Kolkata city seems to have fallen by approx.50% and so is Hyderabad.but the interesting thing is BOI has a drop of 34% for West Bengal, dont know how is that possible when the Kolkata city from where the major % of revenue comes has fallen by 50%.
Centers like Mumbai, DelhI,Ahemadabad and Gurgaon are all the same where the fall is minimal and are responsible for JA holding up really well in its 3rd week.
First off Nahata says that the weekend is the only time when collections are somewhat fair. But Nahata’s numbers actually confirm Taran’s:
The Bombay number is the same as Taran’s with 2 unreceived theaters (Taran mentioned 5 unreceived ones)
Baroda is 4.04 lakhs with 2 unreceived theaters (Taran had 4.49 lakhs)
Ahmedabad is identical
Bhavnagar is 1.88 lakhs (Taran had 2.55 lakhs)
Nahata has Nasik a lakh higher
Delhi is a lakh lower than Taran, Noida is identical
Calcutta is 20 lakhs higher
Ujjain week 3 for Taran is actually being called week 2 by Nahata
Some of the centers are not common but just about everything else that is seems to be the same. Calcutta is the only one that’s different.
Remember Taran has an average drop of 65%. That didn’t just come about because of one center. One still has to make that leap and assume that everything where Taran has big drops are incomplete numbers when other than Calcutta nothing else in Nahata’s numbers confirms this.
But there’s other stuff. So with Taran you have to account for 5 unreceived Bombay theaters. With Nahata just 2. In other words Nahata’s number is effectively lower than Taran’s. Much as his first week Delhi number was 40 lakhs lower than Taran’s with no unreceived theater mentioned.
Ultimately the key to JA besides the fact that this film just seems to perform on the weekends is about 3 major metros — Bombay, Delhi, Ahmedabad. These have really been it for the film with some pockets elsewhere. But the latter cannot lift the gross the way these three can.
My 3 week figure on JA wouldn’t be more than the lower end of Jay’s range.
Incidentally there is a reason why the media has such mixed reports on the film with hardly any prominent sources calling it a hit. This is a film that the media loved in terms of the reviews and this is the kind of liberal message film that the media loves to support. Despite this they’re not all getting on the hit side, not even a plurality is. Now CDI or TZP started slow and picked up in a huge way. clearly that didn’t happen with JA though it’s stable in some parts. Hence the media reaction. Plus let’s not forget that JA is a remarkably expensive film. There’s no comparison with the budget of a TZP or a CDI. The idea that this film is a hit at this point let alone a superhit beggars belief. And of course no one can show the math on how this is possible beyond fictitious numbers on budget and distributor’s cost and so forth.
The film falls into the ‘also ran’ category as far as I’m concerned. A performance worse than this would have been an outright flopping! Incidentally Don also faced the same media reception with not many willing to call it a hit. Given that SRK is such a media darling this was again surprising. But the numbers again reveal the film did about decently, that was it, but more was expected from such a major film. With not many incomplete centers the film fell 62% with Taran in week 2!
So let’s not keep such a low bar for JA, as if it’s just a HB! It’s been reasonably stable in pockets, very limited pockets, even here it’s hardly been a CDI or a TZP! But somehow the fact that the film hasn’t completely flopped and is doing HB kind of numbers at many times the budget is supposedly great business! Of course those who want to follow BOI’s fictions are welcome to do so. I don’t!
I should say at the end that Jay’s numbers and methodology once again stand confirmed. I have a disagreement on his discounting all the centers that fell by 65% or more this time since these were more than half on Taran’s list (and were not mentioned as incomplete) but in any case my total on the film still falls on the lower side of his range.
As I see it the film will probably make 48-50 crores, the higher end if it’s lucky. The film has done no more than a Don. I think the gross means more than a Don for the obvious reasons. But this has been a rather tepid performance and only one notch or two removed from being a total flop. To my mind it never gets beyond the semi-hit category, this based on trending, otherwise I’d give it even less. At 50 crores (if it gets there) it would basically double its initial.
Both Taran and Nahata seems to have limited contacts and reporting … JA was running in more than 13 cinemas in Kolkata due to lack of any new release … plus no mention of the outskirts.
I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3 … if so dont think 65 prints would had been released for the Telegu dubbed version in 4th wek.
Satyam, I think that’s a persuasive analysis: the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping. Once we add some crores for the centers where it was banned, it has done decently, perhaps creditably given the genre, etc. But it is not a clean hit in my book.
Re: “I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3″
That’s actually very believable, and creditable too: Om Shanti Om and Saawariya played in 12-13 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 1 (more screens, as 2-3 of these were multiplexes), so 7 in week 3 for Jodha-Akbar isn’t bad at all. By the third week, I don’t think Om Shanti Om was in many, if any, more.
The Telugu prints don’t have any direct correlation with the Hindi ones, because recall that a very sizeable % of Hyderabad’s population has Urdu as a first language, and not Telugu.
By the way had the film released everywhere the final gross would’ve been a bit higher but the initial would actually have been higher relative to final gross since in most of those places the film isn’t doing well! At the very least the trending trajectory wouldn’t have been better than the one we see now.
Infact, Nahata has a subtle change in tone in his commentary … this again re-establishes the fact that JA is doing well contrary to expectations of a few.
Paddy: The ‘non-response’ of the kind you’re providing here where ridicule is substituted for a rebuttal or the lack thereof (!) is also one that I’m fairly used to!
Qalandar: I was about to make a similar point on Hyderabad! The Telugu audience in Andhra is many times what the Hindi/Urdu audience is. Hindi/Urdu films are restricted to the twin cities more or less while Telugu films cover the entire state and this is a huge movie going population (Vikram’s Anniyan even though it was a blockbuster in both Tamil and Telugu actually grossed more in Telugu!). Even in the city of Hyderabad (as you’ve pointed out) Telugu films on average gross way more than Hindi films! A Pokkiri grossed 42 crores here. Now this is considered the biggest hit of Telugu cinema but consider how enormous that figure is! We still call most films that do a similar amount hits in Hindi! There are other hits there that do 15 or 20 or 30 crores fairly routinely. In the meantime a Hindi film that opens around 80 or 90 lakhs or sometimes a bit higher is supposed to be extraordinary!
And a measure of the strength of the film industry in Andhra can be gauged from the fact that roughly as many Telugu films are made in a year as Hindi ones! (~220+; an equal number are made in Tamil). This is pretty astounding…I remember reading somewhere (don’t know how reliable the source is) that 40% of ALL cinemas in India are in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu….
Btw Ravi, my Yamadonga DVD was delivered yesterday. Work’s been crazy, but I popped it in to see if it was working fine, of course the Naachore song…man this is a good transfer! and must say I really like the lyrics of that song, they’re such fun…
Yep satyam, there is no comparison between Hindi and Telugu in Andhra…there it’s Hindi that is the “small regional language” where cinema is concerned, and Telugu that is the “national behemoth” — as it should be; I am actually very happy that some Hindi films are now getting dubbed. For years the Hindi filmmakers have neglected this market, and it’s pretty ridiculous that a Beowulf was getting dubbed in Telugu but not Hindi films. Now with films like Krrish, Dhoom 2 (I think), Guru, and now Jodha-Akbar, I think we are seeing greater awareness of the huge commercial potential of the Telugu market on Bollywood’s part…
Firstly, Taran’s numbers for Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, etc were all incomplete. There is no reason to doubt that obvious fact. Nahata’s reported center total from 13 cinemas in Kolkjata is indicative enough. So there is hardly any reason to believe that the film has fallen by 65% all over india leaving a few so called ‘pockets’.
Since Nahata doesnt get figures from the South, there is no reason to believe the film has crashed there … spreading constant propaganda doesnt change the facts.
“Incidentally there is a reason why the media has such mixed reports on the film with hardly any prominent sources calling it a hit.”
Just bullshit … every prominent sources are calling the movie hit … have given thumbs up and waiting for the movie to collect 50 crores net before declaring the verdict … incidentally the movie has crossed 50 crores net and will be eventually labeled a Hit (if not more) when the weekly figures get updated.
“The idea that this film is a hit at this point let alone a superhit beggars belief. And of course no one can show the math on how this is possible beyond fictitious numbers on budget and distributor’s cost and so forth.”
This is exactly the IBOS propaganda against the movie that satyam is desperately clinging on to undermine the movie. Every math had been clear … it takes propaganda to ignore the obvious and keep spreading ‘imaginations’ consistently!
JA is not trending as well as TZP/CDI … that doesnt mean anything less than TZP/CDI is just above flopping .. thats silly … JA is trending quite well despite the obstacles and lets not forget TZP/CDI are blockbusters . Satyam seems to be in a make-believe world where there are just Flops or Blockbusters
And yes the Don analogy is as absurd as its gets here … anyways, DON was a Hit in India, and one man’s propaganda cant change the facts.
In fact if hits in Hindi were performing relative to hits in Tamil or Telugu more often we’d routinely see 100 crore or more hits! It is partly true that as a historic matter theaters per capita are the highest in TN (this is true at least partly because cinema has always been tied in with politics in this state and therefore the phenomenon of traveling or mobile theaters was a much exploited resource here) and Andhra is also higher than most Hindi markets but also because Bombay has been a shrinking industry since the early 80s. The cinema does not speak to most of its potential audience. Now it is true that things have been better in recent years where most of the big hits and even not so big hits have been universal ones. Perhaps Bollywood is moving in the right direction to some degree, although one has to be careful even here. Because some of the small centers often start showing impressive collections and then one realises that a multiplex opened up there not so long ago! So multiplex economics is being reproduced everywhere. A classic example is Guwahati which now regularly shows up on the list of centers precisely because it had a multiplex opening a year or two ago. The reason this makes a difference is because you’re still not maximizing your audience in those small centers.
