own UMAH Week 1 Total of 12.0-13.0Cr, the UMAH Week 2 Total = 52% * (12.0-13.0) = 6.2-6.8Cr

U Me Aur Hum 2 Week Total = 12.0-13.0Cr(Week 1) + 6.2-6.8Cr(Week 2) = 18.2 – 19.8Cr

Verdict – Below Average

Overall U Me Aur Hum is an underperformer. The opening week was relatively low for a movie this size, with the attraction of Ajay-Kajol combo and Ajay Devgan’s directorial debut. The second week has shown some resistance, suggesting the movie has found some appreciation but the trend is not spectacular.

Much more would have been expected especially considering a lot of promotion was undertaken for the movie. The music too was different and the promo’s appeared to be fresh. With the huge release of Tashan, U Me Aur Hum will probably fall significantly in the coming week, so it looks set to get to around 25Cr which is a below average performer.

Krazzy 4 Week 2 vs Krazzy 4 Week 1
72% Mumbai means Krazzy 4 fell by 72% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 72%
Gandhinagar 78%
Himmatnagar 44%
Ahmedabad 67%
Baroda 53%
Bharuch 61%
Pune -5094%
Goa 64%
Nasik -76%
Delhi 69%
Noida 71%
Kaushambi 77%
Gurgaon 75%
Bareilly 58%
Faridabad 70%
Indore 82%
Raipur 63%
Nagpur 44%
Lucknow 73%
Aurangabad 49%
Ujjain 57%
Sehore 38%
Guwahati 18%
Kolkatta 70%
Darjeeling 75%
Jaipur 62%
Kota 63%
Bangalore 74%
Chennai 72%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 70%
I will wait for confirmation on the Mumbai number (for now I have assumed 90lakhs). The other major centres like Delhi, Ahmedebad, Kolkatta, Bangalore and Chennai all fell hugely all around the 70% mark. Very few centres showed resistance, overall the all-India fall was a huge 70%.

Using my own Krazzy 4 Week 1 Total of 14.0-15.0Cr, the Krazzy 4 Week 2 Total = 30% * (14.0-15.0) = 4.2-4.5Cr

Krazzy 4 2 Week Total = 14.0-15.0Cr(Week 1) + 4.2-4.5Cr(Week 2) = 18.2 – 19.5Cr

Verdict – Flop

Despite a good opening weekend mainly due to good publicity, Krazzy 4 has cap-sized significantly suggesting the movie hasn’t worked overall. With competition increasing, Krazzy 4 will probably break the 20Cr barrier at best.

Khuda Kay Liya

In its third week, Khuda Kay Liya was rock steady. Recording another 0.4-0.5Cr, falling minimally compared to week two. Overall the film has netted between 1.5-2.0Cr. A very small release, the superb resistance suggests the film has found appreciation amongst a small niche audience, especially in Mumbai and Delhi. Overall the film is an above average performer.

1-2-3

In its fourth week, 1-2-3 collected around 20Lakhs to take its total to approx. 15.2-16.1Cr. The film is a below average performer.

Race

In its fifth week now, Race collected around 0.9-1.0Cr. The film’s total is approximately 54.6-58.0Cr and is a hit.

January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)

February 2008
Mithya : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 56.9 – 59.6Cr (Superhit)

March 2008
Black & White : 4.9 – 5.2Cr (Flop)
Race : 54.6 – 58.0Cr (Hit)
1-2-3 : 15.2 – 16.1Cr (Below Average)

April 2008
Khuda Kay Liya : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Above Average)
U Me Aur Hum : 18.2 – 19.8Cr (Below Average)
Krazzy 4 : 18.2 – 19.5Cr (Flop)

2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)

70Cr +
Om Shanti Om

60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome, Taare Zameen Par

50Cr+
Partner

40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa

30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met

20Cr+
Dhamaal

10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum