48
Note all numbers are from Trade Guide
Reporting Methodology
1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be either one’s I have computed or a BOI gross or a gross from Joginder’s column (hope Joginder doesn’t mind)
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
New Releases
Three new releases and a long report today. A lot has been reported about the opening of Apne, Aap Ka Saroor and Awaarapan and the numbers show a disconnect between reporting and actuals. AKS’s numbers are the most surprising of the new releases because the expectation was for some big numbers. Rumours of records being broken, openings as big as D2/Krrish have been thrown around – yet the first week numbers possibly wouldn’t even match the ‘first day’ billing of D2 !
Apne is the most disappointing opener of the three. More would have been expected from a Deol Dhamaka.
Awaarapan drew the wooden spoon during the week but in the end all three have suffered from opening in the same week.
Apne
I have ran a series of models for Apne because it is a tricky proposition due to a reported big print count. I have compared it vs 5 films in total. The first three are SLBB, FnF & Cheeni Kum and then I have used a sanity check vs JBJ/NL.
1. Apne Week 1 vs SLBB Week 1
Mumbai 31% means that Apne is 31% MORE than SLBB in Mumbai
Mumbai 31%
Baroda 45%
Jamnagar 16%
Bhavnagar 47%
Pune 3%
Goa 8%
Delhi 50%
Ghaziabad 56%
Faridabad 47%
Allahabad 40%
Bareilly 62%
Nagpur 49%
Indore -5%
Raipur 52%
Ujjain 66%
Jaipur 87%
Kota 55%
Kolkatta 51%
Darjeeling -7%
Bangalore -29%
Apne leads in 17 centres
SLBB leads in 3 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Apne = 3.40Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for SLBB = 2.03Cr
This means that Apne is 167% of SLBB’s total (3.40/2.03 = 167%)
Using my own SLBB Week 1 total of 4.7-5.3Cr, the Apne Week 1 = 167% * (4.7-5.3) = 7.9Cr-8.9Cr
2. Apne Week 1 vs FnF Week 1
Mumbai 9% means that Apne is 9% MORE than FnF in Mumbai
Mumbai 9%
Ahmedabad -37%
Baroda -139%
Jamnagar -126%
Bhavnagar -31%
Pune -81%
Delhi 43%
Noida 22%
Kaushambi 37%
Gurgaon 80%
Faridabad -5%
Agra 26%
Nagpur -115%
Indore -328%
Raipur -26%
Ujjain 23%
Jaipur 31%
Kota 24%
Kolkatta 50%
Darjeeling -34%
Bangalore 3%
Apne leads in 11 centres
FnF leads in 10 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Apne = 4.28Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for FnF = 3.83Cr
This means that Apne is 112% of Fnf’s total (4.28/3.83 = 112%)
Using my own FnF Week 1 total of 7.0-8.0Cr, the Apne Week 1 = 112% * (7.0-8.0) = 7.8Cr-8.9Cr
3. Apne Week 1 vs CK Week 1
Mumbai -41% means that Apne is 41% LESS than CK in Mumbai
Mumbai -41%
Ahmedabad 32%
Himmatnagar 76%
Bhavnagar 55%
Nasik -42%
Delhi 26%
Noida -43%
Kaushambi 28%
Gurgaon -34%
Faridabad 18%
Agra 81%
Dehradun 66%
Indore -118%
Raipur 53%
Apne leads in 9 centres
CK leads in 5 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Apne = 3.84Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for CK = 3.98Cr
This means that Apne is 97% of CK’s total (3.84/3.98 = 97%)
Using my own CK Week 1 total of 8.0-9.0Cr, the Apne Week 1 = 97% * (8.0-9.0) = 7.7Cr-8.7Cr
At this point my inclination is an 8.0-9.0Cr opening. I’ve used different types of releases here…FnF released on a fairly big print count vs CK which released on smaller number of prints. As a ‘sense’ check, I have compared vs NL and JBJ (I don’t approve of this generally because these opened much bigger then Apne BUT NL prospered in the North and JBJ had a Deol in the cast)
4. Apne Week 1 vs NL Week 1
Mumbai -58% means that Apne is 58% LESS than NL in Mumbai
Mumbai -58%
Ahmedabad -33%
Baroda -208%
Jamnagar -161%
Bhavnagar -76%
Pune -340%
Goa -81%
Nasik 54%
Delhi -76%
Noida -125%
Kaushambi -98%
Gurgaon -65%
Faridabad -96%
Agra 11%
Allahabad -14%
Bareilly -27%
Nagpur -96%
Indore -392%
Raipur -32%
Jaipur 65%
Kota 11%
Kolkatta -7%
Darjeeling -35%
Bangalore -101%
Apne leads in 4 centres
NL leads in 20 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Apne = 4.35Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for NL = 7.07Cr
This means that Apne is 61% of NL’s total (4.35/7.07 = 61%)
Using my own NL Week 1 total of 15.0Cr, the Apne Week 1 = 61% * (15.0) = 9.2Cr
This possibly means the total could exceed 9Cr but it is there or thereabouts at the higher end of my range.