The other important point to be made is that the Hollywood blockbuster model is only being followed at one end of the equation and not the other. Most of the time there are huge initials and films either double these or do just a bit more in the final analysis. As long as the film remains somewhat stable after the initial it gets to a big number and the media is happy to call it a big success. But no accounting is ever done of budgets, of the cost involved in flooding the market with prints, the enormous advertising costs involved, and so forth.
The Lost world opened to 92m in the US, went on to do 220m. So it doubled its initial and then added 36m. It was considered disappointing by many. Why? Because Jurassic Park opened at 60m and made about 360m. 6 times the initial! This is an extraordinary example but blockbusters in Hollywood routinely double the initial and are called disappointments (Godzilla exactly doubled its initial and was more or less treated as a flop). Even a bit more doesn’t satisfy the studio concerned.
But take Bollywood. Even the biggest hits. D2 opens at 35 crores roughly, doubles the gross and adds 15 crores. Excellent by Bollywood standards only. OSO was less than this. It’s not that Bollywood standards are completely different. Take LRM. The film opened around 20-21 crores and did three and a half times that in the final analysis if not more. And we’ve seen this with TZP or CDI as well. Admittedly these were smaller films and started slow. But these films didn’t really start off with low print counts in the major markets! The prints were increased elsewhere. No one starts off in BOmbay with a low print count. But these films were liked that much and in each case made roughly 3 times the initial (TZP probably did a bit more). One could multiply the examples.
The point I’m trying to make is that Hollywood’s accounting isn’t run by aliens! In India it ought to be something similar (by the way it is quite similar in the South where films do not get a hit tag that easily and certainly not just based on initial; a minimal run in terms of number of weeks is expected) but isn’t. As a result we have the absurdity of JA being called a superhit at the very gross at which most were not even calling HB one!
Q - U mean to say JA was running to same number of theatres (7) in Hyderabad as in Ghaziabad? Thats beyond any reasoning and logic … and only those who find satyam’s propaganda as persuasive (;) ) can say such a thing.
Achilles: You seem to be awfully anxious about someone who’s only indulging in “propaganda” (again you have really picked this up well from me, I should have copyrighted the use of this word on NG!) and cannot change “the facts”.. perhaps I should take it as a compliment?!
It actually says “JA rules” i dont even see any average verdict given … infact wait and see the verdict getting updated after week 4 collections get updated
Achilles: buddy I was in Hyderabad when Om Shanti Om and Saawariya released, and I actually counted the number of cinemas playing each: it was in the range of 12-13 (like I said, more screens because 2-3 were multiplexes). Some time later the local Hyderabadi film Fun and Masti released, and was playing in 10 or so cinemas in week 1. By week 3, Saawariya was just about extinct and Om Shanti Om was playing in a bunch of theaters, maybe 7 or maybe a couple more. So 7 for Jodhaa Akbar is not a bad figure at all. If you don’t believe me, I can’t help that, but I am talking about what I have myself seen first hand — not even huge Hindi hits (like Om Shanti Om) play on many more screens by the time week 3 rolls around.
Won’t comment on Ghaziabad as I don’t know about it. But I will point out that I suspect (educated guess) that the cinemas in Hyderabad are larger capacity-wise. Maybe in Ghaziabad it is playing in 7 rinkydink single screens, but in Hyderabad, there are several single screens that are huge, and quite plush, and so on. Plus I’m sure Hyderabad has more multiplexes than Ghaziabad (I already noted this above and in my previous comment — 7 cinemas in Ghaziabad and Hyderabad could be more prints in Hyderabad)…
So far from being “beyond any reasoning and logic”, I think I have presented some reason and logic, to show that: (i) 7 is plausible; and (ii) that 7 is actually a pretty good number (by comparing it to a film like Om Shanti Om, that everyone agrees was both a big hit and a big hit in Hyderabad). I might not know much about the box office, but I do know something about Hyderabad, and that’s just how Hindi films are there.
Achilles: Ghaziabad is now pretty much a Delhi satellite town. It’s one of the fastest growing urban areas in the country! Secondly number of cinemas does not automatically mean you have the same kind in each case.
But your problem here is that you are obsessively questioning every print count, cinema count, number, every trade analyst from Taran to Nahata, so on and so forth, pretty much every SINGLE source out there who doesn’t meet your expectations on JA! The onus is on you! So BOI is the one source, the only source you find acceptable! A bit of a stretch? No?!
Of course BOI’s determination on JA is itself a bit of a mystery. I’ve never seen them half as big on krrish or KMG (the Krrish total is 16 crores lower than the IBOS one, the KMG total is 5 crores lower). But on JA they’re getting into dubbed versions and updating just for the weekend figures and what not. I’ve never seen them this charged for a Hrithik film. And of course I see the correlation with Tango here who pretty much took a vow of silence when Krrish came out, migrated to another country when D2 released (only to emerge weeks later and suggest that the D2 initial was not 35 crores but lower by a couple of crores!), now actually go against Nahata on JA. Haven’t quite figured out this mystery I must admit!
Consider this: JA opened at 92 lakhs in Hyderabad. Only at 18 lakhs in Ghaziabad. But d2 opened at 83 lakhs in the latter in Nov ‘06! Again the audience here is probably rarely maximized but the D2 gross indicates that Ghaziabad on a good day wouldn’t be too far behind Hyderabad! 92 lakhs for JA is actually an excellent number for that city. Again relative to Hyderabad the Bangalore gross is now bigger in many instances.
I will second Q here. I have lived in Hyderabad for a number of years. 7 cinemas in 3rd week for a Hindi flick is a good number, at least it was till the time I was in Hyderabad.
Equating BOI with Tango is just another of ur propaganda is utter nonsense … And calling BOI malicious doesnt change Taran’s reporting about it.
Even the likes of Joginder, Abid and Jay Shah has given the movie a semi-hit status after week 3 collections … each have maintained it looks set to be a clean Hit.
All ur negativity and false reporting on JA has turned out to be a damp squib and has resorted you to this … and i dont think its needed to clarify any more on ur problem with JA .. everyone is aware of that fact.
The irony here is even the indiatimes link u have provided isnt portraying the gloomy picture u were determined to paint even before the movie released.
Even Komal has changed his tone in his FI commentary … what he actually says here is that movie is doing good busines despite of not so strong weekdays.
And its a revelation that inspite of all this negativity, u urself has acknowledged the fact that its a semi-hit now.
I dont find u predicting it has crashed today and hence will end as a semi-hit … when its obvious to all that the reality is different than your imagination.
A movie like JA with its historical genre, excessive length, slow pace and high budget … wud take 3-4 weeks to become a Hit. This is not a masala comedy or slick action flick.
But ur constant attempts to dismiss the movie’s BO success is really fascinating … at least to me.
And I have not questioned Komal or Taran … i have always maintained that these guys only reports a few centers that they have contacts in and at times even these reported centers are not complete.
I have been saying this for more than a year and still saying it .. and it doesnt imply I am dismissing anything … BOI is just one of the numerous sources who are positive on this movie … IBOS is a different story with no surprises.
An analogy can be drawn between JA and MP … but JA has already doubled its opening week collections in the following two weeks .. so simply no comparisons trending wise. JA has been accepted much better by the audience than a MP.
JA even received much better reviews from the top critics than MP did.
And if BOI’s figures are fictitious then Taran also loses all credibility as he has published the same figures again and again .. the latest was the 52 crores net report from India.
So does Joginder, Abid and others … as they have given similar numbers. So we have to ignore everyone except our Satyam to convince ourselves otherwise!
And the latest HT article revealed that they dont have much idea about BO collections - net and gross … so u are alone Satyam! (except for the obvious support from IBOS and a handful of fellow abhi-fans).
I think the contentious centres were Pune, Baroda, Bangalore, Kolkatta & Bangalore.
1) I feel right in removing these centres from any analysis
2) Though without these centres and ‘knowing’ how much they really made means my expected week 3 drop of 40% could easily be less or more depending on what these centres yielded
From a model perspective it would be highly ‘unfair’ to include the IndiaFm numbers for these centres. It would systematically drive down the week three figure - I think very unfairly.
Lets take a few examples just on Baroda for example.
For Welcome
Week 1 = 55Lakhs
Week 2 = 33Lakhs
Week 3 = 4Lakhs
IndiaFM indicates a fall of 88% in Baroda in week three….this is highly dubious IMO
For Welcome (Banglaore)
Week 1 = 97Lakhs
Week 2 = 60Lakhs
Week 3 = 6Lakhs
IndiaFM indicates a fall of 90% in Bangalore in week three….again highly dubious
For Welcome Pune went from 1.07Cr in Week 2 to 36Lakhs in week three (67% fall)
For TZP Week 1 Bangalore of 1.12Cr went to only 13Lakhs in week two (88% fall)
I would say there have been a number of un-reported instances so I have avoided using them in the past.
Back to JA
Baroda goes from 29Lakhs, to 21Lakhs to only 4 lakhs (IMO improbable and unfair to use)
Pune goes from 1.13Cr, to 60Lakhs to only 4lakhs (IMO improbable and unfair to use)
Kaushambhi goes from 14lakhs, to 11 lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Lucknow goes from 28Lakhs, to 17Lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Faridabad goes from 19Lakhs, to 11Lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Kolkatta goes from 76Lakhs, to 57Lakhs to only 13lakh (again improbable)
Bangalore goes from 1.18Cr, to 71Lakhs to only 4lakh (again improbable)
Chennai goes from 36Lakh, to 27Lakhs to only 3lakh (again improbable)
I think its very important to acknowledge that the film was ’steady’ in all centres in week 2. More than steady really. There is no crash at all, if anything all these centres have fallen between 25-50%.
