JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Jodha Akbar superb in Week Three…
Note all numbers are from IndiaFm
Reporting Methodology
1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios
New Releases
There were no notable new releases in the past week.
Past Releases
Jodha Akbar continues its strong run into the third week. It had a clear week and took full advantage. The coming week will see the release of Black and White, but Jodha Akbar should still remain the first choice.
JA Week 3 vs JA Week 2
45% Mumbai means JA fell by 45% in Mumbai in Week 3
Mumbai 45%
Ahmedabad 22%
Baroda 79%
Bharuch 64%
Himmatnagar 5%
Bhavnagar 28%
Jamnagar 30%
Pune 92%
Nasik 57%
Goa 69%
Delhi 23%
Kaushambi 92%
Noida 67%
Aligarh 54%
Lucknow 98%
Mathura -5%
Faridabad 83%
Gurgaon 33%
Nagpur 63%
Raipur 44%
Kolkatta 77%
Bangalore 94%
Chennai 87%
Trending
Week 2 drop = 40%
Week 3 drop = 37%
First note that I have ignored any centre that has fallen by more than 65% because it is likely to be under-reported. Key examples are Bangalore, Kolkatta and Noida.
Otherwise the film is performing remarkably well in Ahmedebad and especially in Delhi. Mumbai is slightly under-reported and I will update the same when a suitable number becomes available, but even at the lower total it has only fallen 45%. Overall Jodha Akbar is doing superb business in big cities and is steadier this week in smaller centres. Gross
The JA Week 1 total for the above centres = 9.98Cr (ignoring and centre that fell more than 65%)
The JA Week 3 total for the above centres = 3.76Cr (ignoring and centre that fell more than 65%)
This means that JA’s Week 3 total is 38% of JA’s Week 1 total (3.76/9.98 = 38%)
Using my own JA Week 1 Total of 22.5-23.5Cr, the JA Week 3 Total = 38% * (22.5-23.5) = 8.5-8.8Cr
Jodha Akbar 3 Week Total = 22.5-23.5Cr(Week 1) + 13.4-14.1Cr(Week 2) + 8.5-8.8Cr(Week 3) = 44.4 – 46.4Cr
Verdict – Semi-Hit range (will move up in coming weeks)
Currently Jodha Akbar is in the semi-hit range, but it is likely to make the jump to HIT next week or the week after. It still has an outside chance to get to 60Cr which would be a remarkable achievement since it had a good but not extra-ordinary opening week.
It is clear now though the film has been completely accepted by the big city crowd. Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedebad are posting big numbers and I suspect Kolkatta, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai are still strong. It will emerge the first major hit of the year and could yet be a superhit if it gets close to 58Cr.
Mithya
Mithya fell around 50% in its fourth week to record collections of approx. 0.3-0.4Cr. Its total now stands at 4.7-5.0Cr. The film is an average performer.
Sunday
In its sixth week, Sunday fell around 30% to record about 0.15-0.2Cr to take its total to 18.1-19.0Cr. It is a below average performer that has been fairly steady at the lower end for the past couple of weeks.
Taare Zameen Par
TZP became the second choice for cinegoers after a glorious eleven week run so far. It netted around 0.4-0.5Cr to take its total to 58.4-60.3Cr. Passing the 60Cr mark at the upper end, TZP is a blockbuster in India.
Summary of the Week
Jodha Akbar had a super steady third week and is on its way to becoming the first major hit of the year. TZP, Sunday and Mithya continue to record steady collections.
December 2007
Welcome : 65.0 - 69.4Cr (SuperDuperHit) – 9 Week Total
Taare Zameen Par : 58.4Cr – 60.5Cr (Blockbuster)
January 2008
Halla Bol : 11.6 – 12.3Cr (Flop)
Sunday : 18.1 – 19.0Cr (Below Average)
February 2008
Mithya : 4.7 – 5.0Cr (Average)
Jodha Akbar : 44.4 – 46.4Cr (Semi-Hit range)
2007 – Significant Grosses (note 10Cr+ means 10Cr-20Cr bracket)
70Cr +
Om Shanti Om
60Cr+
Chak De! India, Welcome
50Cr+
Partner, Taare Zameen Par
40Cr+
Guru, Heyy Babby, Bhool Bhulaiyaa
30Cr+
Namastey London, Tara Rum Pum, Shootout At Lokhandwala, Jab We Met
20Cr+
Dhamaal
10Cr+
Honeymoon Travels Pvt Ltd, Bheja Fry, Life in a Metro, Cheeni Kum
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
I think FI would help in estimating drop much more accurately.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
good work Jay!
this week Taran has very few complete centers, anyway the drop cant be more than 40% IMO as Mumbai and Delhi have been very good.not much of fall in these two big centers.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
BTW as rks said FI will help yon in calculating the drop with much more accuracy.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Great stuff as always Jay though I have a difference of opinion this time. It seems to be currently sustaining on the basis of not more than 4-5 major metros. Even Bangalore has fallen by a massive margin this time. But this is true for chennai, Calcutta, Goa, Pune and so forth. And could include a Delhi satellite like Kaushambi or Noida as well as other areas like Lucknow or what have you. Taran does not indicate incomplete totals for any of these places (he does for Bombay). He has an average drop of 65%. I think we can certainly look at Nahata’s numbers also when these become available but it’s not just one or two centers you’re discounting but a number of them. 10-11 centers here have fallen by more than 65% and significantly more at that. The ones that in my view are holding superbly are Bombay, Delhi, Ahmedabad, maybe one or two others. The point I’m trying to make is that in this list as opposed to a center falling by 65% being the outlier it seems to be following the trend if you removed the three major cities I’ve referred to. I personally doubt we’re looking at a week 3 greater than 5-6 crores.