5. Apne Week 1 vs JBJ Week 1
Mumbai -159% means that Apne is 159% LESS than JBJ in Mumbai
Mumbai -159%
Ahmedabad -84%
Himmatnagar -27%
Jamnagar -157%
Bhavnagar -16%
Nasik -251%
Delhi -112%
Noida -163%
Kaushambi -74%
Gurgaon -109%
Ghaziabad -1193%
Faridabad -108%
Agra 21%
Allahabad -33%
Bareilly -58%
Varanasi -112%
Guwahati -15%
Indore -304%
Raipur -42%
Ujjain 8%
Apne leads in 2 centres
JBJ leads in 18 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Apne = 3.98Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for JBJ = 9.29Cr
This means that Apne is 43% of JBJ’s total (3.98/9.29 = 43%)
Using my own JBJ Week 1 total of 19.0Cr-20.0Cr, the Apne Week 1 = 43% * (19.0-20.0) = 8.1Cr-8.6Cr
Conclusion – Apne for me has opened in the 8.0-9.0Cr range. Its possible the total could be a tad bit more but every example above point to this range.
Apne 1 Week Total = 8.0-9.0Cr(Week 1)
Verdict – Apne’s opening is disappointing. One would have expected a lot more even with competition because this one has been promoted as a ‘special’ or ‘event’ type film. Despite this, the true verdict on Apne remains to be seen. It’s possible it is a slow starter and may sustain well in the long run and have a positive verdict in the end. Remains to be seen.
Aap Ka Saroor
I have compared AKS against three releases – SLBB, Nishabd and Good Boy Bad Boy.
1. AKS Week 1 vs SLBB Week 1
Mumbai 3% means that AKS is 3% MORE than SLBB in Mumbai
Mumbai 3%
Baroda 18%
Jamnagar 56%
Bhavnagar 64%
Pune -30%
Goa 4%
Delhi 37%
Ghaziabad 82%
Faridabad 37%
Allahabad 53%
Bareilly 68%
Nagpur 40%
Indore 24%
Raipur 63%
Ujjain 72%
Jaipur 67%
Kota 6%
Kolkatta -11%
Darjeeling -86%
Bangalore -33%
AKS leads in 16 centres
SLBB leads in 4 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for AKS = 2.63Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for SLBB = 2.03Cr
This means that AKS is 129% of SLBB’s total (2.63/2.03 = 129%)
Using my own SLBB Week 1 total of 4.7Cr-5.3Cr, the AKS Week 1 = 129% * (4.7-5.3) = 6.1Cr-6.9Cr
2. AKS Week 1 vs Nishabd Week 1
Mumbai 9% means that AKS is 9% MORE than Nishabd in Mumbai
Mumbai 9%
Ahmedabad 40%
Baroda -9%
Jamnagar 55%
Bhavnagar 75%
Pune -44%
Goa -27%
Delhi 23%
Noida -66%
Kaushambi 8%
Gurgaon -40%
Ghaziabad 96%
Faridabad 48%
Agra 57%
Allahabad 65%
Dehradun 77%
Nagpur 32%
Indore 53%
Raipur 73%
Jaipur 78%
Kota 41%
Kolkatta -97%
Bangalore -61%
AKS leads in 16 centres
Nishabd leads in 7 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for AKS = 3.29Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Nishabd = 2.65Cr
This means that AKS is 124% of Nishabd’s total (3.29/2.65 = 124%)
Using my own Nishabd Week 1 total of 4.5Cr-5.4Cr, the AKS Week 1 = 124% * (4.5-5.4) = 5.6Cr-6.7Cr
3. AKS Week 1 vs GBBB Week 1
Mumbai 29% means that AKS is 29% MORE than GBBB in Mumbai
Mumbai 29%
Ahmedabad 43%
Baroda -144%
Himmatnagar 23%
Jamnagar 78%
Bhavnagar 57%
Pune -449%
Goa -57%
Nasik -82%
Delhi 52%
Noida 40%
Kaushambi 51%
Gurgaon 37%
Ghaziabad 79%
Faridabad 45%
Agra 39%
Allahabad 52%
Nagpur 39%
Indore 7%
Raipur 39%
Jaipur 22%