The week three figures however all show drops of 65%+, in some cases 90% and I think this is statistically improbable and practically too. Week two crashes are possible, but week three to this extent are highly highly unlikely.
Now with FI Baroda is still 4lakhs (3 unrecieved), Kolkatta 33Lakhs, Faridabad 2Lakhs - so on that count Film Info barring Kolkatta hasn’t really solved the issue. But looking at Kolkatta movie from 76L, to 57L to 33L looks plausible and fair. And I would assume that also looking at Hyderabad week 3 figure that ‘at least’ the big cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Pune should be behaving well. Well thats how I would give it. I would give benefit of the doubt based on the trending of Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedebad & now it seems Kolkatta.
And using IndiaFM week 3 would affect the figures drastically. So I think this case is more about the ‘liklihood’ of the IndiaFm scenario happening and I would bet against it.
Achilles: I’m still counting! The number of responses being generated from your side by my last one! Regrettably I have nothing to add to what I’ve stated comprehensively in the earlier response! When there’s something more substantive or serious from your side I might issue as many responses as you have here. But so far I see anger and ridicule on your side, not a case being made!
“JA was running in more than 13 cinemas in Kolkata due to lack of any new release … plus no mention of the outskirts.
I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3 … if so dont think 65 prints would had been released for the Telegu dubbed version in 4th week.”
If Nahata has not mentioned any missing or unreported centers within the bracket, then it is quite believable that the numbers are right.when Nahata does not have complete numbers, he always makes it a point to mention it unlike Taran.
Based on Film info numbers, i can conclude the big cities have performed well in the 3rd week, have all shown drops in between 25-50%.only exceptions have been Ghaziabad(ban has definitely affected) and Noida where it has fallen by 65%.Faridabad too has seen a big fall, though i am not really sure.
Satyam - I would had ‘ considered’ about making a case (in ur terms) only if ur huge propaganda comment were even a bit substantial except for its size … unfortunately or fortunately i dont have habit of writing excessive lengthy comments. So keep counting as u really dont have anything substantial to add … u are hell bent to prove by crook that Ja has crashed all over … so more power to u
OK … Since i m in Kolkata at present, i can prove that Nahata’s total for Kolkata is incomplete …
JA in its 4th week is playing to 11 cinemas inside Kolkata city. I have the list of another 3-4 precise cinemas in the outskirts. So actually JA is running to 14 cinemas in week 4 here (my local newspaper at times misses the outside city listings).
How can JA have been playing to just 13 cinemas in week 3?
Lets not forget Black and White has been released to 22 cinemas here .. i am personally aware that quite a few of them were running JA till last week, not sure about others.
The point here is the 13 cinemas is not the complete picture for JA week 3 in Kolkata.
again it goes beyond any reasoning why Satyam is hell bent on proving that JA is not doing well,has rather crashed every where barring few metros. Mumbai, Delhi,Ahemadabad,Hyderabad,Kolkata,Gurgaon, all these big centers have held up really well and i am quite sure Bangalore Chennai and pune too must be very strong.when a movie is doing well in those centers from where the maximum percentage of revenue comes, dont see any particular reason to pull down the movie.Its like expecting a movie like RDB or DCH to do well in each and every pockets in India.JA is ofcourse not like an OSO or a D2 or Welcome which has the potential to work in A,B and C centers.Keeping aside the budget, the movie has put up some good collections and is trending rather well Which is certainly a good thing considering the genre.
On Ghaziabad, sometimes these trade journals have about a 20lakh differential.
So hypothetically I think it is what happened with Guru and JA
Week 1 IndiaFM reported X and Y for Delhi and Ghaziabad
Week 1 FI reported X+20lakhs and Y-20lakhs for Delhi and Ghaziabad (with Guru this was the case with BoC numbers not FI)
Ok som, wasn’t aware of ban. In any case I would bucket performers like the following
Super performers
RDB, LRM, CDI, TZP - falls of 30% per week (take the initial/ total gross)
Very good performers
OSO, D2, Krrish, Fanaa, Welcome - falls of 40% per week on average
Steady performers
Don, Bhagam Bhag, TRRP - falls of 50% per week on average
Personally I would put JA based on numbers so far in between steady and very good. Even though it is averaging 40% falls so far, it didn’t get the great opening that OSO, D2, Fanaa, Krrish or Welcome got. So it is playing catch up. And its third week fall is actually better than all these films. Still won’t outgross these movies except Fanaa though.
So it is a good performer, not extra-ordinary though. But still positive rather than negative.
“the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping. it is not a clean hit in my book.”
avoided flopping!! what are you saying yaar?? look at the numbers and the trending.40% fall in the 2nd week, even less in the 3rd week is that what we expect a flop or an average movie to trend!!!if the massive budget is what forcing you not to accept it as a good success, you should also remember that the entire budget is not going to be recovered from the theatrical collections in India alone, overseas(it is huge) and other rights should also be taken into consideration.
Nandan
Paradise
Priya
Navina
Star Theater
Jaya
Inox City Center
Inox Elgin Road
89 Cinemas Swabhumi
Fame highland Park
Adlabs Salt Lake
Sanskriti Lok Mancha (Burdwan)
89 Cinemas Durgapur
Inox Darjeeling
Jay:one should always take into consideration the budget and the trending of the movie.it does not make any sense if a 50 cr budgeted movie gets a 20 cr opening and trends very well to reach 50 cr or so at the end.the people may have immensely appreciated the movie, but commercially it is not that a profitable venture for its producers, considering the investment.
a movie like TZP or CDI getting an opening of 20 cr and making 50 cr at the end will be more profitable for its producers than a movie like KANK or JA doing the same, the stake is much bigger and higher for the latter ones.
Shetty: your comment proves my point: you have shown six cinemas where it is playing (2 multiplexes, so perhaps multiple prints there) in Hyderabad (excluding Telugu prints, as both Axchilles, and myself, and FI, have been doing). That is perfectly consistent with what I’ve been saying. This is a good performance for a Hindi film in the third week in Hyderabad, even Om Shanti Om was very comparable (can’t say about Welcome as I wasn’t in Hyd at the time). I don’t see what I have said that’s led you to make snide comments — Achilles’ statement that it not believable that it could be playing on 7 in Ghaziabad and 7 in Hyderabad (including more prints because of multiplexes) is what I have been arguing against. Not only is that plausible, but it indicates a good run for the film in Hyderabad.
[Aside: note that I am not saying that FI does in fact have the complete figures from Hyderabad, nor am I saying that it is playing in 7 cinemas in fact. I have no way of knowing what the figures are, and my point is simply that it is very believable that a Hindi film enjoying a successful run in Hyderabad would be playing in 7 cinemas in week 3. Many hit films have played in fewer cinemas in week 3 in that city.]
Som: I said what I did based on collections so far, and am hardly suggesting this is some kind of final verdict. You are right that perhaps I have been swayed by the budget, had this been Jab we Met making this kind of money I would have thought it was a blockbuster. And of course I agree that foreign revenues must be taken into account if we speak of the budget.
Re: “And you conveniently forgot to mention about JODHAA AKBAR dubbed version playing in 12+ cinemas”
This is a below the belt shot: Ach and I were discussing Hindi prints only (check out his comment to the effect that if it had only been playing in 7 cinemas, it would make no sense to release 65+ Telugu prints; I disagreed with that and noted that there was no necessary correlation between the two because of the sizeable % of Urdu-speakers in Hyderabad).
Well if it is 6 cinemas in week 4 then that confirms my point that the film is doing well in Hyderabad; ulta it is Ach who has been suggesting that 7 in week 3 or 6 in week 4 or whatever isn’t good enough (and citing Ghaziabad). My point is that IS good enough based on how Hindi films do in Hyderabad.
My verdict so far is that the film has made less than I expected, but has held up well in the important centers like Bombay and Delhi, and of course in Hyderabad, Bangalore, Calcutta, and so on. I wouldn’t call it a clean hit, perhaps because it is such a big and expensive film and in an era where superhit films are expected to make a lot more. It’s not a failure by any means, and maybe if it continues on its path it’s gonna end up bigger.
Q - i given the scenario for the main contention point about Kolkata …
And as for Hyderabad, JA is currently playing in 6 theaters in week 4 after Black n White released .. the figure could have bben more than 7 in week 3. But neither u or me have enuf evidence to seal the deal here.
But there has been some confusion about Kolkata week 3 numbers for which i was mainly skeptical.
Q - Thats a vague answer to cover ur steps … the BO verdict on JA is irrespective of your expectations or what Superhit movies have grossed … coz no one is calling it a SuperHit in India at the moment.
Ach: I wasn’t talking about any other center, and nor was I saying it IS only playing in 7. My point was that your statement to the effect that 7 seems suspiciously low does not hold water, as that’s the way it is in Hyderabad. I am willing to bet that there aren’t many (if any) recent hit Hindi films that were playing at markedly more than 7 theaters in Hyderabad in week 3.
“Either PVR or Prasadz might have had more than one print. So, the 7 cinemas number seems correct.”
Thanks for the info Arun.
So its the print count Nahata is talking about … no wonder the Kolkata reported figure is low in FI … coz he has taken only 13 prints into consideration … the 5 multiplexes alone had more than 10 prints in Kolkata in Week 3.
Dear Q - its vague in the sense u are talking about your expectations point of view … Comparing the 3 weeks gross with Blockbuster movies entire collection and calling it not a clean hit is bias at display.
Ach bhai, many of my ramblings and issues that I have been talking about over the last 1 year or so ( as you have been here from that time I guess) must be clear to you by now.
Dear Achilles — your attempt to browbeat everyone who does not say PRECISELY what you want them to say about Jodha-Akbar’s box office fate is what is “bias at display” IMO, especially when I have already said that mine is not a final verdict but a provisional one.