Comment by Paddy on 8 March 2008:
Jodhaa Akbar is emerging a HIT on its way to be SUPERHIT perhaps. Thats great news for the film which is not only of a Risky genre, but also had a patchy release in the First weekend in Multiplexes to Not releasing in Rajastan to Bans for a week in MP, UP and other parts.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
And if these numbers are right I think we’re looking at shocking drops in week 3..
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Here’s my ultimate sense of it — I think the film has only worked in Bombay (city), delhi (city), Ahmedabad and maybe decent in a few other major metros because of the first two weeks. But again we’ll know with Nahata’s numbers whether these are right or not. But the trending is very definite from Baroda to Bangalore..
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
“And if these numbers are right I think we’re looking at shocking drops in week 3..”
these numbers are not right, that much i can say.anyway ur doubts will be clear once i put up this week FI.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
SimplySom: Do you have this week’s FI?
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Obviously I stand to correction if the numbers there are very different from these. But if you already have the latest FI perhaps you could put up some of these centers here..
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Satyam I’m very confident these are under-reported. I don’t think films plummet by 94% in Bangalore, or 87% in Chennai or by 92% in Pune when other big cities are showing falls of only 20-45%. Also last week these cities like Bangalore/Chennai/Kolkatta/Pune were super strong. It is a highly unlikely scenario where a film is superstrong in second week and then drops so dramatically. The only Nahata number I am interested in is Mumbai.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
60% falls are possible, but 70%-90%+ are highly unlikely.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
Satyam: i dont have it now, will have it by tueday or wednesday..
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Last week’s falls
Baroda 25%
Pune 47%
Kaushambi 20%
Noida 39%
Lucknow 39%
Kolkatta 25%
Bangalore 39%
Chennai 25%
All the centres were falling less than industry average. To go from that to 70%+ falls is very unlikely in week three, its possible in week two though. Even when Partner/OSO/Welcome fell in week three they only fell by a maximum of 60%.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Unless of course the film has been in free fall after the second weekend.. as some reports including Nahata’s claimed.. the second week numbers would then be decent or good on the basis of the weekend (consider the Saawariya or JBJ openings).
What I am puzzled about is that Baroda, Pune, Goa, Lucknow, Bangalore, Madras, Kaushambi, Calcutta all seem to have drops in excess of 75%. And these centers are all over the place.
As I said I could certainly be wrong but given that Taran is otherwise championing this film it’s an odd list, specially since not one other than Bombay is indicated as incomplete. Usually he mentions number of shows or something.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
For OSO Taran had a 40% drop in week 1 and a 57% drop in week 2. D2 fell by 44% in week 2 and 56% in week 3. So if the 65% week 3 drop for JA is not true and if most of these centers are incomplete we’d be looking at OSO or D2 kind of trending for JA. Doesn’t seem very likely I must say..
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
In any case FI should clear this up.
Comment by Eire on 8 March 2008:
I think JA will end up as a semi-hit or hit film in the final analysis depending on the trade analyst.
Thanks jay.
Comment by Eire on 8 March 2008:
satyam, what are you saying? Are the numbers actually lower?
Yes, the FI should clear it up I suppose
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Satyam the drops Taran gives are something that no one should follow, unless its done like for like. The biggest flaw is in week one he reported over 100 centres, same in week two but in week three it is like 30-40centres. So comparing week two to three will always yield an exaggerated drop.
I think you will notice the same with Guru aswell. Compare week one Guru and week two and the drop Taran gives is over 60%! But it is incorrect because in week one there were so many centres reported, week two much less.
Also week two Guru, the Bangalore number is drastically lower compared to week two if I recall correctly. Same with other cities.
IMO what maybe happening is in week one/week two Taran maybe getting hold of good set of collections, and afterwards it gets worse. I dunno what it is, but taking it at face value would draw incorrect conclusions IMO.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
The other pattern is Ahmedebad is super strong, but Baroda not. Mumbai is superstrong and Pune not. Usually they behave uniformly. I’ve noticed a fair bit that Baroda, Pune, Kaushambhi, Kolkatta, Bangalore, Chennai cause problems.
For TZP the Bangalore week 1 figure was over 1Cr, then each subsequent week it was like 10lakhs or something. Just have to ignore Bangalore afterwards because it will yield incorrect result.
FI should clear some of it up.
Comment by flora on 8 March 2008:
yes indiafm numbers this week are under-reported as can be seen that the average per screen is still high.