Kota -12%
Kolkatta -18%
Bangalore 44%
AKS leads in 18 centres
GBBB leads in 6 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for AKS = 3.30Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for GBBB = 2.24Cr
This means that AKS is 147% of GBBB’s total (3.30/2.24 = 147%)
Using my own GBBB Week 1 total of 3.8Cr-4.3Cr, the AKS Week 1 = 147% * (3.8-4.3) = 5.6Cr-6.3Cr
Conclusion – Based on these three scenario’s AKS’s opening is 6.0-7.0Cr (I am just rounding to make the numbers easier to use)
AKS 1 Week Total = 6.0-7.0Cr(Week 1)
Verdict – Theories of a hurricane like Week 1 Total can be banished. All set and done, AKS has done the type of business one would have expected before its release. The reporting has flattered to deceive, however if the reporting had any meaningful honesty then AKS will be a flop. Because if a movie opens so big and posts these numbers then the drop must have already occurred very early on and the tumble has set in. Week 2 should clear up the reporting on the movie, but in all the numbers have disappointed in ‘connection’ with reporting but the numbers are ‘fair’ at best in totality.
Awaarapan
I have compared Awaarapan against two releases – SLBB and Nishabd
1. Awaarapan Week 1 vs SLBB Week 1
Mumbai -24% means that Awaarapan is 24% LESS than SLBB in Mumbai
Mumbai -24%
Baroda 35%
Jamnagar -145%
Pune 82%
Goa 43%
Delhi -3%
Ghaziabad 87%
Allahabad -26%
Nagpur -48%
Indore -91%
Raipur 4%
Jaipur 26%
Kota 12%
Kolkatta 23%
Darjeeling -24%
Aurangabad 35%
Bangalore -20%
Awaarapan leads in 9 centres
SLBB leads in 8 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Awaarapan = 2.06Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for SLBB = 1.97Cr
This means that Awaarapan is 104% of SLBB’s total (2.06/1.97 = 104%)
Using my own SLBB Week 1 total of 4.7Cr-5.3Cr, the Awaarapan Week 1 = 104% * (4.7-5.3) = 4.9Cr-5.5Cr
2. Awaarapan Week 1 vs Nishabd Week 1
Mumbai -16% means that Awaarapan is 16% LESS than Nishabd in Mumbai
Mumbai -16%
Ahmedabad -53%
Baroda 13%
Jamnagar -150%
Pune 80%
Goa 25%
Delhi -26%
Noida -125%
Ghaziabad 97%
Agra 27%
Allahabad 8%
Dehradun 35%
Nagpur -69%
Indore -19%
Raipur 29%
Jaipur 51%
Kota 44%
Kolkatta -37%
Aurangabad 61%
Bangalore -47%
Awaarapan leads in 11 centres
Nishabd leads in 9 centres
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Awaarapan = 2.32Cr
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Nishabd = 2.48Cr
This means that Awaarapan is 94% of Nishabd’s total (2.32/2.48 = 94%)
Using my own Nishabd Week 1 total of 4.5Cr-5.4Cr, the Awaarapan Week 1 = 94% * (4.5-5.4) = 4.2Cr-5.1Cr
Conclusion – Based on these two scenario’s Awaarapan’s opening about 5.0Cr
Awaarapan 1 Week Total = 5.0Cr(Week 1)
Verdict – Awaarapan has suffered hugely by releasing against two other movies. Apne was always perceived as the bigger of the three releases and AKS had a curiosity factor. There was always going to be a real loser and it is Awaarapan. The opening is very poor especially considering this is fairly significant movie for the production house.
