AKS BO Numbers
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July 11th, 2007

Something indeed is very fishy about the numbers for AKS, a conspiracy theory ? An X File ?

Lets start from the Beginning – Saturday 8th July 2007

IndiaFm reveals its numbers

Mumbai 10,700,613
Ahmedabad 4,473,688
Baroda 383,864
Himmatnagar 268,608
Jamnagar 382,279
Bhavnagar 524,455
Pune 282,202
Goa 215,793
Nasik 209,604
Delhi 8,869,335
Noida 643,508
Kaushambi 184,824
Gurgaon 839,461
Ghaziabad 894,627
Faridabad 773,926
Agra 515,000
Aligarh 565,700
Allahabad 218,789
Dehradun 399,224
Bareilly 200,759
Varanasi 736,598
Nagpur 338,964
Indore 267,161
Chandrapur 212,431
Raipur 352,331
Ujjain 160,000
Jaipur 421,456
Kota 171,113
Kolkatta 713,968
Darjeeling 44,391
Bangalore 377,809

31 Centres
Total = 35,342,481Cr

Conclusion – Well from these numbers its clear 10-11Cr is not possible. In fact Tango himself claimed yesterday he would have predicted 10Cr from the NEW numbers. And I agree.
From the OLD numbers my prediction stands at 6.0-7.0Cr – I can’t see how anyone can truly disagree with that. Why ?

Well lets look at the NEW numbers

Tuesday 10th July – Indiafm reveals NEW numbers for AKS

Mumbai 13,929,838
Ahmedabad 3,106,146
Baroda 1,262,400
Himmatnagar 349,190
Jamnagar 433,814
Bhavnagar 693,664
Pune 2,672,136
Goa 474,041
Nasik 977,379
Delhi 16,678,213
Faridabad 1,005,992
Agra 986,094
Aligarh 904,176
Allahabad 261,537
Dehradun 327,222
Bareilly 304,687
Varanasi 900,610
Nagpur 1,434,604
Indore 1,807,532
Chandrapur 276,157
Raipur 458,028
Ujjain 166,293
Jaipur 2,498,858
Kota 222,185
Kolkatta 2,203,202
Darjeeling 57,709
Bangalore 1,999,091

27 Centres – Note Delhi is much bigger and ‘likely’ to include Noida, Kaushambi, Gurgaon and Ghaziabad.
Total = 56,390,798Cr

In addition a number of other centres were reported and they can be found on the website or the post yesterday. The TOTAL from reported centres is 9.1Cr – hence a 10Cr total very likely.

The analysis at this point is, based on the new numbers my revised AKS total would be (56,390,798/35,342,481) = 1.6 * (6.0 – 7.0 ) = 9.6 – 11.2Cr i.e. the new data is approx 60% bigger than the old data.

So at this point in time, every single number has changed – why we don’t know, but lets say for argument sake the new numbers are correct – I get a total matching BOI of 10Cr

Wednesday 11th July – Tango’s BO report at www.glamsham.com

Here Tango has a total of 11Cr. Fair enough. But lets look at his numbers from any centres that are repeated above for like for like comparison

Mumbai 9,700,000
Ahmedabad 4,750,000
Himmatnagar 270,000
Jamnagar 335,000
Bhavnagar 640,000
Nasik 340,000
Delhi 9,250,000
Noida 643,000
Gurgaon 840,000
Ghaziabad 1,000,000
Faridabad 775,000
Agra 515,000
Bareilly 200,000
Varanasi 736,000
Nagpur 1,100,000
Indore 860,000
Jaipur 1,965,000
Kolkatta 3,100,000

Total = 37,019,000Cr

Now from these same centres (only these, critical to compare apples to apples)
OLD centre total = 31,774,010Cr
NEW centre total = 47,309,823Cr

Tango’s data sits more closely with the OLD numbers. I assume his are FI numbers, but it is only 0.6CR more than Saturday i.e. using his numbers my total would only be 7.2Cr – 8.4Cr – significantly less than 10-11Cr IMO i.e. Tango’s data is only 20% greater than the OLD data and significantly less than the NEW data.

Also using all of Tango’s data we get a total of 4.75Cr in his column. Pune, Goa, Bangalore, Baroda, Kaushambi, Aligarh, Allahbad, Dehradun, Chanrapur, Raipur, Ujjain, Kota, Darjeeling are missing. In fact the centres missing in comparison to the OLD numbers only total up to 36Lakhs from Saturday’s old numbers. Using the new numbers these missing centres would contribute 90Lakhs +. We would in either case only stand at HALFWAY to 11Cr.

Key points
If FI numbers are correct, then how do we get to 10-11Cr ?
If OLD Indiafm numbers are correct, which are similar to Tango’s column (less by 20%) how do we get to 10-11Cr ?
The only scenario I see as 10-11Cr is the NEW IndiaFm numbers, but these are exactly 1Cr ahead of Tango’s numbers on the same reported centres and 1.5Cr ahead of the OLD IndiaFm same reported centres i.e. they don’t match up with Tango’s column – the old one’s appear to more !
OR the vast majority of the NEW numbers are GROSS figures, not NETT, and then I find it impossible that 10-11Cr is possible.

In mathematical sense, all of this does not make sense. In BO sense also there is no logic here either. Because one can see if I use OLD numbers as a base, Tango’s data is greater by 20% or every CR in the old data, gives Tango 1.2Cr. But this factor is not close enough for a total of 11Cr. The factor needs to be 1.6Cr + for this, and that’s 60% greater than the old data !