Comment by flora on 8 March 2008:
very good analysis by the way jayshah.
Comment by flora on 8 March 2008:
JA has not fallen by more than 40%.Will be interesting what nahata will say as he is hell bent to make JA a flop
Comment by flora on 8 March 2008:
and yes jayshah even THE GURU movie fell by 60-65% in 2nd week if one goes by underreported indiafm numbers.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
These are no way complete figures from Taran … his collections are patchily reported this time … btw, good to see Satyam back to his normal conspiracy theory against JA as usual … LOL
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
The kind of sustained fanaticism that the likes of Satyam and IBOS are maintaining is indeed fascinating … Keep it up Satyam .. its the likes of you and some politically inspired rajput protestants or say the communal IBOS is what is actually making the JA success much more sweeter.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
Satyam: at times i fail to understand ur weird sense of reasoning.to be honest you appear as someone who is having a double standard and who seems to have only one agenda of not accepting JA’s success.how can you believe these numbers are right and JA has indeed witnessed such big falls in centres like Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata which have been its strongest centers?
i did not see you taking the same stand when Guru fell by 66% in its 2nd week at Indiafm!!why did you say the numbers were right at that time too??this is exactly what you said on Guru’s 2nd week:
1-”Of the 23 centers Taran puts up this time which of course omits many major centers (even from last time!) 16 are incomplete! The 5.4 crore figure even for these centers is of course incomplete.”
2-This week of course Taran has incomplete totals on 16 out 23 centers. Where he has 6 day numbers we can at least calculate for the 7th day but where he just has a certain number of show it’s hard to calculate this. For example Pune was historic in week 1 but the week 2 number is totally and miserably incomplete. Again many of the strongest Bombay territory and Southern centers are simply not here. And of course even BOI now admits it’s a superhit in these territories! The numbers are better than Don’s in week 2, you inflated the Don total saying it was good in Southern centers! Now Guru is better in both the South and Bombay territory (both of which were strongest for Don) and you have this embarassingly low number!
why such hypocrisy!!!!???accept the fact that JA has sustained really well now.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
LOL … hypocrisy and double standards are just the core and integral part of the so-called ‘Satyam Reasoning’!
He can only fool his ‘chelas’ here with all these … i have had small tiffs with even the most neutral guys like Som n Jay here at times …but i really cant stand the disgusting propaganda called ‘Satyam’@NG!
Satyam please go and join Indian politics … you are the ideal descendant to Lalu’s throne … and trust me this is the biggest compliment u can recieve from me
Comment by Eire on 8 March 2008:
JA has held up well. I think the film will top out between 50-55 crore in the end with different trade analysts terming it a semi-hit or hit film.
I asked this in the SB.
How does one become a trade analyst? Why don’t trade analysts follow the same criteria or rules when judging a film’s box office? Wouldn’t this make it much easier and not cause confusion?
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
correction: “why did you not say the numbers were right at that time too?”
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
^^^ There goes another Abhi fan rambling … when the movie was average, they labeled it Flop, when it collected enuf to be called above-average they called it below expectations, now that it is already a Hit, they are only willing to accept a semi-hit/Hit status only when thatrical run ends … this just illustrates the fact that this movie is on its way to become a Superhit in India .. no wonder they are willing to accept a ‘Hit’ tag in the end.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
This is one main reason i advised Jay to hold back any ‘pre-matured verdict’ on the movie and wait and see how things unfold … whats the point in changing the trade verdict for the same movie every week?
But then its his column and his own prerogative. This column is a very fair one.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
correction - “this analysis in this column is fair one based on less number of reported centers that too with incomplete figures.”
Comment by Julie on 8 March 2008:
good analysis Jay and glad to see you and Som give a fair analysis based on incomplete numbers. I would however call it a hit. and if it sustains well even go on to become super hit from here. It has a clear run for another 2 weeks.
Yes I agree with rks and Som that the final numbers will be more clear once the FI numbers are out. However for the moment kudos to JA.
Comment by Qalandar on 8 March 2008:
Jay’s analysis was fair and unbiased in every one of the weeks so far. One might agree or disagree, but it doesn’t become unfair when one disagrees or fair when one agrees. As always, good work Jay: since I was rooting for a Jodha-Akbar success, I am happy to see it on its way to becoming one…
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Ach I usually give some kind of verdict in week two, not in week one. Even then I will move up. For example, Sunday was a flop along but last 2 weeks its done reasonably decently so its got a below average. With JA I have never been ‘completely’ certain how it will go so I have waited each week to make that decision. With CDI or TZP it was more clearcut.
‘Obviously I stand to correction if the numbers there are very different from these.’
Satyam did say this btw.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Julie - I’ll call it hit when its close to 52Cr. And almost certainly it will get there.
Comment by Eire on 8 March 2008:
By the way thanks jay for the column. It is unbiased and easy to follow which is a plus.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
This is one good example (the GURU 65% drop was another) that any analysis based on Taran’s ‘Kripa’ for reporting maximum centers or say even complete figures is not a substancial one.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Thanks Eire & Q.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
Indian BO is not transparent enough for anyone to sit in UK and come up with the best possible BO analysis methodology and figures … specially when he is depending on whims and incomplete partial reporting of figures in IndiaFM or even FI (partial centers or partial figures). Period.