From the Past
Jhoom Barabar Jhoom
No extensive analysis is needed here, it appears JBJ has grossed a meagre 0.7Cr in Week 3 – a drop of 85% on Week 2 (Week 2 fall was 75%)
JBJ 3 Week Total = 19.0-20.0Cr(Week 1) + 4.8-5.0(Week 2) + 0.7Cr(Week 3) = 24.5Cr – 25.8Cr
Verdict – Outright flop – the trending is the worst witnessed for any biggie certainly in the last 2-3 years. Both MP and KANK sustained better in a relative sense, SEI still did some business in Week 3 of about 2Cr and Eklavya too did the same as JBJ in Week 3 but it started from a lower opening week gross. In all JBJ is a tank of the highest magnitude witnessed so far.
Extras
Three releases gives me an opportunity to compare the three against EACH other. I looked at all three releases vs each other and tallied the totals up on centres which are reported for all three films.
From 23 Centres the following are the totals
Apne = 4.13Cr
AKS = 3.19Cr
Awaarapan = 2.37Cr
Now using Apne as the benchmark i.e. its total as 8.0-9.0, I get AKS’s final total as 6.2-6.9Cr and Awaarapan’s final total as 4.6-5.2Cr i.e. given that my Apne total is ‘right’, the AKS and Awaarapan totals fall perfectly into my ranges. Another ‘sense’ check that on the surface appears to have worked.
Summary of the past week
In all disappointment all around this week. The reporting on AKS has flattered to deceive and the opening was fair at best. Apne hasn’t opened as expected and it remains to be seen whether this one can put up some sort of fight at the BO. Awaarapan struggled the most and would appear to be the outright loser.
2007 – Breakdown of my analysis and classifications thus far
January
Guru : 48.3 – 50.0Cr (SuperHit) – 10 Week Total
Salaam-E-Ishq : 21 – 22Cr (Flop) – 3 Week Total
February
Eklavya : 20 – 21Cr (Flop) – 3 Week Total
HTPL : 14.4 – 15.4Cr (Semi Hit in medium budget group) – 5 Week Total
March
Nishabd : 6 – 7Cr (Flop) – 3 Week Total
Namastey London : 32.6 – 37.3Cr (Hit) – 6 Week Total
April
SLBB : 5.4 – 6.1Cr (Flop) – 2 Week Total
Big Brother : 4.1 – 4.4Cr (Flop) – 2 Week Total
Bheja Fry : 10.6 – 12.6Cr (‘niche’ Hit) – 6 Week Total
May
TRRP : 36.6 – 39.0Cr (Hit) – 6 Week Total
GBBB : 5.2 – 5.9Cr (Flop) – 2 Week Total
Metro : 14.4 – 14.9Cr (Hit in medium budget group) – 4 Week Total
SOAL : 28.7 – 30.5Cr (Semi Hit) – 5 Week Total
CK : 18.9 – 21.2Cr (Hit in medium budget group) – 5 Week Total
June
FnF : 10.0 – 11.5Cr (Flop) – 2 Week Total
JBJ : 24.5-25.8Cr (Flop) – 3 Week Total
Apne : 8.0-9.0Cr (disappointing opening)
AKS : 6.0-7.0Cr (fair opening)
Awaarapan : 5.0Cr (poor opening)
Apologies for what is a very long column 
There Are 48 Responses So Far. »
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Only thing SIK beat Rab ne was the 3 day Weekend,
28 cr vs 25 cr.
Hype for SIK was really ...
I see them every year in Manali.
But recently a few have re-appeared in my town. 
Housefull ATTBB,
BOI claimed 43 cr for SIK and 45 cr for RNBDJ..Then they cgnaged it to 39 cr for SIK ...
stop joking ihab.BOI said 43.77 crores for sik and 42 crores for rnbdj.Then they changed all the numbers.This was discussed ...
This year Akshay will give a reply to his distractors. While Karan's friends have started deserting his camp (Read Farha ...
Ihab
its ok.i did not find lakshya engaging enough.i liked it in parts.It was too slow and boring in second half. 
" Ihab,since you like Hrithik, would you like to elaborate on you watching Krrish 16 times in Theatres . "
Lol, ...