Or simply put it, if BOI says 11Cr then the old data is 10Cr but the new data (which Tango put up) is something like 14Cr !

Thoughts please ……

Qalander – your essential to deciphering this one, you posting FI data will end this one for sure

There Are 24 Responses So Far. »

  1. Comment by rks on 11 July 2007:

    :) this is a conundrum

    Possible scenarios
    1. Taran’s Old data is good.
    2. Taran’s new data is good.

    If case 1 then he is trying so save his face with new #s for his early prediction about AKS being D2, krrish at some centers.

    If case 2, (which is more serious) then his sources are unreliable. It basically says that we can not take any reported centers at face value for other movies.

  2. Comment by jayshah on 11 July 2007:

    Case 2 - FI appears to have similar data in a lot of centres like old data :-) i.e. Tango’s column only varies by 0.5Cr and 0.38Cr of that is driven by Kolkatta and Jaipur alone. So there is not a lot of variation there. In the other post Tango says ‘why wait for FI information when it will be the same as Saturday data + some new centres’.

  3. Comment by Rocky on 11 July 2007:

    Golmaal hai bhai sab Golmaal Hai !!!!!
    Jay you should get into Forensic Accounting !!!

  4. Pingback by On Taran's Updated AKS Numbers on 11 July 2007:

    [...] response to Jay’s post is detailed enough that I’m putting it up [...]

  5. Comment by rks on 11 July 2007:

    That is a good job name for Auditors :)

  6. Comment by satyam on 11 July 2007:

    My response here:

    http://www.naachgaana.com/2007/07/11/on-tarans-updated-aks-numbers/

  7. Comment by Rocky on 11 July 2007:

    That is a good job name for Auditors

    Actually Nowdays there is a specialised Branch for Fraud Examiners and Forensic Accountants. Auditors are busy figuring out the Sarbans-Oxley Juggernut!!!

  8. Comment by Ravi on 11 July 2007:

    I find a disturbing trend here, looks like the media is able to make a movie a hit or a flop based on what they have done to JBJ, AKS and Apne from day one, whatever the merits/demerits of the movie might be.

    I hope that is not the case but looks like movie going people are getting dependent on these channels and the analysts opinions about a movie doing good or bad.

  9. Comment by rks on 11 July 2007:

    “Sarbans-Oxley”
    :)

  10. Comment by Rocky on 11 July 2007:

    You make a very Valid Point Ravi !!

  11. Comment by Qalandar on 11 July 2007:

    Jay: will be glad to put up FI numbers, but you all will have to wait; because it is mailed from India I am always going to be 1-2 weeks behind (later this week I will be getting the issue corresponding to JBJ week 2 figures, and AkS week 1 figures only a week after that!

  12. Comment by Jesse on 11 July 2007:

    Thanks Jay for this report. Looking forward to you working with FI’s numbers for AKS soon.

  13. Comment by jayshah on 11 July 2007:

    ‘“Sarbans-Oxley”’

    rks - those two words don’t give them to me please. I’ve done a heap of Sarbanes Oxley test work and it brings back bad memories. :-)

    Anyhow, following up on Satyam’s post, I am sticking to the old numbers and a 6-7Cr total until we get FI info to see what they have.

    Forensic Accounting is interesting enough, I was interested for a while but choose a different route :-)

  14. Comment by rks on 11 July 2007:

    JS:”those two words don’t give them to me please.”
    Not my field. I just know that they are Senators who sponsored the act in wake of Enron and other accounting scandals.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarbanes-Oxley_Act

    “I am sticking to the old numbers and a 6-7Cr total until we get FI info to see what they have. ”
    Totally valid.

  15. Comment by joginder on 11 July 2007:

    Hey, nice to hear Sox on this forum. Maan, it’s a pain. I am in Quality too in the IT company I work with btw. :-)

  16. Comment by jayshah on 11 July 2007:

    Joginder I do feel for you then :-) Its a big pain especially where I work aswell ! A big cost aswell !

  17. Comment by joginder on 11 July 2007:

    Big time…and we have an audit due in August…pata nahi us time what would happen to my Bollywood stuff :-) I am ready to skip Sox for RGV Ki Aag! :-)

  18. Comment by jayshah on 11 July 2007:

    Yep the cycle is usually in July-Dec timeframe.

    Skip sox for RGV ? By the sheer negativity toward the film, you’d be making a bad swap there :-)

  19. Comment by Rocky on 11 July 2007:

    Joginder LOL !!!

  20. Comment by joginder on 11 July 2007:

    Come on Jayshah, I am pretty sure that the world will walk over to catch ‘Aag’! Negativity or by the virtue of being virtue, the film will get a very good opening! :-)

  21. Comment by satyam on 11 July 2007:

    Of course I put up that post in the interests of illustrating certain practices. Whether AKS made 7 crores or 10 doesn’t change the criticism that the media hyped this beyond all measure. And the results indicate the hype to be not just exaggeration but a lie!

    And Tango has accepted in his post that he’s used FI numbers!

  22. Comment by jayshah on 11 July 2007:

    Joginder - I am one that will watch it for sure. Am interested and hyped :-)

  23. Comment by akshay shah on 11 July 2007:

    BRING ON RGV KE AAG and bring on BABBAN SINGH:)

  24. Pingback by The AKS Media Scam, Apne Off to a Poor Start then Stabilizes, Awarapan does the Same on a Lesser Level on 16 July 2007:

    [...] Aks I cannot really add anything to the discussion here except to suggest that the air has not been cleared with the week 2 numbers. Yet a bit remains to [...]

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