You need contacts at distributor level which time and again BOI has proved to have.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
Just because Abhi films doesnt do well enuf in India as some Bachchan fans wants it to … the most easy way out is to question the credibility of BOI … sadly the pattern here is only Bachchan fans are the one showing complete disdain to BOI numbers … do I need to say more?
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
‘Indian BO is not transparent enough’
Full stop. This is where you should have ended your comment
Comment by Qalandar on 8 March 2008:
Ach bro, you never questioned FI until Jodha Akbar came along — he has always had only reported centers, as with Taran Adarsh or whoever. In fact this if I recall was one of the criticisms that was always made of the whole system by satyam, jay, and others way back when, that only reported centers were available, and what was the source for Box Office India and IBOS having more centers than even the top two trade guys (even Tango had said that FI had more centers than anybody)…to be quite frank I still don’t get it.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
Ach: no point in going after Jay and his analysis.He has made a very fair analysis of 3rd week on whatever numbers(complete ones) he got from Taran and pretty much made it clear that the fall cant be that high for JA.
as far as Indian BO is concerend,well.. i do feel there is room for improvements and transparency to make us believe that the numbers are indeed credible and not manipulated.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Simply Som: if you’d bothered to do a little more work you’d have found the answer. Here’s Taran on Guru week 2:
Guru - Week 2
# Mumbai - 2,40,06,886
# Ahmedabad - 60,42,908
# Baroda - 10,31,288 (54 sh.)
# Jamnagar - 3,72,970
# Pune - 9,16,606 (54 sh.)
# Goa - 5,00,235 (54 sh.)
# Delhi - 1,07,70,176 (6 dy.)
# Noida - 22,17,574 (6 dy.)
# Kaushambi - 2,86,821 (48 sh.)
# Gurgaon - 11,68,659 (6 dy.)
# Ghaziabad - 9,28,016 (6 dy.)
# Agra - 2,50,000
# Dehradun - 2,94,632
# Moradabad - 1,45,000 (1st)
# Kolkata - 24,40,021 (42 sh.)
# Darjeeling - 47,958 (18 sh.)
# Nagpur - 6,75,205 (48 sh.)
# Indore - 2,63,995 (36 sh.)
# Sehore - 66,000
# Jaipur - 2,10,662 (6 dy.)
# Kota - 2,51,416 (6 dy.)
# Bangalore - 11,97,094 (54 sh.)
Notice how the vast majority here are incomplete totals?! Does he mention even one for JA?!
Still I said I was willing to accept these numbers were incomplete if FI could confirm this. By the way I am actually giving JA the benefit of the doubt. I could just stick with Taran’s numbers! When Guru had incomplete numbers for Indore or some other centers that were higher at businessofcinema I did not upgrade them based on that info!
But I don’t see what’s the ire about? If FI confirms your idea I’m wrong, if not you are!
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
“But I don’t see what’s the ire about? If FI confirms your idea I’m wrong, if not you are!”
Agreed!! lets wait for the FI numbers to come out.
Comment by Eire on 8 March 2008:
I don’t get the attacks on jay’s column or on anything else. It seems quite odd.
“”as far as Indian BO is concerend,well.. i do feel there is room for improvements and transparency to make us believe that the numbers are indeed credible and not manipulated.”"
Yes, this is my point of there needing to be rules and standards that have to be followed by all of the trade analysts. This would definitely make the final numbers more credible and solid with no room for confusion.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
Congratulations Q for questioning my ‘faith’ on FI … i never had any access to FI … dont know how such a small scale publication is considered the best … coz it indeed has limited publication in India … and as i never had any access to FI data .. i never had any strong faith in it … As for BOI, they have direct distributor level contacts.
My point is when guyz like Taran or Komal isnt able to make the system transparent … any analysis based on whimsical data doesnt take any step further. It never did.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
“if you’d bothered to do a little more work you’d have found the answer.”
I have pretty sound knowledge about boxoffice numbers and i can say Taran has incomplete numbers for many centers.ofcourse i am not a fool who will accept 94% and 87% fall for JA in centers like Bangalore and Chennai respectively or even 77% in Kolkata unless people there had made a new year resolution not to watch JA in the theaters in its 3rd week.anyway let the FI numbers come out, if i am wrong i will gracefully accept.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Achilles: Your reliance on BOI for JA is actually the worst kind of opportunism and you’re hardly in a position to accuse anyone else of anything. And based on what? The nonsense that Tango feeds you that they get their numbers directly from distributors? Give me a break! Tango could never say anything but Nahata forever and conveniently ignores him every week on JA! It’s one thing to take Nahata against Taran or vice versa. But to suggest that both don’t know the box office or have tainted info and BOI is the only source that’s right is really the height of absurdity. More than this you’re hardly the best messenger for this message. You are a fanatic when it comes to Hrithik. And you’re now giving us supposedly ‘unbiased’ views on JA’s box office. Please!