From being most common bird to their total disappearance from cities within a very short span of time (last 10-15 ...
what i comment about is my prerogative manoj - whether it disturbs you or not isnt my concern :-) 
jayshah 7 July 2007
04:18:49 am
Guys I am finding this report very hard to follow and I’m the one writing it … hard to follow in the sense there’s formatting needed to just break the various pieces up.
Any suggestions ? Or if those who follow it are ok then I will leave it like it is.
sandy 7 July 2007
04:38:54 am
No Jay, this is making perfect sense to me. Thanks for the wonderful analysis.
akshay shah 7 July 2007
04:46:25 am
Jay leave it as it is! I actually like reading it right from the start till the very end! It’s truly a fantastic column!
A.Shah
jayshah 7 July 2007
04:59:00 am
Ok will do, I hope producers don’t release 3 films ever again on the sameday cos this is longggg
rajen 7 July 2007
05:55:43 am
Wow.Greta analysis Jay.Ned to get paid for such ardrous work.
The media hype was such bullshit.APNE and AKS are so disappointing.Talking about shattering D2 and Krrish reocrds.
Taran and rest of jerks should commit suicide.
Himesh better stick to music and singing.
satyam 7 July 2007
06:05:15 am
Jay: Perfect reporting as always!
I agree with everything Rajen says. AKS has made exactly as much in Bombay as UJ did! Apne has done a little less than Honeymoon Travels. The Delhi numbers are equally poor.
This is not just spin on the part of the media but blatant lying!
jayshah 7 July 2007
06:18:17 am
I’m pretty shocked at the reporting – the media have made something out of AKS that is very unnecessary yet at the sametime they insist TRRP is a flop film.
And the problem here is there are many sources which have said AKS had an extra-ordinary opening…..but they should really reveal where they are getting this info from because it’s a snowball affect in the media. When one media outlet does it, another ones copies that one and so on.
It is practically a blatant lie – and the only other plausible reasoning is the print count for AKS was very low but then how can it ever have an earth shattering opening. Plus the print average is low anyway !
Paddy 7 July 2007
06:23:36 am
Great Article..
Made perfect sense!
jayshah 7 July 2007
06:33:59 am
And the disgusting thing about this is (barring a possible great run at the BO), if AKS does indeed tank in the second week…its a guarantee some media will still report it as a HIT !
Achilles 7 July 2007
06:38:30 am
AKS is sold at low prices … n will be a earner … if it earns enuf then it may still be a hit … but i thot it wont earn anything at all
jayshah 7 July 2007
06:45:38 am
How much is AKS sold for ?
Tango 7 July 2007
06:52:13 am
Thanks Jayshah for all the hard work. Much appreciated.
AKS has been sold at a ratio of 1.50 -1.60 crores in Bombay and 1.25 in Delhi -UP.
The all-India selling price will come out to be around 6.5 crores( inclusive of price of print and publicity) so by the method I use it shouls get to around 13 crores to be called a clean hit that is 200% of 6.5.
Obviously , Komal and BOI use 200 % of distributors share so they will be harsher.
Achilles 7 July 2007
06:53:57 am
m not sure of the exact selling price … but many reports indicated its quite low … so that mite be another excuse for the AKS euphoria … but i guess it was mainly the snowball effect of taran’s first update among the media … anyways, AKS reporting was ridiculous .. but i guess it may still be a hit
kmkm13 7 July 2007
07:16:03 am
“Himesh better stick to music and singing.”Even there he’s no good Rajen.
kmkm13 7 July 2007
07:20:52 am
Great Work here Jay ..Agreed you should be paid.
Plus Director of Himmesh bajaniya’s Aks says film is only for Himmesh’s Fans..(Rare Specimens, poor souls) not for other (we”re fine without it,thanks)
jayshah 7 July 2007
07:27:14 am
So by that kmkm13, I gather you won’t be watching this one then ?
jayshah 7 July 2007
07:28:25 am
Himesh actually said he is quitting music for acting….I hope that wasn’t because of the media euphoria for the movie….
Tango 7 July 2007
07:30:03 am
kmkm 13 watch AKS on DVD, the pirates(good quality ).