Som: are those week 3 figures for OSO and CDI? Thanks for posting; does show that they are very much in the same range (CDI probably added prints too after week 1) in terms of cinema counts.
As for what media perception is regarding JA (that Satyam was talking about):
Taran (IndiaFM) - Hit
BoxOfficeIndia - Hit
FilmFare (March issue) - Hit
CNN IBN - Superhit
Sahara Samay - Superhit
NDTV - Hit
Buzz 18 - Hit
Zoom - Refers to it as a Success/HIT in its Entertainment Shows
ETC - HIT
Nikhat Kazmi (Hindusthan Times) - HIT, the Kind last year’s first official Hit ‘Guru’ was.
Joginder (IndiaGlitz) - Hit
Abid (PB/Glamsham) - Semi Hit (after week 3)
Som: those must be PRINT counts for OSO (FI uses those interchangeably, unfortunately). I am pretty sure it opened at 12-13 cinemas, and Saawariya did so at a similar number of cinemas. The multiplexes of course must have had multiple prints.
Tango: if people want to jump on 3-4 words in one comment that’s their prerogative. I don’t see aisa kya gunaah ho gaya agar keh diya to? I honestly don’t see any difference between “avoided being a flop” and “semi-hit”. In both cases I take it our final verdicts will be different depending on final totals.
[PS-- I practice what I preach: for instance, you won't see me giving FI a hard time because they say Guru is "average", or if someone says it's a "hit" not a "superhit". Everyone has a right to interpret the data, and it seems a bit much to throw around accusations of bias based on my "avoided being a flop" bit.]
Som: I think Tango will confirm that FI often uses the two interchangeably. Sometimes you will note one in the long list of figures, and the other word used in the tables (even if the number is the same).
Re: “I mean a movie with a budget of 40 cr has netted around 48 cr from India and still going on, has avoided being a flop?”
This is a fair point.
If it makes achilles feel better, “semi-hit” is not inaccurate as far as my feelings are concerned up to this point. If it continues to rake it in, it’ll be higher.
Som: in fact FI uses them interchangeably even in the scans in this post too: note it says 190 cinemas in the list of figures, and then No. of “prints” = 190 in the table.
“in fact FI uses them interchangeably even in the scans in this post too: note it says 190 cinemas in the list of figures, and then No. of “prints” = 190 in the table.”
thats right, Qalandar.this has always been the case with FI.
Yeah whatever Achilles fels by me JA will only be a hit at 57-58 cr. My stand was crystal clear from day one because Welcome and JA had almosta similar equation.
And I think anyone who has spent more than 5 days on NG can say whether I have ever “propagand[ized]” against Jodha Akbar. In fact for days on end the majority of my NG comments were dedicated to countering IBOS’ own propagandistic commentary against the film. But I resent and resist attempts to tar people as biased or unbiased based on a few stray words in a comment — especially when the accusers are themselves so very partisan in the first place.
“And i meant that ur sayings have come true in most cases TangoBhai … be it IBOS or the negativity here … afterall u have the experience
A couple of desperate propagandist cant fool others with false reports and constant negativity.”
Ach yeah not only you but a lot on neutral members are seeing things. And yes you are right. I have always said- You can fool some of the people some of the times but not all the people all the time.
I doesnt matter what i feel … Q’s earlier statements needed clarification.
Also i never said it will be a Superhit at 57-58 crores .. It needs to cross 60 crores to be in the Superhit bracket … i have been clear on that from Day One.
“Yeah whatever Achilles fels by me JA will only be a hit at 57-58 cr.”
Tango, just tell me is 250% of the distribution price is what it takes to be a HIT?i mean when you say 57-58 cr, that means you are taking the distribution cost to be around 23 cr.if that is the case then it must have been 69 cr(300%) for Welcome to be a superhit and 80 cr (350%) to be a blockbuster.
Even BOI in its Q n A section clearly said no less than 60 crores can make Ja superhit in India, taking the Rajasthan Ban into account.
Thats very fair .. and i m not very sure if Ja has it to cross 60 crores … Race is due in a weks time. But yes, calling it not a clean hit at 57-58 crores speaks for itself.
Achilles as you will remember my end total for Welcome was 72-73 cr, and for Jodhaa Akbar 50 cr worse, 60 cr best(I was going for midpoint) but it will just abt cross 60 cr.
So Ach and Tango to cut the long story short what is the verdict now on JA? I can’t go through the entire thread as it is too long. Is it a hit or a semi hit? BOI and Taran Aadarsh are already calling it a hit. BOI’s benchmark I believe was INR 51 crores (minus Rajasthan).
And Tango what is the probability of JA getting to a Superhit Status in India from hereon?
Ach: taking BOI numbers, i am not sure if JA will cross 60 cr.it seems it may fall by 50% this week considering the 4th weekend has fallen by more than 50%.as per my calculations:
till now it is 48.40 cr
4th week:4.25-4.5 cr
5th week:2.7-3 cr
6th week+:2cr+ (depending on how big/dissapoinment Race is)
in all possibility it should do around 57-58 cr.to cross the 60 cr mark, it needs to sustain really well even after Race releases.
SOM- BOI goes by 200% of distributors share for hit, I go by 200% of distributors cost (including cost of print and publicity.
Anyday, BOI has more contacts with distributors than me or for that matter all others. They have on many occasions put up numbers much before Taran and others.
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
Thanks som- Mumbai looks the same
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Kolkata city seems to have fallen by approx.50% and so is Hyderabad.but the interesting thing is BOI has a drop of 34% for West Bengal, dont know how is that possible when the Kolkata city from where the major % of revenue comes has fallen by 50%.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Centers like Mumbai, DelhI,Ahemadabad and Gurgaon are all the same where the fall is minimal and are responsible for JA holding up really well in its 3rd week.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
First off Nahata says that the weekend is the only time when collections are somewhat fair. But Nahata’s numbers actually confirm Taran’s:
The Bombay number is the same as Taran’s with 2 unreceived theaters (Taran mentioned 5 unreceived ones)
Baroda is 4.04 lakhs with 2 unreceived theaters (Taran had 4.49 lakhs)
Ahmedabad is identical
Bhavnagar is 1.88 lakhs (Taran had 2.55 lakhs)
Nahata has Nasik a lakh higher
Delhi is a lakh lower than Taran, Noida is identical
Calcutta is 20 lakhs higher
Ujjain week 3 for Taran is actually being called week 2 by Nahata
Some of the centers are not common but just about everything else that is seems to be the same. Calcutta is the only one that’s different.
Remember Taran has an average drop of 65%. That didn’t just come about because of one center. One still has to make that leap and assume that everything where Taran has big drops are incomplete numbers when other than Calcutta nothing else in Nahata’s numbers confirms this.
But there’s other stuff. So with Taran you have to account for 5 unreceived Bombay theaters. With Nahata just 2. In other words Nahata’s number is effectively lower than Taran’s. Much as his first week Delhi number was 40 lakhs lower than Taran’s with no unreceived theater mentioned.
Ultimately the key to JA besides the fact that this film just seems to perform on the weekends is about 3 major metros — Bombay, Delhi, Ahmedabad. These have really been it for the film with some pockets elsewhere. But the latter cannot lift the gross the way these three can.
My 3 week figure on JA wouldn’t be more than the lower end of Jay’s range.
Incidentally there is a reason why the media has such mixed reports on the film with hardly any prominent sources calling it a hit. This is a film that the media loved in terms of the reviews and this is the kind of liberal message film that the media loves to support. Despite this they’re not all getting on the hit side, not even a plurality is. Now CDI or TZP started slow and picked up in a huge way. clearly that didn’t happen with JA though it’s stable in some parts. Hence the media reaction. Plus let’s not forget that JA is a remarkably expensive film. There’s no comparison with the budget of a TZP or a CDI. The idea that this film is a hit at this point let alone a superhit beggars belief. And of course no one can show the math on how this is possible beyond fictitious numbers on budget and distributor’s cost and so forth.
The film falls into the ‘also ran’ category as far as I’m concerned. A performance worse than this would have been an outright flopping! Incidentally Don also faced the same media reception with not many willing to call it a hit. Given that SRK is such a media darling this was again surprising. But the numbers again reveal the film did about decently, that was it, but more was expected from such a major film. With not many incomplete centers the film fell 62% with Taran in week 2!
So let’s not keep such a low bar for JA, as if it’s just a HB! It’s been reasonably stable in pockets, very limited pockets, even here it’s hardly been a CDI or a TZP! But somehow the fact that the film hasn’t completely flopped and is doing HB kind of numbers at many times the budget is supposedly great business! Of course those who want to follow BOI’s fictions are welcome to do so. I don’t!
I should say at the end that Jay’s numbers and methodology once again stand confirmed. I have a disagreement on his discounting all the centers that fell by 65% or more this time since these were more than half on Taran’s list (and were not mentioned as incomplete) but in any case my total on the film still falls on the lower side of his range.
As I see it the film will probably make 48-50 crores, the higher end if it’s lucky. The film has done no more than a Don. I think the gross means more than a Don for the obvious reasons. But this has been a rather tepid performance and only one notch or two removed from being a total flop. To my mind it never gets beyond the semi-hit category, this based on trending, otherwise I’d give it even less. At 50 crores (if it gets there) it would basically double its initial.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
So the fall (comparing FI’s week 2 and week 3 reported centers) is roughly 50% right? i.e. it was 8+ for the reported centers last week wasn’t it?
Thanks for posting som.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
And here’s yet another media source not giving it too much domestically:
http://movies.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2855794.cms
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Both Taran and Nahata seems to have limited contacts and reporting … JA was running in more than 13 cinemas in Kolkata due to lack of any new release … plus no mention of the outskirts.