All of the rest I’d still ignore. What puzzles me is why you keep attacking Jay when the man is giving JA some of the most positive reporting around. We’ve seen TOI and HT and so on give it very mixed reports. IBN called it a hit but had a 32 crore 2 week figure! Your argument with Jay is that his number is not exactly as high as BOI’s. So your position basically is: every number that doesn’t agree with BOI’s is wrong. Every position on the film that doesn’t agree with BOI is wrong! And you are only incidentally a Hrithik fanatic!
We can have disagreements here but if you’re going to lower the civility standard every time you will get a taste of your own medicine. And you’d do well to remember the dozes you’ve had in the past from me. I’ve been polite. You’ve kept up the ridicule. It’s not going to stop me from voicing my views. But unlike yourself I still rely on the verifiable. BOI do not have any center totals. Just entire territory ones which are basically producer totals (and I’m led to believe that even UTV haven’t issued a total for week 3, at least not yet!). The idea that distributors give totals to BOI is not just ludicrous, it’s pain unadulterated garbage for all the reasons I’ve discussed in the past. This is propaganda that Tango has been spreading forever but we’ve seen ever since we started looking at FI how much of what he used to say about Nahata was really true! I am still looking at the verifiable. if Nahata’s numbers are the same as Taran’s, more or less, I am WRONG, if not you are WRONG! get it? There’s no rocket science here! When Nahata had a Delhi number that was 40 lakhs lower for week 1 (JA) than Taran’s I did not ask anyone to use that. Taran’s number was used. I remember how in the past you guys used to do this based on FI numbers for certain films!
OSO, CDI were major hits, the numbers were clear. I wasn’t arguing about this! But JA is a mixed bag. If Nahata’s numbers for all these centers are higher Taran’s will have been incomplete. But let’s see those first!
But quit this nonsense of pretending that somehow everyone’s citing a minority view. The BOI view is currently the minority one!
I am of course amused by some of the SRK fans who crop out of the woodwork every Sat just to ‘accept’ the highest possible totals for JA. Since when did these folks become SRK fans?! wonder if there’s some anti-Abhi current here?!
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
Som - its not a question of being a fool here … its a question of being ‘intentionally’ foolish to substantiate a propaganda which you cant validate otherwise .. and lets not forget this guy used to write or even writes for IBOS
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Simply Som: You’re changing the point. You accused me of hypocrisy based on the Guru point. I have just demonstrated how practically every number there is incomplete! That’s what I was arguing about! Your entire point was about how I accepted Guru and not JA. I’m telling you how! There is no center that’s been marked as incomplete for JA! By the way Don fell by 62% in week 2, even this film had 2-3 incomplete centers. JA has none! Still I could be absolutely wrong. But I am not willing to accept on face value that ALL of those centers are incomplete from Baroda to Bangalore. Since taran is so heavily supporting this film why is he giving out such poor figures for it? And without even indicating that it’s incomplete?! But again I am willing to accept the numbers if FI confirms them. Not sure how much more fair I can be! I don’t see what the objection is?
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Som: My objection is to the ‘hypocrisy’ charge. Surely if I were doing this I’d just stand by Taran’s numbers and not ask for FI?
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
If these numbers are correct the film has more or less tanked barring a few major cities. If these numbers are indeed incomplete Jay’s interpretation is completely right and I stand by it.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
Satyam - U r far more a fanatic on Abhi to accuse someone else for biasness!
As for Jay’s column … i have never accepted his methodology .. be it for any film …i dont endorse double standards like you constantly do.
Just because ur IBOS has no industry level sources and contacts, there is no need to come up with ur bogus nonsense against BOI.
As for Tango or his regard for Nahata, thats his opinion .. not mine … m niether tango nor an apologist of his opinions.
And dont consider yourself as ‘everyone’ for God’s sake … thats ridiculous to be precise.
And does it boil down to anti-abhi current if someone doesnt give in to ur/IBOS disgusting propaganda against a movie like JA which most here has liked?
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
No one here is accepting Taran’s numbers .. its just the constant negativity and bad faith with which this ’saint’ Laluisque Satyam is commenting on this particular movie … wonder why so much of anxiety and insecurity?
i guess the answer is obvious
And once again the “THIS CRASH/THAT CRASH” conspiracy theory has emerged
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
“Humne bol diya ki JA Flop hai! to kaheko itna chitchit?”
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Achilles: I have nothing more to add to what I said. I just think things should be kept civil. But if you’re not an apologist for tango you should stop parroting his opinions. He’s the only one here who says BOI get their info from the distributors! But in any case keep things civil and I’ll ignore you (since I can’t possibly take you seriously). However if you keep dragging me in when I’m not making the slightest reference to you I will come down very strong on you. For the longest time I’ve been urging you and some others here to keep things civil. But there’s a limit to my patience. Don’t like Jay’s column? Don’t read it! But you get in here every week and just ruin the tone of the discussion! The IBOS charge is another stale one that you keep parroting following Tango. Also like him you’ve started attacking Jay. So don’t pretend you came to this by yourself.