I have one and will try and catch it tonight if I get the time.
rajen 7 July 2007
07:47:58 am
One question boggles me.Apparently AKS was made at a budget ogf 50 crores as per some reports.Now how is it sold for 4-6 crores.Is the rest hidden underneath Himesh’s cap?I mean no amount ogf music/DVD rights is going to make up the difference.
jayshah 7 July 2007
07:49:49 am
‘.Now how is it sold for 4-6 crores.Is the rest hidden underneath Himesh’s cap?!’
Wait for the sequel to find out !
kmkm13 7 July 2007
08:01:52 am
RE:”So by that kmkm13, I gather you won’t be watching this one then ?”Nope Jay you guessed right i just don’t like this guy he irritates me..
Well Tango i’ve just bought some dvds..Apne is available (will take it if good copy)didn’t ask for AKS, must be available..Like Yaday says in KHNH Piracy zindabad!Lol..Hope Yash uncle is not listening though..
Qalandar 7 July 2007
08:04:35 am
I always said that 40-50 crore budget figure was BS. It’s the trend where for every film people throw around a crap figure like that (the very first one for AkS had said 100 crores).
Awesome column Jay. Indeed like satyam, aamirsfan and others have said, this is a true instance of media lies. Taran’s reporting on AkS, BOI’s on Apne, are outright laughable.
Jesse 7 July 2007
09:44:37 am
Big column this week. Thanks for all the effort Jay, it’s top notch like usual. I still can’t believe how the media treated these three films.
By the way, what’s up with BOI and Sunny Deol films? First FnF and now Apne! They really like to overestimate when it comes to Sunny.
Ravi 7 July 2007
09:59:38 am
Great job Jay, as usual.
Pranav 7 July 2007
10:05:12 am
Jay Shah, very lucid analysis. Just one query…dont you agree Nishabdh and AKS have very different audiences and hence the collections pattern would have been diff? just food for thought. overall the numbers that you conclude are very reasonable. you are the voice of Indian BO.
jayshah 7 July 2007
10:12:38 am
‘dont you agree Nishabdh and AKS have very different audiences and hence the collections pattern would have been diff?’
Thats true of course. I guess I look for similar films when possible – usually all the small budget/medium budget films target multiplex audiences ala Honeymoon Travels, Metro, Nishabd so I lack examples of massy small films with 5-10Cr grosses to compare with. But then again of the 23 odd centres, AKS is ahead of Nishabd by 30-70% which in a sense is a consistent model.
SLBB is a much model which is easily illustrated above.
Qalandar 7 July 2007
10:21:05 am
Only thing I will say in favor of AkS is that if the reports are to be believed (and as we have learned from media reporting over the last week, that is a very big “if” indeed), AkS is primarily a small center/single screen film. If that’s true, then its gross might well obscure a rather high number of ticket sales. Given the crazy multiplex prices, at 8-9 crores it might easily have sold more tickets than the 14-16 week 1 for Eklavya. And as it is there can be little doubt that it has sold way more tickets than Metro, Nishabd, etc. And that might help explain public perception that the movie has taken a big opening. That doesn’t excuse the media and the likes of Aditya Narayan and Taran Adarsh, since no-one ever made the “no. of tickets” point (except right here on NG, for which we can take a bow) for other films (e.g. Akshay Kumar’s Dharshan films, etc.), but it would go a long way toward explaining public perception.
jayshah 7 July 2007
10:26:56 am
On IBOS (just as an indicator) the % for AKS to nett gross of total gross is 60%
For a multiplex centric film like JBJ its 67%
So possibily it is more geared towards single screens in a relative sense than JBJ, but it doesn’t appear to be so by huge margins.
Its a cryptic puzzle…
jayshah 7 July 2007
10:36:39 am
Anyhow agree Q – its about consistency and they have kind of made AKS an exception to the rule.
Street Pharmacist 7 July 2007
10:47:09 am
Movies like CK, FNF and Nishabd are used to derive totals for Apne and AKS. wow!!! Height of ignorance.
To make it worse, the numbers for those movies are hiw own totals.. which GOD knows how he derived to begin with. Sanity check!
Does it surprise you that the NL model gives you the highest total for Apne??
And no.. I ain’t no Deol fan.
rks 7 July 2007
01:08:50 pm
Good JS.
For formatting – Use different text to show different portions. Like verdict in italics. People who do not want to go through numbers can directly jump to verdict.
