satyam

SOAL by all accounts got off to a flying start. If this is the case the first week numbers already betray signs of a drop. The best models for the comparison are Guru, BB, TRP. The SOAL numbers are truly impressive only in Bombay and Delhi and even here the film is still behind Guru and BB and just about keeps pace with TRP, which itself showed a drop within the first week.

Bombay comes up with 4.21 crores compared to 4.21 crores for BB, 4.44 crores for Guru, 4.37 crores for TRP. Ahmedabad at 95 lakhs compares with 1.12 crores for Guru, 86 lakhs for TRP and 1.2 crores for BB. delhi brings in 1.5 crores as opposed to 2.14 crores for BB, 2.38 crores for TRP, 1.92 crores for Guru. The Delhi environs have 22 lakhs, 4 lakhs, 29 lakhs, 9.3 lakhs for Noida, Kaushambi, Gurgaon, Faridabad respectively. Guru had 36 lakhs, 15 lakhs, 40 lakhs, 15 lakhs for the same centers, TRP had 34 lakhs, 4.4 lakhs, 31 lakhs, 12 lakhs with the last three being incomplete totals, BB had 35 lakhs, 17 lakhs, 37 lakhs, 17.8 lakhs. The UP centers of Agra and Aligarh register 1 lakh and 4.4 lakhs as opposed to 9 lakhs and 6 lakhs for BB, 3.5 lakhs and 4.9 lakhs for TRP, 6.3 lakhs and 4.1 lakhs for Guru. Indore and Ajmer pull in 3.73 lakhs and 5.5 lakhs, BB had 20 lakhs in Indore, TRP had an incomplete total of 6 lakhs for Indore. Guru had 25 lakhs and 3.8 lakhs respectively. Jamnagar, Bhavnagar, Nasik come in with 6.2 lakhs, 7 lakhs, 6 lakhs, Guru had 4.8 lakhs, 5 lakhs, 14.5 lakhs respectively, BB had 7.5 lakhs, 5 lakhs for the first two, TRP had 5.6 lakhs and 5.7 lakhs also for the first two.

It seems clear that SOAL is behind Guru in just about every kind of center, often very significantly so. The same can also be said for BB. With TRP SOAL manages to keep pace and times and is sometimes slightly ahead but overall it’s still quite clear that TRP is more often ahead than not. If one removes Bombay the figures are quite comparable with SeI’s.

The TRP total was around 18-19 crores with the lower end being more likely or perhaps even something slightly less than 18 crores. The reported center total is close to 8 crores on SOAL and this includes major metros like Bombay, Delhi, Ahmedabad. Calcutta, Hyderabad, Bangalore are not available but even doubling this figure would give one only 16 crores. Here Eklavya, TRP, NL are better models because in each case a roughly similar number of centers was available whereas with Guru and BB far more were in evidence. Bangalore was present for TRP and Eklavya though none of the others, Bangalore and Calcutta were available for NL. But these centers were still not big enough for any of these films to distort the comparison with SOAL. The reported center total was 8.21 crores for Eklavya, 7.43 crores for NL, 11.43 crores for TRP. Don and BB had roughly the same number of centers and similar kinds for reported center totals of 14.67 crores and 12.89 crores in each case. Guru had some additional Southern centers and the total was 16.09 crores. The reported center total cannot be simply formulaically expanded into a complete total as many of these above mentioned factors have to be taken into account. Eklavya and NL seem fairer comparisons in this sense keeping in mind the totality of the factors in play.

The range for SOAL therefore seems to be in the 14-16 crore range. This again tallies more or less with the Eklavya and NL week one range in each case. And the higher end of the range comes about by doubling the reported center total more or less much as one could do the same with Eklavya and NL. But a more probable total is perhaps not more than 15 crores for SOAL. Even at 16 crores the numbers are relatively ordinary for a film of this scale and specially given the good (or great) initial. On current trending the film will find it hard to get to 30 crores.