As for calling me an Abhi fanatic so what’s the logic here? That it’s ok for you to be a Hrithik fanatic if I’m an Abhi fanatic? Get some independence Ach! Much as you should start using some different vocabulary too and not just pick up my ‘propaganda’ word!
My apologies. I thought I wouldn’t get into all of this. But stop getting in my face and you’ll be ok. Otherwise I’ll hound you! And you can ask Tango what it feels like when the facts are constantly thrown at you!
If the film’s a hit I’ll accept it, but I’ll never need the likes of you telling me anything on Bollywood, Hrithik or otherwise.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Achilles: You are the only one with insecurity here. And I don’t blame you! When one predicts 100 or 75 crore initials or record breaking opening weeks one has a problem!
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
I meant to say 100 or 75 crore grosses..
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
I only voice my opinion based on my knowledge .. n its just like a fanatic mad abhi fan who links up everything in his ridiculous conspiracy theories.
What is truth is always better to ignored .. what else can be expected for an opportunist escapist like urself?
If u think anyone (except Bachchan fanatics takes IBOS) seriously, then keep day-dreaming. And ur continuous unabashed support for IBOS keeps revealing the truth my friend.
And please stop being under the illusion that ur imagination are actual facts or even close to reality!
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
LOL .. JA wasnt supposed to do even a 40 crores … oops it became 45 crores after the “THIS CARSH/THAT CRASH” theory was falsified
Comment by kmkm13 on 8 March 2008:
I meant to say 100 or 75 crore grosses..
Weren”t you claiming 75 crores for JBJ what HAPPENED????
Now you are castigating Achilles…
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
And yes its obvious who is most affected at NG by JA’s success in all realms.
Comment by sandy on 8 March 2008:
” at times i fail to understand ur weird sense of reasoning.to be honest you appear as someone who is having a double standard and who seems to have only one agenda of not accepting JA’s success.how can you believe these numbers are right and JA has indeed witnessed such big falls in centres like Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata which have been its strongest centers?”
Unfortunately, I feel the same here.
Comment by Achilles on 8 March 2008:
KM - Its actually sad that Satyam desperately wants a JBJ analogy for JA … but as they wisely say …
“Dhundte Rahe Jao Ge!”
Comment by Julie on 8 March 2008:
“meant to say 100 or 75 crore grosses..”
Given the bans and problems with multiplex release, it’s genre, length, late release, low publicity this figure was always going to be a problem even with the initial prediction so that kind of leverage must be allowed. But it has trended well thereafter. meant to say 100 or 75 crore grosses..Where JA will finally end is anyone’s guess (Hit, Super Hit) but bottomline is it has done really well and has been a very lucrative venture for UTV.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
“Given the bans and problems with multiplex release” and also the desperate desires and all the hilarious ‘Akbar Ghazi’ write ups by IBOS and their agents.
I am still amused to know why there was so much desperation for Jodhaa Akbar to flop as it does not even star enemy no. 1, 2 or 3
Comment by sandy on 8 March 2008:
But I still maintain that JA would have found the going tough, had it not been for the fact that it got such a clean run. It’s not resounding hit, but still a pretty neat one.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
“I meant to say 100 or 75 crore grosses..
Weren”t you claiming 75 crores for JBJ what HAPPENED????
Now you are castigating Achilles…”
I was also asked a similar frustration reducing question ” Were you not talking of a 30 cr plus first week”
Comment by sandy on 8 March 2008:
“My apologies. I thought I wouldn’t get into all of this. But stop getting in my face and you’ll be ok. Otherwise I’ll hound you! And you can ask Tango what it feels like when the facts are constantly thrown at you!
If the film’s a hit I’ll accept it, but I’ll never need the likes of you telling me anything on Bollywood, Hrithik or otherwise.”
What kind of frustrated anger is this Satyam? Never seen you like this!
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
>>I am of course amused by some of the SRK fans who crop out of the woodwork every Sat just to ‘accept’ the highest possible totals for JA. Since when did these folks become SRK fans?! wonder if there’s some anti-Abhi current here
hmmmmph!!! how did you know! we had kept it a secret for so long!! sandy - tu bhi! cant you come here on sundays to make it less obvious
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
“I am of course amused by some of the SRK fans who crop out of the woodwork every Sat just to ‘accept’ the highest possible totals for JA”
Another milestone hypocricy laden statement, because Hrithik was supposedly at a higher rating than SRK at the BO
Now that statement abt Abhishek being the biggest threat to SRK & Hrithik is out of circulation.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Just a few months back SRK fans were just Khan fans, but I can see some progress as SRK fans are also Hrithik supporters.
Comment by Simply Som on 8 March 2008:
“but I can see some progress as SRK fans are also Hrithik supporters.”
It is basically standing for what is right and giving the credit where it is due.
Comment by Julie on 8 March 2008:
“but I can see some progress as SRK fans are also Hrithik supporters.”
