
The AKS Media Scam, Apne Off to a Poor Start then Stabilizes, Awarapan does the Same on a Lesser Level Bombay to Goa pulled in 61 lakhs in Bombay, 15 lakhs in Ahmedabad, 7 lakhs in Delhi. Nostalgia for the title might account for marginally better performance in smaller centers. Agra pulled in 1.23 lakhs, Bhavnagar 1.68 lakhs, Dehradun and Varanasi 1.15 lakhs each, the Delhi environ of Gurgaon pulled in 1.4 lakhs, Aurangabad 2.65 lakhs.
The film is more or less a washout with a gross not exceeding 1.5 crores in week 1.
On Aks I cannot really add anything to the discussion here except to suggest that the air has not been cleared with the week 2 numbers. Yet a bit remains to be stated.
To backtrack a bit Taran Adarsh revealed two sets of numbers for week 1. The second set consisted of much higher numbers in most cases and most surprisingly so for major centers. There is strong circumstantial evidence to suggest that week 2 numbers mix ‘gross figures’ with ‘nett figures’. The problem with the week 2 numbers is that these also do not pass the transparency test. Because if the original week 1 set of numbers (since then confirmed by Komal Nahata) is accepted as the right one the second week set would be very implausible as the rate of drop would be less than negligible. However if the second set is taken as the right one the drop is closer to 45%, the film reveals a high degree of stability. But this makes for a very pat scenario given that there is no confirmation for the second set for week 1 numbers. There is no available source that at the present point confirms the week 1 set. therefore using it as a base for week 2 numbers is more than a little hazardous.
At this point the first set of numbers is more or less the same as Nahata’s figures and these will therefore be the operative ones used here. With the caveat that these are subject to revision if indeed the second set is confirmed by Film Information.
Week 1 is therefore in the 6-7 crore range. For argument’s sake if the ‘updated’ numbers were to be accepted the range would shift to the vicinity of 9.5-10.5 crores. Now, using the updated week 1 numbers and then also accepting the week 2 numbers at face value it’s clear that the week 2 drop is not more than 40-45% in most centers. Therefore the week 2 range would be 5-6 crores and the two week total would consequently be in the 14.5-16.5 crore range.
However if the original week 1 set is the right one (and this again finds confirmation in the FI numbers) and then if the same 40-45% drop is assumed the week 2 range is really 3.5-4.5 crores and the total is accordingly 9.5-11.5 crores.
Again once the week 2 Nahata numbers become available some of the air will be cleared up on this. At the moment one can only surmise and therefore I have laid out the possible options here. I have not looked at the individual numbers as there is a doubt about these and for reasons of consistency I cannot do this report using Nahata’s numbers.
But there is a larger point to be made here. The media in general following the lead of some of the trade experts (most notably Taran Adarsh) lied about the performance of the film. Whether the film opened to 7 crores or 10 crores, either way this is not an extraordinary opening by any means. It seems clear that the film opened superbly in many single screens, and it also definitely did very well given all the factors associated with the film in terms of scale etc. But even accounting for all these the media reception went beyond simple exaggeration and into the realm of the lie, specially when comparisons like Krrish and D2 were used (the host of Saregama went one step further and suggested the film had done better than both those blockbusters!). Why this happened goes beyond the scope of this piece but in any case it did not represent the truth in any sense. Aap ka Suroor has done well the way a small film sometimes hits the mark. Where a Honeymoon Travels did very well in multiplexes this film has performed better in single screens. Therefore the numbers are in a sense a bit deflated. In multiplex terms the film has done something like a 15 crore initial (even accepting the lower numbers) if one were to gauge it by number of tickets sold but this still does not justify the media hype. What can however be stated one way or the other is that the film is a definite success.
Apne got off to a rather poor start in week one with 1.49 crores in Bombay (a number lower than Honeymoon Travels), 1.12 crores in Delhi (a number which equals PHP’s from last year and this itself was poor), 56 lakhs in Ahmedabad, 4 lakhs in Bangalore, 2 lakhs in Indore, 1.7 lakhs in Allahabad, 3.7 lakhs in Pune, 2.2 lakhs in Goa, 16 lakhs in Calcutta. Some of the smaller centers were much better than this and even good in a few instances. Examples are Baroda with 5.7 lakhs, Bhavnagar with 3.5 lakhs, Jaipur with 11 lakhs, Agra with 6 lakhs, the Delhi environ also did better, Faridabad with 10.3 lakhs, Gurgaon with 17.5 lakhs, Noida with 13.6 lakhs. But overall this was a very low start for the film with first week takings in 7.5-8.5 crore range with the lower end far more likely.