Cheeni Kum meanwhile opened with a small number of prints. The Bombay number is 2.1 crores, Ahmedabad pulled in 38 lakhs, Delhi had 83.6 lakhs with Noida, Kaushambi, Gurgaon, Faridabad bringing in 19 lakhs, 2.3 lakhs, 23 lakhs, 7.65 lakhs, Agra and Indore bring in 1 lakh and 4.2 lakhs.

The film is doing reasonably well or better. The delhi environs for example match SOAL’s totals as does Agra. CK does somewhat better in Indore. Again Calcutta, Bangalore, Hyderabad are not available.

The problem for CK though is that it will have to stay very stable to get to a sizable total from here. It is relatively easy to understand that it is doing quite well relative to print count. otherwise it would not be keeping up with SOAL in these smaller centers. In Bombay/Delhi it does more or less 50% of the SOAL gross. It is hard to tell exactly how good these numbers are without the print count. But in the contemporary market it is hard for even a film with relatively limited release to sustain at the box office and get to a significant total. A Vivah is the exception that proves the rule. And Vivah itself is a historic film running up good numbers even in its 29th week. This is a phenomenon of a kind. Barring this it is hard to think of another example where a film with relatively limited release getting to a relatively big total.

The Cheeni Kum numbers seem most comparable to Metro’s but far more centers were available for the latter. But for the ones that are available Cheeni Kum seems mostly ahead. The probable week 1 range is 7-9 crores. The week 1 range of Metro was initially given at around the same but there was some reason to believe that the 6.25 crore reported center total on the film was mostly complete and therefore a number higher than 7 crores seemed in retrospect unlikely. By analogy Cheeni Kum should not be less than 8 crores. In any case this is a good number for CK given the release but it will also have to stay as stable as Metro to get to 20 crores. The latter figure if achieved would be good for a film of this genre but one ultimately suspects that with just a bit wider release better totals could have been attained all round. Again based on circumstantial evidence the numbers look good but without an adequate sense of the print count it is hard to determine whether these numbers are simply good or even better than this.

Metro shows significant and in some cases huge dips this week which is perhaps to be expected given the presence of two new releases and TRP also occuping screens. Bombay falls from 1.5 crores to 51 lakhs, Ahmedabad goes from 25 lakhs to 8 lakhs, Delhi does better going from 60 lakhs to 29 lakhs, Indore from 6 lakhs from 1.6 lakhs and so on. The South is still stable, Bangalore goes from 24 lakhs to 18 lakhs, Chennai from 5.13 lakhs to 4.7 lakhs, Hyderabad from 12.3 lakhs to 7 lakhs. Similarly most of UP is also quite stable for this film. The smaller centers would in any case be less of an issue if major metros like Bombay/Delhi or even Ahmedabad did not show such damage.

Week 2 on Metro was in the 5-5.5 crore range with a 12-12.5 crore total for the film. This week’s range is 2.1-2.7 crores. The total therefore is 14.1-15.2 crores. At one point 20 crores seemed certain for this film. But the film would once again have to replicate the stability of earlier weeks to get to that gross. The film is of course a hit any which way.

[I thank Jesse for pointing out an error here in the Metro calculation which has now been fixed]

Metro again offers extra commentary in this sense on Cheeni Kum. Because a major release can derail a smaller film at any point and make recovery hard later on.

TRP also follows the Metro pattern. This film was again a picture of stability in recent weeks but once again the new releases have hurt it more than might normally have been the case. Bombay goes from 80 lakhs to 31 lakhs, Ahmedabad from 22 lakhs to 9 lakhs, Delhi from 41 lakhs to 18 lakhs. But once more the smaller centers remain stable. It is quite remarkable to see each week just how well accepted this film has been in the latter and even the presence of new releases has not damaged it in these.

The week 4 number on TRP was in the 3.75-4.75 crore range with the total being 35.75-39.26 crores and 38.25 crore selected as the optimal number. This week the film had added 1.3-2 crores. The total consequently is 37-41.26 crores. The film is probably just a little shy of 40 crores at this point. It qualifies as a hit in any case though with less damage this week it might have gone upto 42-43 crores.