Tango 7 July 2007
01:17:55 pm
Talking about another thing. We are lead to believe that the whole media was out to make Apne a blockbuster hit, though I don’t think any of the renowed/reputed sources said anything of that sort. In fact there are attempts to take the attention away from AKS that can be accused of bein overhyped by all.
Must ad that a few( just a few) NG members did point to that .
Plus IBOS must be the only source that decided to call it a flop( though realising their stupidity they changed it like countless other numbers and flashes) as soon as its first week was out. And that when there is pick up reported.
rks 7 July 2007
01:18:30 pm
JS: Any more north centric movie comparison for Apne? Say Big brother.
Tango 7 July 2007
01:23:32 pm
rks- check news no. 2
http://www.outlookindia.com/gl.....e=20070716
rks 7 July 2007
08:23:08 pm
Tango:
Mangoes
rks 7 July 2007
09:16:16 pm
Why I give credence to Jay’s BO column.
1. Taran’s data is there and everyone can extrapolate it to get the total(range). There are many people(yours truely included) with Maths background but it needs time and commitment to do it on regular basis.
2. It is done in transparent way. Most of the people understand it.
3. There are flaws. But every statistical method based on sampling has probablity of going wrong.
4. If you have questions you can always ask.
ps: Texas_swat did a excellent analysis on Don which was similar to Jay’s method and people gave thumbs up. It had its flaws but you give other guy a chance for investing so much time.
akshay shah 7 July 2007
09:45:56 pm
What I dont get is..
BEFORE the movie’s release the quoted budget by the media was 65 crores for AKS! The movie has got pretty low collections, though compared to the selling price(which im assuming is pretty low) the movie is making money? Furthermore, the movie’s foothold is the Single screens and masses?? SO HOW DOES THIS CRORE BUDGETTED MOVIE BECOME A HUGE HIT?
A.Shah
akshay shah 7 July 2007
09:53:22 pm
BTW Jay: Just wanted to let you know yours is the ONLY INDIAN BO COLUMN THAT MAKES ANY SENSE! You make your methodology clear straight up, and you show all your workings clearly ensuring its easy for anyone to follow.
Just read the post below with SP’s blanket statements, and I must say this is another LOW FOR NG with personal abuses being fired, that kinda stuff HACKS ME RIGHT OFF though Im not surprised given SP is a part of it, i have never come across a more negative or person filled with hatred in my life!
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AND DONT EVER STOP OR ILL KICK YOUR ASS JAY!!!
A.Shah
Qalandar 7 July 2007
10:31:46 pm
Well said rks!
Re: “KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AND DONT EVER STOP OR ILL KICK YOUR ASS JAY!!!”
word.
rks 7 July 2007
11:34:30 pm
Thanks Q. But you said better things in the closed thread.
comment1
texas_swat 7 July 2007
11:40:56 pm
good job JS
abzee 8 July 2007
12:40:28 am
Jay Shah- This is simply the best trade analysis that I’ve read, and given that you are the best in the business, this is an even greater peak for you.
akshay shah 8 July 2007
01:41:36 am
Q: I said that comment not RKS:(:(:(:(!!!!
rks 8 July 2007
02:11:29 am
AS: Read Q’s comment once again. Last word.
jayshah 8 July 2007
10:54:01 am
Thanks to majority of people – obviously I won’t appease everyone so it does help that a fair few follow this otherwise it wouldn’t be worth it.
Tango 8 July 2007
10:58:00 am
Thanks Jayshah. I am quite sure you have read my comment above
“Thanks Jayshah for all the hard work. Much appreciated.
AKS has been sold at a ratio of 1.50 -1.60 crores in Bombay and 1.25 in Delhi -UP.
The all-India selling price will come out to be around 6.5 crores( inclusive of price of print and publicity) so by the method I use it shouls get to around 13 crores to be called a clean hit that is 200% of 6.5.
Obviously , Komal and BOI use 200 % of distributors share so they will be harsher.”
Sid 8 July 2007
07:04:29 pm
Good work Jay – looks like BOI’s total on Aawarapan is going to be similar to yours and Apne and AKS higher than yours.
Its always good to read your post.
AKS – the movie can be summed up in one dialogue in the movie.
Himesh tells a friend “tu meri naak katwayenga”
The friend replies “agar teri naak katgayee toh tu gayenga kaise?”
shetty 8 July 2007
10:42:14 pm
Awesome work JS.