I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3 … if so dont think 65 prints would had been released for the Telegu dubbed version in 4th wek.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Satyam, I think that’s a persuasive analysis: the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping. Once we add some crores for the centers where it was banned, it has done decently, perhaps creditably given the genre, etc. But it is not a clean hit in my book.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Thanks Qalandar..
Comment by Paddy on 12 March 2008:
“The film falls into the ‘also ran’ category as far as I’m concerned.” Yeh term kuch suna suna lag raha hai!! IBOS Ahem!
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Re: “I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3″
That’s actually very believable, and creditable too: Om Shanti Om and Saawariya played in 12-13 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 1 (more screens, as 2-3 of these were multiplexes), so 7 in week 3 for Jodha-Akbar isn’t bad at all. By the third week, I don’t think Om Shanti Om was in many, if any, more.
The Telugu prints don’t have any direct correlation with the Hindi ones, because recall that a very sizeable % of Hyderabad’s population has Urdu as a first language, and not Telugu.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
By the way had the film released everywhere the final gross would’ve been a bit higher but the initial would actually have been higher relative to final gross since in most of those places the film isn’t doing well! At the very least the trending trajectory wouldn’t have been better than the one we see now.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Infact, Nahata has a subtle change in tone in his commentary … this again re-establishes the fact that JA is doing well contrary to expectations of a few.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Paddy: The ‘non-response’ of the kind you’re providing here where ridicule is substituted for a rebuttal or the lack thereof (!) is also one that I’m fairly used to!
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Qalandar: I was about to make a similar point on Hyderabad! The Telugu audience in Andhra is many times what the Hindi/Urdu audience is. Hindi/Urdu films are restricted to the twin cities more or less while Telugu films cover the entire state and this is a huge movie going population (Vikram’s Anniyan even though it was a blockbuster in both Tamil and Telugu actually grossed more in Telugu!). Even in the city of Hyderabad (as you’ve pointed out) Telugu films on average gross way more than Hindi films! A Pokkiri grossed 42 crores here. Now this is considered the biggest hit of Telugu cinema but consider how enormous that figure is! We still call most films that do a similar amount hits in Hindi! There are other hits there that do 15 or 20 or 30 crores fairly routinely. In the meantime a Hindi film that opens around 80 or 90 lakhs or sometimes a bit higher is supposed to be extraordinary!
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
And a measure of the strength of the film industry in Andhra can be gauged from the fact that roughly as many Telugu films are made in a year as Hindi ones! (~220+; an equal number are made in Tamil). This is pretty astounding…I remember reading somewhere (don’t know how reliable the source is) that 40% of ALL cinemas in India are in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu….
Comment by Ravi on 12 March 2008:
FYI guys, people in Andhra are crazy about movies, have always been and have not seen anything changed on that aspect.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Btw Ravi, my Yamadonga DVD was delivered yesterday. Work’s been crazy, but I popped it in to see if it was working fine, of course the Naachore song…man this is a good transfer! and must say I really like the lyrics of that song, they’re such fun…
Comment by Ravi on 12 March 2008:
I got the dvd last week Q bhai, his dances were amazing, too good.
Mamta is one hot chick.
Comment by Ravi on 12 March 2008:
There was another movie that I got Q bhai, “Chandamama” which is supposed to be good , see if you can get that also.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Yep satyam, there is no comparison between Hindi and Telugu in Andhra…there it’s Hindi that is the “small regional language” where cinema is concerned, and Telugu that is the “national behemoth” — as it should be; I am actually very happy that some Hindi films are now getting dubbed. For years the Hindi filmmakers have neglected this market, and it’s pretty ridiculous that a Beowulf was getting dubbed in Telugu but not Hindi films. Now with films like Krrish, Dhoom 2 (I think), Guru, and now Jodha-Akbar, I think we are seeing greater awareness of the huge commercial potential of the Telugu market on Bollywood’s part…
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Will do re: Chandamama…
Mamta… ’nuff said, subha subha kaam se dehaan hath jaayega…
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
LOL … Satyam and his propaganda once again!
Firstly, Taran’s numbers for Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, etc were all incomplete. There is no reason to doubt that obvious fact. Nahata’s reported center total from 13 cinemas in Kolkjata is indicative enough. So there is hardly any reason to believe that the film has fallen by 65% all over india leaving a few so called ‘pockets’.
Since Nahata doesnt get figures from the South, there is no reason to believe the film has crashed there … spreading constant propaganda doesnt change the facts.
“Incidentally there is a reason why the media has such mixed reports on the film with hardly any prominent sources calling it a hit.”
Just bullshit … every prominent sources are calling the movie hit … have given thumbs up and waiting for the movie to collect 50 crores net before declaring the verdict … incidentally the movie has crossed 50 crores net and will be eventually labeled a Hit (if not more) when the weekly figures get updated.
“The idea that this film is a hit at this point let alone a superhit beggars belief. And of course no one can show the math on how this is possible beyond fictitious numbers on budget and distributor’s cost and so forth.”
This is exactly the IBOS propaganda against the movie that satyam is desperately clinging on to undermine the movie. Every math had been clear … it takes propaganda to ignore the obvious and keep spreading ‘imaginations’ consistently!
JA is not trending as well as TZP/CDI … that doesnt mean anything less than TZP/CDI is just above flopping .. thats silly … JA is trending quite well despite the obstacles and lets not forget TZP/CDI are blockbusters . Satyam seems to be in a make-believe world where there are just Flops or Blockbusters
And yes the Don analogy is as absurd as its gets here … anyways, DON was a Hit in India, and one man’s propaganda cant change the facts.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
In fact if hits in Hindi were performing relative to hits in Tamil or Telugu more often we’d routinely see 100 crore or more hits! It is partly true that as a historic matter theaters per capita are the highest in TN (this is true at least partly because cinema has always been tied in with politics in this state and therefore the phenomenon of traveling or mobile theaters was a much exploited resource here) and Andhra is also higher than most Hindi markets but also because Bombay has been a shrinking industry since the early 80s. The cinema does not speak to most of its potential audience. Now it is true that things have been better in recent years where most of the big hits and even not so big hits have been universal ones. Perhaps Bollywood is moving in the right direction to some degree, although one has to be careful even here. Because some of the small centers often start showing impressive collections and then one realises that a multiplex opened up there not so long ago! So multiplex economics is being reproduced everywhere. A classic example is Guwahati which now regularly shows up on the list of centers precisely because it had a multiplex opening a year or two ago. The reason this makes a difference is because you’re still not maximizing your audience in those small centers.
The other important point to be made is that the Hollywood blockbuster model is only being followed at one end of the equation and not the other. Most of the time there are huge initials and films either double these or do just a bit more in the final analysis. As long as the film remains somewhat stable after the initial it gets to a big number and the media is happy to call it a big success. But no accounting is ever done of budgets, of the cost involved in flooding the market with prints, the enormous advertising costs involved, and so forth.
The Lost world opened to 92m in the US, went on to do 220m. So it doubled its initial and then added 36m. It was considered disappointing by many. Why? Because Jurassic Park opened at 60m and made about 360m. 6 times the initial! This is an extraordinary example but blockbusters in Hollywood routinely double the initial and are called disappointments (Godzilla exactly doubled its initial and was more or less treated as a flop). Even a bit more doesn’t satisfy the studio concerned.
But take Bollywood. Even the biggest hits. D2 opens at 35 crores roughly, doubles the gross and adds 15 crores. Excellent by Bollywood standards only. OSO was less than this. It’s not that Bollywood standards are completely different. Take LRM. The film opened around 20-21 crores and did three and a half times that in the final analysis if not more. And we’ve seen this with TZP or CDI as well. Admittedly these were smaller films and started slow. But these films didn’t really start off with low print counts in the major markets! The prints were increased elsewhere. No one starts off in BOmbay with a low print count. But these films were liked that much and in each case made roughly 3 times the initial (TZP probably did a bit more). One could multiply the examples.
The point I’m trying to make is that Hollywood’s accounting isn’t run by aliens! In India it ought to be something similar (by the way it is quite similar in the South where films do not get a hit tag that easily and certainly not just based on initial; a minimal run in terms of number of weeks is expected) but isn’t. As a result we have the absurdity of JA being called a superhit at the very gross at which most were not even calling HB one!
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Q - U mean to say JA was running to same number of theatres (7) in Hyderabad as in Ghaziabad? Thats beyond any reasoning and logic … and only those who find satyam’s propaganda as persuasive (;) ) can say such a thing.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Achilles: You seem to be awfully anxious about someone who’s only indulging in “propaganda” (again you have really picked this up well from me, I should have copyrighted the use of this word on NG!) and cannot change “the facts”.. perhaps I should take it as a compliment?!
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Qalandar: That stat is quite right. In fact Andhra might be second only to TN in terms of cinema penetration.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
As for the source given here:
http://movies.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2855794.cms
It actually says “JA rules” i dont even see any average verdict given … infact wait and see the verdict getting updated after week 4 collections get updated
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Achilles: buddy I was in Hyderabad when Om Shanti Om and Saawariya released, and I actually counted the number of cinemas playing each: it was in the range of 12-13 (like I said, more screens because 2-3 were multiplexes). Some time later the local Hyderabadi film Fun and Masti released, and was playing in 10 or so cinemas in week 1. By week 3, Saawariya was just about extinct and Om Shanti Om was playing in a bunch of theaters, maybe 7 or maybe a couple more. So 7 for Jodhaa Akbar is not a bad figure at all. If you don’t believe me, I can’t help that, but I am talking about what I have myself seen first hand — not even huge Hindi hits (like Om Shanti Om) play on many more screens by the time week 3 rolls around.