In week 2 though the film held up very well pulling in 83 lakhs in Bombay, 33 lakhs in Ahmedabad, 83 lakhs in Delhi, 3.5 lakhs in Agra, 2.23 lakhs in Bhavnagar, 9.42 lakhs in Faridabad, 13.5 lakhs in Gurgaon, Noida with 9.6 lakhs.
The week 2 number is in the 4.5-6 crore range. Again the lower end range looks more plausible. therefore the two week total is in the 12-14.5 crore range with 12-12.5 crores looking to be the optimal number.
The film has held up very well but given the very low start this will have to be a lot more stable to even get to 20 crores. The film has clearly been liked but the audience segment interested in it to begin with is a very low one. I made the same point earlier with NL. That film opened to an initial 40-50% higher than Apne, that film also remained very stable and yet the audience base was never big enough. For Apne it’s drastically lower. This is the kind of performance one would not need to qualify if the film in question were a Honeymoon Travels or a Bheja Fry. Nor has the film opened on limited prints like the offbeat Cheeni Kum (though even here I stated for the longest time that the box office performance needed to be qualified for other reasons). The film with more stability in coming weeks could reach semi-hit status. But the margin for ‘error’ (drop) is rather narrow here and realistically a more than average/above average status for the film seems unlikely.
Awarapan was another film that got off to a low start with 83 lakhs in Bombay, 17 lakhs in Ahmedabad, 54 lakhs in Delhi, 10 lakhs in Calcutta, 4 lakhs in Bangalore. Many of the smaller centers were much better, specially in the Bombay territory. Examples are Baroda with close to 5 lakhs, Surat with 9 lakhs, Pune with 20 lakhs, Goa with 4 lakhs, Aurangabad with 3 lakhs, Lucknow with 10 lakhs, Kanpur with 4 lakhs. The week 1 range was in the 3.4-4.5 crore range.
But again like Apne, even if not necessarily to the same degree, the film was quite stable in week 2. In Bombay it pulled in 50 lakhs, in Ahmedabad 8.3 lakhs, in Baroda 2.4 lakhs, in Surat 6.6 lakhs, in Pune 6.76 lakhs, in Goa 1.6 lakhs. Delhi dropped more significantly to 22 lakhs.
The week 2 range is 1.75-2.3 crores. The week 2 total is therefore in the 5.15-6.8 crore range. These numbers would have been quite decent or even good for a low budget film but Awarapan was budgeted around 16-18 crores and therefore even with the relatively stable week 2 would have do a lot more to be considered any kind of success. Suffice it to say that because of the low start that does not seem possible at this point and the film would have to be considered a flop.
JBJ followed the trending of titanic drops revealed in week 2. The individual numbers would not serve more than an academic interest at this point. In terms of a total, the film probably put up a crore in both weeks combined. The overall total for the film does not exceed 26-27 crores and it’s a colossal disaster. The dramatic way in which this film has been rejected can be measured by the fact that the first week number was in the vicinity of 20 crores, and this itself was respectable because of good opening weekend numbers. But beyond this the film added really negligible amounts.
There Are 7 Responses So Far. »
Post a Response
You must be logged in to post a comment.




Comment by akshay shah on 17 July 2007:
Thought provokingly written as always Sattubhai!
A.Shah
Comment by jayshah on 17 July 2007:
Interesting read. The first method gives extra-ordinary trending (using old numbers) and the second gives pretty good trending too. I would hazard a guess that the updated numbers match more with the Week 2 data in terms of trending, its hard to believe that AKS is so stable which is what scenario 1 suggests, but confirmation will come soon enough
On JBJ, its made 75% of its total gross in Week 1. Astonishing. MP/KANK made 60% of there Total gross in Week 1 so for sure JBJ is a monumental disaster, probably not seen before and possibly very hard to repeat !
Comment by satyam on 17 July 2007:
Jay: Agreed on all counts.
Comment by rks on 17 July 2007:
Read:AKS commentary
http://hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=9c59a0a3-1a90-488e-bad3-b5c7e6e9cf52
Comment by satyam on 18 July 2007:
Thanks for this Rks. I was also led to believe that AKS did have a fall after the initial.
Pingback by baskya.com » Blog Archive » Rahul Sugandh promises new movie with even more Deols on 23 July 2007:
[...] the average performance of the multi-Deol starrer Apne at the box office, producer Rahul Sugandh has done a [...]
Pingback by Rahul Sugandh promises new movie with even more Deols on 25 July 2007:
[...] the average performance of the multi-Deol starrer Apne at the box office, producer Rahul Sugandh has done a [...]