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Interesting smaller center comparison on Guru…

Bhopal goes from 2.86 lakhs in week 1 to 2 lakhs in week 2 (businessofcinema)

Indore goes from 21 lakhs to 12.6 lakhs (businessofcinema)

For Jamnagar businessofcinema have 3.72 lakhs for week 2, they don’t have the week 1 number. Taran does not report Jamnagar for the film at all but his second week Jamnagar number for Krrish is 3.72 lakhs

Taran’s 6 day total for Ghaziabad (week 2) is 9.28 lakhs while his Krrish number is 7.65 lakhs.

Noida has a 22 lakh 6 day total for Guru while krrish had 21 lakhs.

Taran has 60 lakhs for Ahmedabad versus 70 lakhs for Krrish

Even in the major metros Ahmedabad goes from 79 lakhs to 47 lakhs, Delhi from 1.62 lakhs to 1.2 (Taran) or 1.89 lakhs to 1.1 (businessofcinema)

I am not looking at Bangalore and Chennai where it is in any case possibly the strongest ever Hindi release. In many places like Allahabad and Agra and Amritsar the film opened on just one screen. But the percentages were all around 70% for week 1. And in week 2 no center than businessofcinema has reported is less than 60% and most are closer to 70%, some higher.

I have used Krrish because the film was historic in smaller centers. Again Krrish of course had a record print count. The point I’m trying to make is that Guru might possibly be more stable in smaller centers. But in any case looking at a mix here — Bombay, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Hyderabad, Indore, Bhopal, Jamnagar the drop seems to be much smaller in the latter two compared to the first two. Also I am sure that if I did this comparison with other hits from last year the results would be even more favorable.

It’s not that Guru is near Krrish in any sense. But that the latter was historic in small towns and it is because of these that it kept adding even at the end and ultimately went on to make 65-70 crores. Even in the major cities it’s so far not way ahead of Guru. 40 lakhs in Bombay, 10 lakhs in Ahmedabad. The delhi difference is certainly huge. But not so for the Delhi environs. But in general Krrish was definitely very big in Delhi-UP.

For Guru to hold up favorably with Krrish even in some of the smaller centers says a great deal. Again it is too time consuming to do this across films and different sources (because of different centers just about every time or lack of continuity from week to week). But the particular suggest far greater stability than the larger center numbers would have one believe.

Also contrary to what BOI claim I think Guru is proportionately stronger in CPCI than it is in Delhi-UP. Western India in general seems to be the strongest for the film along with Southern India and Bengal.

Again I’m sure that an exhaustive comparison with all the big films of 2006 will reveal more interesting stats as well. The more I look at it the more even the 10.2 crore figure seems a bit low to me. Jay’s 11 crore or maybe a bit higher seems more on the money. So I continue to believe a 2 week total of at least 31 crores.

But what this very rough and random comparison also brings out is the fact that inconsistently reported centers or incomplete totals make it very hard to do the comparison from film to film unless one is willing to look at things with a microscope which is too cumbersome and even then does not yield a totally conclusive result. But a lot more examples could certainly be provided to get some sort of trending sense for the smaller centers.

Of course it remains to be seen whether the film can remain stable at the lower end in many centers (large or small) to keep pushing up that total. This is what turns out to be invariably the case with a lot of films from Krrish to RDB or LRM or even D2 where the lower end weeks are far more stable than one might have initially imagined.

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Satyam

9 COMMENTS
  1. jayshah

    Satyam – I have to say the assumptions I made plus the little analysis I did, I strongly felt 11-13Cr is right. Maybe it is the lower end but I find 10Cr to be low. The problem really is incomplete centres and not enough centres.

  2. satyam

    And I have to say that of all the reporting I’ve seen on this (and the other films you’ve done) I’ve always found you analyses to be the most convincing. Because whether one agrees with your numbers or not I think that your analysis in each case can always be followed in a very coherent fashion. I myself don’t do anything close to the job do you in these matters. Ideally this is the sort of logic all box office sources should exhibit as opposed to asking us to take things on face value.

    If you had 3 or 4 trade guides at your disposal you’d be doing the best box office analysis (on Bollywood) on the planet. I am not exaggerating a bit here.

  3. jayshah

    Lol ! Thats way too much pressure to live upto Satyam. I think most people would do just as good a job if the data is available.

    Again you’ve pointed out quite a few important things on your post; Guru in a number of places is holding 60-70% theatres full, this is damn good for second week surely. Plus I’ve hardly seen many numbers from the South – the conclusion here is surely its a monster there.

    Plus your point about staying stable at the lower end is really important. Whats going to be difficult for Guru is that it doesn’ have the clear run that LRM, RDB enjoyed. But potentially it could do 5Cr, 3Cr, 2Cr, 1.5Cr, 1Cr etc i.e. if it can muster up 12Cr + more from its run it will be a mighty achievement.

    And all I mean indirectly here is a significant HIT would be adding Cr’s in the 4th, 5th, 6th week and so on. It wouldn’t ‘tire’ out so early in its run.

    Plus its quite obvious Guru is going to be a talked about film beyond just these past couple of weeks. Its a ‘significant’ movie both for Abhishek and also assures that he is indeed a star. No doubt about this. Guru could only succeed with a star/actor combo and Abhishek has managed that. I still haven’t met a person who has sad they have not liked this movie !!!

  4. satyam

    Jay, you are surely being too modest. I think many here would second my thoughts here on the quality of your ‘number crunching’.

  5. akshay shah

    I second Satyam here…Jayshah you’re fast becoming a EXTREMELY reliable source for BO facts and figures and you’re number crunching is fun to read for someone like me who detests BO talk

    A.Shah

  6. abid

    Jayshah , you see the smaller centres hardly have any relevance at an all India level now thanks to the multiplexes and the situation will only be worse for these centres and many of the single screens .

    Even in UP , distributors are more than happy if the movie does well in places like Noida , Ghaziabad , Kaushambi , Lucknow , Kanpur , Aligarh , Meerut as there is where the cineplex/multiplexes are .

  7. Qalandar

    I second what abid says, as a matter of gross and money…but as a question of what the public is watching and socially it is a different thing altogether. Guru has performed somewhat better at the smaller centers than I had expected. I was hoping for a strong Bombay performance (it is the biggest and most lucrative territory, and also one that has been a relatively happy hunting ground for Abhishek; even modest successes like Bluffmaster! did disproportionately more business from Bombay, and Sarkar too had a disproportionate % of its gross here, as did Dus)– but I did not expect even half decent numbers in these smaller centers for a Ratnam film, which is a sign that in its way Guru and Abhishek as Guru have struck a chord…

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