Won’t comment on Ghaziabad as I don’t know about it. But I will point out that I suspect (educated guess) that the cinemas in Hyderabad are larger capacity-wise. Maybe in Ghaziabad it is playing in 7 rinkydink single screens, but in Hyderabad, there are several single screens that are huge, and quite plush, and so on. Plus I’m sure Hyderabad has more multiplexes than Ghaziabad (I already noted this above and in my previous comment — 7 cinemas in Ghaziabad and Hyderabad could be more prints in Hyderabad)…
So far from being “beyond any reasoning and logic”, I think I have presented some reason and logic, to show that: (i) 7 is plausible; and (ii) that 7 is actually a pretty good number (by comparing it to a film like Om Shanti Om, that everyone agrees was both a big hit and a big hit in Hyderabad). I might not know much about the box office, but I do know something about Hyderabad, and that’s just how Hindi films are there.
Comment by Rocky on 12 March 2008:
Q-Mamta… ’nuff said, subha subha kaam se dehaan hath jaayega…
Hath kaam se Hat kar Kahan Jayega???? LOL
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Achilles: Ghaziabad is now pretty much a Delhi satellite town. It’s one of the fastest growing urban areas in the country! Secondly number of cinemas does not automatically mean you have the same kind in each case.
But your problem here is that you are obsessively questioning every print count, cinema count, number, every trade analyst from Taran to Nahata, so on and so forth, pretty much every SINGLE source out there who doesn’t meet your expectations on JA! The onus is on you! So BOI is the one source, the only source you find acceptable! A bit of a stretch? No?!
Of course BOI’s determination on JA is itself a bit of a mystery. I’ve never seen them half as big on krrish or KMG (the Krrish total is 16 crores lower than the IBOS one, the KMG total is 5 crores lower). But on JA they’re getting into dubbed versions and updating just for the weekend figures and what not. I’ve never seen them this charged for a Hrithik film. And of course I see the correlation with Tango here who pretty much took a vow of silence when Krrish came out, migrated to another country when D2 released (only to emerge weeks later and suggest that the D2 initial was not 35 crores but lower by a couple of crores!), now actually go against Nahata on JA. Haven’t quite figured out this mystery I must admit!
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Consider this: JA opened at 92 lakhs in Hyderabad. Only at 18 lakhs in Ghaziabad. But d2 opened at 83 lakhs in the latter in Nov ‘06! Again the audience here is probably rarely maximized but the D2 gross indicates that Ghaziabad on a good day wouldn’t be too far behind Hyderabad! 92 lakhs for JA is actually an excellent number for that city. Again relative to Hyderabad the Bangalore gross is now bigger in many instances.
Comment by Aarohi on 12 March 2008:
I will second Q here. I have lived in Hyderabad for a number of years. 7 cinemas in 3rd week for a Hindi flick is a good number, at least it was till the time I was in Hyderabad.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
I am not anxious ant anyone’s private propaganda .. its just that i cant let such false propaganda prevail without contradicting it with the truth.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Satyam - First tell me a single source apart from you and ur Propaganda oriented IBOS that isnt calling JA a Hit or on its way to Hit?
Rediff BO is not credible … coz if u go by that, then even Mithiya is a Flop and Guru after its entire run did Average business!
You have made a blanket statement that all sources are not calling it a Hit … i want some substantial proof to such propaganda ladden statements.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Equating BOI with Tango is just another of ur propaganda is utter nonsense … And calling BOI malicious doesnt change Taran’s reporting about it.
Even the likes of Joginder, Abid and Jay Shah has given the movie a semi-hit status after week 3 collections … each have maintained it looks set to be a clean Hit.
All ur negativity and false reporting on JA has turned out to be a damp squib and has resorted you to this … and i dont think its needed to clarify any more on ur problem with JA .. everyone is aware of that fact.
The irony here is even the indiatimes link u have provided isnt portraying the gloomy picture u were determined to paint even before the movie released.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And if anyone follows the TV channels in India, he/she will be aware that the movie has been declared a Hit by all.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Even Komal has changed his tone in his FI commentary … what he actually says here is that movie is doing good busines despite of not so strong weekdays.
That itself is a major improvement.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And its a revelation that inspite of all this negativity, u urself has acknowledged the fact that its a semi-hit now.
I dont find u predicting it has crashed today and hence will end as a semi-hit … when its obvious to all that the reality is different than your imagination.
A movie like JA with its historical genre, excessive length, slow pace and high budget … wud take 3-4 weeks to become a Hit. This is not a masala comedy or slick action flick.
But ur constant attempts to dismiss the movie’s BO success is really fascinating … at least to me.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Correction:
*I dont mind u predicting it has crashed today and hence will end as a semi-hit* … we have gone through this time and again.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And comparing JA with the likes of Krrish, D2 or Don is intentionally being silly.
Comment by flora on 12 March 2008:
yes and here for the first time nahata says something good about JA and if nahata says that a movie has fair 3rd weekend then it great for the movie.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And I have not questioned Komal or Taran … i have always maintained that these guys only reports a few centers that they have contacts in and at times even these reported centers are not complete.
I have been saying this for more than a year and still saying it .. and it doesnt imply I am dismissing anything … BOI is just one of the numerous sources who are positive on this movie … IBOS is a different story with no surprises.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
An analogy can be drawn between JA and MP … but JA has already doubled its opening week collections in the following two weeks .. so simply no comparisons trending wise. JA has been accepted much better by the audience than a MP.
JA even received much better reviews from the top critics than MP did.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And if BOI’s figures are fictitious then Taran also loses all credibility as he has published the same figures again and again .. the latest was the 52 crores net report from India.
So does Joginder, Abid and others … as they have given similar numbers. So we have to ignore everyone except our Satyam to convince ourselves otherwise!
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And if we go by HT or Rediff .. m afraid we all have to believe that Guru was an “Average’ film at indian BO.
well, not many will believe such a source.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And the latest HT article revealed that they dont have much idea about BO collections - net and gross … so u are alone Satyam! (except for the obvious support from IBOS and a handful of fellow abhi-fans).
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
I think the contentious centres were Pune, Baroda, Bangalore, Kolkatta & Bangalore.
1) I feel right in removing these centres from any analysis
2) Though without these centres and ‘knowing’ how much they really made means my expected week 3 drop of 40% could easily be less or more depending on what these centres yielded
From a model perspective it would be highly ‘unfair’ to include the IndiaFm numbers for these centres. It would systematically drive down the week three figure - I think very unfairly.
Lets take a few examples just on Baroda for example.
For Welcome
Week 1 = 55Lakhs
Week 2 = 33Lakhs
Week 3 = 4Lakhs
IndiaFM indicates a fall of 88% in Baroda in week three….this is highly dubious IMO
For Welcome (Banglaore)
Week 1 = 97Lakhs
Week 2 = 60Lakhs
Week 3 = 6Lakhs
IndiaFM indicates a fall of 90% in Bangalore in week three….again highly dubious
For Welcome Pune went from 1.07Cr in Week 2 to 36Lakhs in week three (67% fall)
For TZP Week 1 Bangalore of 1.12Cr went to only 13Lakhs in week two (88% fall)
I would say there have been a number of un-reported instances so I have avoided using them in the past.
Back to JA
Baroda goes from 29Lakhs, to 21Lakhs to only 4 lakhs (IMO improbable and unfair to use)
Pune goes from 1.13Cr, to 60Lakhs to only 4lakhs (IMO improbable and unfair to use)
Kaushambhi goes from 14lakhs, to 11 lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Lucknow goes from 28Lakhs, to 17Lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Faridabad goes from 19Lakhs, to 11Lakhs to less than 1lakh (again improbable)
Kolkatta goes from 76Lakhs, to 57Lakhs to only 13lakh (again improbable)
Bangalore goes from 1.18Cr, to 71Lakhs to only 4lakh (again improbable)
Chennai goes from 36Lakh, to 27Lakhs to only 3lakh (again improbable)
I think its very important to acknowledge that the film was ’steady’ in all centres in week 2. More than steady really. There is no crash at all, if anything all these centres have fallen between 25-50%.
The week three figures however all show drops of 65%+, in some cases 90% and I think this is statistically improbable and practically too. Week two crashes are possible, but week three to this extent are highly highly unlikely.
Now with FI Baroda is still 4lakhs (3 unrecieved), Kolkatta 33Lakhs, Faridabad 2Lakhs - so on that count Film Info barring Kolkatta hasn’t really solved the issue. But looking at Kolkatta movie from 76L, to 57L to 33L looks plausible and fair. And I would assume that also looking at Hyderabad week 3 figure that ‘at least’ the big cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Pune should be behaving well. Well thats how I would give it. I would give benefit of the doubt based on the trending of Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedebad & now it seems Kolkatta.
And using IndiaFM week 3 would affect the figures drastically. So I think this case is more about the ‘liklihood’ of the IndiaFm scenario happening and I would bet against it.
Comment by satyam on 12 March 2008:
Achilles: I’m still counting! The number of responses being generated from your side by my last one! Regrettably I have nothing to add to what I’ve stated comprehensively in the earlier response! When there’s something more substantive or serious from your side I might issue as many responses as you have here. But so far I see anger and ridicule on your side, not a case being made!
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
“JA was running in more than 13 cinemas in Kolkata due to lack of any new release … plus no mention of the outskirts.
I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3 … if so dont think 65 prints would had been released for the Telegu dubbed version in 4th week.”
If Nahata has not mentioned any missing or unreported centers within the bracket, then it is quite believable that the numbers are right.when Nahata does not have complete numbers, he always makes it a point to mention it unlike Taran.