How are the twain connected? You can be an either or fan or not be a fan of a star per se but be a fan of a particular performance for instance Hritik was outstanding in JA that most people will agree. He was crap in MPKD and actually Abhishek scored over him in this particular instance.
However he is a very industrious actor who has worked very hard on his weaknesses and played to his strengths over a period of time. I don’t know whether you watched the CNN interview with Ashutosh Gowarikar sometime back where he was asked to comment on the acting skills of SRK, Aamir and Hritik and his reply was that Aamir is very methodical and book driven, SRK invents his role as he goes along and Hritik is a combination of the best part of these two. He is an amazing ear for learning. So yes one will give the credit where it is due. If he repeats (which is highly unlikely)MPKD or Mujhse Dosti Karoge he will face a flak by the same set of admirers who have apprecaited his performance in D2 and JA.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Exactly Som and that is why Cheeni Kum is asemi-hit and Guru a superhit for me, unlike what sources have it as.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Does anyone know if JA was shown in CI this past week? BOI is suggesting it was and made around 0.27Cr. I have knocked off 0.24Cr thinking it had not released there.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Juli - “but I can see some progress as SRK fans are also Hrithik supporters.”
Well, dont read much into it as that is a reciprocatory statement to my Valentine’s statement.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Oh missed that ” And you can ask Tango what it feels like when the facts are constantly thrown at you!”
Seriously you think you bother me
Tremble tremble, I will stop everything. I am scared. Please dont do that to me
On serious note
a) Stop getting jealous of every actors succeses.
b) It is not that if X flops a Yash Raj or UTV venture , the banner will come tro your fav.
Grow up.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Jodhaa Akbar in CI last week ( 3rd week run in India)
Indore - Entered 2nd week at PVR, Velocity, Inox, Adlabs, Regal, Astha, Kastur and Madhumilan.
Bhopal- entered IInd week at Sangam and Sargam
Ratlam- opened after ban was lifted by court
Gwalior- Opened at Yadav and Gold.
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Ok thanks Tango - that was some much needed information. I’ve amended week three so that the adjustment is cancelled. Hence week three is now 8.5-8.8Cr.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
Welcome Jay. If the collections are also there in FI I’ll put it up, beter to wait for it before ammending.
Comment by Ravi on 8 March 2008:
Good job Jay as always.
Comment by Ravi on 8 March 2008:
Nicely said as always Julie.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Sandy: No frustration at all! I think I’m the one member here who’s always been around irrespective of what star has hits or flops. You are often not aware of the history because you are not around very much. The warning was issued to Achilles because he reduces the civility of these discussions when I am not even including him in any of these issues. I have politely asked him to maintain the decorum at many points. Here I have been a bit stern and suggested that if he doesn’t he might get like for like. Tango knows this already!
On the rest I think it’s once again unfair on your part to agree with Som’s comment, even a bit cynically so, when right below I have responded! The Guru centers were all labeled as incomplete, the JA ones aren’t. Why could I not say that because like JA you desperately want it to be a hit? Doesn’t this cut both ways? So I think it’s unfair to call me “frustrated” when I have never argued but with evidence.
As I said if the FI numbers match Taran’s I’ll accept them. But if not I will have been right. We can have this discussion either way but to assign other motives to me indicates either poor judgment on your part or superficial one at the very least. For the longest time I have looked into each and every facet of the box office on this site. No one here has examined the box office in greater detail in every sense and you ought to know this. Now I can understand you don’t have the time to frequent the site more than once a week. But when you are I think you are too intelligent to so carelessly lend your voice to some others here who are only on hyperpartisan agendas and not at all interested in what’s really happening. In effect that’s what you’re doing.
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Tango: the way you’ve ignored Nahata on JA is nothing short of shameful. But then I am hardly surprised!
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
you take your movies too seriously satyam
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
‘The Guru centers were all labeled as incomplete, the JA ones aren’t’
This is a fair point. Because even with Mumbai this week one can see he has said 4 unreported centres. But I think in general the centres singled out here are generally not fully reported. Pune, Bangalore, Kolkatta and Chennai I have noticed come in low a few times.
IMO what is happening is when Taran does get a hold of good collections like Welcome week 1 or JA week 1 or Guru week 1 it doesn’t carry through into subsequent weeks. He doesn’t indicate which centres which is the annoying thing.
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
In all this brouhaha, TZP has crossed 60cr (upper range) and probably do the same at BOI next week.
Beld:There are only 6 slip fielders..where are the other three?
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
I agree with Satyam views that ‘ImageSmiths’ has not provided the numbers this time.
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
dont know rks - it seems to be cut off - let me check on gravitaar.
btw - whats with this mother india stuff. you are too young for it!
btw on tzp - it is quite remarkable with the nos it has done. probably fair to say that along with cdi its the most loved movie of recent times
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
and jay i am still disappointed with you. i think the BO report would be complete with the overseas numbers. Cmon when a movie like JA does such roaring business overseas - you got to include that in when you make your categorization. Its in no way a Semi hit if you take the overseas business
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
Here is Nine slips snap
But I like this more
Nine slips
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
Beld - send me overseas every Friday and I’ll do it
But it is the indian box office. Overseas matters I know but really a flop in India and hit abroad won’t mean much to most people!