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
Again with those Welcome, TZP examples, I left those centres out aswell.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Based on Film info numbers, i can conclude the big cities have performed well in the 3rd week, have all shown drops in between 25-50%.only exceptions have been Ghaziabad(ban has definitely affected) and Noida where it has fallen by 65%.Faridabad too has seen a big fall, though i am not really sure.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Satyam - I would had ‘ considered’ about making a case (in ur terms) only if ur huge propaganda comment were even a bit substantial except for its size … unfortunately or fortunately i dont have habit of writing excessive lengthy comments. So keep counting as u really dont have anything substantial to add … u are hell bent to prove by crook that Ja has crashed all over … so more power to u
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Som - Nahata has mentioned the cinema counts against his center figures … that doesnt neccesarily imply the cinema count is complete for that center.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Satyam - m still waiting for the list that all trade sources have expressed ur imaginary opininons!
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
JA is running in 12 cinemas in Bangalore (week-4) & this is a record. No film from past 10 years has achieved this.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
“that doesnt neccesarily imply the cinema count is complete for that center.”
If i am not wrong, he does mention about the number of unreported ones like he has done it for Mumbai,Baroda etc.
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
Basically what IndiaFm is saying is that Baroda + Pune + Kaushambhi + Lucknow + Faridabad + Kolkatta + Bangalore + Chennai = 30Lakhs roughly
Meanwhile Ahmedebad yields 50Lakhs. This is just very incorrect/unlikely.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
OK … Since i m in Kolkata at present, i can prove that Nahata’s total for Kolkata is incomplete …
JA in its 4th week is playing to 11 cinemas inside Kolkata city. I have the list of another 3-4 precise cinemas in the outskirts. So actually JA is running to 14 cinemas in week 4 here (my local newspaper at times misses the outside city listings).
How can JA have been playing to just 13 cinemas in week 3?
Lets not forget Black and White has been released to 22 cinemas here .. i am personally aware that quite a few of them were running JA till last week, not sure about others.
The point here is the 13 cinemas is not the complete picture for JA week 3 in Kolkata.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
again it goes beyond any reasoning why Satyam is hell bent on proving that JA is not doing well,has rather crashed every where barring few metros. Mumbai, Delhi,Ahemadabad,Hyderabad,Kolkata,Gurgaon, all these big centers have held up really well and i am quite sure Bangalore Chennai and pune too must be very strong.when a movie is doing well in those centers from where the maximum percentage of revenue comes, dont see any particular reason to pull down the movie.Its like expecting a movie like RDB or DCH to do well in each and every pockets in India.JA is ofcourse not like an OSO or a D2 or Welcome which has the potential to work in A,B and C centers.Keeping aside the budget, the movie has put up some good collections and is trending rather well Which is certainly a good thing considering the genre.
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
Jodhaa Akbar Showtimes in Hyderabad
Cine Planet Multiplex (Kompalli)
Prasads Multiplex
PVR Cinemas
Ramakrishna Glitterati
Sangeet 70MM
Talkie Town
Jodhaa Akbar (Telugu) Showtimes in Hyderabad
Jodhaa Akbar (Telugu)
Bhujanga 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Indra 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Mahalaxmi 35MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Mallikarjuna 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Sangeet 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Shanti 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Sharada 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Sreeramulu 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Sri Sairam 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Srinivasa 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Vishnu 70MM
10:30 am, 2:15, 6:00, 9:45 pm
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
“Q - U mean to say JA was running to same number of theatres (7) in Hyderabad as in Ghaziabad? Thats beyond any reasoning and logic”
Lol Ach bhai. Don’t give them importance
Comment by Rocky on 12 March 2008:
Man this much attention to detail is reminding me of the Ballot Count in Florida specially the CHAD Ballots !! LOL
We should send some one to count not the sold tickets but the Punched tickets !! LOL
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
And these are the same people who added GURU Tamil dubbed versions collection to GURU’s nett. I have proof with me
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Hyderabad numbers must be right in the sense that BOI too has 54 laks in Nizam i.e.a 50% fall over the previous week.BOI had 1.07 cr in the 2nd week.
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
On Ghaziabad, sometimes these trade journals have about a 20lakh differential.
So hypothetically I think it is what happened with Guru and JA
Week 1 IndiaFM reported X and Y for Delhi and Ghaziabad
Week 1 FI reported X+20lakhs and Y-20lakhs for Delhi and Ghaziabad (with Guru this was the case with BoC numbers not FI)
Hard to know if this happens alot.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Ghaziabad’s numbers must have been affected by the ban in the 3rd weekend which BOI had also mentioned.
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
“the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping. it is not a clean hit in my book.”
LMAO. Joke of the day
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
BTW Nice entertainment from Yaajooj and Majooj of NG
Would love to see them during DRONA’s release
Comment by jayshah on 12 March 2008:
Ok som, wasn’t aware of ban. In any case I would bucket performers like the following
Super performers
RDB, LRM, CDI, TZP - falls of 30% per week (take the initial/ total gross)
Very good performers
OSO, D2, Krrish, Fanaa, Welcome - falls of 40% per week on average
Steady performers
Don, Bhagam Bhag, TRRP - falls of 50% per week on average
Personally I would put JA based on numbers so far in between steady and very good. Even though it is averaging 40% falls so far, it didn’t get the great opening that OSO, D2, Fanaa, Krrish or Welcome got. So it is playing catch up. And its third week fall is actually better than all these films. Still won’t outgross these movies except Fanaa though.
So it is a good performer, not extra-ordinary though. But still positive rather than negative.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
“the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping. it is not a clean hit in my book.”
avoided flopping!! what are you saying yaar?? look at the numbers and the trending.40% fall in the 2nd week, even less in the 3rd week is that what we expect a flop or an average movie to trend!!!if the massive budget is what forcing you not to accept it as a good success, you should also remember that the entire budget is not going to be recovered from the theatrical collections in India alone, overseas(it is huge) and other rights should also be taken into consideration.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Cinemas playing JA in Kolkata in week 4:
Nandan
Paradise
Priya
Navina
Star Theater
Jaya
Inox City Center
Inox Elgin Road
89 Cinemas Swabhumi
Fame highland Park
Adlabs Salt Lake
Sanskriti Lok Mancha (Burdwan)
89 Cinemas Durgapur
Inox Darjeeling
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Jay:one should always take into consideration the budget and the trending of the movie.it does not make any sense if a 50 cr budgeted movie gets a 20 cr opening and trends very well to reach 50 cr or so at the end.the people may have immensely appreciated the movie, but commercially it is not that a profitable venture for its producers, considering the investment.
a movie like TZP or CDI getting an opening of 20 cr and making 50 cr at the end will be more profitable for its producers than a movie like KANK or JA doing the same, the stake is much bigger and higher for the latter ones.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Shetty: your comment proves my point: you have shown six cinemas where it is playing (2 multiplexes, so perhaps multiple prints there) in Hyderabad (excluding Telugu prints, as both Axchilles, and myself, and FI, have been doing). That is perfectly consistent with what I’ve been saying. This is a good performance for a Hindi film in the third week in Hyderabad, even Om Shanti Om was very comparable (can’t say about Welcome as I wasn’t in Hyd at the time). I don’t see what I have said that’s led you to make snide comments — Achilles’ statement that it not believable that it could be playing on 7 in Ghaziabad and 7 in Hyderabad (including more prints because of multiplexes) is what I have been arguing against. Not only is that plausible, but it indicates a good run for the film in Hyderabad.
[Aside: note that I am not saying that FI does in fact have the complete figures from Hyderabad, nor am I saying that it is playing in 7 cinemas in fact. I have no way of knowing what the figures are, and my point is simply that it is very believable that a Hindi film enjoying a successful run in Hyderabad would be playing in 7 cinemas in week 3. Many hit films have played in fewer cinemas in week 3 in that city.]
Som: I said what I did based on collections so far, and am hardly suggesting this is some kind of final verdict. You are right that perhaps I have been swayed by the budget, had this been Jab we Met making this kind of money I would have thought it was a blockbuster. And of course I agree that foreign revenues must be taken into account if we speak of the budget.
Comment by SHETTY on 12 March 2008:
“This is a good performance for a Hindi film in the third week in Hyderabad”
Correction: Week fourth
And you conveniently forgot to mention about JODHAA AKBAR dubbed version playing in 12+ cinemas
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Q - could u please specify what ur verdict is and based on what collections?
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Re: “And you conveniently forgot to mention about JODHAA AKBAR dubbed version playing in 12+ cinemas”
This is a below the belt shot: Ach and I were discussing Hindi prints only (check out his comment to the effect that if it had only been playing in 7 cinemas, it would make no sense to release 65+ Telugu prints; I disagreed with that and noted that there was no necessary correlation between the two because of the sizeable % of Urdu-speakers in Hyderabad).
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Well if it is 6 cinemas in week 4 then that confirms my point that the film is doing well in Hyderabad; ulta it is Ach who has been suggesting that 7 in week 3 or 6 in week 4 or whatever isn’t good enough (and citing Ghaziabad). My point is that IS good enough based on how Hindi films do in Hyderabad.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Ach: as has been true for quite a while, I’m following Jay’s figures on this as well as all the other films too.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
My verdict so far is that the film has made less than I expected, but has held up well in the important centers like Bombay and Delhi, and of course in Hyderabad, Bangalore, Calcutta, and so on. I wouldn’t call it a clean hit, perhaps because it is such a big and expensive film and in an era where superhit films are expected to make a lot more. It’s not a failure by any means, and maybe if it continues on its path it’s gonna end up bigger.
Comment by Arun on 12 March 2008:
“I m skeptical that JA was screened in just 7 cinemas in Hyderabad in week 3″
I checked the movie listings in the newspaper (for 3rd week). JA was running in six cinemas: PVR, Prasadz, Cineplanet, Talkie Town, Ramakrishna
Either PVR or Prasadz might have had more than one print. So, the 7 cinemas number seems correct.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Q - i given the scenario for the main contention point about Kolkata …
And as for Hyderabad, JA is currently playing in 6 theaters in week 4 after Black n White released .. the figure could have bben more than 7 in week 3. But neither u or me have enuf evidence to seal the deal here.
But there has been some confusion about Kolkata week 3 numbers for which i was mainly skeptical.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Q - Thats a vague answer to cover ur steps … the BO verdict on JA is irrespective of your expectations or what Superhit movies have grossed … coz no one is calling it a SuperHit in India at the moment.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Ach: I wasn’t talking about any other center, and nor was I saying it IS only playing in 7. My point was that your statement to the effect that 7 seems suspiciously low does not hold water, as that’s the way it is in Hyderabad. I am willing to bet that there aren’t many (if any) recent hit Hindi films that were playing at markedly more than 7 theaters in Hyderabad in week 3.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
“Either PVR or Prasadz might have had more than one print. So, the 7 cinemas number seems correct.”
Thanks for the info Arun.
So its the print count Nahata is talking about … no wonder the Kolkata reported figure is low in FI … coz he has taken only 13 prints into consideration … the 5 multiplexes alone had more than 10 prints in Kolkata in Week 3.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Achilles: It might be “vague” to you, but it’s pretty clear to me. And I stand by it.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
According to film info:
In the 3rd week OSO collected 30 laks from 9 cinemas, CDI collected 28 laks from 10 cinemas in Hyderabad.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Dear Q - its vague in the sense u are talking about your expectations point of view … Comparing the 3 weeks gross with Blockbuster movies entire collection and calling it not a clean hit is bias at display.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Ach bhai, many of my ramblings and issues that I have been talking about over the last 1 year or so ( as you have been here from that time I guess) must be clear to you by now.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Dear Achilles — your attempt to browbeat everyone who does not say PRECISELY what you want them to say about Jodha-Akbar’s box office fate is what is “bias at display” IMO, especially when I have already said that mine is not a final verdict but a provisional one.
Som: are those week 3 figures for OSO and CDI? Thanks for posting; does show that they are very much in the same range (CDI probably added prints too after week 1) in terms of cinema counts.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Ya, Qalnadar that is for the 3rd week.OSO was released in 21 cinemas and 11 for CDI as compared to 16 for JA in the first week.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
As for what media perception is regarding JA (that Satyam was talking about):
Taran (IndiaFM) - Hit
BoxOfficeIndia - Hit
FilmFare (March issue) - Hit
CNN IBN - Superhit
Sahara Samay - Superhit
NDTV - Hit
Buzz 18 - Hit
Zoom - Refers to it as a Success/HIT in its Entertainment Shows
ETC - HIT
Nikhat Kazmi (Hindusthan Times) - HIT, the Kind last year’s first official Hit ‘Guru’ was.
Joginder (IndiaGlitz) - Hit
Abid (PB/Glamsham) - Semi Hit (after week 3)
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Som: those must be PRINT counts for OSO (FI uses those interchangeably, unfortunately). I am pretty sure it opened at 12-13 cinemas, and Saawariya did so at a similar number of cinemas. The multiplexes of course must have had multiple prints.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
But Qalandar sorry for saying it but your comment “the film has been liked enough that it has avoided flopping” beats me hollow bro!
I mean a movie with a budget of 40 cr has netted around 48 cr from India and still going on, has avoided being a flop?
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
I have no idea Qalandar, Komal says it is the number of cinemas though.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Not talking about the Oversaes though its the makers there too.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Tango: if people want to jump on 3-4 words in one comment that’s their prerogative. I don’t see aisa kya gunaah ho gaya agar keh diya to? I honestly don’t see any difference between “avoided being a flop” and “semi-hit”. In both cases I take it our final verdicts will be different depending on final totals.
[PS-- I practice what I preach: for instance, you won't see me giving FI a hard time because they say Guru is "average", or if someone says it's a "hit" not a "superhit". Everyone has a right to interpret the data, and it seems a bit much to throw around accusations of bias based on my "avoided being a flop" bit.]
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Lets not forget Jay Shah and Sandy’s entertainment Section has labeled JA a Hit. Jay in his column has called it Semi-Hit.
Incidentally Satyam has himself obliged to give a semi-hit status after 3 weks ..ans so is ur own ‘provisional’ verdict.
Anyways, more than that its what the media says thats more important.
And yes another source:
TelegraphIndia - Hit (Leading Kolkata newspaper)
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Som: I think Tango will confirm that FI often uses the two interchangeably. Sometimes you will note one in the long list of figures, and the other word used in the tables (even if the number is the same).
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Re: “I mean a movie with a budget of 40 cr has netted around 48 cr from India and still going on, has avoided being a flop?”
This is a fair point.
If it makes achilles feel better, “semi-hit” is not inaccurate as far as my feelings are concerned up to this point. If it continues to rake it in, it’ll be higher.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Tango - we can all see whats going on … no ones getting fooled here.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Som: in fact FI uses them interchangeably even in the scans in this post too: note it says 190 cinemas in the list of figures, and then No. of “prints” = 190 in the table.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
“in fact FI uses them interchangeably even in the scans in this post too: note it says 190 cinemas in the list of figures, and then No. of “prints” = 190 in the table.”
thats right, Qalandar.this has always been the case with FI.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
And i meant that ur sayings have come true in most cases TangoBhai … be it IBOS or the negativity here … afterall u have the experience
A couple of desperate propagandist cant fool others with false reports and constant negativity.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Thanks Q for addressing my point.
Yeah whatever Achilles fels by me JA will only be a hit at 57-58 cr. My stand was crystal clear from day one because Welcome and JA had almosta similar equation.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
Som: and I suspect FI means “prints” even when it says “cinemas”, but of course I can’t prove it.
Comment by Qalandar on 12 March 2008:
And I think anyone who has spent more than 5 days on NG can say whether I have ever “propagand[ized]” against Jodha Akbar. In fact for days on end the majority of my NG comments were dedicated to countering IBOS’ own propagandistic commentary against the film. But I resent and resist attempts to tar people as biased or unbiased based on a few stray words in a comment — especially when the accusers are themselves so very partisan in the first place.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
“And i meant that ur sayings have come true in most cases TangoBhai … be it IBOS or the negativity here … afterall u have the experience
A couple of desperate propagandist cant fool others with false reports and constant negativity.”
Ach yeah not only you but a lot on neutral members are seeing things. And yes you are right. I have always said- You can fool some of the people some of the times but not all the people all the time.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
I doesnt matter what i feel … Q’s earlier statements needed clarification.
Also i never said it will be a Superhit at 57-58 crores .. It needs to cross 60 crores to be in the Superhit bracket … i have been clear on that from Day One.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
“Yeah whatever Achilles fels by me JA will only be a hit at 57-58 cr.”
Tango, just tell me is 250% of the distribution price is what it takes to be a HIT?i mean when you say 57-58 cr, that means you are taking the distribution cost to be around 23 cr.if that is the case then it must have been 69 cr(300%) for Welcome to be a superhit and 80 cr (350%) to be a blockbuster.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Its 200% of the distributors cost in India is hit Som.
It was around 30 cr with Rajasthan but minus Rajasthan its around 28.5-29 crores.
250% means superhit.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Even BOI in its Q n A section clearly said no less than 60 crores can make Ja superhit in India, taking the Rajasthan Ban into account.
Thats very fair .. and i m not very sure if Ja has it to cross 60 crores … Race is due in a weks time. But yes, calling it not a clean hit at 57-58 crores speaks for itself.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
okay, Thanks Tango!!BTW, BOI has 20-21 cr or 25 cr as the distribution cost minus Rajasthan if Hit is 200 or 250%, whatever is correct.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Achilles as you will remember my end total for Welcome was 72-73 cr, and for Jodhaa Akbar 50 cr worse, 60 cr best(I was going for midpoint) but it will just abt cross 60 cr.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
BOI has its own sets I mine.
It has its own totals for OSO, Sunday, Welcome, Mithya and JA. I am not there slave or follower.
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Yeah Welcome was a Blockbuster at 72-73 crores … JA may end up near to 60 … might just cross 60 if it trends very well (difficult imo).
BOI said 51 crores for Hit and 60 crores for Superhit according to its distribution price without Rajasthan … whats your figures for the verdicts?
Comment by Julie on 12 March 2008:
So Ach and Tango to cut the long story short what is the verdict now on JA? I can’t go through the entire thread as it is too long. Is it a hit or a semi hit? BOI and Taran Aadarsh are already calling it a hit. BOI’s benchmark I believe was INR 51 crores (minus Rajasthan).
And Tango what is the probability of JA getting to a Superhit Status in India from hereon?
Comment by Achilles on 12 March 2008:
Tango Bhai - someone constantly trying to equate u with BOI doesnt mean he is successful.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Julie I think by me it’ll end at hit plus, that is between hit to superhit.
Comment by Simply Som on 12 March 2008:
Ach: taking BOI numbers, i am not sure if JA will cross 60 cr.it seems it may fall by 50% this week considering the 4th weekend has fallen by more than 50%.as per my calculations:
till now it is 48.40 cr
4th week:4.25-4.5 cr
5th week:2.7-3 cr
6th week+:2cr+ (depending on how big/dissapoinment Race is)
in all possibility it should do around 57-58 cr.to cross the 60 cr mark, it needs to sustain really well even after Race releases.
Comment by Tango on 12 March 2008:
Even Welcome is much higher.
SOM- BOI goes by 200% of distributors share for hit, I go by 200% of distributors cost (including cost of print and publicity.
Anyday, BOI has more contacts with distributors than me or for that matter all others. They have on many occasions put up numbers much before Taran and others.