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
Beld: “Mother India” is one of the significant film coming out of bollywood.
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
rks i put the full photo there but only 6 slips came out. rest somehow slipped out
jay - you are already overseas man. and ya i think it may matter a little to the producers…
Comment by jayshah on 8 March 2008:
beld - am pretty sure producers are well aware of overseas earnings. Its the indian earnings they need help on!
I see you noticed my comment and didn’t fall for it. Was hoping you’d say ‘yes’ and then you’d had to pay for my tickets every week!
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
btw - has anyone seen 10000BC - am planning to go tonight to that or the bank job
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Beld: I am certainly guilty of that!
I was planning to see 10,000 BC today but I’ve been rather under the weather for some days (which explains my ‘choleric’ remarks here!) and couldn’t do so today. But I hope to do it tomorrow.
The reviews suggest it’s an Apocalypto kind of tale though not as good. But I’m a sucker for woolly mammoths and Siberian tigers and certainly can’t miss this!
Comment by beld o beld on 8 March 2008:
on that topic rks - what are your most significant movies out of bollywood. Here is my list in order
10. Guide
9. Swades
8. Rang De Basanti
7. Zanjeer
6. Dilwale Dulhaniya Le Jayenge
5. Sholay
4. Chak De India
3. Taare Zameen Par
2. Mother India
1. Haqueeqat (that one song does it for me)
>Zinda Rehene Ke Mausam, Bahut Hai Magar,
Jaan Dene Ki Rut Roz Aati Nahin<
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Jay: Your point is certainly a fair one and you are more likely right here than I am..
Comment by satyam on 8 March 2008:
Incidentally over the second week JA did better than Don. The latter dropped 63% according to Taran’s numbers. A few incomplete ones there but the drop rate would still be greater than JA’s.
Comment by rks on 8 March 2008:
Beld start a new thread. Most of the choices would be post 1970.
Comment by Tango on 8 March 2008:
“Tango: the way you’ve ignored Nahata on JA is nothing short of shameful. But then I am hardly surprised!”\
Really ?
I think to most ( apart from you and Ganesh) it did not seems so, neither the numbers nor the write ups. In fact, afew find it a bit too un JA patronising.
So should I go by Nahta on Guru and other films like Buffmaster and Sarkaar rating etc.
Better for you to run IBOS ur way rather than telling me what to do
Comment by satyam on 9 March 2008:
No you should go by Nahata on KHNH and Don and CC and KANK! LOL!
Comment by Tango on 9 March 2008:
Ok I’ll go by it so you accept that Guru is just an overflow and Sarkar too has the same rating
One KANK wont make any diff to SRK and Don he rectified in the annual issue , scan dekha tha na
Par tumhare paas to ek Guru hi hai le de kar
Comment by Tango on 9 March 2008:
Jay plz delete the triplicate comments, leaving the first one intact.
Comment by beld o beld on 9 March 2008:
lol Tango - i thought you were just reiterating your point
Comment by Tango on 9 March 2008:
“lol Tango - i thought you were just reiterating your point”
No Beld, I had to make do with my old ( emergency IPO) as my BSNL Braodband that is trying to achieve the impossible Metro speed, collapsed
That is why the triple comments.
Comment by Tango on 9 March 2008:
**ISP**
Comment by beld o beld on 9 March 2008:
i like the emergency IPO concept;-) the way the stock market is going - we need a few of those!
Comment by akshay shah on 9 March 2008:
Fantastic as always Jay:)!
Comment by satyam on 10 March 2008:
Tango: actually it’s Don and KANK and CC and Devdas and KHNH at the very least! And he didn’t rectify anything for don. What you did in that instance was NOT produce his annual ranking. You produced a different table for him. I pointed this out at the time. But hey it’s half a dozen SRK films here. And probably more as we go down the list. The thing is that you just kept representing Nahata whichever way you wished. Now that other members here are getting FI and putting it up your options have become a bit more limited! This is why you’ve taken a wow of silence with Nahata where JA is concerned! What happened? He’s not God anymore?! With previous releases the scans weren’t being put up so you could provide fake info citing ‘Nahata’. Now you can’t!
Comment by satyam on 10 March 2008:
Here’s the info:
http://www.naachgaana.com/2008/01/01/don-and-kank-overflow-films-only-komal-nahata/
if you can provide Nahata’s annual scan (with all films listed) with letter grades given to each film and not one of his other pronouncements I’ll be happy to change my mind! Produce it!
Comment by satyam on 10 March 2008:
And finally to reiterate what is pretty obvious but what you always pretend not to understand, I am not ‘devoted’ to Nahata or Taran or anyone else. You are! You’ve always called Nahata the be all and end all in these matters. So you are obliged to stick with his ratings! Of course you make changes where you wish and you also ignore him when you wish (JA)!
Comment by satyam on 10 March 2008:
Now if you have something substantive to say I will respond. If you’re just going to launch into obscenity in Hindi or gutter ridicule I’m afraid I will have to ignore it!